Throughout his college and professional career, Dez Bryant has been referred to by pretty much anyone who has seen him play as immensely gifted and talented. At Oklahoma State University, Bryant was often times unstoppable and was a star in the making. Now in his third year in the NFL, Bryant is being counted on by the Dallas Cowboys to be a centerpiece of their offense for years to come. There is no doubt that Bryant has the ability to be a star wide receiver, but off-field issues have become a growing concern.
Bryant was born in Texas in 1988, and his mother was arrested for selling drugs when he was only eight years old. During his four years in high school, he lived in eight different homes. Now being born into a dysfunctional family is obviously not his fault, but the environment around him as he grew up was obviously not an ideal one to raise a child in. If it were not for football, who knows where he would be right now. In college, he was able to showcase his on-field talents in front of the entire country, and he quickly became a star prospect who was destined for great success in the NFL.
However, off-field issues still cropped up from time to time in college, and although nothing too serious occurred, his problems became bigger after he entered the NFL. Bryant was sued in 2011 for over $800,000 in jewelry that he supposedly took without payment. Then, only about a month and a half ago, Bryant faced domestic violence charges for allegedly attacking his mother. Although those charges were eventually dropped, it certainly did not help his image, and it continued to add to the list of off-field issues that he seemed unable to avoid.
Only a few days ago, reports arose about a list of "guidelines" that the Dallas Cowboys had constructed for Bryant. These were not routes to run or plays to learn like most guidelines any wide receiver is faced with, these instead had nothing to do with football, and pertained to Bryant's personal life off the field.
There are obviously unwritten rules for athletes that are expected to be followed without question. What these guidelines that the Cowboys have placed upon Bryant show is that the Cowboys believe he is unable to control himself off the field. Some of these rules that Bryant must reportedly follow is a midnight curfew, a prohibition from attending strip clubs, mandatory counseling sessions twice each week, and a rotating security team that must accompany Bryant at all times. There have been conflicting reports about how these rules were constructed, who the party was that initiated their implementation, and how all parties involved feel about their existence.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones originally said that he had no knowledge of any kind of behavioral controls for Bryant, but he seemed to backtrack in recent days, and multiple parties have now claimed that Bryant himself initiated the effectuation of the set of guidelines. Details about the entire situation are still murky, but Bryant is scheduled to address the entire situation later this week. Until then, we can only speculate as to why these rules were implemented, and who initiated their implementation.
One thing we can be sure of though, is the fact that the Cowboys are even acknowledging this is because they know that Bryant will play a huge role in their success on the field. If he were a fringe player struggling to make the team, there is no way that his off-field issues would be overlooked. He would be cut immediately. However, because Bryant is so young and talented, he is getting chances that only a select few people would get. The Cowboys can claim that they are simply trying to help a young man with personal issues, but the fact of the matter is that they are simply protecting their investment. It may not be fair, but it is the 100% truth. The Dallas Cowboys, like every other professional sports franchise, is a business organization. It is one of the most popular and heralded businesses in the entire country. In order for the Cowboys to continue to prosper, they need to put the best product on the field that they are able to, and Dez Bryant will play a large part in doing so for the foreseeable future.
Whether it be in the world of sports, the world of entertainment, the world of business, or any other moneymaking enterprise, it cannot be denied that those with the most talent are also given the most leeway. Josh Hamilton was given a second chance by the Texas Rangers despite a long history of drug and alcohol addiction because of his talent. Martha Stewart was convicted of crimes that would normally bring about severe punishment. Hip-hop musician DMX has been convicted of multiple crimes, but has faced minimal punishments compared to what an unknown citizen might receive for the same crimes. However, because these particular examples have talents that are unique, they have been judged based upon a different standard than most people would be.
Even though the Cowboys are the team I dislike the most in all of sports, I still hope that Dez Bryant can conquer his off-field problems, because he could be in line for a new contract that will grant him more money than he ever could have imagined when he saw his mother plead guilty to a crime when he was only eight years old. However, what this situation also shows us is that talented athletes receive special treatment that most of us would never receive. It may not be fair, it may not be just, but it is the truth. The NFL is the most popular sport in the country, and because of that, Dez
Daily Giants Update: The final preseason game will be tomorrow night against the Patriots. I do not expect to see many starters for any extended period of time, but the game will be very important in determining who survives the final roster cuts, and we may see some players who will be called upon to step in and fill critical roles throughout the regular season.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: A loss last night against the first place Reds was disappointing, but at least it wasn't against the last place San Diego Padres. Tyler Skaggs was pretty good in his second career start, and we have almost reached the point that looking toward 2013 will be the main focus of the year, although until we are mathematically eliminated, I refuse to give up hope. Wade Miley (who at this point should be the NL Rookie of the Year but probably has no shot to win because he plays on the west coast and the voters have no interest in games played on the west coast) goes tonight against Johnny Cueto. All we can do is hope for the best. Let's Go Diamondbacks!
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Monday, August 27, 2012
2012 NFL Preview: Part Eleven
With rosters being cut down to 75 players today, the NFL season is inching closer and closer, and that means it is time for the next part of my team-by-team look at the upcoming season. Next up are the Detroit Lions and the Pittsburgh Steelers, the teams that finished second in 2011 in the NFC North and AFC North. To begin, I will start in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are a team that has been very successful over the past decade, and a 12-4 record along with a playoff berth in 2011 would qualify as a great year for most teams. For Pittsburgh though, success comes with playoff wins, and a heartbreaking overtime loss in the first round of the playoffs left a bad taste in the mouth of Steeler nation. The team did lose a few pieces in the offseason, most notably longtime Steelers great Hines Ward, but they still believe that they have a good enough team to be right in the thick of things when January rolls around.
Non-divisional opponents: Denver, NY Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, Tennessee, Washington, NY Giants, Kansas City, San Diego, Dallas
Looking at the numbers from 2011, the first thing that jumps off the page is how successful the defense was. Pittsburgh's defense was the best in the NFL in points allowed, total yards allowed, and passing yards allowed. They were also 8th in rushing yards allowed. They were the true definition of a standout defense in a league that was full of offense. The offense was in the top half of the league in most categories as well, so it was no surprise that this team went to the playoffs.
One oddity that hurt the team was the fact that despite such a good defense, their -13 turnover margin was the worst in the entire AFC. If their defense can force more turnovers than in 2011, they have a chance to be just as good as they were in 2012.
With the retirement of Hines Ward, the new undisputed leader of this team is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is not the most elegant of quarterbacks, but he is still one of the best in the game today, as his two Super Bowl rings would suggest. Roethlisberger is one of only three starting quarterbacks in the game with multiple Super Bowl championships. However, due to a few factors, Roethlisberger seems to be constantly playing while hurt. His toughness is probably the best in the league at his position, but he was playing hurt for multiple games again during 2011. Part of his injury history is due to his style of play, and probably more of it has to do with what has been a porous offensive line for multiple years now, but if he is unable to stay healthy for the year, despite his incredible toughness and ability to play through pain, the Steelers will not be able to get him a third Super Bowl ring.
During the recent run of success in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have always been able to support Roethlisberger with a stellar running game. Whether it was Jerome Bettis, Willie Parker, or Rashard Mendenhall carrying the load, Roethlisberger has always been able to count on solid support in the backfield. That changed in Pittsburgh's regular season finale last year though, as Mendenhall suffered a serious knee injury that forced him out of the playoff game the next week and will likely sideline him for multiple weeks at the beginning of this year as well. The Steelers are still unsure when he will be able to return, but it is likely that he will miss multiple games to begin 2012.
In place of Mendenhall, Isaac Redman will probably get the most carries, and while he has been solid as a number two back, he has never proven that he can be a bellcow back. Pittsburgh also has Jonathan Dwyer to support Redman, and keep an eye on Baron Batch and rookie Chris Rainey, either of who could step in and provide some help as well. If the combination of these four backs can prove to be serviceable while Mendenhall recovers, the Steelers could find themselves with a ton of depth in the backfield by midseason.
The receiving corps in Pittsburgh has been led by Hines Ward for a long time, but he retired after the 2011 season, and Mike Wallace is officially the new star at the receiver position. Wallace is extremely explosive and is a threat to turn any catch into a touchdown. Pittsburgh did a very good job of slowly diminishing the role of Ward last year, and it really allowed Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders to improve. They will both be counted on to step in and fill larger roles in support of Wallace. Longtime Steeler Heath Miller returns as the tight end, and he has provided Roethlisberger with a steady security blanket for many years now. He will be counted on to fill that role again in 2012.
The biggest, and most glaring, problem for the Steelers recently has been the offensive line. While Roethlisberger's ability to avoid defenses and extend plays has played a part in his injuries, he has also had little support from his front five, and the combination of both has come back to haunt the Steelers more often than they would like.
The best player up front is definitely center Maurkice Pouncey. Like his brother, he is both young and talented, and he has the potential to make multiple Pro Bowls in the very near future. Pittsburgh addressed their need for help up front in the draft by selecting guard David DeCastro. DeCastro suffered a pretty serious knee injury in Pittsburgh's third preseason game, and his status for the season is in question. He will probably be able to return at some point, but it might not be until the latter part of the year.
The five guys up front are still by far the biggest question mark in Pittsburgh though, and losing DeCastro before the season has even begun is a serious blow. Until they prove otherwise, the offensive line will be the weakest part of this team, and Roethlisberger will have a tough time avoiding hits from opposing defenders.
As far as the defense goes, the numbers from last year cannot be denied. This is one of the best defensive units in the league. When you talk about the defense of the Steelers, you have to begin with the linebackers. Playing a 3-4 system means that you need to have a strong group of linebackers, and the Steelers have just that. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison combine to form one of the best outside linebacker tandems in the NFL, and with Lawrence Timmons playing inside, this is a unit that will be feared each and every week.
Up front, the line has been led by nose tackle Casey Hampton, and he can still occupy multiple blockers, although he is getting up there in age so he is not the dominating presence that he once was. Brett Keisel also is a very good 3-4 defensive end, and the line is still definitely formidable.
The secondary is led by (in my opinion) one of the most exciting players to watch in the history of the league, Troy Polamalu. Polamalu can defend the run and the pass unbelievably well, and although his age is starting to creep higher and higher, he is still one of the best safeties in the game today. If it were not for Polamalu, Ryan Clark would be more highly regarded in the eyes of most fans, but his talent is overshadowed by that of his running mate. Clark is still a very good free safety that gets the job done.
The depth at cornerback is a bit of a concern however, as Ike Taylor is a very good defender (although he chose the worst time of the year to play a terrible game in Denver in the playoffs) but the talent behind him is not too great. This isn't the hugest concern, but it would be nice if Pittsburgh could get one of its other cornerbacks to step up and become a legitimate number two.
The special teams unit in Pittsburgh is about average. Shaun Suisham and Jeremy Kapinos do a respectable job as the kicker and punter, but neither is a standout. Antonio Brown has been a dynamic returner, but with his role on offense growing, it is likely that the Steelers will look to some younger players to return kicks and punts, so the jury is still out as far as their return game goes.
Looking at the schedule, we see a slate of games that is pretty tough. Playing against the NFC East will be no easy task, and the Steelers also will have to go to Denver in Week 1 to try to avenge their playoff loss from last year. Pittsburgh will not play a divisional game until Week 7, and they will get the Ravens twice within a three game span in Weeks 11-13. There are no easy stretches on the schedule, so Pittsburgh will be challenged from start to finish in 2012.
Best-case scenario: The running game can stay afloat until Rashard Mendenhall returns, the offensive line is able to protect Roethlisberger and allow him to stay healthy for all 16 games, the defense plays just as well as it did last year, and the Steelers make a deep playoff run (possibly all the way to a Lombardi Trophy).
Worst-case scenario: The offensive line is unable to protect Roethlisberger and he is forced to play at less than 100% for the majority of the year, the defense regresses and some of the stars begin to show their age, and the Steelers miss the playoffs in what will be a tough division.
Realistic prediction: I am still concerned about the offensive line here. No matter how tough Roethlisberger is, he still will need some kind of help from his offensive line. I think the receivers can step up and make up for the loss of Ward, and I still think that the defense will be good (although maybe not spectacular like last season). I'm going to say that Pittsburgh will go 10-6 and challenge for a postseason berth.
Detroit Lions
After a long period of putrid football that included the first 0-16 season in the history of the NFL, the Lions turned into contenders in 2012, finishing 10-6 and making the playoffs. The season was highlighted by the emergence of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson as one of the most dangerous quarterback-wide receiver tandems in the league. Stafford was able to stay healthy for the entire year and had a great year, while Johnson has become, most would say, the best at his position in all of football.
Detroit is still not a perfect team, but making the postseason last year was a giant leap forward, and the 2012 Lions will have higher expectations than any Lions team in a very long time.
Non-divisional opponents: St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Seattle, Jacksonville, Houston, Indianapolis, Arizona, Atlanta
A look at the numbers from 2011 show exactly how important Stafford and Johnson were to this team. The passing game was 4th best in the league, and the Lions were 5th in the league in total yards, as well as 4th in scoring. After that, the numbers are not as pretty. The 29th ranked rushing attack shows how much of a problem the running back position is, and the Lions defense was no higher than 22nd in any major category. Detroit did not make any major splashes in free agency, so they will be counting on improvement from the players surrounding Johnson and Stafford. If they can get better production from the supporting cast, the Lions could be a force to be reckoned with again in 2012.
As I have already mentioned, Matthew Stafford had a great 2011 season, and the former number one overall pick seems like he will be able to be the franchise quarterback that the Lions have been unable to find in a long, long time. However, Stafford has had a history of injuries, and 2011 was the first time he was finally fully healthy for a full season. Another injury-free season should be enough to prove that Stafford can be one of the best quarterbacks in the league for many years to come.
The 29th ranked rushing attack in the NFL obviously shows how one-dimensional this offense was in 2011. While Detroit's passing attack is one of the league's best, the team will greatly benefit from an improved rushing attack to take some of the pressure off of Stafford and his receiving corps. The problem is, the season has not even started yet and the Lions already have multiple issues in their backfield.
Jahvid Best is the top option at running back, but he has a lengthy injury history and will miss over a month to start the year. The second option is Mikel Leshoure, and he will miss the first two games of the year due to a suspension. The next option, Kevin Smith, suffered an ankle injury in the Lions third preseason game, but the injury doesn't appear too serious, and Smith should be the starter in Week 1. Smith played well in a few starts last year and if he can hold the fort down early in the year, the backfield of the Lions can be at full strength by midseason. Still, starting the year with the number three back on the depth chart certainly is not a good thing for a rushing attack that was already one of the worst in the NFL.
The group of receivers is headlined by Johnson, but he is by no means the only threat that Stafford has to throw to. Nate Burleson is not a household name when mentioning the best number two wideouts in the game, but with so much attention paid to Johnson by opposing defenses, Burleson has settled into a nice complementary role. Titus Young is also a very good third option, and he is still young with plenty of time to get better. Detroit also drafted Ryan Broyles in the second round to add even more depth.
At the tight end position, Detroit has Brandon Pettigrew, and he is developing into a top-flight option as well. With another full year of health from Stafford, this passing game actually has the potential to be even better than it was a season ago.
The offensive line is only average. The team drafted offensive tackle Riley Reiff with their first round pick, and they hope that he can make an impact sooner rather than later. Improvement from the group up front will not only open up holes for the running backs, but it will give Stafford a better chance to stay healthy.
