For the most part, I believe that sports should be taken for what it is: entertainment. Although people like myself, and many others, think of sports as more than entertainment, that's all it really is. When people think of examples of "entertainment," the first types of entertainment that probably come to the minds of most are things like films or music, and these are great examples. We are entertained when we go to the movie theatre. We are entertained when we go see a live musical performance.
However, just because many people might see acting or singing as a sort of dream job that most people would love to have, it is important to remember that actors and musicians still do in fact have to "go to work" each and every day. Granted, composing records or acting in comedies may be far more fun than construction work or secretarial work, these things are all jobs. If you get to be a part of a band and record an album, it may be a lot of fun, but if your album flops, you have failed at your job just like any construction worker or secretary would fail if they were fired.
I think the line really gets hard to see in athletic professions. There are people of all colors and creeds throughout the world that dream of being professional athletes or coaches. Kids are much more likely to imagine themselves as Bill Mazeroski hitting a home run to win the World Series or Vince Lombardi being carried off the field by his team as a champion than they are to imagine themselves getting that important proposition in that leads to financial growth or completing the first subway line that will revolutionize travel in New York City. For that reason, I think we are far too quick to characterize anyone who has a job in professional or collegiate sports as lucky. Just because these men or women are doing something we wish we could do does not make them lucky. It makes them more qualified to do a job that we wish we could have.
That is why when the University of Colorado fired its head football coach, Jon Embree, this past week, it was a true demonstration of why careers in sports are still jobs, and not lifetime pleasure passes. On the surface, Embree's resume as the head coach of Colorado was horrendous. In two years as the head coach, Embree led the Buffaloes to a combined record of 4-21, and his teams lost by an average score of 41-19. There is absolutely no questioning the fact that those numbers are terrible. So, by looking at just those numbers alone, one could say that Embree's firing was completely justified. However, during Embree's farewell press conference, he pointed out a few things that have stirred up some controversy over the past few days.
What Embree's main focus was on was the fact that he was black. He stated that he felt like his job at Colorado was ended prematurely because of the color of his skin, and that he doubted, because of that, that he would ever be able to get another head coaching position at the college level again. And before anyone says that his statement is nonsense, you need to know that there has only been one black head coach in the history of college football that has been fired and has been granted another shot at a head coaching job at the college level. That was Tyrone Willingham, who was the head coach at both Stanford and Notre Dame. So, as outlandish as some may say Embree's comments are, the fact remains that over a century's worth of history says he will not get another shot to be a head coach at the collegiate level again.
Second, Embree focused on the fact that he had originally signed a five-year contract with Colorado. Just that by itself would be considered unfair by many. The man signed a five-year contract, but after two years, he was dismissed. The length of the contract of a head coach is especially important at the college level. Since Embree inherited a team that was constructed completely by another head coach, it was not as if he had a chance to truly make the team his own. As a college head coach, you are usually judged upon how well you can recruit players, and logically, it would take four years of recruiting before Embree could have a team that was truly his own. After only two years, there were still a number of players on the roster that he had not recruited. It is true that the best coaches would be able to win with any players that they are given, but for a first time head coach like Embree, I think it would be rational to at least give him four years to prove what he could do with a roster of players that was truly his own. The administration at Colorado apparently did not agree with me there.
Next, in what I think was probably the most flawed part of Embree's argument that he was prematurely fired, was the fact that his predecessor Dan Hawkins, a white man, held the head coaching position at Colorado for five years. Over that period of time, Hawkins led the Buffaloes to a combined record of 22-40, with an average margin of defeat of 28-22. That is a whole lot better than what Embree's teams did. To make the comparison more equal, over the first two seasons of Hawkins' tenure, Colorado went a combined 8-17 with an average margin of defeat of 26-22. That is a huge difference not only when taking into account Hawkins' entire tenure, but his first two years as well. From year one to year two, Hawkins' teams went from 2-10 to 6-7. From year one to year two, Embree's teams went from 3-10 to 1-11. That means, not only were Embree's teams regressing in terms of record, but they were also regressing in terms of margin of defeat. At least over Dan Hawkins' first two seasons, the team markedly improved in all aspects.
So, I understand those who say that Embree should have at least been able to coach out the length of his contract. However, I also understand why the university felt it was correct in moving in another direction. There is absolutely no doubting the fact that Embree's first two years on the job were far worse than Hawkins' first two years on the job. The color of their skin plays no part in proving that.
I hope Embree can land on his feet somewhere and possibly one day get another shot at a head coaching job. Nevertheless, I go back to my original point about sports still being a business. The University of Colorado hired Embree with the hope that he could move the football program in the right direction. Although he may not have been given an ample amount of time to do so, he still failed at his job. His skin color may have played a role in his firing. The only people that know that for sure are the administrators at the University of Colorado. However, the facts are the facts. Jon Embree did not perform well enough at his profession to satisfy the demands of his superiors. And although it is okay to feel bad for him for losing his job, one must also see the situation from the other end of the spectrum and understand that his performance was far from what was expected of him. If he was a construction worker, a secretary, or a football coach, then that is reason enough to be relieved of your duties.
Daily Giants Update: A very nice 38-10 win this past Sunday really makes me feel a lot better. While some people are saying it was the most completely dominant performance of the season, I still think our wins in Carolina and San Francisco were more complete. Nonetheless, it was great to see. We now sit at 7-4, with a nice grip of first place in the NFC East. Next up is a Monday Night showdown on the road against the Redskins. I was given a full lesson in "RG3-ology" the last time we played Washington, so this is by no means an easy game. A win will give us a stranglehold on the top spot in the division. A loss...well...I'd rather not think about that. Let's Go Giants!
Daily Nets Update: A win over the Knicks the other night was great and it seems like we might actually have an inter-borough rivalry brewing here between Brooklyn and Manhattan. At 9-4, the Nets are now tied with the Knicks for the second best record in the Eastern Conference. Tonight, the Nets will travel to Boston for a showdown with the Celtics.
As far as the Rangers and Diamondbacks go, there is not much new to report. Sadly, the NHL is still in the midst of yet another lockout, and as the days go by, it seems less and less likely that we will actually get any NHL games at all this season. After such a great year not only for the Rangers, but for the league in general, it is really a shame that this is happening again.
Justin Upton is still a Diamondback too, so that means we are getting closer and closer to Opening Day and we still have our superstar on the roster!
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
NFC Season Recap (so far)
The Monday Night game last evening featured two NFC teams, so to make my 11 week recap equal all-around, I'll do the NFC today. As I did yesterday with the AFC, I'll start in the east and then head west...
NFC East
Giants (7-4) - As has been the case in recent years, the Giants are the prime example of how long an NFL season really is. There are ups and downs along the way for all 32 teams, but it always seems like the ups and downs of the Giants are far more extreme than most teams. The Giants have put in dominating efforts multiple times, including blowout victories over two of the NFL's best teams, the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers. However, they have also been blown out by the Bengals, lost to what we now know is a bad Eagles team, and looked terrible in a loss at home against the Steelers.
With all of that being said, the schedule has been very tough, and the Giants hold a commanding lead in the division. However, the schedule gets no easier, as the Giants still have to play the Redskins once more, as well as the Saints, Falcons, Ravens, and Eagles. It is sometimes impossible to predict how this team will play from week to week, but I think that anything less than 10-6 should be considered a disappointment here, and the fan in me still believes that anything less than a Super Bowl should be considered a disappointment at this point as well.
Redskins (5-6) - Now here is a team that will be very interesting to watch not only for the remainder of 2012, but for the near future as well. Robert Griffin III has already, in my eyes, surpassed expectations as a rookie quarterback. He has been sensational for much of the year. He put on a spectacular performance at Giants Stadium back in October, and it took another fourth quarter miracle from our two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback to beat Washington. A lot of credit should be given to the coaching staff of the Redskins, as they have done what I believe only the best coaches in sports can do. Instead of forcing Griffin to fit into their previous system, they have instead built a system that plays to his strengths and it has paid off so far.
Although they are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture right now, they are only one game out of the final spot. They are battling a lot of teams for that final position though, and I would be very surprised if they were able to reach the postseason. I think 8-8 should be a realistic goal for Washington, and they are definitely trending upwards with what appears to be a franchise quarterback finally on their roster.
Cowboys (5-6) - Different year, same problems in Dallas. The Cowboys are extremely unpredictable from week to week, yet they are extremely predictable in terms of how their final record will look. Once again, they have had great wins and horrible losses. Once again, they have had guys make great plays, and the same guys also make terrible mistakes. Once again, the coach is on the hot seat, the owner is lurking far too close than he should be, and Dallas is mediocre.
I am obviously not going to write Dallas off yet, but they have an uphill climb in front of them, for a multitude of reasons, to make the postseason. The schedule does not do them many favors either, as they still have to play the Saints, Steelers, Redskins, and Bengals. At best, I say they get to 9-7 and contend for the final playoff spot. Realistically though, I think that 8-8 is more likely.
Eagles (3-8) - 2012 will likely go down as a season in which the Philadelphia Eagles officially hit rock bottom. The Eagles fell far below expectations last season, and going into 2012, it seemed like the team, as currently constructed, would have a second chance. Well, the Eagles have taken that chance and failed miserably in nearly every way. Offense, defense, coaching, management...each part of the organization can share the blame here. Their loss at home against the Panthers last night not only dropped them another game back in the division, it actually dropped them into dead last in the entire NFC, something I doubt even the most ardent Eagles hater could have predicted.
It is pretty much a guarantee at this point that we will see wholesale changes in Philadelphia after this season, and it is likely that they will begin with the exit of the head coach and starting quarterback. Injuries have really hurt the offensive line, but the players they have up front now have just not been good at all. Somehow, the defense has probably been just as bad, if not worse, than the offensive line, and we will probably see a lot of new names on defense in 2013 as well.
All five of the Eagles' final games are against teams with some sort of playoff aspirations, so it would not surprise me at all to see them lose all five of them. However, they still get the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins once each, and division games (especially in the NFC East) are always unpredictable, so I will say that the Eagles will win at least one of them. If they can beat either Cincinnati or Tampa Bay and finish at 5-12, I think that is the best they can hope for. Do not get me wrong though, no matter what happens the rest of the way, this has been a pathetic season for the Eagles.
NFC North
Bears (8-3) - Chicago is another interesting team. Their 8-3 record seems to reflect exactly where they should be if you look at their schedule, but that might also be the problem. The three best teams that the Bears have played (Green Bay, San Francisco, and Houston) have all resulted in losses. Yes, Jay Cutler was injured for the Houston and San Francisco games, but Chicago does not really have any impressive wins.
It seems like the same few problems that have plagued the Bears in recent years might be cropping up again as well. Matt Forte and Jay Cutler can never seem to get through an entire season without getting hurt, and the offensive line is still below-average.
The schedule is not too tough on paper the rest of the way, but as I have said before, they still have three divisional games to go, and those are never easy. I think 11-5 is a realistic goal for the Bears, and anything better than that will probably mean a first-round bye in the playoffs. What they do once they get there will be the true test though.
Packers (7-4) - Green Bay was the Super Bowl pick of a lot of prognosticators coming into 2012, and this is definitely a legitimate contender. However, to my extreme delight, the Packers came crashing down into reality after a five-game winning streak this past Sunday in Giants Stadium. Green Bay has quality wins against Chicago and New Orleans, as well as a thumping of the Texans in Houston to their credit.
However, there have been points of the year (last week against the Giants, and in a Week 3 "loss" against the Seahawks), when we have seen the offensive line look very, very bad. I think that, coupled with the fact that the running game in Green Bay is pretty much non-existent, will come back to haunt the Packers down the road. I am willing to forgive a poor defensive showing against the Giants due to the fact that the unit was crippled by injuries, but even at full strength, this is not exactly a juggernaut defense.
