With the preseason now in full swing, the smell of football is truly in the air. We are starting to get a sense of how teams might look when the regular season begins in just over two weeks. Part seven of my preview will look at the teams that finished third in the AFC East and NFC East, meaning we will get a closer look at the Dolphins and the Eagles. I'll start in Miami.
Miami Dolphins
By the end of the 2011 season, it seemed as though the Dolphins were beginning to head in the right direction. They finished the season with a record of 6-3 in their final nine games. Two of those losses came by a combined 4 points against Dallas and New England. Even though head coach Tony Sparano was inevitably going to be fired at the end of the season, the Dolphins played hard all the way through Week 17.
The organization did fire Sparano at the end of the season, and they replaced him with former Packers assistant Joe Philbin, who brought Mike Sherman with him to Miami to be the offensive coordinator. The offense was the weaker part of the team for the majority of last year, and the Dolphins hope that this new staff will be able to install a system that will allow the Dolphins to score more points and take some pressure off of the defense.
Non-divisional opponents: Houston, Oakland, Arizona, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville
A look at the numbers from last year shows exactly why an offensive minded head coach was brought in to replace Sparano. The Dolphins were no better than 20th in scoring, total yards, and passing yards. The running game was the bright spot, as Reggie Bush had a very good year, and the Dolphins had the 11th ranked rushing attack in the NFL.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami featured a very stout run defense (3rd in the NFL), as well as the 6th ranked defense in terms of points per game allowed. The weak link of the defense was the secondary, and the Dolphins didn't do a lot to improve in that area over the offseason.
At this point, the biggest question mark for Miami's offense is at the quarterback position. Chad Henne and Matt Moore were the starters last year, and neither of them were particularly impressive in that role. Moore led the team at the end of the year when they played much better, but he fumbled 14 times, and really is more of a backup than a full-time starter. Henne was let go in the offseason and replaced by former Jaguar David Garrard. Garrard is nothing more than a mediocre starter, although still an upgrade over Moore and Henne.
The man that the Dolphins hope can step up at this position is first round pick Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is a former wide receiver who only recently became a quarterback, but made the transition and flourished at Texas A&M. His stock skyrocketed, and he is now the quarterback of the future for the Dolphins and their new staff. As has been the case with many rookie quarterbacks in the past few years, the Dolphins officially announced that Tannehill will be the starter in Week 1. Much of the success of this offense will depend upon how well Tannehill can play. We will get a look at Tannehill right off the bat, and if he is able to succeed, then the Dolphins will have high hopes for their future.
Tannehill will be aided by a relatively strong backfield. Reggie Bush had a true shot to be a number one back in 2011, and he took advantage of the opportunity, coming up with a 1,000 yard season, while also continuing to provide a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield. Daniel Thomas is a respectable number two back, and Charles Clay is a very underrated fullback who can provide some offense as well.
The running game will need to be good, because the real weakness of this offense is the receiving corps. The team suffered an enormous loss when Brandon Marshall went to Chicago. Marshall is a top ten receiver and he will be sorely missed, especially by a team with a rookie quarterback. The Dolphins now will look to Brian Hartline to be their number one threat and Davone Bess to be the starter on the other side. Hartline can be a respectable number two wideout, and Bess can be good as the third option, but both of these guys are playing in positions in which they will probably not be able to flourish. Anthony Fasano is a good tight end, and his presence will probably help Tannehill a lot. Right now though, it seems like the loss of Marshall will really hurt what was already a below-average passing game.
What is usually referred to as the biggest aide in helping a young quarterback succeed is the presence of a tackle that can protect the blind side, and Miami is definitely set as far as the left tackle spot goes. Like fellow rookie Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, Tannehill is not surrounded by a ton of talent in terms of scoring threats around him, but he is without question surrounded by one of the best left tackles in the game in Jake Long. Long will be an immensely important part of Tannehill's success, as well as the success of the entire offense all year long. Tannehill also has a standout center to help him in Mike Pouncey, and the rest of the line is pretty solid as well. If second round pick Jonathan Martin can step in as the starting right tackle, this line can be very good. Tannehill
The front seven on the defensive side of the ball was very good last year, and we should see much of the same in 2012. Paul Soliai is a very good tackle who can be a force in stopping the run, as the Dolphins third best rush defense in the league in 2011 shows. Koa Misi and Karlos Dansby are also above-average linebackers, and Cameron Wake is an excellent pass rusher coming from his outside linebacker spot.
The front four is stout against the run, and can definitely get after opposing quarterbacks. The problem in 2011 was when the quarterbacks actually had time to throw, the secondary could not stop opposing receivers. Vontae Davis is a good cornerback, but Sean Smith has yet to meet expectations on the other side. The loss of safety Yeremiah Bell also surely does not help matters. Miami added Richard Marshall and Tyrell Johnson, but on paper this secondary group looks weaker than it did last year, and for what was already the 25th ranked pass defense, that is not a good thing.
The special teams in Miami is a strength. Davone Bess and Clyde Gates can be good returners, and Brandon Fields is a very good punter. If the return game of the Dolphins can provide the team with good field position consistently, it will really help lighten the load on an offense that is not exactly explosive.
The schedule provides a bit of hope, as the Dolphins will get to play the NFC West and the AFC South, two of the weaker divisions in the league. Four of their final five games are against the Patriots (twice), the 49ers, and the Bills though, so I think a strong finish like the one they had in 2011 is out of the question in 2012.
Best-case scenario: Tannehill flourishes right from the start, Bush shows that he can be a true workhorse back and runs for over 1,000 yards again, the receiving corps steps up enough to help the offense, the front seven on defense can both stop the run as well as rush the quarterback, the secondary steps up to match the production of the rest of the defense around them, and the Dolphins finish second in the division.