Moving to the defensive side of the ball, the group up front is the strength. Ndamukong Suh is the biggest name of the bunch, although the reason for that is not only his on-field performance, but also his poor on-field behavior. He came into the league as a rookie in 2010 and had an unbelievably good year. In 2011, he regressed in terms of both his play on the field, but he also became known for his growing list of fines and suspensions. He is quickly gaining the reputation as one of the dirtiest players in the league, and it seemed as though that reputation hurt him and played a part in his statistical regression in 2011. Suh has made multiple proclamations about improving his on-field behavior, but he has not done enough to prove that he is truly committed to doing so. When at his best, he can be one of the most dominant forces in the game at the defensive tackle position, but he needs to control what is quickly becoming an attitude problem that could really hinder the growth of the defense as a whole.
The Lions also feature a very good group of defensive ends that can rush opposing passers. Kyle Vanden Bosch is a seasoned veteran who can still provide pressure off the edge. On the other side, Cliff Avril has shown a great deal of improvement and with Suh providing a potentially dominating presence in the middle of the line, Avril has been able to produce a lot of sacks. The Lions will count on him to do more of the same in 2012.
The linebacking group does not contain any superstars. They are an average group that greatly benefits from the talent on the line in front of them. Detroit used two late-round draft picks on the linebacker position with the hope that they can at least have good depth at the position, even if the group contains no standouts.
The secondary, like the linebacking corps, is only average. The team was 22nd in the league defending the pass in 2011, and that will need to improve, especially with more than a few teams on the schedule that feature very potent passing attacks. The two safeties are the best of the group, with free safety Louis Delmas being the best of the bunch. Detroit used three draft picks on defensive backs, and they added Jacob Lacey in free agency as well. Like the linebacking group, the Lions at least are attempting to build a lot of depth in the secondary.
The special teams group can get the job done, but is nothing spectacular. Jason Hanson, who has seemingly played forever, remains the kicker and Ryan Donahue is the punter. Stefan Logan can also be an explosive returner at times.
The schedule is not extremely difficult, but the Lions will play some tough games out of their division. The NFC North itself is a strong division though, and the head to head matchups between Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay will likely decide who makes the postseason and who stays home.
Best-case scenario: Stafford and Johnson are both able to repeat their exceptional 2011 seasons, the running game at least stays afloat and can get back to full strength by the second half of the season, Suh keeps his behavior in check and turns in a dominant season that allows the rest of the defense around him to succeed, and the Lions win the division.
Worst-case scenario: Stafford gets injured, the running game is nowhere to be found, Suh adds to his growing list of fines and suspensions, the defense is exposed due to a down year from the group up front, and the Lions cannot keep up with Green Bay and Chicago in the division.
Realistic prediction: I still need to see Stafford remain fully healthy for another year before I can believe that he will be a star going forward, but his 2011 season was undeniably great. The Lions passing attack has the potential to be extremely potent, but the problems at running back before the season has even started certainly does not help. In a division with an extremely good Packers team, and a Bears team that has improved a lot, I am going to say that the Lions take a small step back in 2012 and finish with a record of 9-7.
That ends part eleven of my look at the upcoming NFL season. Next up will be the New York Jets and the Dallas Cowboys. That should be fun...
Daily Giants Update: There were a lot of good things that came from the third preseason game. The fourth and final game will be used almost exclusively to decide the final spots on the roster, and we are unlikely to see a lot of the starters much, if even at all. Nine days and counting until the season officially begins.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Ugh
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are a team that has been very successful over the past decade, and a 12-4 record along with a playoff berth in 2011 would qualify as a great year for most teams. For Pittsburgh though, success comes with playoff wins, and a heartbreaking overtime loss in the first round of the playoffs left a bad taste in the mouth of Steeler nation. The team did lose a few pieces in the offseason, most notably longtime Steelers great Hines Ward, but they still believe that they have a good enough team to be right in the thick of things when January rolls around.
Non-divisional opponents: Denver, NY Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, Tennessee, Washington, NY Giants, Kansas City, San Diego, Dallas
Looking at the numbers from 2011, the first thing that jumps off the page is how successful the defense was. Pittsburgh's defense was the best in the NFL in points allowed, total yards allowed, and passing yards allowed. They were also 8th in rushing yards allowed. They were the true definition of a standout defense in a league that was full of offense. The offense was in the top half of the league in most categories as well, so it was no surprise that this team went to the playoffs.
One oddity that hurt the team was the fact that despite such a good defense, their -13 turnover margin was the worst in the entire AFC. If their defense can force more turnovers than in 2011, they have a chance to be just as good as they were in 2012.
With the retirement of Hines Ward, the new undisputed leader of this team is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is not the most elegant of quarterbacks, but he is still one of the best in the game today, as his two Super Bowl rings would suggest. Roethlisberger is one of only three starting quarterbacks in the game with multiple Super Bowl championships. However, due to a few factors, Roethlisberger seems to be constantly playing while hurt. His toughness is probably the best in the league at his position, but he was playing hurt for multiple games again during 2011. Part of his injury history is due to his style of play, and probably more of it has to do with what has been a porous offensive line for multiple years now, but if he is unable to stay healthy for the year, despite his incredible toughness and ability to play through pain, the Steelers will not be able to get him a third Super Bowl ring.
During the recent run of success in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have always been able to support Roethlisberger with a stellar running game. Whether it was Jerome Bettis, Willie Parker, or Rashard Mendenhall carrying the load, Roethlisberger has always been able to count on solid support in the backfield. That changed in Pittsburgh's regular season finale last year though, as Mendenhall suffered a serious knee injury that forced him out of the playoff game the next week and will likely sideline him for multiple weeks at the beginning of this year as well. The Steelers are still unsure when he will be able to return, but it is likely that he will miss multiple games to begin 2012.
In place of Mendenhall, Isaac Redman will probably get the most carries, and while he has been solid as a number two back, he has never proven that he can be a bellcow back. Pittsburgh also has Jonathan Dwyer to support Redman, and keep an eye on Baron Batch and rookie Chris Rainey, either of who could step in and provide some help as well. If the combination of these four backs can prove to be serviceable while Mendenhall recovers, the Steelers could find themselves with a ton of depth in the backfield by midseason.
The receiving corps in Pittsburgh has been led by Hines Ward for a long time, but he retired after the 2011 season, and Mike Wallace is officially the new star at the receiver position. Wallace is extremely explosive and is a threat to turn any catch into a touchdown. Pittsburgh did a very good job of slowly diminishing the role of Ward last year, and it really allowed Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders to improve. They will both be counted on to step in and fill larger roles in support of Wallace. Longtime Steeler Heath Miller returns as the tight end, and he has provided Roethlisberger with a steady security blanket for many years now. He will be counted on to fill that role again in 2012.
The biggest, and most glaring, problem for the Steelers recently has been the offensive line. While Roethlisberger's ability to avoid defenses and extend plays has played a part in his injuries, he has also had little support from his front five, and the combination of both has come back to haunt the Steelers more often than they would like.
The best player up front is definitely center Maurkice Pouncey. Like his brother, he is both young and talented, and he has the potential to make multiple Pro Bowls in the very near future. Pittsburgh addressed their need for help up front in the draft by selecting guard David DeCastro. DeCastro suffered a pretty serious knee injury in Pittsburgh's third preseason game, and his status for the season is in question. He will probably be able to return at some point, but it might not be until the latter part of the year.
The five guys up front are still by far the biggest question mark in Pittsburgh though, and losing DeCastro before the season has even begun is a serious blow. Until they prove otherwise, the offensive line will be the weakest part of this team, and Roethlisberger will have a tough time avoiding hits from opposing defenders.
As far as the defense goes, the numbers from last year cannot be denied. This is one of the best defensive units in the league. When you talk about the defense of the Steelers, you have to begin with the linebackers. Playing a 3-4 system means that you need to have a strong group of linebackers, and the Steelers have just that. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison combine to form one of the best outside linebacker tandems in the NFL, and with Lawrence Timmons playing inside, this is a unit that will be feared each and every week.
Up front, the line has been led by nose tackle Casey Hampton, and he can still occupy multiple blockers, although he is getting up there in age so he is not the dominating presence that he once was. Brett Keisel also is a very good 3-4 defensive end, and the line is still definitely formidable.
The secondary is led by (in my opinion) one of the most exciting players to watch in the history of the league, Troy Polamalu. Polamalu can defend the run and the pass unbelievably well, and although his age is starting to creep higher and higher, he is still one of the best safeties in the game today. If it were not for Polamalu, Ryan Clark would be more highly regarded in the eyes of most fans, but his talent is overshadowed by that of his running mate. Clark is still a very good free safety that gets the job done.
The depth at cornerback is a bit of a concern however, as Ike Taylor is a very good defender (although he chose the worst time of the year to play a terrible game in Denver in the playoffs) but the talent behind him is not too great. This isn't the hugest concern, but it would be nice if Pittsburgh could get one of its other cornerbacks to step up and become a legitimate number two.
The special teams unit in Pittsburgh is about average. Shaun Suisham and Jeremy Kapinos do a respectable job as the kicker and punter, but neither is a standout. Antonio Brown has been a dynamic returner, but with his role on offense growing, it is likely that the Steelers will look to some younger players to return kicks and punts, so the jury is still out as far as their return game goes.
Looking at the schedule, we see a slate of games that is pretty tough. Playing against the NFC East will be no easy task, and the Steelers also will have to go to Denver in Week 1 to try to avenge their playoff loss from last year. Pittsburgh will not play a divisional game until Week 7, and they will get the Ravens twice within a three game span in Weeks 11-13. There are no easy stretches on the schedule, so Pittsburgh will be challenged from start to finish in 2012.
Best-case scenario: The running game can stay afloat until Rashard Mendenhall returns, the offensive line is able to protect Roethlisberger and allow him to stay healthy for all 16 games, the defense plays just as well as it did last year, and the Steelers make a deep playoff run (possibly all the way to a Lombardi Trophy).
Worst-case scenario: The offensive line is unable to protect Roethlisberger and he is forced to play at less than 100% for the majority of the year, the defense regresses and some of the stars begin to show their age, and the Steelers miss the playoffs in what will be a tough division.
Realistic prediction: I am still concerned about the offensive line here. No matter how tough Roethlisberger is, he still will need some kind of help from his offensive line. I think the receivers can step up and make up for the loss of Ward, and I still think that the defense will be good (although maybe not spectacular like last season). I'm going to say that Pittsburgh will go 10-6 and challenge for a postseason berth.
Detroit Lions
After a long period of putrid football that included the first 0-16 season in the history of the NFL, the Lions turned into contenders in 2012, finishing 10-6 and making the playoffs. The season was highlighted by the emergence of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson as one of the most dangerous quarterback-wide receiver tandems in the league. Stafford was able to stay healthy for the entire year and had a great year, while Johnson has become, most would say, the best at his position in all of football.
Detroit is still not a perfect team, but making the postseason last year was a giant leap forward, and the 2012 Lions will have higher expectations than any Lions team in a very long time.
Non-divisional opponents: St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Seattle, Jacksonville, Houston, Indianapolis, Arizona, Atlanta
A look at the numbers from 2011 show exactly how important Stafford and Johnson were to this team. The passing game was 4th best in the league, and the Lions were 5th in the league in total yards, as well as 4th in scoring. After that, the numbers are not as pretty. The 29th ranked rushing attack shows how much of a problem the running back position is, and the Lions defense was no higher than 22nd in any major category. Detroit did not make any major splashes in free agency, so they will be counting on improvement from the players surrounding Johnson and Stafford. If they can get better production from the supporting cast, the Lions could be a force to be reckoned with again in 2012.
As I have already mentioned, Matthew Stafford had a great 2011 season, and the former number one overall pick seems like he will be able to be the franchise quarterback that the Lions have been unable to find in a long, long time. However, Stafford has had a history of injuries, and 2011 was the first time he was finally fully healthy for a full season. Another injury-free season should be enough to prove that Stafford can be one of the best quarterbacks in the league for many years to come.
The 29th ranked rushing attack in the NFL obviously shows how one-dimensional this offense was in 2011. While Detroit's passing attack is one of the league's best, the team will greatly benefit from an improved rushing attack to take some of the pressure off of Stafford and his receiving corps. The problem is, the season has not even started yet and the Lions already have multiple issues in their backfield.
Jahvid Best is the top option at running back, but he has a lengthy injury history and will miss over a month to start the year. The second option is Mikel Leshoure, and he will miss the first two games of the year due to a suspension. The next option, Kevin Smith, suffered an ankle injury in the Lions third preseason game, but the injury doesn't appear too serious, and Smith should be the starter in Week 1. Smith played well in a few starts last year and if he can hold the fort down early in the year, the backfield of the Lions can be at full strength by midseason. Still, starting the year with the number three back on the depth chart certainly is not a good thing for a rushing attack that was already one of the worst in the NFL.
The group of receivers is headlined by Johnson, but he is by no means the only threat that Stafford has to throw to. Nate Burleson is not a household name when mentioning the best number two wideouts in the game, but with so much attention paid to Johnson by opposing defenses, Burleson has settled into a nice complementary role. Titus Young is also a very good third option, and he is still young with plenty of time to get better. Detroit also drafted Ryan Broyles in the second round to add even more depth.
At the tight end position, Detroit has Brandon Pettigrew, and he is developing into a top-flight option as well. With another full year of health from Stafford, this passing game actually has the potential to be even better than it was a season ago.
The offensive line is only average. The team drafted offensive tackle Riley Reiff with their first round pick, and they hope that he can make an impact sooner rather than later. Improvement from the group up front will not only open up holes for the running backs, but it will give Stafford a better chance to stay healthy.
Moving to the defensive side of the ball, the group up front is the strength. Ndamukong Suh is the biggest name of the bunch, although the reason for that is not only his on-field performance, but also his poor on-field behavior. He came into the league as a rookie in 2010 and had an unbelievably good year. In 2011, he regressed in terms of both his play on the field, but he also became known for his growing list of fines and suspensions. He is quickly gaining the reputation as one of the dirtiest players in the league, and it seemed as though that reputation hurt him and played a part in his statistical regression in 2011. Suh has made multiple proclamations about improving his on-field behavior, but he has not done enough to prove that he is truly committed to doing so. When at his best, he can be one of the most dominant forces in the game at the defensive tackle position, but he needs to control what is quickly becoming an attitude problem that could really hinder the growth of the defense as a whole.
The Lions also feature a very good group of defensive ends that can rush opposing passers. Kyle Vanden Bosch is a seasoned veteran who can still provide pressure off the edge. On the other side, Cliff Avril has shown a great deal of improvement and with Suh providing a potentially dominating presence in the middle of the line, Avril has been able to produce a lot of sacks. The Lions will count on him to do more of the same in 2012.
The linebacking group does not contain any superstars. They are an average group that greatly benefits from the talent on the line in front of them. Detroit used two late-round draft picks on the linebacker position with the hope that they can at least have good depth at the position, even if the group contains no standouts.
The secondary, like the linebacking corps, is only average. The team was 22nd in the league defending the pass in 2011, and that will need to improve, especially with more than a few teams on the schedule that feature very potent passing attacks. The two safeties are the best of the group, with free safety Louis Delmas being the best of the bunch. Detroit used three draft picks on defensive backs, and they added Jacob Lacey in free agency as well. Like the linebacking group, the Lions at least are attempting to build a lot of depth in the secondary.
The special teams group can get the job done, but is nothing spectacular. Jason Hanson, who has seemingly played forever, remains the kicker and Ryan Donahue is the punter. Stefan Logan can also be an explosive returner at times.
The schedule is not extremely difficult, but the Lions will play some tough games out of their division. The NFC North itself is a strong division though, and the head to head matchups between Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay will likely decide who makes the postseason and who stays home.
Best-case scenario: Stafford and Johnson are both able to repeat their exceptional 2011 seasons, the running game at least stays afloat and can get back to full strength by the second half of the season, Suh keeps his behavior in check and turns in a dominant season that allows the rest of the defense around him to succeed, and the Lions win the division.
