As I move on from the eight last place teams in their respective divisions to the eight third place teams, it's time to look at the Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks. First off will be the Raiders.
Oakland Raiders
The biggest story in Oakland last season came off the field, as their owner Al Davis passed away at the age of 82 in October. This offseason was the first time since 1963 that the Davis had no hand in the moves made by the team. However, the Raiders still felt some of the lingering effects of Davis' tenure, as they did not have a draft pick until the third round. With a new regime in the front office and a new head coach in Dennis Allen, this season will be one of transition for Oakland, and it will be interesting to see where the organization goes from here.
Non-divisional games: Miami, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Carolina
When looking at the statistics from last season, we see an obvious trend: good offense and terrible defense. The Raiders ranked in the top ten in the NFL in both rushing and total offense, and they were 11th in passing offense. A rank of 16th in scoring shows that the team had some trouble converting yards into points, but overall this was an above average offensive team.
However, the same cannot be said for the defense. Oakland ranked 29th in the league in scoring defense and total yards allowed, and they ranked 27th in both passing defense and rushing defense. While we saw an odd trend last season of teams with very bad defensive statistics actually being some of the top teams in the league, they all had offenses that were far superior to Oakland's. With an offense that is largely similar to the 2011 version, the defense will need to improve drastically in order for this team to contend.
The best player on this offense is running back Darren McFadden, and although there is no doubting his ability on the field, he has been injury-prone for his entire career. He played in only seven games last year, and during his four year career he has never played a full 16 games. For this offense to flourish, McFadden will need to stay healthy. When healthy, he is a very good running back, but he has yet to prove that he can be healthy for an entire season.
The arrival of Carson Palmer last season after a tumultous end to his career in Cincinnati was a move that brought about a lot of uncertainty. Would Palmer be able to reach the level of play he had for much of his career in Cincinnati, or would he play poorly? Would he be able to fit in with the Oakland offense after no practice time whatsoever? The answer to those questions was closer to no than yes, although with a full offseason to work with the team, I think that this will be the first true glimpse we will get of how Palmer fits in with this team. Palmer threw 13 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions last season, and if he has a ratio like that again, there is no way he will be able to succeed. However, if McFadden can finally stay healthy, Palmer has an intriguing bunch of wide receivers to throw to and he could potentially have a pretty good year.
That receiving corps contains a ton of players with Al Davis' favorite attribute: speed. After a tough start to his career, Darrius Heyward-Bey turned in a very good year in 2011, and with a full year to form a rapport with Palmer, he could be in for an even better season in 2012. Aside from Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford is lightning fast and has the ability to turn any play into a touchdown. Another receiving option that is considered by many to be in for a breakout season is Denarius Moore. Moore is still young and improving, and he could potentially become a dangerous threat on the outside that will give the Raiders a few dangerous threats on the offensive side of the ball. The Raiders do, however, lack a serious threat at tight end, and in a league in which the tight end position is becoming more and more important, this could hurt the Raiders.
The offensive line is a middle-of-the-pack group. There is some young talent, but there are also a few guys like Cooper Carlisle and Khalif Barnes that are getting up there in age. The Raiders drafted Tony Bergstrom out of Utah with their first pick in the draft (although that pick was not until the third round) with the hope that he could step in for Carlisle, who is the oldest of the group up front. McFadden has the ability to thrive despite an only mediocre line, but Palmer is not exactly the definition of a mobile quarterback, so the offensive line will need to play well in order for this offense to succeed.
As the numbers showed, the defense was abysmal last season. Not only could they not stop the run or the pass, they also gave up a staggering 58 first downs on penalties alone, which is absolutely unacceptable and was by far the worst in the NFL. The defensive line is above-average, as Tommy Kelly is solid in the middle, as well as Richard Seymour, although Seymour is on the downside of his career. The linebacking corps is average at best, with guys like Rolando McClain and Aaron Curry who have not lived up to the lofty expectations placed upon them when they were drafted.
In the secondary, the team added Shawntae Spencer and Ronald Bartell in free agency to be the starting cornerbacks, and they team with a somewhat formidable safety duo of Tyvon Branch and Michael Huff. If the defense falls victim to injuries though, the Raiders will struggle again, as they do not have much in terms of depth on that side of the ball.
The surest thing on the Raiders, which may sound a bit odd, is their kicking game. Sebastian Janikowski and Shane Lechler possess two of the strongest legs in the game at their respective kicker and punter positions, and there have been times in which the duo has actually played the biggest part of Raider victories. However, when the kicker and the punter are the two most consistent players on your roster, it does not exactly bode well over the course of a 16 game season.
The schedule is probably middle-of-the-pack in terms of difficulty on paper, but Oakland has two three game stretches of games against playoff teams from 2011 (Pittsburgh, Denver and Atlanta in Weeks 2-4 and then Baltimore, New Orleans, and Cincinnati in Weeks 10-12). In a division with teams that have improved during the offseason and those two stretches, it may be tough for the Raiders to make it through all 16 games without a lot of bumps and bruises.