Worst-case scenario: The lack of any sort of receiving threat hurts Tannehill's development, Bush wears down and is unable to match his 2011 production, the secondary can't stop anyone again, and the Dolphins finish last in the division.
Realistic prediction: The Dolphins have some good pieces on their roster, but it is going to be really tough for a rookie quarterback to develop when he will be thrown into the fire with hardly anything around him in terms of receiving threats on the outside. Despite the strong finish to last season, the Dolphins did start 0-7, and that cannot be overlooked. The defense can be good enough to keep Miami in most games, but I just cannot see this being anything more than a below-average offense. I am going to say that Miami finishes 5-11.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had extremely high expectations going into the 2011 season. They had made multiple offseason acquisitions, and it was Super Bowl or bust in Philadelphia. The problem with all of the preseason hype was that it overshadowed some serious weak spots on the team, and they showed up in a big way as the Eagles started the season at 4-8. However, the team did finally seem to find a rhythm in the final month of the season, and they finished 8-8. The beginning of the year was very bad, but the strong finish provided the Eagles with the hope that they can turn that into a full season of success.
Non-divisional opponents: Cleveland, Baltimore, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati
The numbers from last year actually match what the preseason expectations were. The Eagles were in the top ten in the league in every major offensive category, as well as pass defense, total yards allowed, and scoring defense. The weakest part of the team was the rushing defense, but even that was a respectable 16th in the league. So with numbers like that, what exactly went wrong? First off, turnovers killed the Eagles. It seemed as though every time the Eagles turned the ball over, it was when they were in scoring positions, and these mistakes at inopportune times really hurt.
Philadelphia also blew multiple fourth quarter leads, which was another sign of a team that is guaranteed to be unsuccessful. The strong finish of the Eagles did also inflate the numbers somewhat, but the inability to protect both the ball and the lead was what really did the Eagles in.
The first thing that you have to mention when talking about the offense of the Eagles is its explosiveness. Michael Vick has the ability to take over games with both his legs and his arm, and often times with a combination of both. LeSean McCoy is extremely quick and elusive, especially when he is able to get the ball in space on draw plays and screen passes. On the outside, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin also provide serious threats, and even Riley Cooper and Jason Avant are above-average complementary receivers. Brent Celek provides even more of a threat at the tight end position, as he has developed into an above-average receiving threat. The combination of all of these weapons makes the Eagles offense potentially one of the most dangerous in all of football.
The one enormous question when it comes to this offense is how the team will adjust to the loss of left tackle Jason Peters, who will miss the entire season with a ruptured achilles tendon. Peters was one of the best offensive linemen in the league, and his loss, combined with Vick's style of play in which he is constantly on the move, could be a big problem. Philadelphia brought in Demetress Bell to replace Peters, but he is nowhere near as good as Peters, and in a division full of great pass rushers, Vick could be in a lot of trouble behind a seriously weakened offensive line.
The defense was the part of the team that really proved to be the downfall in 2011. The Eagles were gashed in the running game for the first half of the season, and the play of the defense really mirrored the record of the team as a whole. They improved at the end of the year, and the Eagles hope that can be the case going into 2012.
Many of the offseason moves that the Eagles made to address those defensive concerns show that the team is committed to having a defense that can be one of the best in the league. The front seven got a number of upgrades through both the draft and free agency. A defensive line that was already good got even better with the addition of defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and defensive end Vinny Curry in the draft. Curry adds depth to a pass rush that already featured two excellent ends in Trent Cole and Jason Babin, and the Eagles hope that Cox can help plug the holes in the middle of the line so the defense can get better against the run.
The biggest move of the offseason was the addition of middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Ryans was acquired from the Texans, and he has the potential to be a Pro Bowler this season. The team also drafted outside linebacker Mychal Kendricks from Cal, and with an improved line, these two could be able to make a lot of tackles.
The secondary lost cornerback Asante Samuel, but still have Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to man the outside. Both Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie had down years in 2011, due to a number of factors. The team hopes that both can bounce back, because the Eagles will be seeing a lot of very good receivers all season. The safeties are only average, so that will put even more pressure on Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie to be able to lock down opposing receivers.
Like the offense, the return game of the Eagles has the potential to be explosive. Dion Lewis will get a lot of chances to return both punts and kicks, and he is an above-average returner. There is also always the threat of DeSean Jackson running back punts for touchdowns at any given time. He is not the full-time punt returner since the Eagles need him to stay healthy enough to be their number one receiver on offense, but he still gets enough chances to change games with his return abilities.
The problem for the Eagles is the same problem for everyone else in the NFC East this year: the schedule. After what should be a win in Week 1 against Cleveland, the Eagles face a murderer's row, as seven of their next eight games are against the Ravens, Giants, Steelers, Lions, Falcons, Saints, and Cowboys. The schedule gets a bit easier after that, but the NFC East is still going to come down to how each team fares in head-to-head matchups since the non-divisional schedule is so tough.
Best-case scenario: Vick is able to stay healthy for the entire year despite the absence of his best offensive lineman, McCoy and the receivers are unstoppable as a unit, the defense is able to make a significant jump and be consistent all year, and the Eagles win the Super Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: Vick can't stay healthy again, the team desperately misses Peters and the entire offense suffers, the play of the defense doesn't match the names on the back of the jerseys, the team finishes third again, and serious questions arise as to whether or not Andy Reid's tenure in Philadelphia will come to an end before 2013.
Realistic prediction: I am inclined to say 11-5 here, but what happened last season still has to be a concern. The schedule is extremely tough, and Michael Vick still has yet to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season, so there will be little room for error if Vick misses time. As usual in the NFC East though, this will all come down to how each team fares head-to-head. I'm going to say 10-6 with a berth in the playoffs.
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