Worst-case scenario: Stafford gets injured, the running game is nowhere to be found, Suh adds to his growing list of fines and suspensions, the defense is exposed due to a down year from the group up front, and the Lions cannot keep up with Green Bay and Chicago in the division.
Realistic prediction: I still need to see Stafford remain fully healthy for another year before I can believe that he will be a star going forward, but his 2011 season was undeniably great. The Lions passing attack has the potential to be extremely potent, but the problems at running back before the season has even started certainly does not help. In a division with an extremely good Packers team, and a Bears team that has improved a lot, I am going to say that the Lions take a small step back in 2012 and finish with a record of 9-7.
That ends part eleven of my look at the upcoming NFL season. Next up will be the New York Jets and the Dallas Cowboys. That should be fun...
Daily Giants Update: There were a lot of good things that came from the third preseason game. The fourth and final game will be used almost exclusively to decide the final spots on the roster, and we are unlikely to see a lot of the starters much, if even at all. Nine days and counting until the season officially begins.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Ugh
Thursday, August 23, 2012
2012 NFL Preview: Part Ten
As we get deeper and deeper into my look at the upcoming NFL season, next up is the Titans and the Falcons. Both of these teams have a good amount of questions coming into this season for a number of reasons. As I write this, the Titans are actually playing on ESPN, so it works out nicely. I can not only watch them on TV, but I can give you all a preseason look at them as well.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans had an up and down year in 2011. The star of the team, running back Chris Johnson, got a new contract before last year, and he was expected to be the best running back in the NFL. The problem was, someone must have forgotten to tell him that. He got off to a terrible start before finally picking up the pace at the end of the season, but by his previous standards it was a bad year. He finished with 1,047 yards, which is still a great year, but for a guy that broke the 2,000 yard barrier the year before, it was a big drop off. He also only scored four touchdowns, which was a big disappointment. For the Titans to improve this season, they will need Johnson to produce much more offense than he did in 2011.
Non-divisional opponents: New England, San Diego, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, NY Jets, Green Bay
A look at the numbers from 2011 shows an offense that was below average, and the 31st ranked rushing average really reflects upon how poorly Johnson played. The passing attack was actually ranked 12th in the NFL, and the Titans have a group of receivers that are not exactly well known, but they are a pretty solid bunch. The scoring defense was 8th in the league, but the defense was below average in all other major categories, so the Titans can't expect a trend like that to continue in 2012. The defense needs to get better.
Aside from Johnson, the Titans also face a dilemma at the quarterback spot. Matt Hasselbeck was behind center for the majority of 2011, and although he is not nearly as respected as he should be, he put together a somewhat solid, if unspectacular season. That has been Hasselbeck's M.O. throughout his career. Going into 2012 though, the Titans have chosen to go with second year pro Jake Locker as their starting quarterback. Locker was highly touted coming out of the University of Washington when he was drafted, and the Titans hope that with a year learning from Hasselbeck and the staff under his belt, he can grow into the role of their starting quarterback and remain there for years to come. Locker does a lot of things well, and with Hasselbeck as a mentor, I think he has a chance to have a pretty good season.
The success of Locker, and the offense as a whole, largely will come down to how Chris Johnson performs. Was 2011 just an aberration? Or did Johnson get his big contract and then rest on his laurels? How Johnson performs this season will answer those questions. When at his best, Johnson is extremely explosive and can be unstoppable. However, if he is not focused, the offense will really suffer. If he is effective, the Titans can utilize the play-action pass to really fool defenses, and it will make Locker's transition into the starting role a lot easier.
As far as Locker's targets to throw to, they may not be household names, but he has a lot of solid options. Nate Washington had a very good 2011, and he seems like he is primed for another solid 2012. Kenny Britt is solid as well, but due to a combination of injuries and off-field problems, I am not sure that the Titans can count on him to be out there each and every week. He missed a lot of games in 2011 due to injury, and he is facing a possible suspension to start this year as well. Tennessee drafted wide receiver Kendall Wright out of Baylor in the first round this year, and he has the potential to be a nice weapon on the outside. Add a good receiving tight end in Jared Cook, along with Johnson's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and the Titans have a better receiving corps than the casual fan might see on paper.
The offensive line is solid. Left guard Steve Hutchinson is the most well-known of the group, and although he is still a good player, he is on the downside of his career. Left tackle Michael Roos is probably the best of the group, and as I have said many times before, a good left tackle really goes a long way in helping young quarterbacks develop, so the presence of Roos should help Locker a lot. The rest of the line is good, but the depth is not so great, so the group up front will have to stay healthy. If they can protect Locker and open up holes for Johnson, the Titans offense has the potential to be above average across the board.
The defensive side of the ball is where the Titans struggled last season, and they lost a few pieces, so the unit will have to improve in 2012. One notable move Tennessee made in the offseason was the addition of defensive end Kamerion Wimbley. Wimbley has developed into a very good pass rusher, and his presence alone will help everyone around him. The Titans drafted defensive end Derrick Morgan with the hope that he could provide a good pass rushing threat off the edge, but he has been a disappointment thus far. The team hopes that with the addition of Wimbley on the other side, Morgan will have more space to attack. Defensive tackle Jurrell
As far as the linebacking unit goes, the Titans really like middle linebacker Colin McCarthy, and outside linebacker Akeem Ayers can be pretty good as well. Will Witherspoon is beginning to show his age on the weak side, but Tennessee drafted outside linebacker Zach Brown out of North Carolina with their second round pick, so with a little seasoning, he might be able to possibly step in and give the Titans a solid second option behind the aging Witherspoon.
The secondary is where the Titans took the biggest hit in the offseason, as cornerback Cortland Finnegan left for St. Louis. Finnegan is known for his feistiness and willingness to get in the face of opposing receivers, but his talent as a corner is undeniable, and the Titans will miss him. Jason McCourty will replace him as the number one cornerback, and McCourty is young and talented, so the team will hope that he can develop into a solid number one cornerback. Michael Griffin is a talented safety, and he has good playmaking ability and ball skills. The secondary is respectable, but there is no denying that the loss of Finnegan will hurt a passing defense that was already in the bottom half of the league.
As far as special teams goes, the Titans have arguably the best kicker in the league in Rob Bironas. He has a booming leg and very good accuracy. As I write this, their return specialist Marc Mariani just went down with a leg injury that looked pretty serious. We will have to wait to see what the prognosis is, but his lower leg was bending in a direction that legs are not supposed to bend, so this might be the last we see of Mariani in 2012. Losing him would be a big blow to Tennessee's return game.
The schedule is somewhat tough, as the Titans will get an NFC North division that contains three good teams, as well as games against the Patriots, Chargers, and Steelers. The first four games of the year are extremely tough (New England, San Diego, Detroit, Houston), and Tennessee should be thrilled if they can go 2-2 during that stretch. On paper, this schedule looks to be pretty tough, and I'm not sure that a team with a rookie quarterback will be able to find a lot of success.
Best-case scenario: Johnson bounces back and puts up over 1,500 yards, in turn allowing Locker to ease his way into the quarterback spot and find some early success, the young players on defense improve as a unit, and the Titans finish second in their division.
Worst-case scenario: Johnson struggles again, Locker flops as the starting quarterback, the loss of Finnegan proves costly as the Titans cannot stop teams from throwing the ball against them, and the Titans find themselves near the bottom of the division and out of playoff contention by Thanksgiving.
Realistic prediction: I think the worst-case scenario is more likely here. Locker has some of the tools to be a solid quarterback, but thus far has been nothing spectacular. With a pretty tough schedule in front of them, I am going to say that the Titans finish 5-11.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a lot to prove in 2012. For some time now, Atlanta has been a team that has been able to succeed in the regular season, but they have continually fallen flat on their faces in the postseason. Over the past four seasons, the team has gone 11-5, 9-7, 13-3, and 10-6. They made the playoffs in three of those seasons, but did not win one playoff game in any of them, and they have not won any postseason game since 2004. I was shocked at how lifeless the team looked in the postseason last year when they lost 24-2 to my Giants. It was as if they had given up by the start of the third quarter. Unless they are finally able to turn regular season success into postseason success, the Falcons may need to make some serious changes.
Non-divisional opponents: Kansas City, Denver, San Diego, Washington, Oakland, Philadelphia, Dallas, Arizona, NY Giants, Detroit
The numbers from 2011 show a team that was above average pretty much across the board. The weakest part of their offense was the 17th ranked rushing attack, but with a very good running back in Michael Turner, I don't think that the running game is too much of a concern.
Defensively, the weakest link was the secondary. The Falcons added Asante Samuel to try to address this, but there is a reason that the Eagles were willing to let him go. He is not the standout corner that he was with the Patriots, and they will need improvement from their holdovers in the secondary to prevent teams from being able to throw the ball against them again.
Matt Ryan is an enigma at quarterback. There have been a growing number of rookie quarterbacks that have found instant success in their first year in the league, but he seemed to set that trend during his rookie season. He has been very solid as the quarterback of the Falcons, and has an unbelievably good record in home games since he came into the league, but the failures of the team in the postseason have mirrored Ryan's play. There is only so long that a player can go before they need to step up in the big games, and Ryan is reaching the point that he has to do so. As of now, he is a very good quarterback, but until he finally starts to lead the Falcons to victories in the playoffs, he will never reach the level of the best in the game.
The running game has been a staple in the offense of the Falcons for the last few seasons. Coming over from San Diego as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson, there were some questions about how Michael Turner would perform as the starting running back. He is on the smaller side and had never shouldered the load as a full-time number one back, but he has since answered all of those questions and become a workhorse back that the Falcons can count on. His durability and toughness have allowed him to pass most reasonable expectations of him, and he has become one of the best backs in the NFL since coming to Atlanta.
The receiving corps in Atlanta is also a definite strength. Number one wideout Roddy White is a legitimate star, and Julio Jones seems to be establishing himself as a great number two option for Ryan to throw to. Tight end Tony Gonzalez may be getting old, but he is one of the best at his position in the history of the game, and he is still a very effective weapon, especially when teams have to double cover the receivers and he can roam freely in the middle of the field. Harry Douglas is an unknown name to a lot of people, but as the number four receiving option, he is well above average. As far as skill position players around him, Ryan has plenty of great weapons that he can utilize in all kinds of different ways.
The offensive line is the weakest part of this offense, and if the guys up front can improve, this offense has the potential to be one of the best in the league. Right tackle Tyson Clabo is the best of the bunch, and while no one on the line is terrible, there is also no one that is great. If the unit can play better, then it will make things a lot easier for the rest of the offense to put up points.
The defensive line, like the offensive line, is good but not great. John Abraham has been one of the best in the business at rushing the passer for a while, but he does not have the quickness and burst that he once had. He can still cause problems for opposing quarterbacks, but the Falcons cannot count on him to take over games by himself like he once did. Corey Peters can be pretty good inside, and Ray Edwards is a respectable pass rusher opposite Abraham, so Atlanta will need someone besides Abraham to be able to provide consistent pressure on opposing offenses.
The linebacking corps is only average at best. Outside linebacker Sean Witherspoon is the best of the bunch, but the rest of the group is unspectacular. The team added Lofa Tatupu in the offseason, and he had some good years in Seattle, but has been disappointing recently. The linebackers will need to step up and not be the weak link of the defense.
In the secondary, Atlanta has some players that have the potential to combine to form a pretty good unit, at least at the cornerback position. Brent Grimes has developed into a pretty good corner, and as I said before, Asante Samuel was added over the offseason. Although not a perfect cornerback, he still has terrific ball skills, but his tackling, as it has always been, is sub par. With more than a few teams on the schedule that have numerous receiving threats, Atlanta's secondary will need to play well.
The special teams unit is solid. Harry Douglas is a good threat as a returner. Matt Bryant and Matt Bosher are not outstanding, but they provide a kicking game that is good enough.
The schedule this year is pretty tough for the Falcons. They get the NFC East, which is arguably the best division in football, as well as the AFC West, which has some teams that are ascending. Atlanta only plays one division game in the first nine weeks of the year, so success in the second half of the season will be imperative. As I said before though, this is no longer a team that will be judged on its success in the regular season alone. Until they start winning postseason games, Atlanta will not be meeting expectations.
Best-case scenario: Ryan is able to put together a very good year and utilize the numerous weapons around him, the defense can step up and play better as a unit, and the Falcons finally can advance in the playoffs. Maybe not to the Super Bowl, but any kind of postseason victory will do at this point.
Worst-case scenario: The defense struggles and cannot stop many of the high-powered offenses that Atlanta will face, Atlanta gets overtaken by the Panthers in the division and misses the playoffs, and serious changes are made in the offseason, starting with the firing of head coach Mike Smith.
Realistic prediction: Until this team shows me that they can succeed in the postseason, recent history suggests that they will not meet the expectations that many have placed upon them for the past few years. A tough schedule ahead of them doesn't help. I'm going to say 9-7.
So that's all for part ten of my NFL preview series. Next will be a look at the second place teams from 2011 in the AFC and NFC North, the Lions and the Steelers.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans had an up and down year in 2011. The star of the team, running back Chris Johnson, got a new contract before last year, and he was expected to be the best running back in the NFL. The problem was, someone must have forgotten to tell him that. He got off to a terrible start before finally picking up the pace at the end of the season, but by his previous standards it was a bad year. He finished with 1,047 yards, which is still a great year, but for a guy that broke the 2,000 yard barrier the year before, it was a big drop off. He also only scored four touchdowns, which was a big disappointment. For the Titans to improve this season, they will need Johnson to produce much more offense than he did in 2011.
Non-divisional opponents: New England, San Diego, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, NY Jets, Green Bay
A look at the numbers from 2011 shows an offense that was below average, and the 31st ranked rushing average really reflects upon how poorly Johnson played. The passing attack was actually ranked 12th in the NFL, and the Titans have a group of receivers that are not exactly well known, but they are a pretty solid bunch. The scoring defense was 8th in the league, but the defense was below average in all other major categories, so the Titans can't expect a trend like that to continue in 2012. The defense needs to get better.
Aside from Johnson, the Titans also face a dilemma at the quarterback spot. Matt Hasselbeck was behind center for the majority of 2011, and although he is not nearly as respected as he should be, he put together a somewhat solid, if unspectacular season. That has been Hasselbeck's M.O. throughout his career. Going into 2012 though, the Titans have chosen to go with second year pro Jake Locker as their starting quarterback. Locker was highly touted coming out of the University of Washington when he was drafted, and the Titans hope that with a year learning from Hasselbeck and the staff under his belt, he can grow into the role of their starting quarterback and remain there for years to come. Locker does a lot of things well, and with Hasselbeck as a mentor, I think he has a chance to have a pretty good season.
The success of Locker, and the offense as a whole, largely will come down to how Chris Johnson performs. Was 2011 just an aberration? Or did Johnson get his big contract and then rest on his laurels? How Johnson performs this season will answer those questions. When at his best, Johnson is extremely explosive and can be unstoppable. However, if he is not focused, the offense will really suffer. If he is effective, the Titans can utilize the play-action pass to really fool defenses, and it will make Locker's transition into the starting role a lot easier.
As far as Locker's targets to throw to, they may not be household names, but he has a lot of solid options. Nate Washington had a very good 2011, and he seems like he is primed for another solid 2012. Kenny Britt is solid as well, but due to a combination of injuries and off-field problems, I am not sure that the Titans can count on him to be out there each and every week. He missed a lot of games in 2011 due to injury, and he is facing a possible suspension to start this year as well. Tennessee drafted wide receiver Kendall Wright out of Baylor in the first round this year, and he has the potential to be a nice weapon on the outside. Add a good receiving tight end in Jared Cook, along with Johnson's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and the Titans have a better receiving corps than the casual fan might see on paper.
