With rosters being cut down to 75 players today, the NFL season is inching closer and closer, and that means it is time for the next part of my team-by-team look at the upcoming season. Next up are the Detroit Lions and the Pittsburgh Steelers, the teams that finished second in 2011 in the NFC North and AFC North. To begin, I will start in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are a team that has been very successful over the past decade, and a 12-4 record along with a playoff berth in 2011 would qualify as a great year for most teams. For Pittsburgh though, success comes with playoff wins, and a heartbreaking overtime loss in the first round of the playoffs left a bad taste in the mouth of Steeler nation. The team did lose a few pieces in the offseason, most notably longtime Steelers great Hines Ward, but they still believe that they have a good enough team to be right in the thick of things when January rolls around.
Non-divisional opponents: Denver, NY Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, Tennessee, Washington, NY Giants, Kansas City, San Diego, Dallas
Looking at the numbers from 2011, the first thing that jumps off the page is how successful the defense was. Pittsburgh's defense was the best in the NFL in points allowed, total yards allowed, and passing yards allowed. They were also 8th in rushing yards allowed. They were the true definition of a standout defense in a league that was full of offense. The offense was in the top half of the league in most categories as well, so it was no surprise that this team went to the playoffs.
One oddity that hurt the team was the fact that despite such a good defense, their -13 turnover margin was the worst in the entire AFC. If their defense can force more turnovers than in 2011, they have a chance to be just as good as they were in 2012.
With the retirement of Hines Ward, the new undisputed leader of this team is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is not the most elegant of quarterbacks, but he is still one of the best in the game today, as his two Super Bowl rings would suggest. Roethlisberger is one of only three starting quarterbacks in the game with multiple Super Bowl championships. However, due to a few factors, Roethlisberger seems to be constantly playing while hurt. His toughness is probably the best in the league at his position, but he was playing hurt for multiple games again during 2011. Part of his injury history is due to his style of play, and probably more of it has to do with what has been a porous offensive line for multiple years now, but if he is unable to stay healthy for the year, despite his incredible toughness and ability to play through pain, the Steelers will not be able to get him a third Super Bowl ring.
During the recent run of success in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have always been able to support Roethlisberger with a stellar running game. Whether it was Jerome Bettis, Willie Parker, or Rashard Mendenhall carrying the load, Roethlisberger has always been able to count on solid support in the backfield. That changed in Pittsburgh's regular season finale last year though, as Mendenhall suffered a serious knee injury that forced him out of the playoff game the next week and will likely sideline him for multiple weeks at the beginning of this year as well. The Steelers are still unsure when he will be able to return, but it is likely that he will miss multiple games to begin 2012.
In place of Mendenhall, Isaac Redman will probably get the most carries, and while he has been solid as a number two back, he has never proven that he can be a bellcow back. Pittsburgh also has Jonathan Dwyer to support Redman, and keep an eye on Baron Batch and rookie Chris Rainey, either of who could step in and provide some help as well. If the combination of these four backs can prove to be serviceable while Mendenhall recovers, the Steelers could find themselves with a ton of depth in the backfield by midseason.
The receiving corps in Pittsburgh has been led by Hines Ward for a long time, but he retired after the 2011 season, and Mike Wallace is officially the new star at the receiver position. Wallace is extremely explosive and is a threat to turn any catch into a touchdown. Pittsburgh did a very good job of slowly diminishing the role of Ward last year, and it really allowed Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders to improve. They will both be counted on to step in and fill larger roles in support of Wallace. Longtime Steeler Heath Miller returns as the tight end, and he has provided Roethlisberger with a steady security blanket for many years now. He will be counted on to fill that role again in 2012.
The biggest, and most glaring, problem for the Steelers recently has been the offensive line. While Roethlisberger's ability to avoid defenses and extend plays has played a part in his injuries, he has also had little support from his front five, and the combination of both has come back to haunt the Steelers more often than they would like.
The best player up front is definitely center Maurkice Pouncey. Like his brother, he is both young and talented, and he has the potential to make multiple Pro Bowls in the very near future. Pittsburgh addressed their need for help up front in the draft by selecting guard David DeCastro. DeCastro suffered a pretty serious knee injury in Pittsburgh's third preseason game, and his status for the season is in question. He will probably be able to return at some point, but it might not be until the latter part of the year.
The five guys up front are still by far the biggest question mark in Pittsburgh though, and losing DeCastro before the season has even begun is a serious blow. Until they prove otherwise, the offensive line will be the weakest part of this team, and Roethlisberger will have a tough time avoiding hits from opposing defenders.
