NFL Preview: Part Seven

I am a bit behind schedule as far as this preview goes, so I am going to try to play catch-up today. There are also a few subjects that have come up in the past few days that I would like to talk about as well (Stephen Strasburg's innings limit and Mike Golic vs Rick Reilly on Notre Dame football), so today will be a busy day here, and I'll try to get in as much as possible. So stay tuned because a lot is coming!

First off is the next part of my 2012 NFL preview. After writing about mostly mediocre and bad teams, today I'll look at some teams that I think have a good shot at playoff contention. Right now, we are up to the teams that finished in third place in the AFC North and the NFC North. Both of these divisions were tough last year, and they will be again this year, so the third place teams will still be good teams. I'll be talking about the Bengals and the Bears here, and we start off in Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals

2011 was the year of the quarterback, and although Cam Newton was the most talked about rookie at that position, it was Andy Dalton that led his team to the postseason in his first year in the league. Dalton did not put up the numbers that Newton did, and does not play with the same flashy and exciting style, but he got the job done at TCU in college, and he got the job done last season, as he led the Bengals to the playoffs. They lost in Houston and seemed intimidated by the moment, but the simple fact that they were there bodes well for the future.

Non-divisional games: Washington, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, NY Giants, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia

The statistics from last year show a team that was a bit below-average on the offensive side of the ball, but very solid in terms of defense. The offense ranked between 18th and 20th in total yards, scoring, rushing, and passing. While these are definitely not overwhelming numbers, they at least show that the Bengals were consistent and not one-dimensional. The offense was also helped by the fact that the defense was ranked in the top ten in the league in those same categories. So while the Bengals were not a threat to score 30+ points every week, there were not many weeks that they needed to, thanks to a solid defense.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals did lose their starting running back, Cedric Benson, to free agency. Benson was a good runner who stayed healthy and could be counted on by the team. To replace him, they brought in Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis from the Patriots. Green-Ellis is a downgrade here, as he is not the same threat that Benson was, although he is still an above-average back. Bernard Scott is also available, and he has proven that he can produce as a number two option in the backfield. Losing Benson hurts though, and I think that it will put more pressure on Dalton to grow into a better passer in his second year.

What will help Dalton a great deal in improving as a passer is the presence of second year wideout A.J. Green. Green, like Dalton, was a rookie last season, and he seems like he will be a legitimate number one receiver for years to come, and it seems like he was definitely worth the high draft pick that the Bengals spent on him prior to last season. Jermaine Gresham is also a very good tight end, and he seemed to work well with Dalton as well in 2011, and he will be counted on to produce a similar season in 2012. Cincinnati drafted Mohamed Sanu in the third round this year, and they will need him to produce in order to give the Bengals a legitimate third threat in the air and take some pressure off of Dalton.

Left tackle Andrew Whitworth is probably the best player on what is a pretty solid offensive line. Having a player like Whitworth to protect the blindside of a young quarterback really helps. Offensive guard Kevin Zeitler was drafted in the first round out of Wisconsin, a school that is known for producing a lot of good offensive linemen. The line will need to be good this year as they block for a running back that is not as good as the one they had last season.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals do not really have many big name stars, but they performed very well as a unit in 2011. The strength of the group is probably in the middle of the line, as Domata Peko and Geno Atkins are somewhat unknown, but are both very good players. The secondary is also pretty good, and the addition of top pick Dre Kirkpatrick could give the Bengals a good chance to prevent teams from putting up a lot of passing yards against them. If they can get good years from guys like Robert Geathers and Manny Lawson in terms of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, this defense can remain one of the top ten in the league. Cincinnati also drafted Devon Still out of Penn State to add even more depth to a strong defensive line.

The special teams unit is solid, as they have established players all around in Kevin Huber, Mike Nugent, and Brandon Tate.



Best-case scenario: The Bengals come flying out of the gate, Dalton continues to improve, Green becomes a legitimate superstar at wide receiver, Green-Ellis has a big year, the defense not only remains solid but gets better and is able to force more turnovers, and the Bengals surpass either Pittsburgh or Baltimore and make the playoffs.
Worst-case scenario: Dalton suffers a sophomore slump, Green gets little support from the targets around him and is blanketed constantly, the loss of Benson puts even more pressure on Dalton that he cannot handle, the defense takes a step back, and the Bengals finish below .500 due to a tough division and tough schedule.
Realistic prediction: I still do not think that the Bengals are better than the Ravens or Steelers. They went a combined 0-4 against Baltimore and Pittsburgh last year, and really looked flustered in their playoff game against the Texans. They have some nice young players, and a quarterback-wide receiver duo that could be very good for years to come, but I think making the playoffs again is unrealistic. I'm going to say 7-9.