The offensive line is solid. Left guard Steve Hutchinson is the most well-known of the group, and although he is still a good player, he is on the downside of his career. Left tackle Michael Roos is probably the best of the group, and as I have said many times before, a good left tackle really goes a long way in helping young quarterbacks develop, so the presence of Roos should help Locker a lot. The rest of the line is good, but the depth is not so great, so the group up front will have to stay healthy. If they can protect Locker and open up holes for Johnson, the Titans offense has the potential to be above average across the board.
The defensive side of the ball is where the Titans struggled last season, and they lost a few pieces, so the unit will have to improve in 2012. One notable move Tennessee made in the offseason was the addition of defensive end Kamerion Wimbley. Wimbley has developed into a very good pass rusher, and his presence alone will help everyone around him. The Titans drafted defensive end Derrick Morgan with the hope that he could provide a good pass rushing threat off the edge, but he has been a disappointment thus far. The team hopes that with the addition of Wimbley on the other side, Morgan will have more space to attack. Defensive tackle Jurrell
As far as the linebacking unit goes, the Titans really like middle linebacker Colin McCarthy, and outside linebacker Akeem Ayers can be pretty good as well. Will Witherspoon is beginning to show his age on the weak side, but Tennessee drafted outside linebacker Zach Brown out of North Carolina with their second round pick, so with a little seasoning, he might be able to possibly step in and give the Titans a solid second option behind the aging Witherspoon.
The secondary is where the Titans took the biggest hit in the offseason, as cornerback Cortland Finnegan left for St. Louis. Finnegan is known for his feistiness and willingness to get in the face of opposing receivers, but his talent as a corner is undeniable, and the Titans will miss him. Jason McCourty will replace him as the number one cornerback, and McCourty is young and talented, so the team will hope that he can develop into a solid number one cornerback. Michael Griffin is a talented safety, and he has good playmaking ability and ball skills. The secondary is respectable, but there is no denying that the loss of Finnegan will hurt a passing defense that was already in the bottom half of the league.
As far as special teams goes, the Titans have arguably the best kicker in the league in Rob Bironas. He has a booming leg and very good accuracy. As I write this, their return specialist Marc Mariani just went down with a leg injury that looked pretty serious. We will have to wait to see what the prognosis is, but his lower leg was bending in a direction that legs are not supposed to bend, so this might be the last we see of Mariani in 2012. Losing him would be a big blow to Tennessee's return game.
The schedule is somewhat tough, as the Titans will get an NFC North division that contains three good teams, as well as games against the Patriots, Chargers, and Steelers. The first four games of the year are extremely tough (New England, San Diego, Detroit, Houston), and Tennessee should be thrilled if they can go 2-2 during that stretch. On paper, this schedule looks to be pretty tough, and I'm not sure that a team with a rookie quarterback will be able to find a lot of success.
Best-case scenario: Johnson bounces back and puts up over 1,500 yards, in turn allowing Locker to ease his way into the quarterback spot and find some early success, the young players on defense improve as a unit, and the Titans finish second in their division.
Worst-case scenario: Johnson struggles again, Locker flops as the starting quarterback, the loss of Finnegan proves costly as the Titans cannot stop teams from throwing the ball against them, and the Titans find themselves near the bottom of the division and out of playoff contention by Thanksgiving.
Realistic prediction: I think the worst-case scenario is more likely here. Locker has some of the tools to be a solid quarterback, but thus far has been nothing spectacular. With a pretty tough schedule in front of them, I am going to say that the Titans finish 5-11.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a lot to prove in 2012. For some time now, Atlanta has been a team that has been able to succeed in the regular season, but they have continually fallen flat on their faces in the postseason. Over the past four seasons, the team has gone 11-5, 9-7, 13-3, and 10-6. They made the playoffs in three of those seasons, but did not win one playoff game in any of them, and they have not won any postseason game since 2004. I was shocked at how lifeless the team looked in the postseason last year when they lost 24-2 to my Giants. It was as if they had given up by the start of the third quarter. Unless they are finally able to turn regular season success into postseason success, the Falcons may need to make some serious changes.
Non-divisional opponents: Kansas City, Denver, San Diego, Washington, Oakland, Philadelphia, Dallas, Arizona, NY Giants, Detroit
The numbers from 2011 show a team that was above average pretty much across the board. The weakest part of their offense was the 17th ranked rushing attack, but with a very good running back in Michael Turner, I don't think that the running game is too much of a concern.
Defensively, the weakest link was the secondary. The Falcons added Asante Samuel to try to address this, but there is a reason that the Eagles were willing to let him go. He is not the standout corner that he was with the Patriots, and they will need improvement from their holdovers in the secondary to prevent teams from being able to throw the ball against them again.
Matt Ryan is an enigma at quarterback. There have been a growing number of rookie quarterbacks that have found instant success in their first year in the league, but he seemed to set that trend during his rookie season. He has been very solid as the quarterback of the Falcons, and has an unbelievably good record in home games since he came into the league, but the failures of the team in the postseason have mirrored Ryan's play. There is only so long that a player can go before they need to step up in the big games, and Ryan is reaching the point that he has to do so. As of now, he is a very good quarterback, but until he finally starts to lead the Falcons to victories in the playoffs, he will never reach the level of the best in the game.
The running game has been a staple in the offense of the Falcons for the last few seasons. Coming over from San Diego as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson, there were some questions about how Michael Turner would perform as the starting running back. He is on the smaller side and had never shouldered the load as a full-time number one back, but he has since answered all of those questions and become a workhorse back that the Falcons can count on. His durability and toughness have allowed him to pass most reasonable expectations of him, and he has become one of the best backs in the NFL since coming to Atlanta.
The receiving corps in Atlanta is also a definite strength. Number one wideout Roddy White is a legitimate star, and Julio Jones seems to be establishing himself as a great number two option for Ryan to throw to. Tight end Tony Gonzalez may be getting old, but he is one of the best at his position in the history of the game, and he is still a very effective weapon, especially when teams have to double cover the receivers and he can roam freely in the middle of the field. Harry Douglas is an unknown name to a lot of people, but as the number four receiving option, he is well above average. As far as skill position players around him, Ryan has plenty of great weapons that he can utilize in all kinds of different ways.
The offensive line is the weakest part of this offense, and if the guys up front can improve, this offense has the potential to be one of the best in the league. Right tackle Tyson Clabo is the best of the bunch, and while no one on the line is terrible, there is also no one that is great. If the unit can play better, then it will make things a lot easier for the rest of the offense to put up points.
The defensive line, like the offensive line, is good but not great. John Abraham has been one of the best in the business at rushing the passer for a while, but he does not have the quickness and burst that he once had. He can still cause problems for opposing quarterbacks, but the Falcons cannot count on him to take over games by himself like he once did. Corey Peters can be pretty good inside, and Ray Edwards is a respectable pass rusher opposite Abraham, so Atlanta will need someone besides Abraham to be able to provide consistent pressure on opposing offenses.
The linebacking corps is only average at best. Outside linebacker Sean Witherspoon is the best of the bunch, but the rest of the group is unspectacular. The team added Lofa Tatupu in the offseason, and he had some good years in Seattle, but has been disappointing recently. The linebackers will need to step up and not be the weak link of the defense.
In the secondary, Atlanta has some players that have the potential to combine to form a pretty good unit, at least at the cornerback position. Brent Grimes has developed into a pretty good corner, and as I said before, Asante Samuel was added over the offseason. Although not a perfect cornerback, he still has terrific ball skills, but his tackling, as it has always been, is sub par. With more than a few teams on the schedule that have numerous receiving threats, Atlanta's secondary will need to play well.
The special teams unit is solid. Harry Douglas is a good threat as a returner. Matt Bryant and Matt Bosher are not outstanding, but they provide a kicking game that is good enough.
The schedule this year is pretty tough for the Falcons. They get the NFC East, which is arguably the best division in football, as well as the AFC West, which has some teams that are ascending. Atlanta only plays one division game in the first nine weeks of the year, so success in the second half of the season will be imperative. As I said before though, this is no longer a team that will be judged on its success in the regular season alone. Until they start winning postseason games, Atlanta will not be meeting expectations.
Best-case scenario: Ryan is able to put together a very good year and utilize the numerous weapons around him, the defense can step up and play better as a unit, and the Falcons finally can advance in the playoffs. Maybe not to the Super Bowl, but any kind of postseason victory will do at this point.
Worst-case scenario: The defense struggles and cannot stop many of the high-powered offenses that Atlanta will face, Atlanta gets overtaken by the Panthers in the division and misses the playoffs, and serious changes are made in the offseason, starting with the firing of head coach Mike Smith.
Realistic prediction: Until this team shows me that they can succeed in the postseason, recent history suggests that they will not meet the expectations that many have placed upon them for the past few years. A tough schedule ahead of them doesn't help. I'm going to say 9-7.
So that's all for part ten of my NFL preview series. Next will be a look at the second place teams from 2011 in the AFC and NFC North, the Lions and the Steelers.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
NFL Preview: Part Nine
One more day goes by, and we are one day closer to real NFL football. Next in my team-by-team previews, we look at the teams that finished second in both the AFC West and the NFC West. That would be the Chargers and the Cardinals. First up is the San Diego Chargers.
San Diego Chargers
This is a team that seems to be constantly failing to meet expectations. The core has remained mostly the same, with mainstays like Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates headlining the roster, as well as Norv Turner leading the team as the head coach. However, this used to be a team that at least made the playoffs and underperformed. The past two seasons they have underperformed and failed to even make the playoffs. There have been calls for Norv Turner to be fired and for this team to be overhauled for quite some time now, and one more season without a playoff appearance might be enough to make that actually happen.
Non-divisional opponents: Tennessee, Atlanta, New Orleans, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Carolina, NY Jets
The offense was very good in San Diego last season. Philip Rivers is a very good quarterback that often times gets overlooked for a number of reasons, but he led the Chargers to the 6th ranked passing attack in the NFL, as well as the 5th best offense in terms of points per game. Ryan Mathews has done a good job in replacing future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson, but injuries have been a bit of a problem for him. The rushing attack still ranked 16th last year, which is acceptable for a team that was so good in the passing game. The defense was the weak spot here though, as the Chargers were 22nd in the league in scoring defense, and 20th in the league in stopping the run.
The Chargers suffered some big personnel losses over the offseason, but they did do a pretty nice job of trying to make up for some of those losses through both free agency and the draft.
As I said, Philip Rivers is an often overlooked quarterback, although he struggled a bit last season and made a few very costly mistakes that really hurt this team. He actually threw four interceptions that were run back for touchdowns last year, so things like that only make matters worse when you not only turn the ball over, but let opposing defenses score as well. Rivers is tough in terms of both his play and his mindset though, so I would be surprised if he didn't put together a better year than in 2011.
Ryan Mathews returns as the starting running back, and he can be a top-flight back when healthy. His health can be a concern a lot though, and Mathews already suffered a broken collarbone this offseason. It happened long enough ago that he could be back for the start of the season, but he may miss the opener. He won't be out long after that, if he is indeed out for Week 1, but with injuries already cropping up, the Chargers still need to be aware that he may not be in there for all 16 games. The Chargers brought in Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle to lighten the load on Mathews, and both of them have starting experience and would be able to provide some insurance in relief of Mathews, but Mathews will need to stay healthy for the Chargers offense to be at full strength.
San Diego also added LeRon McClain at the fullback position, and he can also carry the ball in short yardage situations. Hopefully for San Diego's sake, this depth will allow everyone to stay healthy throughout the year.
The biggest loss that the Chargers suffered was at the wide receiver, as Vincent Jackson left for Tampa Bay. Jackson developed into one of the game's best receivers while in San Diego, and he will be missed. To help replace Jackson, the Chargers brought in Robert Meacham and Eddie Royal, both of whom can be solid receivers, although neither are as good as Jackson. San Diego also has Malcolm Floyd, who has been developing into a good wideout. The team took a hit when Vincent Brown went down with an injury, and he will likely miss the majority of the season. Although the Chargers don't have a true number one receiver, they do have some solid threats on the outside.
The Chargers will also greatly benefit from the return of Rivers' favorite target, tight end Antonio Gates, to full health. Gates is not far away from a time when he was unquestionably the best tight end in the game, but injuries have caused him to miss games during the past few years. Gates is supposedly as healthy as he has been in a long time coming into 2012, and a good year from him will help make up for the loss of Jackson. If Gates can stay healthy all year, Mathews can stay healthy and continue to be a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield, and the receiving corps can combine to help lessen the blow of Jackson's departure, Rivers will still have a lot of targets to throw the ball to.
San Diego took a few big hits on the offensive line over the offseason, as Kris Dielman and Marcus McNeill are both gone. Both of them played big roles in protecting Rivers, and their losses will be tough to make up for. Center Nick Hardwick is the best of the bunch up front, and he actually allowed zero sacks and was penalized only once all of last season. The Chargers will need a similar season from their leader on the line, as well as some improvement from his surrounding linemen.
Takeo Spikes and Donald Butler in the middle, as well as the addition of Jarret Johnson to provide depth makes the linebacking corps a good one.
Up front, the best player is Corey Luiget, and the Chargers also added defensive end Kendall Reyes in the second round of the draft and they hope he can provide an immediate impact. In order to free the linebackers to make plays, the defensive linemen need to perform well.
Quentin Jammer is the top corner, and Antoine Cason is serviceable on the opposite side, but the best player on this defense is free safety Eric Weddle. Weddle tied for the NFL lead in interceptions last year, made the Pro Bowl, and is one of the best in the business at his position. His playmaking ability can cover up for a few of the deficiencies of the players around him, and the Chargers will need him to thrive again this year to protect the back end of this defense.
The special teams is above-average, as Nate Kaeding is a good kicker, although he is coming off a season-ending injury. Mike Scifres is an excellent punter. The returners are plentiful. None of them are truly special, but the Chargers have a lot of options to choose from to return kicks and punts, so they should be strong in this area.
The schedule is pretty tough, as the Chargers will get five teams that made the playoffs out of their ten non-divisional games. The Chiefs will be a team that will probably improve this year, and Denver will definitely be the favorite to win the division, so this will be no cakewalk for San Diego. A stretch of consecutive games against Denver, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh in Weeks 11-14 could define the season.
Best-case scenario: Everyone stays healthy, the offseason acquisitions are able to make up for the loss of some key players, the youngsters on defense step up, and San Diego wins the AFC West.
Worst-case scenario: The offense is plagued by injuries again, some of the players on defense begin to show their age and the others underperform, the Chargers finish last in the division, and a complete overhaul of the team and front office takes place at the end of the season.
Realistic prediction: I would expect the reality to be somewhat closer to the worst-case scenario here. The division around the Chargers is getting tougher, and the Chargers are slowly declining. The team finished 8-8 last year, and I think that 8-8 is a realistic expectation for this year as well.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals 2011 season was a tale of two halves. The team opened the year 1-6, but played well enough to finish second in a very weak division with a record of 8-8. The Cardinals won four overtime games, although counting on overtime wins is not exactly a tried and true recipe for success. While the strong finish left the team feeling better by the end of the year, there are still a lot of questions to be answered, and the biggest and most important question is at the quarterback position.
Non-divisional opponents: New England, Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, Minnesota, Green Bay, Atlanta, NY Jets, Detroit, Chicago
The numbers from last year do not paint a very pretty picture of the 2011 Cardinals. The offense was no better than 17th in the league in any major category, and the defense was no better than 16th. The Cardinals were pretty much a reflection of those numbers: below-average across the board. There are a few bright spots, but there remain more questions than answers.