As far as the defense goes, the numbers from last year cannot be denied. This is one of the best defensive units in the league. When you talk about the defense of the Steelers, you have to begin with the linebackers. Playing a 3-4 system means that you need to have a strong group of linebackers, and the Steelers have just that. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison combine to form one of the best outside linebacker tandems in the NFL, and with Lawrence Timmons playing inside, this is a unit that will be feared each and every week.
Up front, the line has been led by nose tackle Casey Hampton, and he can still occupy multiple blockers, although he is getting up there in age so he is not the dominating presence that he once was. Brett Keisel also is a very good 3-4 defensive end, and the line is still definitely formidable.
The secondary is led by (in my opinion) one of the most exciting players to watch in the history of the league, Troy Polamalu. Polamalu can defend the run and the pass unbelievably well, and although his age is starting to creep higher and higher, he is still one of the best safeties in the game today. If it were not for Polamalu, Ryan Clark would be more highly regarded in the eyes of most fans, but his talent is overshadowed by that of his running mate. Clark is still a very good free safety that gets the job done.
The depth at cornerback is a bit of a concern however, as Ike Taylor is a very good defender (although he chose the worst time of the year to play a terrible game in Denver in the playoffs) but the talent behind him is not too great. This isn't the hugest concern, but it would be nice if Pittsburgh could get one of its other cornerbacks to step up and become a legitimate number two.
The special teams unit in Pittsburgh is about average. Shaun Suisham and Jeremy Kapinos do a respectable job as the kicker and punter, but neither is a standout. Antonio Brown has been a dynamic returner, but with his role on offense growing, it is likely that the Steelers will look to some younger players to return kicks and punts, so the jury is still out as far as their return game goes.
Looking at the schedule, we see a slate of games that is pretty tough. Playing against the NFC East will be no easy task, and the Steelers also will have to go to Denver in Week 1 to try to avenge their playoff loss from last year. Pittsburgh will not play a divisional game until Week 7, and they will get the Ravens twice within a three game span in Weeks 11-13. There are no easy stretches on the schedule, so Pittsburgh will be challenged from start to finish in 2012.
Best-case scenario: The running game can stay afloat until Rashard Mendenhall returns, the offensive line is able to protect Roethlisberger and allow him to stay healthy for all 16 games, the defense plays just as well as it did last year, and the Steelers make a deep playoff run (possibly all the way to a Lombardi Trophy).
Worst-case scenario: The offensive line is unable to protect Roethlisberger and he is forced to play at less than 100% for the majority of the year, the defense regresses and some of the stars begin to show their age, and the Steelers miss the playoffs in what will be a tough division.
Realistic prediction: I am still concerned about the offensive line here. No matter how tough Roethlisberger is, he still will need some kind of help from his offensive line. I think the receivers can step up and make up for the loss of Ward, and I still think that the defense will be good (although maybe not spectacular like last season). I'm going to say that Pittsburgh will go 10-6 and challenge for a postseason berth.
Detroit Lions
After a long period of putrid football that included the first 0-16 season in the history of the NFL, the Lions turned into contenders in 2012, finishing 10-6 and making the playoffs. The season was highlighted by the emergence of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson as one of the most dangerous quarterback-wide receiver tandems in the league. Stafford was able to stay healthy for the entire year and had a great year, while Johnson has become, most would say, the best at his position in all of football.
Detroit is still not a perfect team, but making the postseason last year was a giant leap forward, and the 2012 Lions will have higher expectations than any Lions team in a very long time.
Non-divisional opponents: St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Seattle, Jacksonville, Houston, Indianapolis, Arizona, Atlanta
A look at the numbers from 2011 show exactly how important Stafford and Johnson were to this team. The passing game was 4th best in the league, and the Lions were 5th in the league in total yards, as well as 4th in scoring. After that, the numbers are not as pretty. The 29th ranked rushing attack shows how much of a problem the running back position is, and the Lions defense was no higher than 22nd in any major category. Detroit did not make any major splashes in free agency, so they will be counting on improvement from the players surrounding Johnson and Stafford. If they can get better production from the supporting cast, the Lions could be a force to be reckoned with again in 2012.
As I have already mentioned, Matthew Stafford had a great 2011 season, and the former number one overall pick seems like he will be able to be the franchise quarterback that the Lions have been unable to find in a long, long time. However, Stafford has had a history of injuries, and 2011 was the first time he was finally fully healthy for a full season. Another injury-free season should be enough to prove that Stafford can be one of the best quarterbacks in the league for many years to come.
The 29th ranked rushing attack in the NFL obviously shows how one-dimensional this offense was in 2011. While Detroit's passing attack is one of the league's best, the team will greatly benefit from an improved rushing attack to take some of the pressure off of Stafford and his receiving corps. The problem is, the season has not even started yet and the Lions already have multiple issues in their backfield.