Chicago Bears

This is a team that will be very interesting this year. The Bears seemed to be headed for playoff contention in 2011, but Jay Cutler got hurt, the team went 1-5 in its final six games, and they finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. If Cutler had stayed healthy, a playoff berth would have definitely been within reach, but I'm not sure they could have played more than one game once they got to the postseason.
For the past few years, the Bears offense has been centered around Matt Forte. Jay Cutler is a good quarterback, but he never had any legitimate threats to throw the ball to. That all changed this offseason though, as the Bears made a big splash by bringing in Brandon Marshall to be Cutler's number one target. With Cutler, Forte, and Marshall combining to form what has the potential to be a very good threesome, there are high hopes in Bears country going into 2012.

Non-divisional opponents: Indianapolis, St. Louis, Dallas, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tennessee, Houston, San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona

One look at the numbers from last year and you can see exactly what the Bears were all about. They could run the ball, and they could stop the run. However, they could not throw the ball, and they could not stop the pass. Chicago's biggest problem for the past few years has been protecting Jay Cutler. Cutler has taken a constant beating behind a bad offensive line, and when this was paired with a lack of any kind of outside threats (their best pass catcher was their running back), it makes for a bad passing game. The fact that Mike Martz was calling the plays sure did not help matters either, as he constantly called passes that required the line to give Cutler a lot of time to throw, and that just didn't happen. The addition of Marshall and the new offensive scheme of Mike Tice will likely to combine to lessen the burden on Cutler, and the Bears hope that it can lead to a spot in the postseason.

As I said before, the three stars of this offense are Cutler, Forte, and Marshall. Cutler is a good NFL quarterback, Forte is one of the best (some would say, the best) all-around running back in the league, and Marshall is a legitimate number one receiving threat. The Bears also added wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey in the draft, and if he can turn into a good number two wideout, the Bears passing game will instantly be a lot better.

The success of the offense still hinges on the five guys up front though. Tice's new system will call for a lot of shorter dropbacks for Cutler, and will not emphasize so many plays that require Cutler to be given a lot of time. No matter the playcaller, the line will need to get better or else the Bears still will not be able to prevent guys like Jared Allen, Clay Matthews, and Ndamukong Suh from punishing Cutler again this season.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears are led by future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher and one of the best defensive ends in the NFL, Julius Peppers. The Bears made an intriguing pick in the first round, taking defensive end Shea McClellin from Boise State to play opposite Peppers. If he can develop into a good defensive end, the Bears will be able to put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and in a division in which they will have to keep up with the high-powered offenses in Green Bay and Detroit, that is something that you need to be able to do.

The secondary was the weakness of Chicago's defense last year, and they really didn't do much to replace any of the personnel in that area. Granted, playing against Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford twice last year would cause any secondary to struggle, but the Bears were 28th in defending the pass last season, and they allowed the Seahawks to score 38 points against them at the end of last year, and the 2011 Seahawks were about as far from an aerial juggernaut as you can get. If McClellin can become another legitimate pass rusher to play opposite Peppers, it will cut down on the opportunities that other teams have to throw against their secondary, but they will still need improvement from this group if they want to be a legitimate contender.

Lastly, it would be impossible to talk about the Bears without mentioning their special teams star, Devin Hester. Hester is arguably the best return man in the history of the NFL, and now that he will be able to play a more complementary role on offense instead of having to be a standout wide receiver, I think he will be able to have a great year returning kicks. He ran two punts back for touchdowns last season and averaged a league-best 16.2 yards per punt return, and I would expect nothing less in 2012. He is the definition of a game-changer on special teams, and opposing teams will be holding their collective breaths every time he gets his hands on the ball.
Robbie Gould and Adam Podlesh are also very good at their respective kicker and punter positions, as they are accustomed to kicking in what can often times be sloppy conditions at Soldier Field. This is an elite special teams unit.

Those who believe that this can be a special year in Chicago should only be more encouraged by looking at the schedule. The Bears get to face the NFC West and AFC South, and that means they could go at least 6-2 in those games. They only get back-to-back games that look tough on paper once all year (Houston and then San Francisco in Weeks 10 and 11), so the Bears should be able to avoid any extended losing streaks like they had at the end of last season. This schedule does nothing but help the outlook for the 2012 Bears.

Best-case scenario: Cutler, Forte, and Marshall come together to form the best QB-RB-WR group in the NFL, the offensive line can prevent Cutler from getting pummeled, McClellin turns into an instant threat and teams with Peppers to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks, Hester has a career year as the returner, and the Bears win the Super Bowl (yes, win the Super Bowl).
Worst-case scenario: The offensive line stinks again, Forte and/or Cutler gets hurt, Marshall doesn't get the ball enough and his bad attitude rears its ugly head, teams are able to throw the ball all over the field against the defense, and the Bears finish third in the division and miss the playoffs.
Realistic prediction: The best-case and worst-case scenarios here are wildly different from one another. There is a lot to like about this team, but there are also some holes that could prove too costly to overcome. Barring any injuries, I think this is a playoff team. The division they play in is tough, but I can see this team going 10-6 and at least winning one playoff game.