After looking at the Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers yesterday, day three brings us to the teams that finished last in the AFC and NFC North divisions last season, and that means its a look at the Browns and the Vikings. Today, we will start in Cleveland, Ohio.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns have gone a combined 18-46 over the past four seasons, and have only made the playoffs once since 1994 (although remember, they were out of the league for a short period during that time). In that playoff appearance, they lost in the wild card round, and that means that it has been almost 20 years since they have won a playoff game. The Browns have been consistently below-average over the past four seasons, winning four games in 2008 and 2011, and winning five games in 2009 and 2010. Much of this is due to a division that is always very competitive, but the Browns have simply not been good enough to compete within any division recently, and I still see it as a long road back to contention this year, although they may have added a few pieces that could make the future a little bit brighter.
Non-divisional games: Philadelphia, Buffalo, NY Giants, Indianapolis, San Diego, Dallas, Oakland, Kansas City, Washington, Denver
Looking at the numbers from the 2011 season, the Browns are mostly seeing a messy picture, although it isn't a complete mess. The offense was very bad, as the team ranked no higher than 24th in any major offensive category. Defensively though, the Browns were 5th best in the NFL in terms of average points allowed, 10th in total yards allowed, and 2nd in passing yards allowed. The problem was the run defense, as the Browns ranked 30th in the NFL, allowing 147 yards rushing per game. Compared to Baltimore's 79 rushing first downs allowed, Pittsburgh's 82, and Cincinnati's 94, the Browns allowed 124 first downs on rushing attempts. Now the Browns switched from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 last year, but you cannot use that as an excuse to explain why Cleveland could not stop the run last season. The addition of Juqua Parker and Frostee Rucker in the offseason were nice, but neither of those guys is known for his ability to stop the run, so I'm not sure that the Browns did enough to address this glaring problem. If the Browns want to improve their defense and be able to stop other teams from running wild on them, the defensive front will need to improve.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Browns made a big splash in the draft, taking quarterback Brandon Weeden, and running back Trent Richardson. Richardson was the undisputed top running back in the draft, and Weeden was an intriguing prospect due to his age, his talent, and the system in which he played in college at Oklahoma State.
Richardson has the potential to be a very good NFL running back, and his addition will immediately help the running attack of the Browns. As the numbers two and three, Montario Hardesty and Brandon Jackson can be effective enough to give the Browns what could potentially be an above-average running game.
The most glaring problem with Cleveland's offense is the passing attack. Coming out of Oklahoma State, I am still not convinced that Brandon Weeden can be effective in the NFL, as Oklahoma State is a program that runs a system geared towards quarterbacks putting up big numbers. Others may be concerned more by his age, but I think the biggest concern should simply be whether or not he can succeed in an NFL offense. Making matters worse for Weeden is an almost non-existent receiving corps. Between Greg Little, Mohamed Massaquoi, Benjamin Watson, and Josh Cribbs, the Browns have one of the worst group of pass-catchers in the entire NFL. When two of your top receiving threats are known for returning punts and getting knocked out by James Harrison, you know that you cannot be in good shape in the passing game.
As far as the offensive line goes, Joe Thomas is one of the best left tackles in the game, and there is some more talent, but this is nothing more than an average group at best. The running game has the potential to be somewhat good, but with a passing attack that has the potential to be below-average at best, I think the Browns will struggle to score points this year, especially when they have to face the ferocious defenses of Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each.
Looking at the defensive side of the ball, I addressed their biggest problem earlier. They could not stop the run last season. As I look at the moves they made this offseason, I cannot see a big improvement in that area coming in the near future as well. The additions of Rucker and Parker do not do much to improve the rushing defense, and it seems like the Browns will rely on what they already had to step their games up. Cleveland has some talent on the defensive side of the ball in Joe Haden and D'Qwell Jackson, but I just don't think that this defense has enough to change games and make up for the offensive deficiencies of the team.