Jahvid Best is the top option at running back, but he has a lengthy injury history and will miss over a month to start the year. The second option is Mikel Leshoure, and he will miss the first two games of the year due to a suspension. The next option, Kevin Smith, suffered an ankle injury in the Lions third preseason game, but the injury doesn't appear too serious, and Smith should be the starter in Week 1. Smith played well in a few starts last year and if he can hold the fort down early in the year, the backfield of the Lions can be at full strength by midseason. Still, starting the year with the number three back on the depth chart certainly is not a good thing for a rushing attack that was already one of the worst in the NFL.
The group of receivers is headlined by Johnson, but he is by no means the only threat that Stafford has to throw to. Nate Burleson is not a household name when mentioning the best number two wideouts in the game, but with so much attention paid to Johnson by opposing defenses, Burleson has settled into a nice complementary role. Titus Young is also a very good third option, and he is still young with plenty of time to get better. Detroit also drafted Ryan Broyles in the second round to add even more depth.
At the tight end position, Detroit has Brandon Pettigrew, and he is developing into a top-flight option as well. With another full year of health from Stafford, this passing game actually has the potential to be even better than it was a season ago.
The offensive line is only average. The team drafted offensive tackle Riley Reiff with their first round pick, and they hope that he can make an impact sooner rather than later. Improvement from the group up front will not only open up holes for the running backs, but it will give Stafford a better chance to stay healthy.
Moving to the defensive side of the ball, the group up front is the strength. Ndamukong Suh is the biggest name of the bunch, although the reason for that is not only his on-field performance, but also his poor on-field behavior. He came into the league as a rookie in 2010 and had an unbelievably good year. In 2011, he regressed in terms of both his play on the field, but he also became known for his growing list of fines and suspensions. He is quickly gaining the reputation as one of the dirtiest players in the league, and it seemed as though that reputation hurt him and played a part in his statistical regression in 2011. Suh has made multiple proclamations about improving his on-field behavior, but he has not done enough to prove that he is truly committed to doing so. When at his best, he can be one of the most dominant forces in the game at the defensive tackle position, but he needs to control what is quickly becoming an attitude problem that could really hinder the growth of the defense as a whole.
The Lions also feature a very good group of defensive ends that can rush opposing passers. Kyle Vanden Bosch is a seasoned veteran who can still provide pressure off the edge. On the other side, Cliff Avril has shown a great deal of improvement and with Suh providing a potentially dominating presence in the middle of the line, Avril has been able to produce a lot of sacks. The Lions will count on him to do more of the same in 2012.
The linebacking group does not contain any superstars. They are an average group that greatly benefits from the talent on the line in front of them. Detroit used two late-round draft picks on the linebacker position with the hope that they can at least have good depth at the position, even if the group contains no standouts.
The secondary, like the linebacking corps, is only average. The team was 22nd in the league defending the pass in 2011, and that will need to improve, especially with more than a few teams on the schedule that feature very potent passing attacks. The two safeties are the best of the group, with free safety Louis Delmas being the best of the bunch. Detroit used three draft picks on defensive backs, and they added Jacob Lacey in free agency as well. Like the linebacking group, the Lions at least are attempting to build a lot of depth in the secondary.
The special teams group can get the job done, but is nothing spectacular. Jason Hanson, who has seemingly played forever, remains the kicker and Ryan Donahue is the punter. Stefan Logan can also be an explosive returner at times.
The schedule is not extremely difficult, but the Lions will play some tough games out of their division. The NFC North itself is a strong division though, and the head to head matchups between Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay will likely decide who makes the postseason and who stays home.
Best-case scenario: Stafford and Johnson are both able to repeat their exceptional 2011 seasons, the running game at least stays afloat and can get back to full strength by the second half of the season, Suh keeps his behavior in check and turns in a dominant season that allows the rest of the defense around him to succeed, and the Lions win the division.
Worst-case scenario: Stafford gets injured, the running game is nowhere to be found, Suh adds to his growing list of fines and suspensions, the defense is exposed due to a down year from the group up front, and the Lions cannot keep up with Green Bay and Chicago in the division.
Realistic prediction: I still need to see Stafford remain fully healthy for another year before I can believe that he will be a star going forward, but his 2011 season was undeniably great. The Lions passing attack has the potential to be extremely potent, but the problems at running back before the season has even started certainly does not help. In a division with an extremely good Packers team, and a Bears team that has improved a lot, I am going to say that the Lions take a small step back in 2012 and finish with a record of 9-7.
That ends part eleven of my look at the upcoming NFL season. Next up will be the New York Jets and the Dallas Cowboys. That should be fun...
Daily Giants Update: There were a lot of good things that came from the third preseason game. The fourth and final game will be used almost exclusively to decide the final spots on the roster, and we are unlikely to see a lot of the starters much, if even at all. Nine days and counting until the season officially begins.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Ugh
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