As we get deeper and deeper into my look at the upcoming NFL season, next up is the Titans and the Falcons. Both of these teams have a good amount of questions coming into this season for a number of reasons. As I write this, the Titans are actually playing on ESPN, so it works out nicely. I can not only watch them on TV, but I can give you all a preseason look at them as well.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans had an up and down year in 2011. The star of the team, running back Chris Johnson, got a new contract before last year, and he was expected to be the best running back in the NFL. The problem was, someone must have forgotten to tell him that. He got off to a terrible start before finally picking up the pace at the end of the season, but by his previous standards it was a bad year. He finished with 1,047 yards, which is still a great year, but for a guy that broke the 2,000 yard barrier the year before, it was a big drop off. He also only scored four touchdowns, which was a big disappointment. For the Titans to improve this season, they will need Johnson to produce much more offense than he did in 2011.
Non-divisional opponents: New England, San Diego, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, NY Jets, Green Bay
A look at the numbers from 2011 shows an offense that was below average, and the 31st ranked rushing average really reflects upon how poorly Johnson played. The passing attack was actually ranked 12th in the NFL, and the Titans have a group of receivers that are not exactly well known, but they are a pretty solid bunch. The scoring defense was 8th in the league, but the defense was below average in all other major categories, so the Titans can't expect a trend like that to continue in 2012. The defense needs to get better.
Aside from Johnson, the Titans also face a dilemma at the quarterback spot. Matt Hasselbeck was behind center for the majority of 2011, and although he is not nearly as respected as he should be, he put together a somewhat solid, if unspectacular season. That has been Hasselbeck's M.O. throughout his career. Going into 2012 though, the Titans have chosen to go with second year pro Jake Locker as their starting quarterback. Locker was highly touted coming out of the University of Washington when he was drafted, and the Titans hope that with a year learning from Hasselbeck and the staff under his belt, he can grow into the role of their starting quarterback and remain there for years to come. Locker does a lot of things well, and with Hasselbeck as a mentor, I think he has a chance to have a pretty good season.
The success of Locker, and the offense as a whole, largely will come down to how Chris Johnson performs. Was 2011 just an aberration? Or did Johnson get his big contract and then rest on his laurels? How Johnson performs this season will answer those questions. When at his best, Johnson is extremely explosive and can be unstoppable. However, if he is not focused, the offense will really suffer. If he is effective, the Titans can utilize the play-action pass to really fool defenses, and it will make Locker's transition into the starting role a lot easier.
As far as Locker's targets to throw to, they may not be household names, but he has a lot of solid options. Nate Washington had a very good 2011, and he seems like he is primed for another solid 2012. Kenny Britt is solid as well, but due to a combination of injuries and off-field problems, I am not sure that the Titans can count on him to be out there each and every week. He missed a lot of games in 2011 due to injury, and he is facing a possible suspension to start this year as well. Tennessee drafted wide receiver Kendall Wright out of Baylor in the first round this year, and he has the potential to be a nice weapon on the outside. Add a good receiving tight end in Jared Cook, along with Johnson's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and the Titans have a better receiving corps than the casual fan might see on paper.
The offensive line is solid. Left guard Steve Hutchinson is the most well-known of the group, and although he is still a good player, he is on the downside of his career. Left tackle Michael Roos is probably the best of the group, and as I have said many times before, a good left tackle really goes a long way in helping young quarterbacks develop, so the presence of Roos should help Locker a lot. The rest of the line is good, but the depth is not so great, so the group up front will have to stay healthy. If they can protect Locker and open up holes for Johnson, the Titans offense has the potential to be above average across the board.
The defensive side of the ball is where the Titans struggled last season, and they lost a few pieces, so the unit will have to improve in 2012. One notable move Tennessee made in the offseason was the addition of defensive end Kamerion Wimbley. Wimbley has developed into a very good pass rusher, and his presence alone will help everyone around him. The Titans drafted defensive end Derrick Morgan with the hope that he could provide a good pass rushing threat off the edge, but he has been a disappointment thus far. The team hopes that with the addition of Wimbley on the other side, Morgan will have more space to attack. Defensive tackle Jurrell
As far as the linebacking unit goes, the Titans really like middle linebacker Colin McCarthy, and outside linebacker Akeem Ayers can be pretty good as well. Will Witherspoon is beginning to show his age on the weak side, but Tennessee drafted outside linebacker Zach Brown out of North Carolina with their second round pick, so with a little seasoning, he might be able to possibly step in and give the Titans a solid second option behind the aging Witherspoon.