As far as special teams goes, Cleveland is pretty strong in this area. Josh Cribbs is one of the best return men in the league, Phil Dawson has a history of being a very good kicker, and Reggie Hodges is an above-average as well. However, unless this unit is absolutely spectacular, they won't be able to change games enough to keep Cleveland relevant.
Best-case scenario: Weeden adjusts to the NFL game right off the bat, Richardson shows signs that he can be a workhorse #1 back for years to come, the defense improves, and the Browns avoid last place in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Weeden's college success doesn't translate on to an NFL field, the offense gives Richardson no support, the defense continues to underwhelm, and the Browns have no chance in a division that fielded three postseason teams last year.
Realistic prediction: I have to lean more towards the worst-case scenario here. The AFC North is just too tough, and the Browns simply do not have enough firepower to compete. I think Richardson has the potential to be a very good running back, but I still have no idea how Weeden will turn out. Pair a question mark at quarterback, a rookie running back, a bad receiving corps, and a below-average defense, and I'll say I'm going to pick the Browns to finish 4-12.
Minnesota Vikings
Since the short-lived Brett Favre experiment ended in Minnesota, the Vikings have been on a downhill trend. The signing of an over-the-hill Donovan McNabb did not work out, and the team now finds itself with recently drafted Christian Ponder as its starting quarterback. Ponder got a shot to start last year, and the results were not too good, as the team finished 3-13. Ponder took a lot of heat for that, but it wasn't his fault that he was probably drafted too early. With that being said, Ponder did show some nice flashes of ability here and there, and now that he seems to have a full season ahead of him as the starting quarterback, he will have a chance to truly show what he can do. The thing that will hurt Ponder is the fact that he does not have a lot of talented players around him, and the one star player he does have to support him is coming off of a serious injury.
Non-divisional games: Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Seattle, St. Louis, Houston
Taking a look at the numbers from last season, we see a trend that has existed in Minnesota for quite some time now. The team was fourth in the NFL in rushing offense (thanks of course, to Adrian Peterson), and 11th in the league in defending the run. The passing game (both in terms of offensively and defensively) was where the Vikings really struggled. They finished 28th in the league in passing offense, and 26th in the league in passing defense. Therefore, it was a bit surprising to see Minnesota pass up the chance to draft the top wide receiver available in the draft (Justin Blackmon), as well as the top cornerback available (Morris Claiborne). Instead, they went with left tackle Matt Kalil, who no doubt has the potential to be a stalwart on the offensive line for years to come, but may not have filled the biggest holes that this team has. As always though, the draft is tough to judge after only a few months, and it will take a few years to see whether or not the Vikings made the right decision in drafting Kalil.
Offensively, as I said, Adrian Peterson is the obvious centerpiece. He has been one of the best running backs in the game for many years now, but his availability for the start of this season is in question due to a knee injury that he suffered at the end of last season. Peterson's recovery has been well ahead of schedule, but there is no certainty that he will be at full strength when the season opens. If he is fully healthy, his presence will take a ton of pressure of Ponder, and the young quarterback could have a chance to grow into the full-time starter. If Peterson is not fully healthy to begin the year, well, it could be a very long season in Minnesota.
The addition of Kalil makes the offensive line respectable, although still not anything more than that. The biggest question for the offense is who exactly will be catching passes from Ponder. Percy Harvin is a good wideout, but his skill set is not suited to be a number one receiver. He is not very big, and he is better in the open field as opposed to being consistently covered by the best cornerback on the opposing team. As far as the other targets for Ponder, we see a pretty below average group with guys like Jerome Simpson, Michael Jenkins, and Devin Aromashodu. Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson are the tight ends, and they are only average. Therefore, even if Ponder is able to improve, he still will not have the greatest bunch of targets to throw to, and it could seriously hurt the young quarterback's development. Much of the success of this offense is centered around the health of Peterson. If he is fully healthy and plays up to his normal standards, the Vikings will be able to run the ball and this could possibly open things up a bit for Ponder to show what he can do. If Peterson misses time, it will probably be a real struggle for the Vikings to score points.