The schedule the rest of the way is conquerable, and the Week 15 showdown in Chicago might end up deciding the NFC North. I think 11-5 is possible, but 10-6 is more likely. This is a playoff team, but there have been some parts of this team that have been exposed at different points this year, and I think it will be tough for Green Bay to win more than one playoff game.
Vikings (6-5) - This is probably the least appreciated team in the NFL with a record above .500. Their attack may not be spectacular, but with Adrian Peterson having another monster year, Minnesota will always have a great running game. I'm still not sold that Christian Ponder is good enough to lead a team to the postseason at this point though, and I am not the only person who thinks that way.
Like the rest of the NFC North, the schedule outside of the division has not been too tough. The Vikings did beat the 49ers in Week 3, and their only loss to a below .500 team was against the Redskins, who I would consider possibly the best below .500 team in the NFL. However, if there were one part of Minnesota's schedule to be worried about, it would be these final five games. Green Bay twice, Chicago, St. Louis, and Houston. That could easily be four losses.
Minnesota has had a pretty good year up until now, but I just don't believe that they can hang around all year, especially with a brutal schedule awaiting them. At this point, I think the best that Minnesota can hope for is 8-8, with 7-9 probably being a more realistic expectation.
Lions (4-7) - After finally reaching the postseason in 2011, this has been a very disappointing year in Detroit. Matthew Stafford had an enormous 2011, and although he is still putting up pretty nice numbers so far in 2012, the passing game has just not been as potent as it was a year ago. Their four victories have come against opponents with a combined record of 15-29-1, and while they have not been blown out by anyone, it has just been an underwhelming season thus far for the Lions.
The schedule the rest of the way is tough, as they still have to face the Bears, Packers, Falcons, and Colts. They still have a lot of young and talented players on offense, but at this point, I think it is pretty much a lost season. If the Lions can get to 6-10 then they should be happy.
NFC South
Falcons (10-1) - I learned my lesson with this team a few years back. Despite being tied with the Texans for the best record in the NFL, the regular season no longer has any significance to how the Atlanta Falcons should be judged. At this point, it is expected of them to reach the playoffs. It is what they do in the playoffs that needs to be the true barometer of this team.
The Falcons have been scrutinized and praised for numerous different reasons this year, but I have reached the point where I do not care. 10-1 is 10-1. That is great. They have at least three wins left in them, if not more. That means at worst Atlanta should be 13-3, and sitting pretty with a first round bye. No matter the regular season record, the seed, or where they play in the playoffs, they need to show me they can win in the postseason. There is no time like the present, Atlanta. Get it done now.
Buccaneers (6-5) - The Bucs have been another team that has been a pleasant surprise. After a very good 2010, the Bucs came nowhere close to expectations in 2011, and Greg Schiano was brought in to lead the team in 2012. I had doubts about whether or not he could succeed as an NFL head coach, but he has done a very good job up to this point.
Josh Freeman has bounced back to have a very nice year up until this point, and rookie running back Doug Martin has been spectacular. Despite the presence of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, Martin deserves consideration for Rookie of the Year, because he has been brilliant. The offseason acquisition of Vincent Jackson has really helped the entire offense as well.
Tampa Bay has not lost to any team with a record worse than 5-6. They have won the games they "should have" won based upon their record, and they have been competitive in their losses as well. However, they still have road games remaining against the Broncos, Saints, and Falcons, and those will all be extremely tough. While Tampa Bay is in position to have a shot at the playoffs, it will be tough to do so with those three games on the schedule. If they can pull out a win in any of those games though, I think 9-7 with a shot at the final playoff spot is possible. Like I said though, doing so will be by no means any easy task.
Saints (5-6) - We knew coming into the season that the Saints would be in for an interesting year, and they have given us exactly that. After an 0-4 start that included losses to the Panthers and Chiefs (who are a combined 4-18 in 2012), it looked like the season was over before we even got to October. All of the positives were being overlooked, and all of the negatives were being highlighted. However, New Orleans has been able to go 5-2 since then, and they find themselves with a legitimate chance to make the postseason.
I have given up trying to understand why some of the Saints' players suspended in the bounty scandal are actually on the field because the appeals processes are simply tiring at this point to try to comprehend. What I do know is the same thing we have known about the New Orleans Saints for the last few years. They can score a lot of points. With that great offense, they will always have a chance, but the schedule the rest of the way for the Saints is murderous.
Their next four games are with the Falcons, Giants, Bucs, and Cowboys, all four of which will be fighting for various spots in the playoffs. That means the Saints will get no favors from the competition. This team still has a shot, but I think that 0-4 early season hole they dug might just end up being too much to overcome.
If they can reach 9-7, then they will probably deserve a playoff berth. However, I just think that schedule is too tough, and 8-8, or even 7-9 are more likely scenarios. Either way, this will be a fun team to watch down the stretch.
Panthers (3-8) - Carolina has been a disappointment this year in more than one way. After his brilliant rookie season, Cam Newton has embodied the term "sophomore slump." Whether it be his on-field play or his off-field demeanor, Newton has been criticized almost non-stop throughout the season. Steve Smith has come nowhere close to matching his production from last season, the backfield of Williams and Stewart that was once near the top of the league in terms of talented duos has now just become two average backs, and many of their best players have once again fallen victim to the injury bug.
Carolina's win last night kept them out of the basement of the NFC, and they still have the Chiefs and Raiders on their schedule, so all of these games may actually help decide which team gets the first pick in next year's draft. Maybe last night's game can propel the Panthers to win at least three of their five remaining games, but I doubt it. I think 5-11 is realistic here, and pretty much everyone not named Cam Newton should be on notice that there will likely be a lot of changes in the offseason.
NFC West
49ers (8-2-1) - San Francisco is a team that has made a lot more headlines off the field recently than most first place teams would probably like. The 49ers are now in the midst of a quarterback controversy, and how this all plays out could play not only a big role in deciding who wins the NFC, but it could also play a big role in deciding who wins the Super Bowl.
The defense is solid once again, and the offense is both better and deeper at the skill positions than it was last year. The problem is the quarterback position. There are things to like about both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, and there are things to question about both of them as well. What I do know for certain is that Jim Harbaugh needs to settle on one or the other soon, or else this quandary (brought on completely by Harbaugh) could be the downfall of a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
The 49ers will play the Patriots on December 16th, and they also go to Seattle the following week. However, I think they are capable of winning at least one of those games, and they should win the other three games left on their schedule. That would make 12-3-1 a realistic goal, and that would likely be good enough to challenge for a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
It's Super Bowl or bust for the 49ers, but with a quarterback controversy that doesn't seem to be close to being solved right now, this year could end up in disappointing fashion for the 49ers. We will have to wait and see.
Seahawks (6-5) - Seattle seems to have fallen off the radar a bit, but in my eyes, I think this is still the team to beat for the final playoff spot in the NFC. That does come with a huge asterisk though. Seattle has one of the best, if not the best, secondaries in the NFL, and it was just announced that both of their starting cornerbacks (Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman) are facing possible four game suspensions for substance abuse policy infractions. If Browner and Sherman can appeal their suspensions and do not miss any time, I think Seattle can still make the playoffs. However, if both of them miss the next four games, it will be extremely tough for Seattle to make up for the loss of them both.
At full strength, I see at least three more wins on the schedule for the Seahawks. Without those two players though, I cannot say I see that. 9-7 will probably be good enough for the sixth spot in the NFC, and the fact that Seattle has already beaten both the Cowboys and the Vikings (both of whom will likely be battling for that final spot as well) really helps. If they do make the playoffs though, I doubt they will be able to win any games, but it will be a great step in the right direction for the franchise. However, without Sherman and Browner, it will probably be a struggle to reach the postseason.
Rams (4-6-1) - The Rams have been the same story now for the past few years. They just simply are not good enough to compete with the top dogs in the NFC. While they have beaten pretty good teams like the Seahawks and Redskins, they have also lost to bad teams like the Jets and Dolphins, and they were run off the field by the Patriots (although they are not the first team that has suffered such a fate).
Sam Bradford seems to be just mediocre as a quarterback, Steven Jackson is still good, but opponents really do not have to worry about much else besides him, and Danny Amendola can be excellent at times, but gets injured far too much. If nothing else, it seems like the Rams drafted pretty well, as they have gotten a lot of nice production out of rookies like Daryl Richardson, Janoris Jenkins, and Greg Zuerlein.
I look at the schedule and really see only two more wins at best, so I think 6-9-1 should be considered a success, but it will honestly likely be a stretch for St. Louis to even reach that mark.
Cardinals (4-7) - Arizona came flying out of the gate to start the year. After beating a good Seattle team in Week 1, they went into New England and pulled off a shocking win over the Patriots. They followed that game up with two more wins and stood at 4-0. Since then? Well, let's just say it has not gone nearly as well. The Cardinals have not won a game in two months, and find themselves in the midst of a seven game losing streak, and without a quarterback.
As of today, the Cardinals are starting rookie Ryan Lindley, their third different quarterback of the season. Kevin Kolb has proven himself to be overpaid, John Skelton is just not very good, and I give the Cardinals credit for throwing Lindley into the fire at this point in the year. He is a rookie, but they might as well see what he's got because this has turned into a lost season.
The Cardinals still have to go to Seattle and San Francisco, as well as play the Bears. That is probably three guaranteed losses. Their other two games are with the Jets and Lions, so I'll say that they are good enough to win one of those (which honestly might be giving Arizona too much credit). At best, the Cardinals probably go 5-11, and I really only say that because I cannot honestly believe that an NFL team can lose 12 consecutive games after starting the year 4-0.
With Lindley in there as the starting quarterback, it is clear that I am not the only person who thinks it is time for the Cardinals to look toward moving on into the future without both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton.
So that's all for my eleven week NFL season recap. One week from today, I will probably want to change all of my picks because in reality, the real NFL season is just getting started. We have learned the truth about some teams, but we also have a whole lot more to learn before this season comes to a close.
NFC East
Giants (7-4) - As has been the case in recent years, the Giants are the prime example of how long an NFL season really is. There are ups and downs along the way for all 32 teams, but it always seems like the ups and downs of the Giants are far more extreme than most teams. The Giants have put in dominating efforts multiple times, including blowout victories over two of the NFL's best teams, the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers. However, they have also been blown out by the Bengals, lost to what we now know is a bad Eagles team, and looked terrible in a loss at home against the Steelers.
With all of that being said, the schedule has been very tough, and the Giants hold a commanding lead in the division. However, the schedule gets no easier, as the Giants still have to play the Redskins once more, as well as the Saints, Falcons, Ravens, and Eagles. It is sometimes impossible to predict how this team will play from week to week, but I think that anything less than 10-6 should be considered a disappointment here, and the fan in me still believes that anything less than a Super Bowl should be considered a disappointment at this point as well.
Redskins (5-6) - Now here is a team that will be very interesting to watch not only for the remainder of 2012, but for the near future as well. Robert Griffin III has already, in my eyes, surpassed expectations as a rookie quarterback. He has been sensational for much of the year. He put on a spectacular performance at Giants Stadium back in October, and it took another fourth quarter miracle from our two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback to beat Washington. A lot of credit should be given to the coaching staff of the Redskins, as they have done what I believe only the best coaches in sports can do. Instead of forcing Griffin to fit into their previous system, they have instead built a system that plays to his strengths and it has paid off so far.
Although they are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture right now, they are only one game out of the final spot. They are battling a lot of teams for that final position though, and I would be very surprised if they were able to reach the postseason. I think 8-8 should be a realistic goal for Washington, and they are definitely trending upwards with what appears to be a franchise quarterback finally on their roster.
Cowboys (5-6) - Different year, same problems in Dallas. The Cowboys are extremely unpredictable from week to week, yet they are extremely predictable in terms of how their final record will look. Once again, they have had great wins and horrible losses. Once again, they have had guys make great plays, and the same guys also make terrible mistakes. Once again, the coach is on the hot seat, the owner is lurking far too close than he should be, and Dallas is mediocre.