As I said, the biggest question mark here is behind center. The Cardinals brought in Kevin Kolb and paid him a lot of money with the hope that he could become a franchise quarterback, and he has not come close to meeting those expectations. Arizona gave John Skelton a chance to start at the end of the season, and because his insertion coincided with the late season success of the team, Skelton has earned himself a shot to start the 2012 season behind center for the Cardinals. Now Skelton is far from a proven commodity, but the team and the fans have obviously been enormously disappointed by the play of Kolb, and this is a team that is probably only mediocre at best, so I think giving Skelton a shot to start is the correct decision.
One positive sign in 2011 was a very good year from running back Beanie Wells. Wells had been plagued by injuries throughout the early part of his career, but he put together a very good season in 2011, rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns. Wells will need to stay healthy again this year and put up similar numbers in order for the offense to be successful. The backup is Ryan Williams, and he has the potential to be a good number two option, but he has had health problems as well.
For all of the questions in Arizona, there is one thing that can be counted on, and that is Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is arguably the best wide receiver in the league. No matter the coverage, Fitzgerald can be extremely productive, and his presence alone makes Skelton better. The Cardinals also made an interesting addition in the draft, selecting wide receiver Michael Floyd from Notre Dame. The team hopes that Floyd can step in and provide a good number two option. A good rookie season from Floyd will help everyone on offense. Todd Heap is the tight end, although he is past his prime and is no longer close to the threat he was during his tenure in Baltimore.
The offensive line is a serious concern. None of the starters are standouts, and Skelton will have problems if the line is unable to protect him. Arizona used three draft picks on offensive linemen who might possibly have the potential to start, but until they prove anything on the field, the line will remain the weakest part of this team.
The defense is respectable but nothing spectacular. Calais Campbell has become the top pass rusher on the team, and he teams with Darnell Dockett to form a good pass rushing duo up front. The linebacking corps is nothing special. Arizona is pretty strong on the outside with O'Brien Schofield and young Sam Acho, who is probably the best linebacker on the team. This is a team that runs a 3-4 that actually gets more of a pass rush from its linemen though and not its linebackers.
The secondary is pretty good, and the group is led by strong safety Adrian Wilson, who has been a mainstay in the Cardinals organization for many years. Patrick Peterson is the young star at cornerback, and he has a ton of upside. Not only does he have the potential to become a good cover corner, but he is also extremely dangerous when he gets his hands on the ball.
Peterson also has elite return abilities on special teams, and he is already one of the best punt returners in the game. As the number one cornerback, the Cardinals obviously do not want to get him hurt running back kicks, but he has so much talent to do so that it is impossible to take him out of the punt return spot. He has game-changing abilities and is an elite special teams weapon.
Jay Feely and Dave Zastudil are also serviceable in the kicking game.
A look at the schedule should scare the Cardinals and their fans. The AFC East and NFC North are the divisions on the schedule, plus with games against the Eagles and Falcons, this is a tough schedule with no more than two consecutive games that could be considered "easy" on paper.
Best-case scenario: Skelton steps in and thrives as the starter, the team can avoid injuries and get good seasons from its rookies, the other youngsters continue to improve, and the Cardinals finish second in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Skelton is exposed as teams get to see more of him and he proves to be unworthy of a starting spot, Fitzgerald is the only legitimate threat on offense, the defense is unable to stop teams from outscoring a bad offense, and the Cardinals fight with the Rams to stay out of last place in the division.
Realistic prediction: A lot went right for the Cardinals last night to even get them to 8-8, and with an unproven quarterback in there for a full season, I can't say that I like Arizona's chances, especially with what looks to be a tough schedule. I'm going to say that the Cardinals take a pretty big step back and finish 5-11.
Next up will be the teams that finished second in the AFC and NFC South divisions, so that means tomorrow will be a look at the Titans and the Falcons.
San Diego Chargers
This is a team that seems to be constantly failing to meet expectations. The core has remained mostly the same, with mainstays like Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates headlining the roster, as well as Norv Turner leading the team as the head coach. However, this used to be a team that at least made the playoffs and underperformed. The past two seasons they have underperformed and failed to even make the playoffs. There have been calls for Norv Turner to be fired and for this team to be overhauled for quite some time now, and one more season without a playoff appearance might be enough to make that actually happen.
Non-divisional opponents: Tennessee, Atlanta, New Orleans, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Carolina, NY Jets
The offense was very good in San Diego last season. Philip Rivers is a very good quarterback that often times gets overlooked for a number of reasons, but he led the Chargers to the 6th ranked passing attack in the NFL, as well as the 5th best offense in terms of points per game. Ryan Mathews has done a good job in replacing future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson, but injuries have been a bit of a problem for him. The rushing attack still ranked 16th last year, which is acceptable for a team that was so good in the passing game. The defense was the weak spot here though, as the Chargers were 22nd in the league in scoring defense, and 20th in the league in stopping the run.
The Chargers suffered some big personnel losses over the offseason, but they did do a pretty nice job of trying to make up for some of those losses through both free agency and the draft.
As I said, Philip Rivers is an often overlooked quarterback, although he struggled a bit last season and made a few very costly mistakes that really hurt this team. He actually threw four interceptions that were run back for touchdowns last year, so things like that only make matters worse when you not only turn the ball over, but let opposing defenses score as well. Rivers is tough in terms of both his play and his mindset though, so I would be surprised if he didn't put together a better year than in 2011.
Ryan Mathews returns as the starting running back, and he can be a top-flight back when healthy. His health can be a concern a lot though, and Mathews already suffered a broken collarbone this offseason. It happened long enough ago that he could be back for the start of the season, but he may miss the opener. He won't be out long after that, if he is indeed out for Week 1, but with injuries already cropping up, the Chargers still need to be aware that he may not be in there for all 16 games. The Chargers brought in Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle to lighten the load on Mathews, and both of them have starting experience and would be able to provide some insurance in relief of Mathews, but Mathews will need to stay healthy for the Chargers offense to be at full strength.
San Diego also added LeRon McClain at the fullback position, and he can also carry the ball in short yardage situations. Hopefully for San Diego's sake, this depth will allow everyone to stay healthy throughout the year.
The biggest loss that the Chargers suffered was at the wide receiver, as Vincent Jackson left for Tampa Bay. Jackson developed into one of the game's best receivers while in San Diego, and he will be missed. To help replace Jackson, the Chargers brought in Robert Meacham and Eddie Royal, both of whom can be solid receivers, although neither are as good as Jackson. San Diego also has Malcolm Floyd, who has been developing into a good wideout. The team took a hit when Vincent Brown went down with an injury, and he will likely miss the majority of the season. Although the Chargers don't have a true number one receiver, they do have some solid threats on the outside.
The Chargers will also greatly benefit from the return of Rivers' favorite target, tight end Antonio Gates, to full health. Gates is not far away from a time when he was unquestionably the best tight end in the game, but injuries have caused him to miss games during the past few years. Gates is supposedly as healthy as he has been in a long time coming into 2012, and a good year from him will help make up for the loss of Jackson. If Gates can stay healthy all year, Mathews can stay healthy and continue to be a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield, and the receiving corps can combine to help lessen the blow of Jackson's departure, Rivers will still have a lot of targets to throw the ball to.
San Diego took a few big hits on the offensive line over the offseason, as Kris Dielman and Marcus McNeill are both gone. Both of them played big roles in protecting Rivers, and their losses will be tough to make up for. Center Nick Hardwick is the best of the bunch up front, and he actually allowed zero sacks and was penalized only once all of last season. The Chargers will need a similar season from their leader on the line, as well as some improvement from his surrounding linemen.
Takeo Spikes and Donald Butler in the middle, as well as the addition of Jarret Johnson to provide depth makes the linebacking corps a good one.
Up front, the best player is Corey Luiget, and the Chargers also added defensive end Kendall Reyes in the second round of the draft and they hope he can provide an immediate impact. In order to free the linebackers to make plays, the defensive linemen need to perform well.
Quentin Jammer is the top corner, and Antoine Cason is serviceable on the opposite side, but the best player on this defense is free safety Eric Weddle. Weddle tied for the NFL lead in interceptions last year, made the Pro Bowl, and is one of the best in the business at his position. His playmaking ability can cover up for a few of the deficiencies of the players around him, and the Chargers will need him to thrive again this year to protect the back end of this defense.
The special teams is above-average, as Nate Kaeding is a good kicker, although he is coming off a season-ending injury. Mike Scifres is an excellent punter. The returners are plentiful. None of them are truly special, but the Chargers have a lot of options to choose from to return kicks and punts, so they should be strong in this area.
The schedule is pretty tough, as the Chargers will get five teams that made the playoffs out of their ten non-divisional games. The Chiefs will be a team that will probably improve this year, and Denver will definitely be the favorite to win the division, so this will be no cakewalk for San Diego. A stretch of consecutive games against Denver, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh in Weeks 11-14 could define the season.
Best-case scenario: Everyone stays healthy, the offseason acquisitions are able to make up for the loss of some key players, the youngsters on defense step up, and San Diego wins the AFC West.
Worst-case scenario: The offense is plagued by injuries again, some of the players on defense begin to show their age and the others underperform, the Chargers finish last in the division, and a complete overhaul of the team and front office takes place at the end of the season.
Realistic prediction: I would expect the reality to be somewhat closer to the worst-case scenario here. The division around the Chargers is getting tougher, and the Chargers are slowly declining. The team finished 8-8 last year, and I think that 8-8 is a realistic expectation for this year as well.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals 2011 season was a tale of two halves. The team opened the year 1-6, but played well enough to finish second in a very weak division with a record of 8-8. The Cardinals won four overtime games, although counting on overtime wins is not exactly a tried and true recipe for success. While the strong finish left the team feeling better by the end of the year, there are still a lot of questions to be answered, and the biggest and most important question is at the quarterback position.
Non-divisional opponents: New England, Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, Minnesota, Green Bay, Atlanta, NY Jets, Detroit, Chicago
The numbers from last year do not paint a very pretty picture of the 2011 Cardinals. The offense was no better than 17th in the league in any major category, and the defense was no better than 16th. The Cardinals were pretty much a reflection of those numbers: below-average across the board. There are a few bright spots, but there remain more questions than answers.
As I said, the biggest question mark here is behind center. The Cardinals brought in Kevin Kolb and paid him a lot of money with the hope that he could become a franchise quarterback, and he has not come close to meeting those expectations. Arizona gave John Skelton a chance to start at the end of the season, and because his insertion coincided with the late season success of the team, Skelton has earned himself a shot to start the 2012 season behind center for the Cardinals. Now Skelton is far from a proven commodity, but the team and the fans have obviously been enormously disappointed by the play of Kolb, and this is a team that is probably only mediocre at best, so I think giving Skelton a shot to start is the correct decision.
One positive sign in 2011 was a very good year from running back Beanie Wells. Wells had been plagued by injuries throughout the early part of his career, but he put together a very good season in 2011, rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns. Wells will need to stay healthy again this year and put up similar numbers in order for the offense to be successful. The backup is Ryan Williams, and he has the potential to be a good number two option, but he has had health problems as well.
For all of the questions in Arizona, there is one thing that can be counted on, and that is Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is arguably the best wide receiver in the league. No matter the coverage, Fitzgerald can be extremely productive, and his presence alone makes Skelton better. The Cardinals also made an interesting addition in the draft, selecting wide receiver Michael Floyd from Notre Dame. The team hopes that Floyd can step in and provide a good number two option. A good rookie season from Floyd will help everyone on offense. Todd Heap is the tight end, although he is past his prime and is no longer close to the threat he was during his tenure in Baltimore.
The offensive line is a serious concern. None of the starters are standouts, and Skelton will have problems if the line is unable to protect him. Arizona used three draft picks on offensive linemen who might possibly have the potential to start, but until they prove anything on the field, the line will remain the weakest part of this team.
The defense is respectable but nothing spectacular. Calais Campbell has become the top pass rusher on the team, and he teams with Darnell Dockett to form a good pass rushing duo up front. The linebacking corps is nothing special. Arizona is pretty strong on the outside with O'Brien Schofield and young Sam Acho, who is probably the best linebacker on the team. This is a team that runs a 3-4 that actually gets more of a pass rush from its linemen though and not its linebackers.
The secondary is pretty good, and the group is led by strong safety Adrian Wilson, who has been a mainstay in the Cardinals organization for many years. Patrick Peterson is the young star at cornerback, and he has a ton of upside. Not only does he have the potential to become a good cover corner, but he is also extremely dangerous when he gets his hands on the ball.
Peterson also has elite return abilities on special teams, and he is already one of the best punt returners in the game. As the number one cornerback, the Cardinals obviously do not want to get him hurt running back kicks, but he has so much talent to do so that it is impossible to take him out of the punt return spot. He has game-changing abilities and is an elite special teams weapon.
Jay Feely and Dave Zastudil are also serviceable in the kicking game.
A look at the schedule should scare the Cardinals and their fans. The AFC East and NFC North are the divisions on the schedule, plus with games against the Eagles and Falcons, this is a tough schedule with no more than two consecutive games that could be considered "easy" on paper.
Best-case scenario: Skelton steps in and thrives as the starter, the team can avoid injuries and get good seasons from its rookies, the other youngsters continue to improve, and the Cardinals finish second in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Skelton is exposed as teams get to see more of him and he proves to be unworthy of a starting spot, Fitzgerald is the only legitimate threat on offense, the defense is unable to stop teams from outscoring a bad offense, and the Cardinals fight with the Rams to stay out of last place in the division.
Realistic prediction: A lot went right for the Cardinals last night to even get them to 8-8, and with an unproven quarterback in there for a full season, I can't say that I like Arizona's chances, especially with what looks to be a tough schedule. I'm going to say that the Cardinals take a pretty big step back and finish 5-11.
Next up will be the teams that finished second in the AFC and NFC South divisions, so that means tomorrow will be a look at the Titans and the Falcons.
Monday, August 20, 2012
Mike Golic vs Rick Reilly
Last week, Rick Reilly wrote a column about the Notre Dame football program that brought about a controversial and fiery response from former Notre Dame defensive tackle Mike Golic. Reilly wrote about what Notre Dame meant to the college football world, and gave what was pretty much a scathing criticism of not only the school, but also the NCAA for treating Notre Dame in a very different manner than any other college football program in the country. As a graduate of Notre Dame, Golic obviously took offense to Reilly's article, and he lashed out at Reilly on-air on his Mike & Mike radio program. While Golic is completely biased when it comes to this subject, I agreed with him on some points, but I also agreed with Reilly on others.
Let me start off by saying this: I hate Notre Dame. I cannot stand how the university believes that it is above the rest of the college football world. They have been hardly relevant over the past 20 years, but they still promote "Touchdown Jesus" as the greatest monument in the history of sports, and they refuse to join a conference because they can reap the financial benefits of being an independent team. They are like the collegiate version of the Dallas Cowboys. Promoting tradition and past success, while also refusing to acknowledge their present mediocrity (at best). If it weren't for Justin Tuck, I would have zero to like about Notre Dame football.
Reilly seemed to agree with me on this. He reiterated my claims that Notre Dame is in fact irrelevant in the college football world when it comes to on-field performance. They just simply are not any good as a football program anymore. Sure, there are a lot of powerful college programs known for great success that go through periods of mediocrity, but those periods do not last decades like has been the case for Notre Dame. Despite all of these on-field failures, we still are continually inundated with Notre Dame football news and coverage.
Why does this happen? Why should we see so much coverage of a team that, aside from what it did decades ago, is just not any good right now? Why is it a big deal when Notre Dame plays Army? This isn't 1940. Those teams have no relevance in the college football world. I would rather watch the two worst teams in the SEC during any given year play as opposed to most Notre Dame games.
