The next two teams on my 32 team list will be the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers. Both of these teams threw rookie quarterbacks straight into the fire last season. One surpassed any reasonable expectations, and the other was not very good. As both of them enter their second year leading their teams, a lot of the success or failure of these franchises will rest squarely on the shoulders of these two players. First up will be a look at the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville Jaguars
After three seasons of mediocrity (at best), the Jaguars found themselves in familiar territory last season, as they finished with a record of 5-11. After trading up to draft Blaine Gabbert in 2011, the Jaguars took a lot of heat as the season went on and Gabbert struggled. He completed just over 50% of his passes and fumbled an alarming 14 times. Jacksonville brought in a new coach in Mike Mularkey, who has been a successful offensive coordinator, and will be counted on to help develop Gabbert into something that will justify the first round pick that the team spent on him.
Non-divisional games: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Chicago, Oakland, Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami, New England
The numbers from last season pretty much paint an obvious picture of what the Jaguars team looked like. The Jags were dead last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards, but 12th in rushing yards. This was due, pretty much entirely, to the NFL's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. Despite the incompetence of Jacksonville's passing game, Jones-Drew was still able to thrive with almost no help around him. As of today though, Jones-Drew is holding out in search of a new contract. It is still expected that he and the team will get a deal worked out before the beginning of the regular season, but if that doesn't happen, then the Jaguars have little chance to mount any type of offense.
The defense last season in Jacksonville was very good, as the team ranked no worse than 11th in scoring, passing, rushing, and total yards. However, with an offense that was as bad as Jacksonville's last season, it didn't much matter and the Jags finished with a record of 5-11.
As I said before, the success of this offense hinges on two people: Maurice Jones-Drew and Blaine Gabbert. It is almost a given that Jones-Drew will again put up great numbers, and despite his small size he is still one of the best running backs in the NFL. The big question is Gabbert though. If he struggles like he did in 2011, the Jaguars will once again be a one dimensional team that will be unable to score a lot of points.
Jacksonville did all they could to help provide some support for Gabbert in the offseason, drafting clearly the best receiver available in Justin Blackmon, and adding Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans in free agency. Blackmon has the potential to be a star for years to come, and if Gabbert can improve and find him on a regular basis, then the Jaguars' passing game has a real chance to get better. Robinson and Evans are nice complementary pieces as well, and Mike Thomas gives the Jags four receivers that can be pretty good. Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller are also above-average tight ends. With this group of players, Gabbert has more talent around him than he has ever had in his football career, and if he is unable to succeed this season, then it will bring about serious questions as to whether he will ever be able to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. On the offensive line, the Jaguars obviously have at least some talent, as teams knew that Jones-Drew would be getting the ball a lot last year and he still managed a great season. While this was more due to Jones-Drew than the line, the offensive line deserves at least some of the credit here.
Switching to the defensive side of the ball, as the stats from last year demonstrate, the Jags are pretty good across the board. The defensive line contains some guys like Tyson Alualu and Jeremy Mincey who are solid, if unspectacular, players. Paul Posluszny and Daryl Smith lead a group of linebackers that is in the same class as the line, and the secondary is pretty much the same. The team added Aaron Ross to provide depth at the cornerback position over the offseason, and this will do nothing but help the Jags.
The one real problem here is the lack of much of a pass rush. Jacksonville drafted defensive end Andre Branch in the second round with the hope that he could provide some kind of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but there is not a lot else to get excited about in terms of getting after the quarterback, and this could hurt the Jaguars as they will face Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady this season. All three quarterbacks will be able to throw for a lot of yards if the Jags cannot get pressure on them.
The special teams unit is average, with Josh Scobee being a solid, mainstay kicker in Jacksonville for years now, and Mike Thomas providing a lot of skill as a returner. The team drafted punter Bryan Anger from Cal in the third round. That is somewhat high for a punter, and Anger will need to become a force on special teams in order to live up to his draft status.
Taking a look at the schedule, we see a pretty tough slate, as the Jags will face all of the members of the NFC North and the AFC East. However, they have no stretches of more than two consecutive games that would be considered too tough, and aside from the Texans, the division they play in is below average. If Gabbert can improve, then an improvement in terms of won-loss record is definitely possible.
Best-case scenario: Gabbert shows a lot of improvement in his first full year as the starter, Jones-Drew leads the league in rushing again, the defense is able to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the Jags finish second in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Gabbert struggles and too much of the offensive load is placed upon the shoulders of Jones-Drew, who wears down due to a high workload over the past few seasons, off-field problems crop up with Blackmon, the defense is unable to mount any sort of pass rush, and the Jaguars have a embarrassing last place finish in what is arguably the worst division in the NFL.
Realistic prediction: With the way Gabbert played last season, it is tough to say that he will be stellar, but he should improve at least somewhat. Jones-Drew is a legitimate stud, but I think the workload he has carried over the past few seasons may be a bit of a cause for concern, because running backs take a punishment every time they touch the ball. Defensively, the Jags are pretty good, but with an offense that may struggle to consistently put points on the board, I'm going to say that they end the year with a record of 6-10.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were at the center of one of the best stories of the NFL season, as number one overall pick Cam Newton burst onto the scene with one of the best rookie seasons that any quarterback has ever had. After finishing 2-14 in 2010, the Panthers improved to 6-10 thanks in large part to the energy that Newton injected into the team, and further improvement will be expected in 2012 after Newton gets a full offseason of work with the team.