I am obviously not going to write Dallas off yet, but they have an uphill climb in front of them, for a multitude of reasons, to make the postseason. The schedule does not do them many favors either, as they still have to play the Saints, Steelers, Redskins, and Bengals. At best, I say they get to 9-7 and contend for the final playoff spot. Realistically though, I think that 8-8 is more likely.
Eagles (3-8) - 2012 will likely go down as a season in which the Philadelphia Eagles officially hit rock bottom. The Eagles fell far below expectations last season, and going into 2012, it seemed like the team, as currently constructed, would have a second chance. Well, the Eagles have taken that chance and failed miserably in nearly every way. Offense, defense, coaching, management...each part of the organization can share the blame here. Their loss at home against the Panthers last night not only dropped them another game back in the division, it actually dropped them into dead last in the entire NFC, something I doubt even the most ardent Eagles hater could have predicted.
It is pretty much a guarantee at this point that we will see wholesale changes in Philadelphia after this season, and it is likely that they will begin with the exit of the head coach and starting quarterback. Injuries have really hurt the offensive line, but the players they have up front now have just not been good at all. Somehow, the defense has probably been just as bad, if not worse, than the offensive line, and we will probably see a lot of new names on defense in 2013 as well.
All five of the Eagles' final games are against teams with some sort of playoff aspirations, so it would not surprise me at all to see them lose all five of them. However, they still get the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins once each, and division games (especially in the NFC East) are always unpredictable, so I will say that the Eagles will win at least one of them. If they can beat either Cincinnati or Tampa Bay and finish at 5-12, I think that is the best they can hope for. Do not get me wrong though, no matter what happens the rest of the way, this has been a pathetic season for the Eagles.
NFC North
Bears (8-3) - Chicago is another interesting team. Their 8-3 record seems to reflect exactly where they should be if you look at their schedule, but that might also be the problem. The three best teams that the Bears have played (Green Bay, San Francisco, and Houston) have all resulted in losses. Yes, Jay Cutler was injured for the Houston and San Francisco games, but Chicago does not really have any impressive wins.
It seems like the same few problems that have plagued the Bears in recent years might be cropping up again as well. Matt Forte and Jay Cutler can never seem to get through an entire season without getting hurt, and the offensive line is still below-average.
The schedule is not too tough on paper the rest of the way, but as I have said before, they still have three divisional games to go, and those are never easy. I think 11-5 is a realistic goal for the Bears, and anything better than that will probably mean a first-round bye in the playoffs. What they do once they get there will be the true test though.
Packers (7-4) - Green Bay was the Super Bowl pick of a lot of prognosticators coming into 2012, and this is definitely a legitimate contender. However, to my extreme delight, the Packers came crashing down into reality after a five-game winning streak this past Sunday in Giants Stadium. Green Bay has quality wins against Chicago and New Orleans, as well as a thumping of the Texans in Houston to their credit.
However, there have been points of the year (last week against the Giants, and in a Week 3 "loss" against the Seahawks), when we have seen the offensive line look very, very bad. I think that, coupled with the fact that the running game in Green Bay is pretty much non-existent, will come back to haunt the Packers down the road. I am willing to forgive a poor defensive showing against the Giants due to the fact that the unit was crippled by injuries, but even at full strength, this is not exactly a juggernaut defense.
The schedule the rest of the way is conquerable, and the Week 15 showdown in Chicago might end up deciding the NFC North. I think 11-5 is possible, but 10-6 is more likely. This is a playoff team, but there have been some parts of this team that have been exposed at different points this year, and I think it will be tough for Green Bay to win more than one playoff game.
Vikings (6-5) - This is probably the least appreciated team in the NFL with a record above .500. Their attack may not be spectacular, but with Adrian Peterson having another monster year, Minnesota will always have a great running game. I'm still not sold that Christian Ponder is good enough to lead a team to the postseason at this point though, and I am not the only person who thinks that way.
Like the rest of the NFC North, the schedule outside of the division has not been too tough. The Vikings did beat the 49ers in Week 3, and their only loss to a below .500 team was against the Redskins, who I would consider possibly the best below .500 team in the NFL. However, if there were one part of Minnesota's schedule to be worried about, it would be these final five games. Green Bay twice, Chicago, St. Louis, and Houston. That could easily be four losses.
Minnesota has had a pretty good year up until now, but I just don't believe that they can hang around all year, especially with a brutal schedule awaiting them. At this point, I think the best that Minnesota can hope for is 8-8, with 7-9 probably being a more realistic expectation.
Lions (4-7) - After finally reaching the postseason in 2011, this has been a very disappointing year in Detroit. Matthew Stafford had an enormous 2011, and although he is still putting up pretty nice numbers so far in 2012, the passing game has just not been as potent as it was a year ago. Their four victories have come against opponents with a combined record of 15-29-1, and while they have not been blown out by anyone, it has just been an underwhelming season thus far for the Lions.
The schedule the rest of the way is tough, as they still have to face the Bears, Packers, Falcons, and Colts. They still have a lot of young and talented players on offense, but at this point, I think it is pretty much a lost season. If the Lions can get to 6-10 then they should be happy.
NFC South
Falcons (10-1) - I learned my lesson with this team a few years back. Despite being tied with the Texans for the best record in the NFL, the regular season no longer has any significance to how the Atlanta Falcons should be judged. At this point, it is expected of them to reach the playoffs. It is what they do in the playoffs that needs to be the true barometer of this team.
The Falcons have been scrutinized and praised for numerous different reasons this year, but I have reached the point where I do not care. 10-1 is 10-1. That is great. They have at least three wins left in them, if not more. That means at worst Atlanta should be 13-3, and sitting pretty with a first round bye. No matter the regular season record, the seed, or where they play in the playoffs, they need to show me they can win in the postseason. There is no time like the present, Atlanta. Get it done now.
Buccaneers (6-5) - The Bucs have been another team that has been a pleasant surprise. After a very good 2010, the Bucs came nowhere close to expectations in 2011, and Greg Schiano was brought in to lead the team in 2012. I had doubts about whether or not he could succeed as an NFL head coach, but he has done a very good job up to this point.
Josh Freeman has bounced back to have a very nice year up until this point, and rookie running back Doug Martin has been spectacular. Despite the presence of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, Martin deserves consideration for Rookie of the Year, because he has been brilliant. The offseason acquisition of Vincent Jackson has really helped the entire offense as well.
Tampa Bay has not lost to any team with a record worse than 5-6. They have won the games they "should have" won based upon their record, and they have been competitive in their losses as well. However, they still have road games remaining against the Broncos, Saints, and Falcons, and those will all be extremely tough. While Tampa Bay is in position to have a shot at the playoffs, it will be tough to do so with those three games on the schedule. If they can pull out a win in any of those games though, I think 9-7 with a shot at the final playoff spot is possible. Like I said though, doing so will be by no means any easy task.
Saints (5-6) - We knew coming into the season that the Saints would be in for an interesting year, and they have given us exactly that. After an 0-4 start that included losses to the Panthers and Chiefs (who are a combined 4-18 in 2012), it looked like the season was over before we even got to October. All of the positives were being overlooked, and all of the negatives were being highlighted. However, New Orleans has been able to go 5-2 since then, and they find themselves with a legitimate chance to make the postseason.
I have given up trying to understand why some of the Saints' players suspended in the bounty scandal are actually on the field because the appeals processes are simply tiring at this point to try to comprehend. What I do know is the same thing we have known about the New Orleans Saints for the last few years. They can score a lot of points. With that great offense, they will always have a chance, but the schedule the rest of the way for the Saints is murderous.
Their next four games are with the Falcons, Giants, Bucs, and Cowboys, all four of which will be fighting for various spots in the playoffs. That means the Saints will get no favors from the competition. This team still has a shot, but I think that 0-4 early season hole they dug might just end up being too much to overcome.
If they can reach 9-7, then they will probably deserve a playoff berth. However, I just think that schedule is too tough, and 8-8, or even 7-9 are more likely scenarios. Either way, this will be a fun team to watch down the stretch.
Panthers (3-8) - Carolina has been a disappointment this year in more than one way. After his brilliant rookie season, Cam Newton has embodied the term "sophomore slump." Whether it be his on-field play or his off-field demeanor, Newton has been criticized almost non-stop throughout the season. Steve Smith has come nowhere close to matching his production from last season, the backfield of Williams and Stewart that was once near the top of the league in terms of talented duos has now just become two average backs, and many of their best players have once again fallen victim to the injury bug.
Carolina's win last night kept them out of the basement of the NFC, and they still have the Chiefs and Raiders on their schedule, so all of these games may actually help decide which team gets the first pick in next year's draft. Maybe last night's game can propel the Panthers to win at least three of their five remaining games, but I doubt it. I think 5-11 is realistic here, and pretty much everyone not named Cam Newton should be on notice that there will likely be a lot of changes in the offseason.
NFC West
49ers (8-2-1) - San Francisco is a team that has made a lot more headlines off the field recently than most first place teams would probably like. The 49ers are now in the midst of a quarterback controversy, and how this all plays out could play not only a big role in deciding who wins the NFC, but it could also play a big role in deciding who wins the Super Bowl.
The defense is solid once again, and the offense is both better and deeper at the skill positions than it was last year. The problem is the quarterback position. There are things to like about both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, and there are things to question about both of them as well. What I do know for certain is that Jim Harbaugh needs to settle on one or the other soon, or else this quandary (brought on completely by Harbaugh) could be the downfall of a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
The 49ers will play the Patriots on December 16th, and they also go to Seattle the following week. However, I think they are capable of winning at least one of those games, and they should win the other three games left on their schedule. That would make 12-3-1 a realistic goal, and that would likely be good enough to challenge for a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
It's Super Bowl or bust for the 49ers, but with a quarterback controversy that doesn't seem to be close to being solved right now, this year could end up in disappointing fashion for the 49ers. We will have to wait and see.
Seahawks (6-5) - Seattle seems to have fallen off the radar a bit, but in my eyes, I think this is still the team to beat for the final playoff spot in the NFC. That does come with a huge asterisk though. Seattle has one of the best, if not the best, secondaries in the NFL, and it was just announced that both of their starting cornerbacks (Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman) are facing possible four game suspensions for substance abuse policy infractions. If Browner and Sherman can appeal their suspensions and do not miss any time, I think Seattle can still make the playoffs. However, if both of them miss the next four games, it will be extremely tough for Seattle to make up for the loss of them both.
At full strength, I see at least three more wins on the schedule for the Seahawks. Without those two players though, I cannot say I see that. 9-7 will probably be good enough for the sixth spot in the NFC, and the fact that Seattle has already beaten both the Cowboys and the Vikings (both of whom will likely be battling for that final spot as well) really helps. If they do make the playoffs though, I doubt they will be able to win any games, but it will be a great step in the right direction for the franchise. However, without Sherman and Browner, it will probably be a struggle to reach the postseason.
Rams (4-6-1) - The Rams have been the same story now for the past few years. They just simply are not good enough to compete with the top dogs in the NFC. While they have beaten pretty good teams like the Seahawks and Redskins, they have also lost to bad teams like the Jets and Dolphins, and they were run off the field by the Patriots (although they are not the first team that has suffered such a fate).
Sam Bradford seems to be just mediocre as a quarterback, Steven Jackson is still good, but opponents really do not have to worry about much else besides him, and Danny Amendola can be excellent at times, but gets injured far too much. If nothing else, it seems like the Rams drafted pretty well, as they have gotten a lot of nice production out of rookies like Daryl Richardson, Janoris Jenkins, and Greg Zuerlein.
I look at the schedule and really see only two more wins at best, so I think 6-9-1 should be considered a success, but it will honestly likely be a stretch for St. Louis to even reach that mark.