Reilly said the same things, but some of his solutions to these complaints were outlandish. What he basically said was that Notre Dame should voluntarily give up the perks that they are granted by various companies and groups. He said that Notre Dame used to be about doing the "right things" and that, had they continually fielded such a below-average team in the past, they would have admitted that they were getting too much coverage and money and would have refused to take the benefits that they are given. In theory this sounds great, but in reality, come on Rick, do you really believe that the university would do that?
Notre Dame has an exclusive television deal with NBC so all of their games can be nationally broadcast. Reilly said that he thought Notre Dame should do the "right thing" when the current deal between the network and the university expires, and turn down any new deal that they might be offered. Why would Notre Dame ever do that? In fact, why would any university ever do that? If a television network came to any school, any cast of actors, any family of people, anyone, anywhere, and offered to pay them in order to promote and broadcast their games/lives/shows, it would be asinine to turn that down, and that is where I agree with Golic.
If it were not for Notre Dame's exclusive television contract (the only university in the country that has an exclusive deal with any national network for an entire season's worth of games), it would be likely that most Notre Dame games would not be televised anywhere outside the state of Indiana. Despite the fact that Notre Dame is not a good football team, they still play on national television every Saturday. Since Notre Dame is only mediocre at best, it even makes it more of a reason for the university to continue to accept any TV deals that NBC might offer them. The university isn't making money going to BCS bowls because of its on-field performance, so why not make up for that by taking money that is offered to them by a national network? I don't care what any university might say hypothetically, but the fact remains that if any other school were given the same offer, they would sign the contract in a second.
Next, Reilly said that Notre Dame should do the "right thing" and relinquish its spot on the BCS bowl committee. Because of the fact that Notre Dame is an independent, it gets it own seat on the BCS committee along with the commissioners of the other BCS conferences. This seems grossly unfair, and it is just that. Why should Notre Dame have an equal say in decisions that the BCS committee makes? The best conference in the nation right now, the SEC, has the same stake in these decisions that one, mediocre team has. It is almost a foregone conclusion that the BCS championship this season will include at least on team from the SEC. Last year, both teams in the championship game were representatives of the SEC. Notre Dame? They lost in the Champs Sports Bowl.
Why in the world should NotreGolic. Notre Dame isn't forcing its way on to this committee and imposing its word upon the rest of the members, they are being invited into the room despite the fact that they were nowhere close to a BCS bowl last season. Once again I ask, would any other school turn this offer down? And once again, the answer is a resounding no.
Reilly is correct here in terms of reality on the football field. Notre Dame is just not very good. If this were any other college football program in the country putting up these repeatedly average seasons, there would be absolutely no chance that they would receive the perks that Notre Dame receives. However, based upon reality in 2012, Golic is correct. If Notre Dame keeps getting these opportunities, why in the world would they turn them down? As long as the university keeps getting these lucrative offers, no one should blame them for continuing to accept them.
As is the case many times in the sports world, we forget that it is still a business. Collegiate sports are obviously a different kind of business than professional sports, but there is still a business aspect to the games. Notre Dame is doing what is best for its university, and any other school in the country would love to get the perks and financial benefits that Notre Dame gets from its football program.
Until NBC stops offering to pay Notre Dame to broadcast its games and until the NCAA puts it foot down and stops giving the school all of these financial advantages, Notre Dame would be idiotic to turn down any and all offers they get that would benefit their university. The problem with that is, there are still people watching these games, and the NCAA still feels as though the school deserves to have its say, despite the fact that the football team just isn't very good. I try to make it a point to avoid Notre Dame broadcasts on NBC at all costs, but its obvious that there aren't many people like me.
If you are out there though, and you do agree that Notre Dame should stop getting all of these unwarranted perks, then do the same thing. Down with mediocre football programs living off of their distant pasts!
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Coming off a sweep of the Astros in Houston, its back home for the next 10 games in what could honestly decide how our season will end. Four with the Marlins, and then three with both the Padres and the Reds. At 4.5 games behind in the division race and 41 games left to play, there is no more time for ups and downs, we need to win consistently. The Giants and Dodgers begin a series tonight so the good news is that one of them will definitely lose. The bad news is one of them will definitely win. No matter, we just need to win our games first.
Jason Kubel hit a first-inning home run to make it 1-0, and that's how we stand in the bottom of the second inning. Let's Go DBacks!
Daily Giants Update: This past weekend featured a game that included the defending Super Bowl champions, the team that is mentioned on pretty much every radio talk show that talks about the NFL, the team that ESPN has followed non-stop throughout training camp, and the team with the most talked-about quarterback duo in the NFL. One team won. The other team scored three points. You can all figure out the teams that those categories describe.
Talk is cheap. Play the game. 16 days until the season opener!
Let me start off by saying this: I hate Notre Dame. I cannot stand how the university believes that it is above the rest of the college football world. They have been hardly relevant over the past 20 years, but they still promote "Touchdown Jesus" as the greatest monument in the history of sports, and they refuse to join a conference because they can reap the financial benefits of being an independent team. They are like the collegiate version of the Dallas Cowboys. Promoting tradition and past success, while also refusing to acknowledge their present mediocrity (at best). If it weren't for Justin Tuck, I would have zero to like about Notre Dame football.
Reilly seemed to agree with me on this. He reiterated my claims that Notre Dame is in fact irrelevant in the college football world when it comes to on-field performance. They just simply are not any good as a football program anymore. Sure, there are a lot of powerful college programs known for great success that go through periods of mediocrity, but those periods do not last decades like has been the case for Notre Dame. Despite all of these on-field failures, we still are continually inundated with Notre Dame football news and coverage.
Why does this happen? Why should we see so much coverage of a team that, aside from what it did decades ago, is just not any good right now? Why is it a big deal when Notre Dame plays Army? This isn't 1940. Those teams have no relevance in the college football world. I would rather watch the two worst teams in the SEC during any given year play as opposed to most Notre Dame games.
Reilly said the same things, but some of his solutions to these complaints were outlandish. What he basically said was that Notre Dame should voluntarily give up the perks that they are granted by various companies and groups. He said that Notre Dame used to be about doing the "right things" and that, had they continually fielded such a below-average team in the past, they would have admitted that they were getting too much coverage and money and would have refused to take the benefits that they are given. In theory this sounds great, but in reality, come on Rick, do you really believe that the university would do that?
Notre Dame has an exclusive television deal with NBC so all of their games can be nationally broadcast. Reilly said that he thought Notre Dame should do the "right thing" when the current deal between the network and the university expires, and turn down any new deal that they might be offered. Why would Notre Dame ever do that? In fact, why would any university ever do that? If a television network came to any school, any cast of actors, any family of people, anyone, anywhere, and offered to pay them in order to promote and broadcast their games/lives/shows, it would be asinine to turn that down, and that is where I agree with Golic.
If it were not for Notre Dame's exclusive television contract (the only university in the country that has an exclusive deal with any national network for an entire season's worth of games), it would be likely that most Notre Dame games would not be televised anywhere outside the state of Indiana. Despite the fact that Notre Dame is not a good football team, they still play on national television every Saturday. Since Notre Dame is only mediocre at best, it even makes it more of a reason for the university to continue to accept any TV deals that NBC might offer them. The university isn't making money going to BCS bowls because of its on-field performance, so why not make up for that by taking money that is offered to them by a national network? I don't care what any university might say hypothetically, but the fact remains that if any other school were given the same offer, they would sign the contract in a second.
Next, Reilly said that Notre Dame should do the "right thing" and relinquish its spot on the BCS bowl committee. Because of the fact that Notre Dame is an independent, it gets it own seat on the BCS committee along with the commissioners of the other BCS conferences. This seems grossly unfair, and it is just that. Why should Notre Dame have an equal say in decisions that the BCS committee makes? The best conference in the nation right now, the SEC, has the same stake in these decisions that one, mediocre team has. It is almost a foregone conclusion that the BCS championship this season will include at least on team from the SEC. Last year, both teams in the championship game were representatives of the SEC. Notre Dame? They lost in the Champs Sports Bowl.
Why in the world should NotreGolic. Notre Dame isn't forcing its way on to this committee and imposing its word upon the rest of the members, they are being invited into the room despite the fact that they were nowhere close to a BCS bowl last season. Once again I ask, would any other school turn this offer down? And once again, the answer is a resounding no.
Reilly is correct here in terms of reality on the football field. Notre Dame is just not very good. If this were any other college football program in the country putting up these repeatedly average seasons, there would be absolutely no chance that they would receive the perks that Notre Dame receives. However, based upon reality in 2012, Golic is correct. If Notre Dame keeps getting these opportunities, why in the world would they turn them down? As long as the university keeps getting these lucrative offers, no one should blame them for continuing to accept them.
As is the case many times in the sports world, we forget that it is still a business. Collegiate sports are obviously a different kind of business than professional sports, but there is still a business aspect to the games. Notre Dame is doing what is best for its university, and any other school in the country would love to get the perks and financial benefits that Notre Dame gets from its football program.
Until NBC stops offering to pay Notre Dame to broadcast its games and until the NCAA puts it foot down and stops giving the school all of these financial advantages, Notre Dame would be idiotic to turn down any and all offers they get that would benefit their university. The problem with that is, there are still people watching these games, and the NCAA still feels as though the school deserves to have its say, despite the fact that the football team just isn't very good. I try to make it a point to avoid Notre Dame broadcasts on NBC at all costs, but its obvious that there aren't many people like me.
If you are out there though, and you do agree that Notre Dame should stop getting all of these unwarranted perks, then do the same thing. Down with mediocre football programs living off of their distant pasts!
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Coming off a sweep of the Astros in Houston, its back home for the next 10 games in what could honestly decide how our season will end. Four with the Marlins, and then three with both the Padres and the Reds. At 4.5 games behind in the division race and 41 games left to play, there is no more time for ups and downs, we need to win consistently. The Giants and Dodgers begin a series tonight so the good news is that one of them will definitely lose. The bad news is one of them will definitely win. No matter, we just need to win our games first.
Jason Kubel hit a first-inning home run to make it 1-0, and that's how we stand in the bottom of the second inning. Let's Go DBacks!
Daily Giants Update: This past weekend featured a game that included the defending Super Bowl champions, the team that is mentioned on pretty much every radio talk show that talks about the NFL, the team that ESPN has followed non-stop throughout training camp, and the team with the most talked-about quarterback duo in the NFL. One team won. The other team scored three points. You can all figure out the teams that those categories describe.
Talk is cheap. Play the game. 16 days until the season opener!
2012 NFL Preview: Part Eight
With the preseason now in full swing, the smell of football is truly in the air. We are starting to get a sense of how teams might look when the regular season begins in just over two weeks. Part seven of my preview will look at the teams that finished third in the AFC East and NFC East, meaning we will get a closer look at the Dolphins and the Eagles. I'll start in Miami.
Miami Dolphins
By the end of the 2011 season, it seemed as though the Dolphins were beginning to head in the right direction. They finished the season with a record of 6-3 in their final nine games. Two of those losses came by a combined 4 points against Dallas and New England. Even though head coach Tony Sparano was inevitably going to be fired at the end of the season, the Dolphins played hard all the way through Week 17.
The organization did fire Sparano at the end of the season, and they replaced him with former Packers assistant Joe Philbin, who brought Mike Sherman with him to Miami to be the offensive coordinator. The offense was the weaker part of the team for the majority of last year, and the Dolphins hope that this new staff will be able to install a system that will allow the Dolphins to score more points and take some pressure off of the defense.
Non-divisional opponents: Houston, Oakland, Arizona, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville
A look at the numbers from last year shows exactly why an offensive minded head coach was brought in to replace Sparano. The Dolphins were no better than 20th in scoring, total yards, and passing yards. The running game was the bright spot, as Reggie Bush had a very good year, and the Dolphins had the 11th ranked rushing attack in the NFL.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami featured a very stout run defense (3rd in the NFL), as well as the 6th ranked defense in terms of points per game allowed. The weak link of the defense was the secondary, and the Dolphins didn't do a lot to improve in that area over the offseason.
At this point, the biggest question mark for Miami's offense is at the quarterback position. Chad Henne and Matt Moore were the starters last year, and neither of them were particularly impressive in that role. Moore led the team at the end of the year when they played much better, but he fumbled 14 times, and really is more of a backup than a full-time starter. Henne was let go in the offseason and replaced by former Jaguar David Garrard. Garrard is nothing more than a mediocre starter, although still an upgrade over Moore and Henne.
The man that the Dolphins hope can step up at this position is first round pick Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is a former wide receiver who only recently became a quarterback, but made the transition and flourished at Texas A&M. His stock skyrocketed, and he is now the quarterback of the future for the Dolphins and their new staff. As has been the case with many rookie quarterbacks in the past few years, the Dolphins officially announced that Tannehill will be the starter in Week 1. Much of the success of this offense will depend upon how well Tannehill can play. We will get a look at Tannehill right off the bat, and if he is able to succeed, then the Dolphins will have high hopes for their future.
Tannehill will be aided by a relatively strong backfield. Reggie Bush had a true shot to be a number one back in 2011, and he took advantage of the opportunity, coming up with a 1,000 yard season, while also continuing to provide a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield. Daniel Thomas is a respectable number two back, and Charles Clay is a very underrated fullback who can provide some offense as well.
The running game will need to be good, because the real weakness of this offense is the receiving corps. The team suffered an enormous loss when Brandon Marshall went to Chicago. Marshall is a top ten receiver and he will be sorely missed, especially by a team with a rookie quarterback. The Dolphins now will look to Brian Hartline to be their number one threat and Davone Bess to be the starter on the other side. Hartline can be a respectable number two wideout, and Bess can be good as the third option, but both of these guys are playing in positions in which they will probably not be able to flourish. Anthony Fasano is a good tight end, and his presence will probably help Tannehill a lot. Right now though, it seems like the loss of Marshall will really hurt what was already a below-average passing game.
What is usually referred to as the biggest aide in helping a young quarterback succeed is the presence of a tackle that can protect the blind side, and Miami is definitely set as far as the left tackle spot goes. Like fellow rookie Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, Tannehill is not surrounded by a ton of talent in terms of scoring threats around him, but he is without question surrounded by one of the best left tackles in the game in Jake Long. Long will be an immensely important part of Tannehill's success, as well as the success of the entire offense all year long. Tannehill also has a standout center to help him in Mike Pouncey, and the rest of the line is pretty solid as well. If second round pick Jonathan Martin can step in as the starting right tackle, this line can be very good. Tannehill
The front seven on the defensive side of the ball was very good last year, and we should see much of the same in 2012. Paul Soliai is a very good tackle who can be a force in stopping the run, as the Dolphins third best rush defense in the league in 2011 shows. Koa Misi and Karlos Dansby are also above-average linebackers, and Cameron Wake is an excellent pass rusher coming from his outside linebacker spot.
The front four is stout against the run, and can definitely get after opposing quarterbacks. The problem in 2011 was when the quarterbacks actually had time to throw, the secondary could not stop opposing receivers. Vontae Davis is a good cornerback, but Sean Smith has yet to meet expectations on the other side. The loss of safety Yeremiah Bell also surely does not help matters. Miami added Richard Marshall and Tyrell Johnson, but on paper this secondary group looks weaker than it did last year, and for what was already the 25th ranked pass defense, that is not a good thing.
The special teams in Miami is a strength. Davone Bess and Clyde Gates can be good returners, and Brandon Fields is a very good punter. If the return game of the Dolphins can provide the team with good field position consistently, it will really help lighten the load on an offense that is not exactly explosive.
The schedule provides a bit of hope, as the Dolphins will get to play the NFC West and the AFC South, two of the weaker divisions in the league. Four of their final five games are against the Patriots (twice), the 49ers, and the Bills though, so I think a strong finish like the one they had in 2011 is out of the question in 2012.