Non-divisional games: NY Giants, Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, Washington, Denver, Philadelphia, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland
The numbers from last season demonstrate just how big of an impact Newton had, as the team ranked no worse than 7th in terms of scoring, passing, rushing, and total yards. Newton's ability to affect the game with both his arm and his legs played a huge part in the success that Carolina had on the offensive side of the ball.
The defense, however, was quite a different story. Just as the offense was successful across the board, the defense was abysmal across the board, ranking no better than 24th in the NFL in every major defensive category. The Panthers defense was hurt by some serious injuries to a few of their top players, but they were nonetheless bad from top to bottom.
Looking at the offense of the Panthers, it all begins at the quarterback position with Newton. He injected a ton of life into the offense from the minute he stepped onto the field with his ability to throw, as well as his ability to not only run the ball, but score touchdowns on the run, as he had 14 rushing touchdowns, an extremely high number for a quarterback. He set an extremely high standard though, and it might be too much to ask to expect the kind of magical rookie season that he had, although he does have the talent to get better, and it seems like the sky might be the limit as far as how good he can end up being.
Aside from Newton's ability to run the ball, the Panthers also have a tandem of very good backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and they signed Mike Tolbert in the offseason. Williams and Stewart can combine to form an excellent duo, and Tolbert is big and has a knack for scoring touchdowns when he gets the ball in goal-line situations.
The receiving corps is led by Steve Smith, who really looked re-invigorated by the presence of Newton. Before last season, it seemed like Smith might be nearing the downside of his career, but he turned in a great 2011 season, and he will be expected to match that production in 2012. What makes Smith's game even more important is the fact that aside from tight end Greg Olsen, there is not much else in terms of dangerous threats on the outside. Brandon LaFell and David Gettis are nothing more than average at best, and fourth round pick Joe Adams is explosive, but will probably play a bigger role in the kick return game than as a wide receiver during his rookie year. In order for the running game to be as effective as it has the potential to be, the Panthers must be able to put some kind of pressure on opposing secondaries, and a breakout year by one of the younger receivers would really help in making that happen.
The offensive line is above average, and they are led by center Ryan Kalil and left tackle Jordan Gross, both of whom are near the top of the league in terms of their respective positions. Offensive guard Amini Silatolu was drafted in the second round, and he could add more talent to a line that is already good.
As the numbers showed, the biggest problem with the Panthers last year was their defense. The leader in the middle of the defense is Jon Beason, and he was sorely missed last year after he went out for the season. Fellow linebacker Thomas Davis was also lost for the year, and the absence of these two played a big part in Carolina's defensive struggles. With the return of both of them, as well as the addition of top draft pick Luke Kuechly, the Panthers linebacking corps has the potential to be very good.
The defensive line, however, is only average at best, and the group will not exactly strike fear into opposing quarterbacks. Chris Gamble is a very solid cornerback, and the Panthers hope that Sherrod Martin can turn in a good year at the safety position. Aside from those two, the Panthers did not add a ton in the offseason and it may be tough for the team to improve upon the 24th ranked pass defense in 2011.
On special teams, the Panthers have Olindo Mare as the kicker and rookie Brad Nortman as the punter. Fourth round pick Joe Adams has the potential to bring some explosiveness to the return game.
Taking a look at the schedule this year, we see six games against teams that made the playoffs last year, as well as games against the Chargers, Eagles, Bears, and Cowboys. That makes it 10 games that look pretty tough on paper. The fact that the Panthers play in a division with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints doesn't make things any easier.
Best-case scenario: Newton's stock continues to rise as he avoids a sophomore slump and only gets better, the running game remains one of the best in the league, Smith gets some help from the other receivers, and the return of the defense to full health allows the Panthers to get near the .500 mark and stay within shouting distance of second place in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Newton is unable to meet the lofty expectations that will be placed upon his shoulders due to his outstanding rookie year, Smith begins to decline and is also unable to match his numbers from last season, opposing defenses can crowd the line of scrimmage to stop the run as the Panthers have little in the way of a passing game, the defense is again plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness, and the Panthers finish last in the division.
Realistic prediction: Although I think Newton has the ability to be a very good quarterback, I think it is unfair to expect him to match his outstanding rookie season, although I might be wrong about that. The running game is very good, but there are definite questions about the passing game and the defense. With an easier schedule, I think the Panthers would have a chance to improve upon their 2011 record, but as for a prediction, I am going to say they tie Tampa Bay in the division at 6-10.
That's it for part six of my team-by-team preview of the 2012 season. Tomorrow will be a look at the third place teams in the AFC and NFC North divisions, and that means we will take a look at the Cincinnati Bengals and the Chicago Bears.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: I am still not seeing enough improvement to warrant my belief that this is a playoff team. For every good game we play, it seems to be followed by a disappointing game. Right now we are facing a 3-0 deficit in the 6th inning in St. Louis in a game that has featured a number of missed scoring opportunities, and this has been a theme that has been far too prevelant this season. After tonight, we face the Cardinals for two more, and then go through a stretch of 10 games against the Astros, Marlins, and Padres; all teams near the bottom of the National League. If we can get on some kind of hot streak in the next two weeks, it is pretty much entirely games against divisional opponents from there until the end of the year. Some kind of spark is needed, and it is needed soon.
Daily Giants Update: The first preseason game ended in a 32-31 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the final score doesn't mean much in any preseason game, although the ability to put up a lot of points is nice to see. Hakeem Nicks is due back within the next few days after injuring his foot, so we should be at closer to full strength when we face the Jets this Saturday in preseason game number two.
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