Cardinals (4-7) - Arizona came flying out of the gate to start the year. After beating a good Seattle team in Week 1, they went into New England and pulled off a shocking win over the Patriots. They followed that game up with two more wins and stood at 4-0. Since then? Well, let's just say it has not gone nearly as well. The Cardinals have not won a game in two months, and find themselves in the midst of a seven game losing streak, and without a quarterback.
As of today, the Cardinals are starting rookie Ryan Lindley, their third different quarterback of the season. Kevin Kolb has proven himself to be overpaid, John Skelton is just not very good, and I give the Cardinals credit for throwing Lindley into the fire at this point in the year. He is a rookie, but they might as well see what he's got because this has turned into a lost season.
The Cardinals still have to go to Seattle and San Francisco, as well as play the Bears. That is probably three guaranteed losses. Their other two games are with the Jets and Lions, so I'll say that they are good enough to win one of those (which honestly might be giving Arizona too much credit). At best, the Cardinals probably go 5-11, and I really only say that because I cannot honestly believe that an NFL team can lose 12 consecutive games after starting the year 4-0.
With Lindley in there as the starting quarterback, it is clear that I am not the only person who thinks it is time for the Cardinals to look toward moving on into the future without both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton.
So that's all for my eleven week NFL season recap. One week from today, I will probably want to change all of my picks because in reality, the real NFL season is just getting started. We have learned the truth about some teams, but we also have a whole lot more to learn before this season comes to a close.
Monday, November 26, 2012
AFC Season Recap (so far)
Since today is Monday and I've been reading and hearing about nothing but football all day, I thought that this would be a good time to take a look back at the first 11 weeks of the NFL season. One week from today, we will officially be 3/4 of the way through the year, so at this point of any NFL regular season we always know two things. The first? We have learned a lot over the three months of the season we have watched. The second? We know next to nothing about what will happen from here on out.
Since games are only played once each week, there is always more than enough time in between games to analyze and critique each and every part of each and every team. There is a lot we know, but there is also still a long way to go. I'll go through each team, give a short take on how I feel about them, and then give you my opinion about how I think the rest of their season will go. I'll start in the AFC East.
Patriots (8-3) - As usual, New England is easily the best team in the AFC East. The Pats have relied a lot more on the running game this year than they have over the past few years. Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen have combined to form a nice combination in the backfield and it has provided a tremendous boost because many of Tom Brady's targets in the passing game have been in and out of the lineup due to injuries.
With a three game lead, the Patriots should easily win this division. We will, however, get two very interesting matchups in mid-December, as New England still has to play Houston and San Francisco. This should be a team that challenges for at least a bye in the first round of the playoffs, if not the top seed overall in the AFC.
Dolphins (5-6) - As their 5-6 record would demonstrate, the Dolphins have been up and down this year. Their drafting of Ryan Tannehill was highly scrutinized, and while he has definitely suffered some rookie bumps and bruises along the way, he has also shown some good flashes as well (431 yards in Week 4). There are some nice pieces, but there are still a lot of missing pieces as well. They still have to play New England twice and go to San Francisco though, so I think the Dolphins should consider themselves lucky to get to 8-8.
Bills (4-7) - I thought that Buffalo would be able to finish second in this division before the season started, and that might still happen. However, it may happen more so because the AFC East is not as good from top to bottom as I thought it could be than the Bills actually putting together a good year.
Fred Jackson seems like he is getting closer and closer to one of those guys who is good when he is healthy, but can never stay healthy for the majority of the year. C.J. Spiller is great if he can split carries with another back, but I'm not convinced that he can be the bell cow back that Buffalo needs since Jackson seems to always be hurt.
The defense has not been good, as they have surrendered 48, 52, 45, 35, and 37 points in five of their losses. Four of Buffalo's final five games will be at home though, and only one of those games is against a team with any truly realistic shot at making the playoffs (Seattle), so I think 8-8 is still possible here.
Jets (4-7) - There isn't really much to say here that hasn't already been said. Their Thanksgiving day loss against the Patriots was a complete disaster and included one of the most comically bad plays that I have ever seen when Mark Sanchez ran into the backside of his own offensive lineman, fumbled the ball, and the Patriots ran it back for a touchdown.
The loss of Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes obviously have been too much to overcome, but this just simply is not a good football team. There are huge questions at the quarterback and running back positions (not exactly good positions to have questions about), and unless your name is Nick Mangold or Darrelle Revis, you need to be concerned about your job security here (and that includes the coaching staff and the management as well).
AFC North
Ravens (9-2) - This is a really interesting team. It seems like most of the time you hear about the Ravens, it is something about what they cannot do. They lost two of their best defensive players to injury, so they can't stop anyone. Their quarterback is not good enough to win the big games. Many of the key players on their roster are too old. However, here we are, with five games to go, and the Ravens are 9-2 and own the second best record in the AFC.
So, with that said, I'll give you more reasons to doubt Baltimore. They have really had only one win against a playoff caliber team (31-30 over New England in Week 3). The Ravens killed the Bengals in Week 1 and also beat the Cowboys in Week 6, but those teams are still both not playoff teams as of today. The Ravens beat the Steelers eight days ago, but it was a Steelers team that was clearly not at full strength, as they were being led by an injured Byron Leftwich.
The final five games of the season for the Ravens will all be tough, as they will face Pittsburgh again, Washington, Denver, the Giants, and Cincinnati. Ray Lewis also might be able to return in late December, and if that happens, it will provide an enormous boost to not only the defense, but the entire team.
You cannot argue with 9-2. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the AFC. However, we will learn a lot about them over the next five weeks. I honestly say that I don't believe they will be able to hold on to one of the top two spots in the conference, but this should be a team that can win at least one playoff game, and it wouldn't surprise me if they win more. Super Bowl? Possibly, but at this point I can't say that I think Baltimore will still be playing in February.
Steelers (6-5) - Now this is a team that we have learned a ton about over the past two weeks. Going into their Week 11 matchup with Baltimore, the Steelers were sitting pretty at 6-3 and seemingly poised to make the playoffs. However, when Ben Roethlisberger went down with a shoulder injury, we really saw how much he meant to this team. Byron Leftwich started in Week 11, and Charlie Batch started in Week 12 (thanks to a Leftwich injury), and Pittsburgh now sits at 6-5 with a ton of question marks surrounding them.
An absolutely dreadful performance against the Browns yesterday in which the Steelers turned the ball over eight times (EIGHT!) and Charlie Batch demonstrated why he is no longer suited to start at quarterback in the NFL, means that Pittsburgh now has a fight on its hands to simply get into the playoffs.
There is no doubting Ben Roethlisberger's toughness, but there still is doubt as to whether he will physically be able to return soon enough to save the Steelers from their new found quarterback conundrum. With him at at least 75% health, the Steelers can at least make the playoffs, although I doubt they will be able to win a game once they get there. Without him, I think Pittsburgh is in serious trouble.
I would be very surprised to see this team overtake Baltimore in the division, and I think that a Wild Card berth is the best they can hope for.
Bengals (6-5) - After a 3-5 start, it seemed like most people (myself included) had written off Cincinnati. However, after three consecutive wins (one that included a pounding of my New York Giants), the Bengals find themselves in the middle of a playoff chase with a legitimate shot at the postseason. With their last three wins being by a combined 64 points, the Bengals are now serious contenders for the playoffs. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis has run well over the past two games, and A.J. Green is now unquestionably one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Cincinnati gets probably the three most schizophrenic teams in the NFL over the next three weeks in San Diego, Dallas, and Philadelphia, so there is no telling what will happen over that stretch. Following that, they face division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Depending on whether or not those teams feel like showing up or whether or not they are fully healthy might define the Bengals' season. I think 10-6 is a stretch here, but 9-7 is definitely possible, and in what seems to be an AFC that is weaker than normal, the Bengals should have a shot at a Wild Card berth.
Browns (3-8) - As expected, Cleveland is bringing up the rear in this division. It has been a while since the Browns have competed for a spot in the postseason, and they will not be doing so in 2012. It is tough to put a positive spin on the Browns' season, but I will try to do just that. I saw them in person at Giants Stadium in Week 5, and they rolled to an early 14-0 lead but just couldn't keep up with the Giants and ended up losing by two touchdowns. However, that was their biggest loss of the year, and they have not lost any of their other games by more than 10 points.
Cleveland seems to have definitely found its number one running back in Trent Richardson, and while Brandon Weeden may not be spectacular, I think that he could at least be good enough to complement an offense that is based upon Richardson's running.
I think if they can win two of their last five games to finish at 5-11, they should be happy. This team will honestly probably not be seriously competitive for at least a few more years, but the optimist in me says that they might at least be trending a bit upwards (a bit).
AFC South
Texans (10-1) - 11 games, 10 wins. Victories over Denver and Chicago, and a stomping of Baltimore. That should speak for itself, right? Well, probably. But not certainly. There are a whole lot of reasons to like this team, and only a few reasons to doubt them. They have stars on both sides of the ball. They won a playoff game last season with their third string quarterback, and thus far, their starting quarterback has been healthy. They have one of the best running backs in the league. They have one of the best (when healthy) wide receivers in the league. They have a possible Defensive MVP candidate on their defensive line.
The Texans have a whole lot of things going for them right now. I'm extremely confident that Houston can win the AFC South, and I believe that they can make serious noise in the postseason. The Packers destroyed them in Week 6 on a Sunday night, but I am willing to overlook that as an outlier because of the way that they have played in every game other than that one.
The final five games feature one at New England (which should be a great game to see), as well as two with the Colts. Aside from that, they get Tennessee and Minnesota. If I am on the Texans, I am obviously shooting for 5-0 over the final five games, but I'll say that they should go 4-1. At worst they go 2-3, but I highly doubt that. That means that Houston could possibly go 14-2 and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. We saw them play the Bangals last year at home in the playoffs, and the crowd played a huge role in helping Houston win that game. If they get every playoff game at home this year, it is Super Bowl or bust for this team. If not, I think that they are still equipped to make a run to a championship.
This is no doubt one of the best teams in the NFL right now. However, they have a roster full of unproven postseason performers so that is really my only concern here. If there is one team poised to make an unprecedented run (in terms of the history of the franchise) to the Super Bowl, it is this team. I will not be fully convinced until January, but the Texans are no doubt legitimate Super Bowl contenders right now.
Colts (7-4) - In my eyes, the Indianapolis Colts have been by far the most pleasant surprise in the NFL so far this season. After a terrible 2011 season, the Colts drafted Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in the draft and the re-building process was underway. However, it seems like someone forgot to tell the Colts that a re-building process was supposed to be measured in years and not weeks. After a bit of a rough start, the Colts now own the first Wild Card spot in the AFC, and have their postseason destiny in their own hands.
First, I have to give credit to the front office of the Colts. As tough as it must have been to let a legend like Peyton Manning go, I still firmly believe that the team made the right decision by doing so. Andrew Luck was not only projected to be a standout quarterback, but he has proven just as much through 11 games so far this year. There have obviously been rookie bumps and bruises along the way, but there have been more signature moments than bumps and bruises, and when Peyton Manning is making his Hall of Fame induction speech, the Colts will be glad that they still have Luck running their offense. As if that decision wasn't enough, rookies like Dwayne Allen, T.Y. Hilton, and Vick Ballard have played big roles in the team's success as well.
The signature win of the year was clearly in Week 5 over the Green Bay Packers when Luck led the team down the field and hit Reggie Wayne for the winning touchdown, but it seems like Chuck Pagano's fight against leukemia has propelled this team to its winning ways all season. In my eyes, Indianapolis has already far surpassed expectations in 2012. At this point, this is just one of those dream seasons that are few and far between. The Colts are in great position to make the playoffs, and as long as they aren't playing the Giants, then I'm cheering for the Colts.