Best-case scenario: McFadden stays healthy for the entire year and ranks near the top of the league in major rushing categories, Palmer's full offseason allows him to match the form of his prime years in Cincinnati, the receiving corps grows into a deep and talented group, the defense steps up in a big way, the team is finally able to avoid being the most penalized in the league, and the Raiders challenge for the division crown, but still probably fall short of the postseason.
Worst-case scenario: McFadden gets hurt again and serious questions arise as to whether he can ever stay healthy for an entire season, Palmer proves that his best years are in the past, the defense is bad again, the Raiders are once again the most penalized team in the league, and they finish last in the AFC West.
Realistic prediction: Realistically, I think the Raiders are closer to that worst-case scenario as opposed to the best-case scenario. The Broncos added one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the league to a team that made the playoffs, the Chargers are still better than Oakland, and Kansas City has the potential to improve this season. As far as the record goes, I am going to go with 5-11 and a last place finish in the AFC West.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have been up and down over the past six seasons. They hit their peak with a Super Bowl trip in Super Bowl XL, yet also finished 4-12 in 2008. Since that 4-12 season, Seattle has been on somewhat of a mini-upswing, although the best they have done is 7-9 (in both 2010 and 2011). Like the past few seasons, they showed some positive signs in 2011, but also a bit more negative signs.
Non-divisional opponents: Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina, New England, Detroit, Minnesota, NY Jets, Miami, Chicago, Buffalo
Looking at the numbers from last year, we see a trend that closely resembles the polar opposite of the Oakland Raiders. Bad offense and good defense. The Seahawks ranked no better than 21st in any major offensive category, but also ranked in the top ten in both points and yards per game allowed. With the only real significant change being at the quarterback position, it is possible that these trends will continue in 2012.
As I just said, the biggest and most important question mark for Seattle is at the quarterback position. Seattle brought in two intriguing but unproven quarterbacks in free agent Matt Flynn and third round draft pick Russell Wilson. Flynn cashed in on a big free agent deal, but I am not convinced that he deserved the money that he got. Wilson had a successful college career at both NC State and Wisconsin, but he is small and it remains to be seen whether or not his skill set can turn into success in the NFL. Add Tarvaris Jackson to that mix, and the Seahawks quarterback position is filled of unknowns and mediocrities.
The best group of players on Seattle's offense is probably in the backfield. Marshawn Lynch had a great season in 2011, and with Leon Washington providing explosiveness as the second option, as well as Michael Robinson at the fullback position, the Seahawks are expecting a lot of success running the ball.
Much like the quarterback position, the wide receiving group is not exactly overwhelming. Sidney Rice is solid, but nothing more. The other options are Mike Williams, Doug Baldwin, and Ben Obomanu, and they are average but nothing more. As far as the offensive line goes, left tackle Russell Okung is the star here, and he seems like he has already justified the first round pick that the Seahawks spent on him. The rest of the line is solid enough to get the job done.
The biggest question that the Seahawks will need to answer is at the quarterback position though. At this point it seems as though Flynn, Jackson, and Wilson all have the potential to be the starter, although I think Flynn will end up winning the job simply based upon the money that the team spent to sign him in the offseason. If the quarterback question is not answered, opposing defenses will key on the running backs of Seattle and the Seahawks may have a tough time scoring points.
Defensively, the Seahawks made one of the most criticized moves in the first round of the draft, selecting Bruce Irvin in the first round. Considered by many to be the best pass rusher in the draft, scouts still criticized this pick because of Irvin's small size and inability to play well in running situations. If Irvin can develop into more than just a pass rusher, the Seahawks will look very good. If he can't then the Seahawks will look pretty bad.
The linebacking corps of the Seahawks is pretty good, with guys like K.J. Wright and Barrett Ruud. The biggest strength of the defense though is in the secondary. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor form what is probably the best safety tandem in the NFL. Both are young, talented, and have All-Pro ability. There has been talk of Chancellor possibly moving to linebacker, but at this point, he will remain at strong safety and team with Thomas to form a duo that will be able to defend both the run and the pass.
In terms of special teams, the Seahawks are pretty solid with Steven Hauschka and Jon Ryan at kicker and punter, as well as the explosive Leon Washington returning kicks.
Seattle's schedule is somewhat tough on paper, but they are in a division that is below-average from top to bottom. They only play five games against teams that made the playoffs last season, but they also get a few teams that missed the playoffs that are by no means easy games.
Best-case scenario: Either Flynn or Wilson is able to become the starting quarterback of the future, the receiving corps continues to improve, Lynch is able to repeat what he did last year, the young players on defense continue to improve, and the Seahawks are at least close to a playoff berth.
Worst-case scenario: None of the quarterbacks steps up and the money that Seattle spent on an unproven Flynn proves to be a waste, the receivers are not able to make plays as teams load the box and contain Lynch, Irvin proves the critics to be correct and gets his career off to a bad start, and the Seahawks cannot score enough to win a lot of games.
Realistic prediction: The Seahawks have some tough games, but they also have some very winnable games on their schedule. If Seattle can go 4-2 in their divisional games (which I think is definitely possible), I am going to say that they finish second in the division with a record of 8-8.
Next on the list will be the teams that finished third in the AFC and NFC South divisions, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers.
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