Defensively, we see a somewhat similar situation that we do on offense. There is one legitimate superstar, a few somewhat nice pieces, and not much else. That superstar is defensive end Jared Allen. Not only can Allen get to the quarterback and rack up sacks in bunches, but he also excels in stopping the run. His overall abilities really helped play a part in any success that the defense had last year, as he is one of the few defensive linemen in the game that can flourish no matter who he has playing alongside him.
As the numbers reflect, the rest of the defensive line did do a pretty good job in stopping the run, but the Vikings back seven could not defend the pass. The combination of not be able to stop teams from throwing the ball, not being able to get off the field on third down (the Vikings ranked 29th in defensive third down percentage in 2011), and an offense that was unable to hold the ball long enough to help out the defense led to Minnesota ranking 31st in average points allowed.
The Vikings used their second and third draft picks to address the needs in the secondary, as they selected safety Harrison Smith and cornerback Josh Robinson. Smith should see the field as the starter from day one, and has first round talent with the potential to be pretty good. Robinson will start by providing a complementary role, but with Antoine Winfield nearing the end of his career, Robinson may need to step into a bigger role sooner rather than later. The linebacking corps is average at best.
The presence of Allen makes everyone around him better, and Smith could turn into a solid starter for years to come. There are a few mediocre starters around them, but Winfield is not the only one that is nearing the end of the line, as Kevin Williams has been a mainstay at the defensive tackle position, but he is aging as well.
Looking at Minnesota's special teams, we see an explosive kick returner in Percy Harvin, but since he is also the teams number one receiving threat, he will likely be protected and not allowed to be the true threat that he can be when he returns both punts and kicks. Chris Kluwe is an above-average punter, but Blair Walsh is a rookie kicker, and is an unknown at this point. Harvin has the ability to be a game changer though, so his presence alone makes this special teams unit somewhat formidable, although the potential lack of an offense may make this insignificant.
The schedule is about as easy on paper that a team could hope for, as the Vikings get the AFC South and the NFC West, which are probably the two weakest divisions in the league. Throw in games against Washington and Tampa Bay, and this is a schedule that many teams would love to have. However, the Vikings are simply not a very good team, and all of their opponents are probably happy to see Minnesota on their own schedule as well. We will have to wait and see what happens, but like any below-average team, there is no such thing as a sure victory no matter the opponent. The end the schedule is extremely tough though, as six of the Vikings' final seven game are against Chicago (twice), Green Bay (twice), Detroit, and Houston. If Minnesota is unable to win some games early on in the year, they could be a punching bag for teams making a run at the playoffs down the stretch.
Best-case scenario: Peterson is at full strength from day one, and his presence takes the load off of Ponder and allows the quarterback to develop despite having a below-average group of receivers. On defense, Jared Allen turns in another great year, and the players around him improve to at least make this a respectable all-around defense. At most, I'll say 6 wins.
Worst-case scenario: Peterson is not fully healthy to start the year, and never fully recovers due to this, the lack of a usually good running game forces Ponder to have to become a play maker that he will never be, Allen is the only good player on defense, and the Vikings finish 3-13 again with no chance in a tough division.
Realistic prediction: In my opinion, Peterson's health is what this all hinges on. If he can be at full strength all season, I think it will give Ponder a chance to turn into a pretty good quarterback. The lack of anything resembling a standout receiving game just won't allow the Vikings to keep up with a division containing three other teams with postseason aspirations. A schedule that, on paper, is one of the easiest in the league (as far as non-divisional games goes) is the only reason I see this team being able to be anywhere close to the rest of the division, but I still cannot see that happening. I want to say either 5 wins or 4 wins, but for the sake of making a concrete prediction, I will say Minnesota goes 4-12.
Next up in my team-by-team preview will be the Washington Redskins and the Buffalo Bills.
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