Titans (4-7) - Tennessee has been up and down a bunch this year, but the down has been more prevalent than the up, and that is reflected in their 4-7 record. The Titans won a shootout against the Lions in overtime and beat the Steelers, but they were also demolished by the Patriots, Bears, and Texans. In the end, it simply comes down to the Titans just not really having enough talent to beat the better teams on their schedule.
There are a few pieces here on both offense and defense, but in the end, Tennessee just does not have enough to match up with any contending teams in the AFC. If they can win three more games from here on out, I think they should consider that a success. For now though, I'll go with 6-10 for the Titans.
Jaguars (2-9) - To be truthful, there really is just not enough talent here. Jacksonville has some good players, but throughout the majority of the roster, they just do not match up with the rest of their schedule, let alone the rest of the AFC. They have gone back and forth between Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at the quarterback position, and it's obvious that neither of them is the long term answer at the position. Maurice Jones-Drew led the NFL in rushing in 2011, but he has missed much of this season, and they have been unable to find a quality replacement for him. Their number one draft pick, wide receiver Justin Blackmon, was extremely quiet throughout most of the beginning of the season, but he has come on in the past few games and finally shown what most of us thought he was capable of doing.
Without a true number one quarterback though, the Jaguars have no shot at any kind of success in the near future. This year's incoming quarterback draft class is not very impressive (at least in my eyes) either, so by the time Jacksonville might have a legitimate shot to get a franchise QB, their franchise running back might be done. I don't see much success in the future of this team, and I think that if they are able to reach 4-12, then it should be considered a "success."
AFC West
Broncos (8-3) - Now here we have an incredibly interesting, and potentially lethal, team. The Broncos made the biggest offseason splash by signing future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, but due somewhat in part to a murderous early season schedule, they were not considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. However, now that Denver has made it through that tough schedule at 8-3, it is time to start looking at them as a serious threat to win it all.
First off, the AFC West has been a horrible disappointment in terms of depth in the division. The Chargers stink, and they are the best of the rest. So that means that Denver is on track to easily win the division, and they should be thinking about a first round bye at this point.
One of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game has obviously provided this team with a huge boost, and although their "skill" position players may not all be household names, Peyton Manning has done a great job of helping them reach their potentials. The Broncos did lose to the Patriots, Texans, and Falcons (three surefire playoff teams), but I think that thanks in part to their easier schedule, and also in part to their ability to continue to gel as a team, Denver has to be considered as a legitimate contender to win the AFC.
Every game from here on out could be a win, and I think they should consider anything less than 12-4 a disappointment. It is obviously not a given, but if this team fails to win at least one playoff game, then this season should be considered a disappointment. If they won the Super Bowl, let me say it right now, I would not be surprised.
Chargers (4-7) - Ok, I am officially done with San Diego. They are the Dallas Cowboys of the AFC (and that is not a compliment), but somehow always seem to be even worse than that. I am looking at my USA Today 2012 NFL preview magazine right now, and I wish I had the foresight that the writers of that magazine had. They predicted that the Chargers would be last in the AFC West. While it is highly unlikely that they will finish last, the Chargers have already proven that the only thing that is true about them is the fact that they will never meet expectations.
Despite a talented roster and a highly respected offensive-minded coach (sound familiar, Dallas fans?), this is just not a good team. There are stars and there are duds. There are injuries. There are inconsistencies. Whatever it takes to derail a team is what has happened year after year in San Diego.
Yesterday, the Chargers had the Baltimore Ravens in the palm of their hands. They had a 13-10 lead with the Ravens facing a 4th & 29, yet somehow, Baltimore turned that into a first down and eventually, an overtime victory. Now, credit is due where credit is deserved, and Ray Rice made a spectacular play, gave a spectacular effort, and got spectacular help (although Anquan Boldin may have...possibly...PROBABLY...gotten away with a block in the back), but the moral of the story is that the Chargers simply do not deserve to be considered a contender.
They have talented players at the positions you need to have talented players, but the way this team is constructed, this just isn't going to work. At this point, if I were (general manager) A.J. Smith, I would honestly consider trading Philip Rivers, because the way things have gone since he has been drafted have led me to believe that not only does San Diego need a new quarterback, but it needs an entire new regime to take charge of a franchise in flux.
Raiders (3-8) - The 2012 Oakland Raiders are pretty much exactly what most people probably expected. They simply are just not good enough to challenge for a spot in the playoffs. Whether it is because the offense cannot stay healthy or just cannot score enough points, or because the defense just is not very good, the Raiders are just not a good team.
Their signature win of the season was in Week 3 against the Steelers, but their schedule has been marked by far more blowout losses than signature wins. Over the past four games, the Raiders have given up 42, 55, 38, and 34 points, and not surprisingly, all four of those games have been losses.
Carson Palmer has put up nice numbers, but that is partly due to the fact that the Raiders constantly find themselves involved in shootout games in which defense is optional by either team. Darren McFadden is good when he is healthy, but never seems to be fully healthy, and the defense is just not very good. The final five games are not too tough, but since we are talking about a below-average team like the Raiders here, I would have to say that 5-11 is the best that they can hope for.
Chiefs (1-10) - This is a team that I must say I expected far too much of (although if you look at the preseason predictions of most, I am not the only one guilty of that). I thought that the quarterback position in Kansas City was only a small deterrent to a team that seemed to have a good amount of talent throughout the roster, but boy, was I wrong there.
The quarterback position has been a complete disaster for the Chiefs. Kansas City is competing with the Jets and the Cardinals right now for the worst quarterback situation in the entire NFL. Matt Cassel has proven that his good year with the Patriots was obviously a product of New England's system, and not a product of his own talent. Due to his poor play, Chiefs fans have clamored for Brady Quinn, and if a fan base is clamoring for Brady Quinn to start, then you know that the quarterback situation must be dire.
The offensive struggles have marred the Chiefs, as their defense has honestly not been egregiously bad in recent weeks, but they have only mustered one touchdown in the past three games. I don't care how well you play defense, if you cannot score more than seven points on offense, you are not going to win NFL games. At this point, the Chiefs need to be hoping that they get a top five draft pick and that whoever they pick ends up being a superstar.
That's all for my AFC 3/4 season preview. Just to re-iterate my feelings, I have to say that the current playoff seedings should be close to how we actually finish in January. If Houston does not get a first-round bye, then I will be shocked, and it should be between Baltimore and New England (although I give the edge right now to the Patriots), for the #2 seed. Denver and the loser of that battle for #2 seem to be in the clear, and despite the problems that the Steelers face, I still think that they are a playoff team.
The Colts are in good shape as far as won-loss record goes, but they are still less proven than Pittsburgh. If anyone has a chance to crash this playoff party, it is the Cincinnati Bengals, but I still think that is a long shot.
As of right now, I have to say that I think the Texans, Patriots, and Broncos are legitimate Super Bowl contenders coming out of the AFC, but as I said before, we still have a whole lot to learn over the next five weeks.
Since games are only played once each week, there is always more than enough time in between games to analyze and critique each and every part of each and every team. There is a lot we know, but there is also still a long way to go. I'll go through each team, give a short take on how I feel about them, and then give you my opinion about how I think the rest of their season will go. I'll start in the AFC East.
Patriots (8-3) - As usual, New England is easily the best team in the AFC East. The Pats have relied a lot more on the running game this year than they have over the past few years. Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen have combined to form a nice combination in the backfield and it has provided a tremendous boost because many of Tom Brady's targets in the passing game have been in and out of the lineup due to injuries.
With a three game lead, the Patriots should easily win this division. We will, however, get two very interesting matchups in mid-December, as New England still has to play Houston and San Francisco. This should be a team that challenges for at least a bye in the first round of the playoffs, if not the top seed overall in the AFC.
Dolphins (5-6) - As their 5-6 record would demonstrate, the Dolphins have been up and down this year. Their drafting of Ryan Tannehill was highly scrutinized, and while he has definitely suffered some rookie bumps and bruises along the way, he has also shown some good flashes as well (431 yards in Week 4). There are some nice pieces, but there are still a lot of missing pieces as well. They still have to play New England twice and go to San Francisco though, so I think the Dolphins should consider themselves lucky to get to 8-8.
Bills (4-7) - I thought that Buffalo would be able to finish second in this division before the season started, and that might still happen. However, it may happen more so because the AFC East is not as good from top to bottom as I thought it could be than the Bills actually putting together a good year.
Fred Jackson seems like he is getting closer and closer to one of those guys who is good when he is healthy, but can never stay healthy for the majority of the year. C.J. Spiller is great if he can split carries with another back, but I'm not convinced that he can be the bell cow back that Buffalo needs since Jackson seems to always be hurt.
The defense has not been good, as they have surrendered 48, 52, 45, 35, and 37 points in five of their losses. Four of Buffalo's final five games will be at home though, and only one of those games is against a team with any truly realistic shot at making the playoffs (Seattle), so I think 8-8 is still possible here.
Jets (4-7) - There isn't really much to say here that hasn't already been said. Their Thanksgiving day loss against the Patriots was a complete disaster and included one of the most comically bad plays that I have ever seen when Mark Sanchez ran into the backside of his own offensive lineman, fumbled the ball, and the Patriots ran it back for a touchdown.
The loss of Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes obviously have been too much to overcome, but this just simply is not a good football team. There are huge questions at the quarterback and running back positions (not exactly good positions to have questions about), and unless your name is Nick Mangold or Darrelle Revis, you need to be concerned about your job security here (and that includes the coaching staff and the management as well).
AFC North
Ravens (9-2) - This is a really interesting team. It seems like most of the time you hear about the Ravens, it is something about what they cannot do. They lost two of their best defensive players to injury, so they can't stop anyone. Their quarterback is not good enough to win the big games. Many of the key players on their roster are too old. However, here we are, with five games to go, and the Ravens are 9-2 and own the second best record in the AFC.
So, with that said, I'll give you more reasons to doubt Baltimore. They have really had only one win against a playoff caliber team (31-30 over New England in Week 3). The Ravens killed the Bengals in Week 1 and also beat the Cowboys in Week 6, but those teams are still both not playoff teams as of today. The Ravens beat the Steelers eight days ago, but it was a Steelers team that was clearly not at full strength, as they were being led by an injured Byron Leftwich.
The final five games of the season for the Ravens will all be tough, as they will face Pittsburgh again, Washington, Denver, the Giants, and Cincinnati. Ray Lewis also might be able to return in late December, and if that happens, it will provide an enormous boost to not only the defense, but the entire team.
You cannot argue with 9-2. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the AFC. However, we will learn a lot about them over the next five weeks. I honestly say that I don't believe they will be able to hold on to one of the top two spots in the conference, but this should be a team that can win at least one playoff game, and it wouldn't surprise me if they win more. Super Bowl? Possibly, but at this point I can't say that I think Baltimore will still be playing in February.
Steelers (6-5) - Now this is a team that we have learned a ton about over the past two weeks. Going into their Week 11 matchup with Baltimore, the Steelers were sitting pretty at 6-3 and seemingly poised to make the playoffs. However, when Ben Roethlisberger went down with a shoulder injury, we really saw how much he meant to this team. Byron Leftwich started in Week 11, and Charlie Batch started in Week 12 (thanks to a Leftwich injury), and Pittsburgh now sits at 6-5 with a ton of question marks surrounding them.
An absolutely dreadful performance against the Browns yesterday in which the Steelers turned the ball over eight times (EIGHT!) and Charlie Batch demonstrated why he is no longer suited to start at quarterback in the NFL, means that Pittsburgh now has a fight on its hands to simply get into the playoffs.
There is no doubting Ben Roethlisberger's toughness, but there still is doubt as to whether he will physically be able to return soon enough to save the Steelers from their new found quarterback conundrum. With him at at least 75% health, the Steelers can at least make the playoffs, although I doubt they will be able to win a game once they get there. Without him, I think Pittsburgh is in serious trouble.