Best-case scenario: Tannehill flourishes right from the start, Bush shows that he can be a true workhorse back and runs for over 1,000 yards again, the receiving corps steps up enough to help the offense, the front seven on defense can both stop the run as well as rush the quarterback, the secondary steps up to match the production of the rest of the defense around them, and the Dolphins finish second in the division.
Worst-case scenario: The lack of any sort of receiving threat hurts Tannehill's development, Bush wears down and is unable to match his 2011 production, the secondary can't stop anyone again, and the Dolphins finish last in the division.
Realistic prediction: The Dolphins have some good pieces on their roster, but it is going to be really tough for a rookie quarterback to develop when he will be thrown into the fire with hardly anything around him in terms of receiving threats on the outside. Despite the strong finish to last season, the Dolphins did start 0-7, and that cannot be overlooked. The defense can be good enough to keep Miami in most games, but I just cannot see this being anything more than a below-average offense. I am going to say that Miami finishes 5-11.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had extremely high expectations going into the 2011 season. They had made multiple offseason acquisitions, and it was Super Bowl or bust in Philadelphia. The problem with all of the preseason hype was that it overshadowed some serious weak spots on the team, and they showed up in a big way as the Eagles started the season at 4-8. However, the team did finally seem to find a rhythm in the final month of the season, and they finished 8-8. The beginning of the year was very bad, but the strong finish provided the Eagles with the hope that they can turn that into a full season of success.
Non-divisional opponents: Cleveland, Baltimore, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati
The numbers from last year actually match what the preseason expectations were. The Eagles were in the top ten in the league in every major offensive category, as well as pass defense, total yards allowed, and scoring defense. The weakest part of the team was the rushing defense, but even that was a respectable 16th in the league. So with numbers like that, what exactly went wrong? First off, turnovers killed the Eagles. It seemed as though every time the Eagles turned the ball over, it was when they were in scoring positions, and these mistakes at inopportune times really hurt.
Philadelphia also blew multiple fourth quarter leads, which was another sign of a team that is guaranteed to be unsuccessful. The strong finish of the Eagles did also inflate the numbers somewhat, but the inability to protect both the ball and the lead was what really did the Eagles in.
The first thing that you have to mention when talking about the offense of the Eagles is its explosiveness. Michael Vick has the ability to take over games with both his legs and his arm, and often times with a combination of both. LeSean McCoy is extremely quick and elusive, especially when he is able to get the ball in space on draw plays and screen passes. On the outside, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin also provide serious threats, and even Riley Cooper and Jason Avant are above-average complementary receivers. Brent Celek provides even more of a threat at the tight end position, as he has developed into an above-average receiving threat. The combination of all of these weapons makes the Eagles offense potentially one of the most dangerous in all of football.
The one enormous question when it comes to this offense is how the team will adjust to the loss of left tackle Jason Peters, who will miss the entire season with a ruptured achilles tendon. Peters was one of the best offensive linemen in the league, and his loss, combined with Vick's style of play in which he is constantly on the move, could be a big problem. Philadelphia brought in Demetress Bell to replace Peters, but he is nowhere near as good as Peters, and in a division full of great pass rushers, Vick could be in a lot of trouble behind a seriously weakened offensive line.
The defense was the part of the team that really proved to be the downfall in 2011. The Eagles were gashed in the running game for the first half of the season, and the play of the defense really mirrored the record of the team as a whole. They improved at the end of the year, and the Eagles hope that can be the case going into 2012.
Many of the offseason moves that the Eagles made to address those defensive concerns show that the team is committed to having a defense that can be one of the best in the league. The front seven got a number of upgrades through both the draft and free agency. A defensive line that was already good got even better with the addition of defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and defensive end Vinny Curry in the draft. Curry adds depth to a pass rush that already featured two excellent ends in Trent Cole and Jason Babin, and the Eagles hope that Cox can help plug the holes in the middle of the line so the defense can get better against the run.
The biggest move of the offseason was the addition of middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Ryans was acquired from the Texans, and he has the potential to be a Pro Bowler this season. The team also drafted outside linebacker Mychal Kendricks from Cal, and with an improved line, these two could be able to make a lot of tackles.
The secondary lost cornerback Asante Samuel, but still have Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to man the outside. Both Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie had down years in 2011, due to a number of factors. The team hopes that both can bounce back, because the Eagles will be seeing a lot of very good receivers all season. The safeties are only average, so that will put even more pressure on Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie to be able to lock down opposing receivers.
Like the offense, the return game of the Eagles has the potential to be explosive. Dion Lewis will get a lot of chances to return both punts and kicks, and he is an above-average returner. There is also always the threat of DeSean Jackson running back punts for touchdowns at any given time. He is not the full-time punt returner since the Eagles need him to stay healthy enough to be their number one receiver on offense, but he still gets enough chances to change games with his return abilities.
The problem for the Eagles is the same problem for everyone else in the NFC East this year: the schedule. After what should be a win in Week 1 against Cleveland, the Eagles face a murderer's row, as seven of their next eight games are against the Ravens, Giants, Steelers, Lions, Falcons, Saints, and Cowboys. The schedule gets a bit easier after that, but the NFC East is still going to come down to how each team fares in head-to-head matchups since the non-divisional schedule is so tough.
Best-case scenario: Vick is able to stay healthy for the entire year despite the absence of his best offensive lineman, McCoy and the receivers are unstoppable as a unit, the defense is able to make a significant jump and be consistent all year, and the Eagles win the Super Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: Vick can't stay healthy again, the team desperately misses Peters and the entire offense suffers, the play of the defense doesn't match the names on the back of the jerseys, the team finishes third again, and serious questions arise as to whether or not Andy Reid's tenure in Philadelphia will come to an end before 2013.
Realistic prediction: I am inclined to say 11-5 here, but what happened last season still has to be a concern. The schedule is extremely tough, and Michael Vick still has yet to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season, so there will be little room for error if Vick misses time. As usual in the NFC East though, this will all come down to how each team fares head-to-head. I'm going to say 10-6 with a berth in the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins
By the end of the 2011 season, it seemed as though the Dolphins were beginning to head in the right direction. They finished the season with a record of 6-3 in their final nine games. Two of those losses came by a combined 4 points against Dallas and New England. Even though head coach Tony Sparano was inevitably going to be fired at the end of the season, the Dolphins played hard all the way through Week 17.
The organization did fire Sparano at the end of the season, and they replaced him with former Packers assistant Joe Philbin, who brought Mike Sherman with him to Miami to be the offensive coordinator. The offense was the weaker part of the team for the majority of last year, and the Dolphins hope that this new staff will be able to install a system that will allow the Dolphins to score more points and take some pressure off of the defense.
Non-divisional opponents: Houston, Oakland, Arizona, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville
A look at the numbers from last year shows exactly why an offensive minded head coach was brought in to replace Sparano. The Dolphins were no better than 20th in scoring, total yards, and passing yards. The running game was the bright spot, as Reggie Bush had a very good year, and the Dolphins had the 11th ranked rushing attack in the NFL.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami featured a very stout run defense (3rd in the NFL), as well as the 6th ranked defense in terms of points per game allowed. The weak link of the defense was the secondary, and the Dolphins didn't do a lot to improve in that area over the offseason.
At this point, the biggest question mark for Miami's offense is at the quarterback position. Chad Henne and Matt Moore were the starters last year, and neither of them were particularly impressive in that role. Moore led the team at the end of the year when they played much better, but he fumbled 14 times, and really is more of a backup than a full-time starter. Henne was let go in the offseason and replaced by former Jaguar David Garrard. Garrard is nothing more than a mediocre starter, although still an upgrade over Moore and Henne.
The man that the Dolphins hope can step up at this position is first round pick Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is a former wide receiver who only recently became a quarterback, but made the transition and flourished at Texas A&M. His stock skyrocketed, and he is now the quarterback of the future for the Dolphins and their new staff. As has been the case with many rookie quarterbacks in the past few years, the Dolphins officially announced that Tannehill will be the starter in Week 1. Much of the success of this offense will depend upon how well Tannehill can play. We will get a look at Tannehill right off the bat, and if he is able to succeed, then the Dolphins will have high hopes for their future.
Tannehill will be aided by a relatively strong backfield. Reggie Bush had a true shot to be a number one back in 2011, and he took advantage of the opportunity, coming up with a 1,000 yard season, while also continuing to provide a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield. Daniel Thomas is a respectable number two back, and Charles Clay is a very underrated fullback who can provide some offense as well.
The running game will need to be good, because the real weakness of this offense is the receiving corps. The team suffered an enormous loss when Brandon Marshall went to Chicago. Marshall is a top ten receiver and he will be sorely missed, especially by a team with a rookie quarterback. The Dolphins now will look to Brian Hartline to be their number one threat and Davone Bess to be the starter on the other side. Hartline can be a respectable number two wideout, and Bess can be good as the third option, but both of these guys are playing in positions in which they will probably not be able to flourish. Anthony Fasano is a good tight end, and his presence will probably help Tannehill a lot. Right now though, it seems like the loss of Marshall will really hurt what was already a below-average passing game.
What is usually referred to as the biggest aide in helping a young quarterback succeed is the presence of a tackle that can protect the blind side, and Miami is definitely set as far as the left tackle spot goes. Like fellow rookie Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, Tannehill is not surrounded by a ton of talent in terms of scoring threats around him, but he is without question surrounded by one of the best left tackles in the game in Jake Long. Long will be an immensely important part of Tannehill's success, as well as the success of the entire offense all year long. Tannehill also has a standout center to help him in Mike Pouncey, and the rest of the line is pretty solid as well. If second round pick Jonathan Martin can step in as the starting right tackle, this line can be very good. Tannehill
The front seven on the defensive side of the ball was very good last year, and we should see much of the same in 2012. Paul Soliai is a very good tackle who can be a force in stopping the run, as the Dolphins third best rush defense in the league in 2011 shows. Koa Misi and Karlos Dansby are also above-average linebackers, and Cameron Wake is an excellent pass rusher coming from his outside linebacker spot.
The front four is stout against the run, and can definitely get after opposing quarterbacks. The problem in 2011 was when the quarterbacks actually had time to throw, the secondary could not stop opposing receivers. Vontae Davis is a good cornerback, but Sean Smith has yet to meet expectations on the other side. The loss of safety Yeremiah Bell also surely does not help matters. Miami added Richard Marshall and Tyrell Johnson, but on paper this secondary group looks weaker than it did last year, and for what was already the 25th ranked pass defense, that is not a good thing.
The special teams in Miami is a strength. Davone Bess and Clyde Gates can be good returners, and Brandon Fields is a very good punter. If the return game of the Dolphins can provide the team with good field position consistently, it will really help lighten the load on an offense that is not exactly explosive.
The schedule provides a bit of hope, as the Dolphins will get to play the NFC West and the AFC South, two of the weaker divisions in the league. Four of their final five games are against the Patriots (twice), the 49ers, and the Bills though, so I think a strong finish like the one they had in 2011 is out of the question in 2012.
Best-case scenario: Tannehill flourishes right from the start, Bush shows that he can be a true workhorse back and runs for over 1,000 yards again, the receiving corps steps up enough to help the offense, the front seven on defense can both stop the run as well as rush the quarterback, the secondary steps up to match the production of the rest of the defense around them, and the Dolphins finish second in the division.
Worst-case scenario: The lack of any sort of receiving threat hurts Tannehill's development, Bush wears down and is unable to match his 2011 production, the secondary can't stop anyone again, and the Dolphins finish last in the division.
Realistic prediction: The Dolphins have some good pieces on their roster, but it is going to be really tough for a rookie quarterback to develop when he will be thrown into the fire with hardly anything around him in terms of receiving threats on the outside. Despite the strong finish to last season, the Dolphins did start 0-7, and that cannot be overlooked. The defense can be good enough to keep Miami in most games, but I just cannot see this being anything more than a below-average offense. I am going to say that Miami finishes 5-11.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had extremely high expectations going into the 2011 season. They had made multiple offseason acquisitions, and it was Super Bowl or bust in Philadelphia. The problem with all of the preseason hype was that it overshadowed some serious weak spots on the team, and they showed up in a big way as the Eagles started the season at 4-8. However, the team did finally seem to find a rhythm in the final month of the season, and they finished 8-8. The beginning of the year was very bad, but the strong finish provided the Eagles with the hope that they can turn that into a full season of success.
Non-divisional opponents: Cleveland, Baltimore, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati
The numbers from last year actually match what the preseason expectations were. The Eagles were in the top ten in the league in every major offensive category, as well as pass defense, total yards allowed, and scoring defense. The weakest part of the team was the rushing defense, but even that was a respectable 16th in the league. So with numbers like that, what exactly went wrong? First off, turnovers killed the Eagles. It seemed as though every time the Eagles turned the ball over, it was when they were in scoring positions, and these mistakes at inopportune times really hurt.
Philadelphia also blew multiple fourth quarter leads, which was another sign of a team that is guaranteed to be unsuccessful. The strong finish of the Eagles did also inflate the numbers somewhat, but the inability to protect both the ball and the lead was what really did the Eagles in.
The first thing that you have to mention when talking about the offense of the Eagles is its explosiveness. Michael Vick has the ability to take over games with both his legs and his arm, and often times with a combination of both. LeSean McCoy is extremely quick and elusive, especially when he is able to get the ball in space on draw plays and screen passes. On the outside, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin also provide serious threats, and even Riley Cooper and Jason Avant are above-average complementary receivers. Brent Celek provides even more of a threat at the tight end position, as he has developed into an above-average receiving threat. The combination of all of these weapons makes the Eagles offense potentially one of the most dangerous in all of football.
The one enormous question when it comes to this offense is how the team will adjust to the loss of left tackle Jason Peters, who will miss the entire season with a ruptured achilles tendon. Peters was one of the best offensive linemen in the league, and his loss, combined with Vick's style of play in which he is constantly on the move, could be a big problem. Philadelphia brought in Demetress Bell to replace Peters, but he is nowhere near as good as Peters, and in a division full of great pass rushers, Vick could be in a lot of trouble behind a seriously weakened offensive line.
The defense was the part of the team that really proved to be the downfall in 2011. The Eagles were gashed in the running game for the first half of the season, and the play of the defense really mirrored the record of the team as a whole. They improved at the end of the year, and the Eagles hope that can be the case going into 2012.
Many of the offseason moves that the Eagles made to address those defensive concerns show that the team is committed to having a defense that can be one of the best in the league. The front seven got a number of upgrades through both the draft and free agency. A defensive line that was already good got even better with the addition of defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and defensive end Vinny Curry in the draft. Curry adds depth to a pass rush that already featured two excellent ends in Trent Cole and Jason Babin, and the Eagles hope that Cox can help plug the holes in the middle of the line so the defense can get better against the run.
The biggest move of the offseason was the addition of middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Ryans was acquired from the Texans, and he has the potential to be a Pro Bowler this season. The team also drafted outside linebacker Mychal Kendricks from Cal, and with an improved line, these two could be able to make a lot of tackles.
The secondary lost cornerback Asante Samuel, but still have Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to man the outside. Both Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie had down years in 2011, due to a number of factors. The team hopes that both can bounce back, because the Eagles will be seeing a lot of very good receivers all season. The safeties are only average, so that will put even more pressure on Asomugha and Rodgers-Cromartie to be able to lock down opposing receivers.
Like the offense, the return game of the Eagles has the potential to be explosive. Dion Lewis will get a lot of chances to return both punts and kicks, and he is an above-average returner. There is also always the threat of DeSean Jackson running back punts for touchdowns at any given time. He is not the full-time punt returner since the Eagles need him to stay healthy enough to be their number one receiver on offense, but he still gets enough chances to change games with his return abilities.