The secondary is where the Titans took the biggest hit in the offseason, as cornerback Cortland Finnegan left for St. Louis. Finnegan is known for his feistiness and willingness to get in the face of opposing receivers, but his talent as a corner is undeniable, and the Titans will miss him. Jason McCourty will replace him as the number one cornerback, and McCourty is young and talented, so the team will hope that he can develop into a solid number one cornerback. Michael Griffin is a talented safety, and he has good playmaking ability and ball skills. The secondary is respectable, but there is no denying that the loss of Finnegan will hurt a passing defense that was already in the bottom half of the league.
As far as special teams goes, the Titans have arguably the best kicker in the league in Rob Bironas. He has a booming leg and very good accuracy. As I write this, their return specialist Marc Mariani just went down with a leg injury that looked pretty serious. We will have to wait to see what the prognosis is, but his lower leg was bending in a direction that legs are not supposed to bend, so this might be the last we see of Mariani in 2012. Losing him would be a big blow to Tennessee's return game.
The schedule is somewhat tough, as the Titans will get an NFC North division that contains three good teams, as well as games against the Patriots, Chargers, and Steelers. The first four games of the year are extremely tough (New England, San Diego, Detroit, Houston), and Tennessee should be thrilled if they can go 2-2 during that stretch. On paper, this schedule looks to be pretty tough, and I'm not sure that a team with a rookie quarterback will be able to find a lot of success.
Best-case scenario: Johnson bounces back and puts up over 1,500 yards, in turn allowing Locker to ease his way into the quarterback spot and find some early success, the young players on defense improve as a unit, and the Titans finish second in their division.
Worst-case scenario: Johnson struggles again, Locker flops as the starting quarterback, the loss of Finnegan proves costly as the Titans cannot stop teams from throwing the ball against them, and the Titans find themselves near the bottom of the division and out of playoff contention by Thanksgiving.
Realistic prediction: I think the worst-case scenario is more likely here. Locker has some of the tools to be a solid quarterback, but thus far has been nothing spectacular. With a pretty tough schedule in front of them, I am going to say that the Titans finish 5-11.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a lot to prove in 2012. For some time now, Atlanta has been a team that has been able to succeed in the regular season, but they have continually fallen flat on their faces in the postseason. Over the past four seasons, the team has gone 11-5, 9-7, 13-3, and 10-6. They made the playoffs in three of those seasons, but did not win one playoff game in any of them, and they have not won any postseason game since 2004. I was shocked at how lifeless the team looked in the postseason last year when they lost 24-2 to my Giants. It was as if they had given up by the start of the third quarter. Unless they are finally able to turn regular season success into postseason success, the Falcons may need to make some serious changes.
Non-divisional opponents: Kansas City, Denver, San Diego, Washington, Oakland, Philadelphia, Dallas, Arizona, NY Giants, Detroit
The numbers from 2011 show a team that was above average pretty much across the board. The weakest part of their offense was the 17th ranked rushing attack, but with a very good running back in Michael Turner, I don't think that the running game is too much of a concern.
Defensively, the weakest link was the secondary. The Falcons added Asante Samuel to try to address this, but there is a reason that the Eagles were willing to let him go. He is not the standout corner that he was with the Patriots, and they will need improvement from their holdovers in the secondary to prevent teams from being able to throw the ball against them again.
Matt Ryan is an enigma at quarterback. There have been a growing number of rookie quarterbacks that have found instant success in their first year in the league, but he seemed to set that trend during his rookie season. He has been very solid as the quarterback of the Falcons, and has an unbelievably good record in home games since he came into the league, but the failures of the team in the postseason have mirrored Ryan's play. There is only so long that a player can go before they need to step up in the big games, and Ryan is reaching the point that he has to do so. As of now, he is a very good quarterback, but until he finally starts to lead the Falcons to victories in the playoffs, he will never reach the level of the best in the game.