I would be very surprised to see this team overtake Baltimore in the division, and I think that a Wild Card berth is the best they can hope for.
Bengals (6-5) - After a 3-5 start, it seemed like most people (myself included) had written off Cincinnati. However, after three consecutive wins (one that included a pounding of my New York Giants), the Bengals find themselves in the middle of a playoff chase with a legitimate shot at the postseason. With their last three wins being by a combined 64 points, the Bengals are now serious contenders for the playoffs. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis has run well over the past two games, and A.J. Green is now unquestionably one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Cincinnati gets probably the three most schizophrenic teams in the NFL over the next three weeks in San Diego, Dallas, and Philadelphia, so there is no telling what will happen over that stretch. Following that, they face division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Depending on whether or not those teams feel like showing up or whether or not they are fully healthy might define the Bengals' season. I think 10-6 is a stretch here, but 9-7 is definitely possible, and in what seems to be an AFC that is weaker than normal, the Bengals should have a shot at a Wild Card berth.
Browns (3-8) - As expected, Cleveland is bringing up the rear in this division. It has been a while since the Browns have competed for a spot in the postseason, and they will not be doing so in 2012. It is tough to put a positive spin on the Browns' season, but I will try to do just that. I saw them in person at Giants Stadium in Week 5, and they rolled to an early 14-0 lead but just couldn't keep up with the Giants and ended up losing by two touchdowns. However, that was their biggest loss of the year, and they have not lost any of their other games by more than 10 points.
Cleveland seems to have definitely found its number one running back in Trent Richardson, and while Brandon Weeden may not be spectacular, I think that he could at least be good enough to complement an offense that is based upon Richardson's running.
I think if they can win two of their last five games to finish at 5-11, they should be happy. This team will honestly probably not be seriously competitive for at least a few more years, but the optimist in me says that they might at least be trending a bit upwards (a bit).
AFC South
Texans (10-1) - 11 games, 10 wins. Victories over Denver and Chicago, and a stomping of Baltimore. That should speak for itself, right? Well, probably. But not certainly. There are a whole lot of reasons to like this team, and only a few reasons to doubt them. They have stars on both sides of the ball. They won a playoff game last season with their third string quarterback, and thus far, their starting quarterback has been healthy. They have one of the best running backs in the league. They have one of the best (when healthy) wide receivers in the league. They have a possible Defensive MVP candidate on their defensive line.
The Texans have a whole lot of things going for them right now. I'm extremely confident that Houston can win the AFC South, and I believe that they can make serious noise in the postseason. The Packers destroyed them in Week 6 on a Sunday night, but I am willing to overlook that as an outlier because of the way that they have played in every game other than that one.
The final five games feature one at New England (which should be a great game to see), as well as two with the Colts. Aside from that, they get Tennessee and Minnesota. If I am on the Texans, I am obviously shooting for 5-0 over the final five games, but I'll say that they should go 4-1. At worst they go 2-3, but I highly doubt that. That means that Houston could possibly go 14-2 and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. We saw them play the Bangals last year at home in the playoffs, and the crowd played a huge role in helping Houston win that game. If they get every playoff game at home this year, it is Super Bowl or bust for this team. If not, I think that they are still equipped to make a run to a championship.
This is no doubt one of the best teams in the NFL right now. However, they have a roster full of unproven postseason performers so that is really my only concern here. If there is one team poised to make an unprecedented run (in terms of the history of the franchise) to the Super Bowl, it is this team. I will not be fully convinced until January, but the Texans are no doubt legitimate Super Bowl contenders right now.
Colts (7-4) - In my eyes, the Indianapolis Colts have been by far the most pleasant surprise in the NFL so far this season. After a terrible 2011 season, the Colts drafted Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in the draft and the re-building process was underway. However, it seems like someone forgot to tell the Colts that a re-building process was supposed to be measured in years and not weeks. After a bit of a rough start, the Colts now own the first Wild Card spot in the AFC, and have their postseason destiny in their own hands.
First, I have to give credit to the front office of the Colts. As tough as it must have been to let a legend like Peyton Manning go, I still firmly believe that the team made the right decision by doing so. Andrew Luck was not only projected to be a standout quarterback, but he has proven just as much through 11 games so far this year. There have obviously been rookie bumps and bruises along the way, but there have been more signature moments than bumps and bruises, and when Peyton Manning is making his Hall of Fame induction speech, the Colts will be glad that they still have Luck running their offense. As if that decision wasn't enough, rookies like Dwayne Allen, T.Y. Hilton, and Vick Ballard have played big roles in the team's success as well.
The signature win of the year was clearly in Week 5 over the Green Bay Packers when Luck led the team down the field and hit Reggie Wayne for the winning touchdown, but it seems like Chuck Pagano's fight against leukemia has propelled this team to its winning ways all season. In my eyes, Indianapolis has already far surpassed expectations in 2012. At this point, this is just one of those dream seasons that are few and far between. The Colts are in great position to make the playoffs, and as long as they aren't playing the Giants, then I'm cheering for the Colts.
Titans (4-7) - Tennessee has been up and down a bunch this year, but the down has been more prevalent than the up, and that is reflected in their 4-7 record. The Titans won a shootout against the Lions in overtime and beat the Steelers, but they were also demolished by the Patriots, Bears, and Texans. In the end, it simply comes down to the Titans just not really having enough talent to beat the better teams on their schedule.
There are a few pieces here on both offense and defense, but in the end, Tennessee just does not have enough to match up with any contending teams in the AFC. If they can win three more games from here on out, I think they should consider that a success. For now though, I'll go with 6-10 for the Titans.
Jaguars (2-9) - To be truthful, there really is just not enough talent here. Jacksonville has some good players, but throughout the majority of the roster, they just do not match up with the rest of their schedule, let alone the rest of the AFC. They have gone back and forth between Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at the quarterback position, and it's obvious that neither of them is the long term answer at the position. Maurice Jones-Drew led the NFL in rushing in 2011, but he has missed much of this season, and they have been unable to find a quality replacement for him. Their number one draft pick, wide receiver Justin Blackmon, was extremely quiet throughout most of the beginning of the season, but he has come on in the past few games and finally shown what most of us thought he was capable of doing.
Without a true number one quarterback though, the Jaguars have no shot at any kind of success in the near future. This year's incoming quarterback draft class is not very impressive (at least in my eyes) either, so by the time Jacksonville might have a legitimate shot to get a franchise QB, their franchise running back might be done. I don't see much success in the future of this team, and I think that if they are able to reach 4-12, then it should be considered a "success."
AFC West
Broncos (8-3) - Now here we have an incredibly interesting, and potentially lethal, team. The Broncos made the biggest offseason splash by signing future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, but due somewhat in part to a murderous early season schedule, they were not considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. However, now that Denver has made it through that tough schedule at 8-3, it is time to start looking at them as a serious threat to win it all.
First off, the AFC West has been a horrible disappointment in terms of depth in the division. The Chargers stink, and they are the best of the rest. So that means that Denver is on track to easily win the division, and they should be thinking about a first round bye at this point.
One of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game has obviously provided this team with a huge boost, and although their "skill" position players may not all be household names, Peyton Manning has done a great job of helping them reach their potentials. The Broncos did lose to the Patriots, Texans, and Falcons (three surefire playoff teams), but I think that thanks in part to their easier schedule, and also in part to their ability to continue to gel as a team, Denver has to be considered as a legitimate contender to win the AFC.
Every game from here on out could be a win, and I think they should consider anything less than 12-4 a disappointment. It is obviously not a given, but if this team fails to win at least one playoff game, then this season should be considered a disappointment. If they won the Super Bowl, let me say it right now, I would not be surprised.
Chargers (4-7) - Ok, I am officially done with San Diego. They are the Dallas Cowboys of the AFC (and that is not a compliment), but somehow always seem to be even worse than that. I am looking at my USA Today 2012 NFL preview magazine right now, and I wish I had the foresight that the writers of that magazine had. They predicted that the Chargers would be last in the AFC West. While it is highly unlikely that they will finish last, the Chargers have already proven that the only thing that is true about them is the fact that they will never meet expectations.
Despite a talented roster and a highly respected offensive-minded coach (sound familiar, Dallas fans?), this is just not a good team. There are stars and there are duds. There are injuries. There are inconsistencies. Whatever it takes to derail a team is what has happened year after year in San Diego.
Yesterday, the Chargers had the Baltimore Ravens in the palm of their hands. They had a 13-10 lead with the Ravens facing a 4th & 29, yet somehow, Baltimore turned that into a first down and eventually, an overtime victory. Now, credit is due where credit is deserved, and Ray Rice made a spectacular play, gave a spectacular effort, and got spectacular help (although Anquan Boldin may have...possibly...PROBABLY...gotten away with a block in the back), but the moral of the story is that the Chargers simply do not deserve to be considered a contender.
They have talented players at the positions you need to have talented players, but the way this team is constructed, this just isn't going to work. At this point, if I were (general manager) A.J. Smith, I would honestly consider trading Philip Rivers, because the way things have gone since he has been drafted have led me to believe that not only does San Diego need a new quarterback, but it needs an entire new regime to take charge of a franchise in flux.
Raiders (3-8) - The 2012 Oakland Raiders are pretty much exactly what most people probably expected. They simply are just not good enough to challenge for a spot in the playoffs. Whether it is because the offense cannot stay healthy or just cannot score enough points, or because the defense just is not very good, the Raiders are just not a good team.
Their signature win of the season was in Week 3 against the Steelers, but their schedule has been marked by far more blowout losses than signature wins. Over the past four games, the Raiders have given up 42, 55, 38, and 34 points, and not surprisingly, all four of those games have been losses.
Carson Palmer has put up nice numbers, but that is partly due to the fact that the Raiders constantly find themselves involved in shootout games in which defense is optional by either team. Darren McFadden is good when he is healthy, but never seems to be fully healthy, and the defense is just not very good. The final five games are not too tough, but since we are talking about a below-average team like the Raiders here, I would have to say that 5-11 is the best that they can hope for.
Chiefs (1-10) - This is a team that I must say I expected far too much of (although if you look at the preseason predictions of most, I am not the only one guilty of that). I thought that the quarterback position in Kansas City was only a small deterrent to a team that seemed to have a good amount of talent throughout the roster, but boy, was I wrong there.
The quarterback position has been a complete disaster for the Chiefs. Kansas City is competing with the Jets and the Cardinals right now for the worst quarterback situation in the entire NFL. Matt Cassel has proven that his good year with the Patriots was obviously a product of New England's system, and not a product of his own talent. Due to his poor play, Chiefs fans have clamored for Brady Quinn, and if a fan base is clamoring for Brady Quinn to start, then you know that the quarterback situation must be dire.
The offensive struggles have marred the Chiefs, as their defense has honestly not been egregiously bad in recent weeks, but they have only mustered one touchdown in the past three games. I don't care how well you play defense, if you cannot score more than seven points on offense, you are not going to win NFL games. At this point, the Chiefs need to be hoping that they get a top five draft pick and that whoever they pick ends up being a superstar.
That's all for my AFC 3/4 season preview. Just to re-iterate my feelings, I have to say that the current playoff seedings should be close to how we actually finish in January. If Houston does not get a first-round bye, then I will be shocked, and it should be between Baltimore and New England (although I give the edge right now to the Patriots), for the #2 seed. Denver and the loser of that battle for #2 seem to be in the clear, and despite the problems that the Steelers face, I still think that they are a playoff team.
The Colts are in good shape as far as won-loss record goes, but they are still less proven than Pittsburgh. If anyone has a chance to crash this playoff party, it is the Cincinnati Bengals, but I still think that is a long shot.
As of right now, I have to say that I think the Texans, Patriots, and Broncos are legitimate Super Bowl contenders coming out of the AFC, but as I said before, we still have a whole lot to learn over the next five weeks.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Your 2013 Miami Marlins...far from your 2012 Miami Marlins
The 2012 Major League Baseball offseason had been somewhat quiet up until yesterday, when reports surfaced that the Miami Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays were on the verge of a blockbuster trade involving a whole bunch of big names and a whole bunch of money. The problem with this trade? The big names and the big money were all going from Miami to Toronto, and what the Marlins are set to receive in return is equal to not far above zero. Miami is set to send Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to Toronto for Yunel Escobar, Henderson Alvarez, Jeff Mathis, and multiple minor league prospects.
Going into the 2012 season, the Marlins were one of the most talked about teams in all of baseball. They were moving into a new, publicly-funded ballpark in downtown Miami, they had new jerseys, a new manager, and a whole lot of new players. This wasn't the first time that we had seen an offseason like this from the Marlins. Just like the 2012 season, prior to the 1997 and 2003 seasons, the Marlins went on spending sprees. The difference between 2012 and those two years? 1997 and 2003 ended with the Marlins winning the World Series. 2012 ended with the Marlins in last place.
While it was obviously not a good year for the Marlins, finishing in last place is not the end of the world. Their roster was still loaded with a lot of young players who were under contract for multiple years. Teams like the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and Phillies all had a lot of money invested into teams that did not live up to expectations in 2012 (for various reasons). However, I find it hard to believe that these teams will not get better over the next few seasons (although Boston will be putting that theory to the test after some of the moves they made at the end of 2012).
However, there is a distinct difference between the Red Sox and the Marlins. The Red Sox have fans that are willing to put themselves through incredible torture in order to support their team. Despite decades of losing, Red Sox fans stood by their team, and were finally rewarded for their faith in 2004 and 2007 when Boston won the World Series. The undying love for the Red Sox by their fans despite its team's failures is unmatched in most cases. The only teams that can claim to have fan bases that have proven themselves to be more tortuously supportive than in Boston are probably fans of the Chicago Cubs, Toronto Maple Leafs, and maybe the New York Jets or Cleveland Browns. Marlins fans should not even be mentioned in a conversation discussing how ardently they support their team in comparison to the fans of those franchises. In fact, just mentioning the Marlins right now in an essay including the fans of those franchises makes me feel like I am doing a disservice to Cubs, Maple Leafs, Jets, and Browns fans everywhere.
What I am basically trying to say is that the Marlins fan base is pretty much nothing in comparison to most professional teams across the country. Not only do they not show up when the team is losing, they don't even show up when the team is winning! How the team got a deal to build a stadium with hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars, I will never know. They did it with the expectation that they would be able to field a competitive team in 2012, and I must say that their moves prior to the year proved that they were willing to spend the money to attempt to field such a team. However, once the play on the field did not meet expectations, the Marlins ownership gave up far too quickly on their investment.
Instead of choosing to try to ride out the struggles, Miami's owner Jeffrey Loria demonstrated that he is only in charge of the team for his own financial gain, and that he has no emotional investment whatsoever in the product he puts on the field. As I take a look at the Marlins' roster as it is currently constructed, it is stunning to see how much it has changed in just under a year's time.
Since the beginning of the 2012 season, the Marlins have traded their entire starting infield (including the catcher), three of their top four starting pitchers, their three best pitchers in the bullpen, and their starting center fielder who was their leadoff hitter. What have they gotten in return? A backup catcher in Jeff Mathis, a very solid shortstop in Yunel Escobar (the one positive acquisition they made here), a very unproven Major League starting pitcher in Henderson Alvarez, and a bunch of guys who have proven nothing at the Major League level.
When you think about this, it's honestly nearly inconceivable. To put this is terms that are easier to relate to (since, of course, 99% of the world is composed of Yankees fans), it is like the Yankees traded Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin, C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, and Rafael Soriano for Erick Aybar and Chris Iannetta. I'm not sure what Yankee fans would do if something close to this ever happened to their team, but it doesn't matter because such a thing will never happen. However, if it were to happen in the Bronx, I would be willing to bet that attendance in Yankee Stadium would see a considerable decrease. I am also willing to bet that Marlins Park in Miami will also see a significant dip in attendance. The difference between Yankee Stadium and Marlins Park? Yankee Stadium is always full and Marlins Park is always about 75% empty.
That means that in 2013, the Marlins might as well play their home games in Gainesville or Tallahassee at college ballparks. That way, the stadiums might have a better chance to actually fill up. As it stands right now though, I doubt that Marlins Park will sell out even one game all season in 2013, and with the way that Jeffrey Loria and the rest of the Marlins' organization has handled itself this offseason, I will not blame Marlins fans one bit for not showing up to support a team that clearly is run by a group that does not support the on-field product.
I drifted away from why this trade and the moves that the Marlins have made over the past few months are a disgrace to the Marlins organization, and my original intent was to kill Jeffrey Loria for running this team in such a dishonorable manner. Stay tuned for a more financially-based look at why this trade is not only an insult to Marlins fans, but an insult to Major League Baseball in general...
Daily Giants Update: As I said before, the bye week could not come at a better time for the Giants. Thankfully, Tim Tebow and the Jets are (shockingly!) stealing all of the headlines in New York newspapers, so we will be able to shed the spotlight for the next week, and hopefully come back stronger than ever against Green Bay in 11 days. The Eagles are in shambles and are about one loss away from becoming an afterthought, but the Cowboys still are within striking distance and, on paper at least, have a much easier schedule than the Giants from here on out. We still are well in control of our own destiny at 6-4 with six games remaining, but there will be no more excuses for poor play after a week off.
Daily Nets Update: A win last night at home against the Cavaliers brought the record to 4-2 on the season, but the Nets once again turned a big lead into a game that was closer than it should have been. Joe Johnson had a bad night, but the bench came through with some big production that eventually led to a win over a less-talented Cleveland team. Next up is a nationally televised home game against the Celtics tomorrow night. Be on the look out for Rajon Rondo passing up numerous open shots, Paul Pierce complaining to the referees, and Kevin Garnett doing push ups on his knuckles!
Daily Diamondbacks Update: As expected, Wade Miley did not win National League Rookie of the Year, finishing second to Bryce Harper. While it would have been great to see Miley win the award, the Diamondbacks organization and its fans know what a great year he had, and I'm really looking forward to seeing what our potentially outstanding rotation could look like in 2013. Now, as long as Kevin Towers doesn't trade Justin Upton.......
Going into the 2012 season, the Marlins were one of the most talked about teams in all of baseball. They were moving into a new, publicly-funded ballpark in downtown Miami, they had new jerseys, a new manager, and a whole lot of new players. This wasn't the first time that we had seen an offseason like this from the Marlins. Just like the 2012 season, prior to the 1997 and 2003 seasons, the Marlins went on spending sprees. The difference between 2012 and those two years? 1997 and 2003 ended with the Marlins winning the World Series. 2012 ended with the Marlins in last place.
While it was obviously not a good year for the Marlins, finishing in last place is not the end of the world. Their roster was still loaded with a lot of young players who were under contract for multiple years. Teams like the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and Phillies all had a lot of money invested into teams that did not live up to expectations in 2012 (for various reasons). However, I find it hard to believe that these teams will not get better over the next few seasons (although Boston will be putting that theory to the test after some of the moves they made at the end of 2012).
However, there is a distinct difference between the Red Sox and the Marlins. The Red Sox have fans that are willing to put themselves through incredible torture in order to support their team. Despite decades of losing, Red Sox fans stood by their team, and were finally rewarded for their faith in 2004 and 2007 when Boston won the World Series. The undying love for the Red Sox by their fans despite its team's failures is unmatched in most cases. The only teams that can claim to have fan bases that have proven themselves to be more tortuously supportive than in Boston are probably fans of the Chicago Cubs, Toronto Maple Leafs, and maybe the New York Jets or Cleveland Browns. Marlins fans should not even be mentioned in a conversation discussing how ardently they support their team in comparison to the fans of those franchises. In fact, just mentioning the Marlins right now in an essay including the fans of those franchises makes me feel like I am doing a disservice to Cubs, Maple Leafs, Jets, and Browns fans everywhere.
What I am basically trying to say is that the Marlins fan base is pretty much nothing in comparison to most professional teams across the country. Not only do they not show up when the team is losing, they don't even show up when the team is winning! How the team got a deal to build a stadium with hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars, I will never know. They did it with the expectation that they would be able to field a competitive team in 2012, and I must say that their moves prior to the year proved that they were willing to spend the money to attempt to field such a team. However, once the play on the field did not meet expectations, the Marlins ownership gave up far too quickly on their investment.
Instead of choosing to try to ride out the struggles, Miami's owner Jeffrey Loria demonstrated that he is only in charge of the team for his own financial gain, and that he has no emotional investment whatsoever in the product he puts on the field. As I take a look at the Marlins' roster as it is currently constructed, it is stunning to see how much it has changed in just under a year's time.
Since the beginning of the 2012 season, the Marlins have traded their entire starting infield (including the catcher), three of their top four starting pitchers, their three best pitchers in the bullpen, and their starting center fielder who was their leadoff hitter. What have they gotten in return? A backup catcher in Jeff Mathis, a very solid shortstop in Yunel Escobar (the one positive acquisition they made here), a very unproven Major League starting pitcher in Henderson Alvarez, and a bunch of guys who have proven nothing at the Major League level.
When you think about this, it's honestly nearly inconceivable. To put this is terms that are easier to relate to (since, of course, 99% of the world is composed of Yankees fans), it is like the Yankees traded Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin, C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, and Rafael Soriano for Erick Aybar and Chris Iannetta. I'm not sure what Yankee fans would do if something close to this ever happened to their team, but it doesn't matter because such a thing will never happen. However, if it were to happen in the Bronx, I would be willing to bet that attendance in Yankee Stadium would see a considerable decrease. I am also willing to bet that Marlins Park in Miami will also see a significant dip in attendance. The difference between Yankee Stadium and Marlins Park? Yankee Stadium is always full and Marlins Park is always about 75% empty.
That means that in 2013, the Marlins might as well play their home games in Gainesville or Tallahassee at college ballparks. That way, the stadiums might have a better chance to actually fill up. As it stands right now though, I doubt that Marlins Park will sell out even one game all season in 2013, and with the way that Jeffrey Loria and the rest of the Marlins' organization has handled itself this offseason, I will not blame Marlins fans one bit for not showing up to support a team that clearly is run by a group that does not support the on-field product.
I drifted away from why this trade and the moves that the Marlins have made over the past few months are a disgrace to the Marlins organization, and my original intent was to kill Jeffrey Loria for running this team in such a dishonorable manner. Stay tuned for a more financially-based look at why this trade is not only an insult to Marlins fans, but an insult to Major League Baseball in general...
Daily Giants Update: As I said before, the bye week could not come at a better time for the Giants. Thankfully, Tim Tebow and the Jets are (shockingly!) stealing all of the headlines in New York newspapers, so we will be able to shed the spotlight for the next week, and hopefully come back stronger than ever against Green Bay in 11 days. The Eagles are in shambles and are about one loss away from becoming an afterthought, but the Cowboys still are within striking distance and, on paper at least, have a much easier schedule than the Giants from here on out. We still are well in control of our own destiny at 6-4 with six games remaining, but there will be no more excuses for poor play after a week off.
Daily Nets Update: A win last night at home against the Cavaliers brought the record to 4-2 on the season, but the Nets once again turned a big lead into a game that was closer than it should have been. Joe Johnson had a bad night, but the bench came through with some big production that eventually led to a win over a less-talented Cleveland team. Next up is a nationally televised home game against the Celtics tomorrow night. Be on the look out for Rajon Rondo passing up numerous open shots, Paul Pierce complaining to the referees, and Kevin Garnett doing push ups on his knuckles!