The running game has been a staple in the offense of the Falcons for the last few seasons. Coming over from San Diego as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson, there were some questions about how Michael Turner would perform as the starting running back. He is on the smaller side and had never shouldered the load as a full-time number one back, but he has since answered all of those questions and become a workhorse back that the Falcons can count on. His durability and toughness have allowed him to pass most reasonable expectations of him, and he has become one of the best backs in the NFL since coming to Atlanta.
The receiving corps in Atlanta is also a definite strength. Number one wideout Roddy White is a legitimate star, and Julio Jones seems to be establishing himself as a great number two option for Ryan to throw to. Tight end Tony Gonzalez may be getting old, but he is one of the best at his position in the history of the game, and he is still a very effective weapon, especially when teams have to double cover the receivers and he can roam freely in the middle of the field. Harry Douglas is an unknown name to a lot of people, but as the number four receiving option, he is well above average. As far as skill position players around him, Ryan has plenty of great weapons that he can utilize in all kinds of different ways.
The offensive line is the weakest part of this offense, and if the guys up front can improve, this offense has the potential to be one of the best in the league. Right tackle Tyson Clabo is the best of the bunch, and while no one on the line is terrible, there is also no one that is great. If the unit can play better, then it will make things a lot easier for the rest of the offense to put up points.
The defensive line, like the offensive line, is good but not great. John Abraham has been one of the best in the business at rushing the passer for a while, but he does not have the quickness and burst that he once had. He can still cause problems for opposing quarterbacks, but the Falcons cannot count on him to take over games by himself like he once did. Corey Peters can be pretty good inside, and Ray Edwards is a respectable pass rusher opposite Abraham, so Atlanta will need someone besides Abraham to be able to provide consistent pressure on opposing offenses.
The linebacking corps is only average at best. Outside linebacker Sean Witherspoon is the best of the bunch, but the rest of the group is unspectacular. The team added Lofa Tatupu in the offseason, and he had some good years in Seattle, but has been disappointing recently. The linebackers will need to step up and not be the weak link of the defense.
In the secondary, Atlanta has some players that have the potential to combine to form a pretty good unit, at least at the cornerback position. Brent Grimes has developed into a pretty good corner, and as I said before, Asante Samuel was added over the offseason. Although not a perfect cornerback, he still has terrific ball skills, but his tackling, as it has always been, is sub par. With more than a few teams on the schedule that have numerous receiving threats, Atlanta's secondary will need to play well.
The special teams unit is solid. Harry Douglas is a good threat as a returner. Matt Bryant and Matt Bosher are not outstanding, but they provide a kicking game that is good enough.
The schedule this year is pretty tough for the Falcons. They get the NFC East, which is arguably the best division in football, as well as the AFC West, which has some teams that are ascending. Atlanta only plays one division game in the first nine weeks of the year, so success in the second half of the season will be imperative. As I said before though, this is no longer a team that will be judged on its success in the regular season alone. Until they start winning postseason games, Atlanta will not be meeting expectations.
Best-case scenario: Ryan is able to put together a very good year and utilize the numerous weapons around him, the defense can step up and play better as a unit, and the Falcons finally can advance in the playoffs. Maybe not to the Super Bowl, but any kind of postseason victory will do at this point.
Worst-case scenario: The defense struggles and cannot stop many of the high-powered offenses that Atlanta will face, Atlanta gets overtaken by the Panthers in the division and misses the playoffs, and serious changes are made in the offseason, starting with the firing of head coach Mike Smith.
Realistic prediction: Until this team shows me that they can succeed in the postseason, recent history suggests that they will not meet the expectations that many have placed upon them for the past few years. A tough schedule ahead of them doesn't help. I'm going to say 9-7.
So that's all for part ten of my NFL preview series. Next will be a look at the second place teams from 2011 in the AFC and NFC North, the Lions and the Steelers.
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