Daily Diamondbacks Update: As expected, Wade Miley did not win National League Rookie of the Year, finishing second to Bryce Harper. While it would have been great to see Miley win the award, the Diamondbacks organization and its fans know what a great year he had, and I'm really looking forward to seeing what our potentially outstanding rotation could look like in 2013. Now, as long as Kevin Towers doesn't trade Justin Upton.......
Monday, November 12, 2012
If he can't do it now, he won't ever do it
Following a slow start to the 2012-2013 season, the Los Angeles Lakers fired head coach Mike Brown a few days ago and yesterday announced that they would be hiring Mike D'Antoni as their new head coach. The news of this hire came as a huge surprise to many people with any knowledge of the NBA, and that would include myself.
After signing an aging Steve Nash and trading for Dwight Howard, it was obvious before the season even began that the Lakers were going all-in this year. Kobe Bryant is 34 years old, and that may not seem too old, but he is actually entering his 17th season in the NBA because he came into the league straight out of high school. Steve Nash is nearing 40 years of age. Metta World Peace, a.k.a. Ron Artest, seems like he is aging very quickly. Pau Gasol is still a premier frontcourt player, but trade rumors have surrounded him for a while now. Dwight Howard is only under contract for the rest of this season, and with the way he has handled his contract situation, there is no telling where he might end up playing next season.
On paper, that is one of the best starting lineups in the NBA. It features multiple MVP's, multiple defensive players of the year, and multiple former NBA champions. However, as we all know, games are not won on paper, and despite the history of those five players, there are some kind of flaws associated with each of them. It's because of those flaws (whether they are on-court flaws or off-court flaws) that it seems like the Lakers have only one chance to win another NBA title, and that chance is this season. For all we know, one year from now, Kobe Bryant may be another year older with even more mileage on a body that has produced a certain Hall of Famer, but also taken a whole lot of punishment during its NBA career. Steve Nash may have succumbed to injuries that will never allow him to come close to his former NBA caliber play (he has already missed multiple games this year and the season isn't even 10 games old). Ron Artest may be relegated to bench duties because of an all-around game that is steadily declining. And as far as Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard go...well, they may not even be on the Lakers roster in 2013.
All of this plays a role in why I think the hiring of Mike D'Antoni was a terrible move by the Lakers organization. When an NBA fan hears the name Mike D'Antoni, the first thing they think of is probably a whole lot of offense. Throughout his head coaching career, his teams have been very proficient offensively. Whether it was the Phoenix Suns or the New York Knicks, D'Antoni's teams have been able to score plenty of points thanks to his up-tempo style of play. He was able to help Nash become a two-time league MVP. He turned Amare Stoudemire into a superstar, and he then re-invigorated a New York Knicks franchise that had been down in the dumps for a while by bringing Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony to Madison Square Garden. Despite all of these positives, it seems like D'Antoni actually mirrors the current Lakers roster. There is a history of success, but there are also a lot of red flags.
Basically, what I am getting at, is that despite his success, Mike D'Antoni is probably most well-known (at least in my eyes) as a coach that feels like defense is not something that matters in the NBA. D'Antoni's regular season success in Phoenix translated into postseason success, but it never translated into postseason and historical relevance. When Steve Nash was in his prime and guys like Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, and Shawn Marion were providing Nash with an elite supporting cast, D'Antoni was still unable to get the Suns past the Western Conference Finals. In fact, when D'Antoni and his did Suns made it that far, they actually lost to the Lakers. Mike Brown, the villain in this L.A. drama actually did lead a team to the NBA Finals once (granted, it was in a much weaker Eastern Conference, but his team still got there). D'Antoni has never been to the Finals.
Before this season began, it was painfully obvious that the Lakers were going for the knockout punch in 2012. It was NBA Finals or bust. However, the hiring of Mike D'Antoni as head coach and the passing over of Phil Jackson makes no sense in my mind. The most underrated characteristic of Jackson's championship teams was their defense. Michael Jordan is the best player in the history of the sport of basketball in the eyes of most people, and he was a great defensive player. Kobe Bryant can play a whole lot of defense as well, and he was the star of more than one of Jackson's 11 championship teams. Scottie Pippen is one of the most underrated players (possibly THE most underrated player in NBA history), and he played great defense. Ron Artest won multiple defensive MVP awards with Phil Jackson as his coach.
Mike D'Antoni has never coached a defensive player of the year. He has never coached anyone that has come close to winning the defensive player of the year. As much as David Stern, Roger Goodell, Bud Selig, and Gary Bettman would hate to admit, it is still defense (and in the case of baseball, pitching as well) that wins championships. Phil Jackson's 11 rings and Mike D'Antoni's zero rings are a testament to that. D'Antoni will guarantee regular season success for the Lakers. He will probably even guarantee some postseason success. However, 20 years from now, the 2012-2013 Los Angeles Lakers will be irrelevant. D'Antoni will stress a whole lot of offense and no defense, and because of that, there will be no championship parades in Laker land in 2013. If I'm wrong, then you have the proof right here that I don't know what I'm talking about. If I'm right though, Phil Jackson and myself can point to November 12, 2012 as a day that we said "I told you so."
Daily Giants Update: There has never been a team that has needed a bye week more than the 2012 New York Giants. After multiple poor performances, we still head into the bye week at 6-4, and atop the NFC East. The Eagles seem to be in the midst of a train wreck right now, and the Cowboys are still relevant (although we all know what happens when the Cowboys are under pressure to win games). Usually, I hate bye weeks because I miss watching the Giants, but I have never looked forward to a bye week more than I am looking forward to next Sunday. Get healthy, clear our heads, and get back to winning football 13 days from now against the Packers.
Daily Nets Update: 3-2 so far to start the year, with a game tomorrow night against the Cleveland Cavaliers. With 77 games left to play, there is still an eternity remaining, but two games above .500 obviously sounds a whole lot better than 3-3.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Mike Trout unanimously won the American League Rookie of the Year award in what was possibly the most obvious award decision in the history of baseball. The National League Rookie of the Year award is up next, and although I feel like Wade Miley should win, it seems to me like Bryce Harper is going to win. No one outside of Arizona cares about the Diamondbacks, and no casual fan has probably even heard of Wade Miley. In case you were wondering, he won 16 games in 2012. If he wins the award, I will be shocked. I hope he does, but I'm not getting my hopes too high.
After signing an aging Steve Nash and trading for Dwight Howard, it was obvious before the season even began that the Lakers were going all-in this year. Kobe Bryant is 34 years old, and that may not seem too old, but he is actually entering his 17th season in the NBA because he came into the league straight out of high school. Steve Nash is nearing 40 years of age. Metta World Peace, a.k.a. Ron Artest, seems like he is aging very quickly. Pau Gasol is still a premier frontcourt player, but trade rumors have surrounded him for a while now. Dwight Howard is only under contract for the rest of this season, and with the way he has handled his contract situation, there is no telling where he might end up playing next season.
On paper, that is one of the best starting lineups in the NBA. It features multiple MVP's, multiple defensive players of the year, and multiple former NBA champions. However, as we all know, games are not won on paper, and despite the history of those five players, there are some kind of flaws associated with each of them. It's because of those flaws (whether they are on-court flaws or off-court flaws) that it seems like the Lakers have only one chance to win another NBA title, and that chance is this season. For all we know, one year from now, Kobe Bryant may be another year older with even more mileage on a body that has produced a certain Hall of Famer, but also taken a whole lot of punishment during its NBA career. Steve Nash may have succumbed to injuries that will never allow him to come close to his former NBA caliber play (he has already missed multiple games this year and the season isn't even 10 games old). Ron Artest may be relegated to bench duties because of an all-around game that is steadily declining. And as far as Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard go...well, they may not even be on the Lakers roster in 2013.
All of this plays a role in why I think the hiring of Mike D'Antoni was a terrible move by the Lakers organization. When an NBA fan hears the name Mike D'Antoni, the first thing they think of is probably a whole lot of offense. Throughout his head coaching career, his teams have been very proficient offensively. Whether it was the Phoenix Suns or the New York Knicks, D'Antoni's teams have been able to score plenty of points thanks to his up-tempo style of play. He was able to help Nash become a two-time league MVP. He turned Amare Stoudemire into a superstar, and he then re-invigorated a New York Knicks franchise that had been down in the dumps for a while by bringing Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony to Madison Square Garden. Despite all of these positives, it seems like D'Antoni actually mirrors the current Lakers roster. There is a history of success, but there are also a lot of red flags.
Basically, what I am getting at, is that despite his success, Mike D'Antoni is probably most well-known (at least in my eyes) as a coach that feels like defense is not something that matters in the NBA. D'Antoni's regular season success in Phoenix translated into postseason success, but it never translated into postseason and historical relevance. When Steve Nash was in his prime and guys like Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, and Shawn Marion were providing Nash with an elite supporting cast, D'Antoni was still unable to get the Suns past the Western Conference Finals. In fact, when D'Antoni and his did Suns made it that far, they actually lost to the Lakers. Mike Brown, the villain in this L.A. drama actually did lead a team to the NBA Finals once (granted, it was in a much weaker Eastern Conference, but his team still got there). D'Antoni has never been to the Finals.
Before this season began, it was painfully obvious that the Lakers were going for the knockout punch in 2012. It was NBA Finals or bust. However, the hiring of Mike D'Antoni as head coach and the passing over of Phil Jackson makes no sense in my mind. The most underrated characteristic of Jackson's championship teams was their defense. Michael Jordan is the best player in the history of the sport of basketball in the eyes of most people, and he was a great defensive player. Kobe Bryant can play a whole lot of defense as well, and he was the star of more than one of Jackson's 11 championship teams. Scottie Pippen is one of the most underrated players (possibly THE most underrated player in NBA history), and he played great defense. Ron Artest won multiple defensive MVP awards with Phil Jackson as his coach.
Mike D'Antoni has never coached a defensive player of the year. He has never coached anyone that has come close to winning the defensive player of the year. As much as David Stern, Roger Goodell, Bud Selig, and Gary Bettman would hate to admit, it is still defense (and in the case of baseball, pitching as well) that wins championships. Phil Jackson's 11 rings and Mike D'Antoni's zero rings are a testament to that. D'Antoni will guarantee regular season success for the Lakers. He will probably even guarantee some postseason success. However, 20 years from now, the 2012-2013 Los Angeles Lakers will be irrelevant. D'Antoni will stress a whole lot of offense and no defense, and because of that, there will be no championship parades in Laker land in 2013. If I'm wrong, then you have the proof right here that I don't know what I'm talking about. If I'm right though, Phil Jackson and myself can point to November 12, 2012 as a day that we said "I told you so."
Daily Giants Update: There has never been a team that has needed a bye week more than the 2012 New York Giants. After multiple poor performances, we still head into the bye week at 6-4, and atop the NFC East. The Eagles seem to be in the midst of a train wreck right now, and the Cowboys are still relevant (although we all know what happens when the Cowboys are under pressure to win games). Usually, I hate bye weeks because I miss watching the Giants, but I have never looked forward to a bye week more than I am looking forward to next Sunday. Get healthy, clear our heads, and get back to winning football 13 days from now against the Packers.
Daily Nets Update: 3-2 so far to start the year, with a game tomorrow night against the Cleveland Cavaliers. With 77 games left to play, there is still an eternity remaining, but two games above .500 obviously sounds a whole lot better than 3-3.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Mike Trout unanimously won the American League Rookie of the Year award in what was possibly the most obvious award decision in the history of baseball. The National League Rookie of the Year award is up next, and although I feel like Wade Miley should win, it seems to me like Bryce Harper is going to win. No one outside of Arizona cares about the Diamondbacks, and no casual fan has probably even heard of Wade Miley. In case you were wondering, he won 16 games in 2012. If he wins the award, I will be shocked. I hope he does, but I'm not getting my hopes too high.
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