The problem for the Eagles is the same problem for everyone else in the NFC East this year: the schedule. After what should be a win in Week 1 against Cleveland, the Eagles face a murderer's row, as seven of their next eight games are against the Ravens, Giants, Steelers, Lions, Falcons, Saints, and Cowboys. The schedule gets a bit easier after that, but the NFC East is still going to come down to how each team fares in head-to-head matchups since the non-divisional schedule is so tough.
Best-case scenario: Vick is able to stay healthy for the entire year despite the absence of his best offensive lineman, McCoy and the receivers are unstoppable as a unit, the defense is able to make a significant jump and be consistent all year, and the Eagles win the Super Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: Vick can't stay healthy again, the team desperately misses Peters and the entire offense suffers, the play of the defense doesn't match the names on the back of the jerseys, the team finishes third again, and serious questions arise as to whether or not Andy Reid's tenure in Philadelphia will come to an end before 2013.
Realistic prediction: I am inclined to say 11-5 here, but what happened last season still has to be a concern. The schedule is extremely tough, and Michael Vick still has yet to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season, so there will be little room for error if Vick misses time. As usual in the NFC East though, this will all come down to how each team fares head-to-head. I'm going to say 10-6 with a berth in the playoffs.
Thursday, August 16, 2012
NFL Preview: Part Seven
I am a bit behind schedule as far as this preview goes, so I am going to try to play catch-up today. There are also a few subjects that have come up in the past few days that I would like to talk about as well (Stephen Strasburg's innings limit and Mike Golic vs Rick Reilly on Notre Dame football), so today will be a busy day here, and I'll try to get in as much as possible. So stay tuned because a lot is coming!
First off is the next part of my 2012 NFL preview. After writing about mostly mediocre and bad teams, today I'll look at some teams that I think have a good shot at playoff contention. Right now, we are up to the teams that finished in third place in the AFC North and the NFC North. Both of these divisions were tough last year, and they will be again this year, so the third place teams will still be good teams. I'll be talking about the Bengals and the Bears here, and we start off in Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Bengals
2011 was the year of the quarterback, and although Cam Newton was the most talked about rookie at that position, it was Andy Dalton that led his team to the postseason in his first year in the league. Dalton did not put up the numbers that Newton did, and does not play with the same flashy and exciting style, but he got the job done at TCU in college, and he got the job done last season, as he led the Bengals to the playoffs. They lost in Houston and seemed intimidated by the moment, but the simple fact that they were there bodes well for the future.
Non-divisional games: Washington, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, NY Giants, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia
The statistics from last year show a team that was a bit below-average on the offensive side of the ball, but very solid in terms of defense. The offense ranked between 18th and 20th in total yards, scoring, rushing, and passing. While these are definitely not overwhelming numbers, they at least show that the Bengals were consistent and not one-dimensional. The offense was also helped by the fact that the defense was ranked in the top ten in the league in those same categories. So while the Bengals were not a threat to score 30+ points every week, there were not many weeks that they needed to, thanks to a solid defense.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals did lose their starting running back, Cedric Benson, to free agency. Benson was a good runner who stayed healthy and could be counted on by the team. To replace him, they brought in Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis from the Patriots. Green-Ellis is a downgrade here, as he is not the same threat that Benson was, although he is still an above-average back. Bernard Scott is also available, and he has proven that he can produce as a number two option in the backfield. Losing Benson hurts though, and I think that it will put more pressure on Dalton to grow into a better passer in his second year.
What will help Dalton a great deal in improving as a passer is the presence of second year wideout A.J. Green. Green, like Dalton, was a rookie last season, and he seems like he will be a legitimate number one receiver for years to come, and it seems like he was definitely worth the high draft pick that the Bengals spent on him prior to last season. Jermaine Gresham is also a very good tight end, and he seemed to work well with Dalton as well in 2011, and he will be counted on to produce a similar season in 2012. Cincinnati drafted Mohamed Sanu in the third round this year, and they will need him to produce in order to give the Bengals a legitimate third threat in the air and take some pressure off of Dalton.
Left tackle Andrew Whitworth is probably the best player on what is a pretty solid offensive line. Having a player like Whitworth to protect the blindside of a young quarterback really helps. Offensive guard Kevin Zeitler was drafted in the first round out of Wisconsin, a school that is known for producing a lot of good offensive linemen. The line will need to be good this year as they block for a running back that is not as good as the one they had last season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals do not really have many big name stars, but they performed very well as a unit in 2011. The strength of the group is probably in the middle of the line, as Domata Peko and Geno Atkins are somewhat unknown, but are both very good players. The secondary is also pretty good, and the addition of top pick Dre Kirkpatrick could give the Bengals a good chance to prevent teams from putting up a lot of passing yards against them. If they can get good years from guys like Robert Geathers and Manny Lawson in terms of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, this defense can remain one of the top ten in the league. Cincinnati also drafted Devon Still out of Penn State to add even more depth to a strong defensive line.
The special teams unit is solid, as they have established players all around in Kevin Huber, Mike Nugent, and Brandon Tate.
Best-case scenario: The Bengals come flying out of the gate, Dalton continues to improve, Green becomes a legitimate superstar at wide receiver, Green-Ellis has a big year, the defense not only remains solid but gets better and is able to force more turnovers, and the Bengals surpass either Pittsburgh or Baltimore and make the playoffs.
Worst-case scenario: Dalton suffers a sophomore slump, Green gets little support from the targets around him and is blanketed constantly, the loss of Benson puts even more pressure on Dalton that he cannot handle, the defense takes a step back, and the Bengals finish below .500 due to a tough division and tough schedule.
Realistic prediction: I still do not think that the Bengals are better than the Ravens or Steelers. They went a combined 0-4 against Baltimore and Pittsburgh last year, and really looked flustered in their playoff game against the Texans. They have some nice young players, and a quarterback-wide receiver duo that could be very good for years to come, but I think making the playoffs again is unrealistic. I'm going to say 7-9.
Chicago Bears
This is a team that will be very interesting this year. The Bears seemed to be headed for playoff contention in 2011, but Jay Cutler got hurt, the team went 1-5 in its final six games, and they finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. If Cutler had stayed healthy, a playoff berth would have definitely been within reach, but I'm not sure they could have played more than one game once they got to the postseason.
For the past few years, the Bears offense has been centered around Matt Forte. Jay Cutler is a good quarterback, but he never had any legitimate threats to throw the ball to. That all changed this offseason though, as the Bears made a big splash by bringing in Brandon Marshall to be Cutler's number one target. With Cutler, Forte, and Marshall combining to form what has the potential to be a very good threesome, there are high hopes in Bears country going into 2012.
Non-divisional opponents: Indianapolis, St. Louis, Dallas, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tennessee, Houston, San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona
One look at the numbers from last year and you can see exactly what the Bears were all about. They could run the ball, and they could stop the run. However, they could not throw the ball, and they could not stop the pass. Chicago's biggest problem for the past few years has been protecting Jay Cutler. Cutler has taken a constant beating behind a bad offensive line, and when this was paired with a lack of any kind of outside threats (their best pass catcher was their running back), it makes for a bad passing game. The fact that Mike Martz was calling the plays sure did not help matters either, as he constantly called passes that required the line to give Cutler a lot of time to throw, and that just didn't happen. The addition of Marshall and the new offensive scheme of Mike Tice will likely to combine to lessen the burden on Cutler, and the Bears hope that it can lead to a spot in the postseason.
As I said before, the three stars of this offense are Cutler, Forte, and Marshall. Cutler is a good NFL quarterback, Forte is one of the best (some would say, the best) all-around running back in the league, and Marshall is a legitimate number one receiving threat. The Bears also added wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey in the draft, and if he can turn into a good number two wideout, the Bears passing game will instantly be a lot better.
The success of the offense still hinges on the five guys up front though. Tice's new system will call for a lot of shorter dropbacks for Cutler, and will not emphasize so many plays that require Cutler to be given a lot of time. No matter the playcaller, the line will need to get better or else the Bears still will not be able to prevent guys like Jared Allen, Clay Matthews, and Ndamukong Suh from punishing Cutler again this season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears are led by future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher and one of the best defensive ends in the NFL, Julius Peppers. The Bears made an intriguing pick in the first round, taking defensive end Shea McClellin from Boise State to play opposite Peppers. If he can develop into a good defensive end, the Bears will be able to put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and in a division in which they will have to keep up with the high-powered offenses in Green Bay and Detroit, that is something that you need to be able to do.
The secondary was the weakness of Chicago's defense last year, and they really didn't do much to replace any of the personnel in that area. Granted, playing against Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford twice last year would cause any secondary to struggle, but the Bears were 28th in defending the pass last season, and they allowed the Seahawks to score 38 points against them at the end of last year, and the 2011 Seahawks were about as far from an aerial juggernaut as you can get. If McClellin can become another legitimate pass rusher to play opposite Peppers, it will cut down on the opportunities that other teams have to throw against their secondary, but they will still need improvement from this group if they want to be a legitimate contender.
Lastly, it would be impossible to talk about the Bears without mentioning their special teams star, Devin Hester. Hester is arguably the best return man in the history of the NFL, and now that he will be able to play a more complementary role on offense instead of having to be a standout wide receiver, I think he will be able to have a great year returning kicks. He ran two punts back for touchdowns last season and averaged a league-best 16.2 yards per punt return, and I would expect nothing less in 2012. He is the definition of a game-changer on special teams, and opposing teams will be holding their collective breaths every time he gets his hands on the ball.
Robbie Gould and Adam Podlesh are also very good at their respective kicker and punter positions, as they are accustomed to kicking in what can often times be sloppy conditions at Soldier Field. This is an elite special teams unit.
Those who believe that this can be a special year in Chicago should only be more encouraged by looking at the schedule. The Bears get to face the NFC West and AFC South, and that means they could go at least 6-2 in those games. They only get back-to-back games that look tough on paper once all year (Houston and then San Francisco in Weeks 10 and 11), so the Bears should be able to avoid any extended losing streaks like they had at the end of last season. This schedule does nothing but help the outlook for the 2012 Bears.
Best-case scenario: Cutler, Forte, and Marshall come together to form the best QB-RB-WR group in the NFL, the offensive line can prevent Cutler from getting pummeled, McClellin turns into an instant threat and teams with Peppers to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks, Hester has a career year as the returner, and the Bears win the Super Bowl (yes, win the Super Bowl).
Worst-case scenario: The offensive line stinks again, Forte and/or Cutler gets hurt, Marshall doesn't get the ball enough and his bad attitude rears its ugly head, teams are able to throw the ball all over the field against the defense, and the Bears finish third in the division and miss the playoffs.
Realistic prediction: The best-case and worst-case scenarios here are wildly different from one another. There is a lot to like about this team, but there are also some holes that could prove too costly to overcome. Barring any injuries, I think this is a playoff team. The division they play in is tough, but I can see this team going 10-6 and at least winning one playoff game.
First off is the next part of my 2012 NFL preview. After writing about mostly mediocre and bad teams, today I'll look at some teams that I think have a good shot at playoff contention. Right now, we are up to the teams that finished in third place in the AFC North and the NFC North. Both of these divisions were tough last year, and they will be again this year, so the third place teams will still be good teams. I'll be talking about the Bengals and the Bears here, and we start off in Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Bengals
2011 was the year of the quarterback, and although Cam Newton was the most talked about rookie at that position, it was Andy Dalton that led his team to the postseason in his first year in the league. Dalton did not put up the numbers that Newton did, and does not play with the same flashy and exciting style, but he got the job done at TCU in college, and he got the job done last season, as he led the Bengals to the playoffs. They lost in Houston and seemed intimidated by the moment, but the simple fact that they were there bodes well for the future.
Non-divisional games: Washington, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, NY Giants, Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia
The statistics from last year show a team that was a bit below-average on the offensive side of the ball, but very solid in terms of defense. The offense ranked between 18th and 20th in total yards, scoring, rushing, and passing. While these are definitely not overwhelming numbers, they at least show that the Bengals were consistent and not one-dimensional. The offense was also helped by the fact that the defense was ranked in the top ten in the league in those same categories. So while the Bengals were not a threat to score 30+ points every week, there were not many weeks that they needed to, thanks to a solid defense.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals did lose their starting running back, Cedric Benson, to free agency. Benson was a good runner who stayed healthy and could be counted on by the team. To replace him, they brought in Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis from the Patriots. Green-Ellis is a downgrade here, as he is not the same threat that Benson was, although he is still an above-average back. Bernard Scott is also available, and he has proven that he can produce as a number two option in the backfield. Losing Benson hurts though, and I think that it will put more pressure on Dalton to grow into a better passer in his second year.
What will help Dalton a great deal in improving as a passer is the presence of second year wideout A.J. Green. Green, like Dalton, was a rookie last season, and he seems like he will be a legitimate number one receiver for years to come, and it seems like he was definitely worth the high draft pick that the Bengals spent on him prior to last season. Jermaine Gresham is also a very good tight end, and he seemed to work well with Dalton as well in 2011, and he will be counted on to produce a similar season in 2012. Cincinnati drafted Mohamed Sanu in the third round this year, and they will need him to produce in order to give the Bengals a legitimate third threat in the air and take some pressure off of Dalton.
Left tackle Andrew Whitworth is probably the best player on what is a pretty solid offensive line. Having a player like Whitworth to protect the blindside of a young quarterback really helps. Offensive guard Kevin Zeitler was drafted in the first round out of Wisconsin, a school that is known for producing a lot of good offensive linemen. The line will need to be good this year as they block for a running back that is not as good as the one they had last season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals do not really have many big name stars, but they performed very well as a unit in 2011. The strength of the group is probably in the middle of the line, as Domata Peko and Geno Atkins are somewhat unknown, but are both very good players. The secondary is also pretty good, and the addition of top pick Dre Kirkpatrick could give the Bengals a good chance to prevent teams from putting up a lot of passing yards against them. If they can get good years from guys like Robert Geathers and Manny Lawson in terms of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, this defense can remain one of the top ten in the league. Cincinnati also drafted Devon Still out of Penn State to add even more depth to a strong defensive line.
The special teams unit is solid, as they have established players all around in Kevin Huber, Mike Nugent, and Brandon Tate.
Best-case scenario: The Bengals come flying out of the gate, Dalton continues to improve, Green becomes a legitimate superstar at wide receiver, Green-Ellis has a big year, the defense not only remains solid but gets better and is able to force more turnovers, and the Bengals surpass either Pittsburgh or Baltimore and make the playoffs.
Worst-case scenario: Dalton suffers a sophomore slump, Green gets little support from the targets around him and is blanketed constantly, the loss of Benson puts even more pressure on Dalton that he cannot handle, the defense takes a step back, and the Bengals finish below .500 due to a tough division and tough schedule.
Realistic prediction: I still do not think that the Bengals are better than the Ravens or Steelers. They went a combined 0-4 against Baltimore and Pittsburgh last year, and really looked flustered in their playoff game against the Texans. They have some nice young players, and a quarterback-wide receiver duo that could be very good for years to come, but I think making the playoffs again is unrealistic. I'm going to say 7-9.
Chicago Bears
This is a team that will be very interesting this year. The Bears seemed to be headed for playoff contention in 2011, but Jay Cutler got hurt, the team went 1-5 in its final six games, and they finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. If Cutler had stayed healthy, a playoff berth would have definitely been within reach, but I'm not sure they could have played more than one game once they got to the postseason.
For the past few years, the Bears offense has been centered around Matt Forte. Jay Cutler is a good quarterback, but he never had any legitimate threats to throw the ball to. That all changed this offseason though, as the Bears made a big splash by bringing in Brandon Marshall to be Cutler's number one target. With Cutler, Forte, and Marshall combining to form what has the potential to be a very good threesome, there are high hopes in Bears country going into 2012.
Non-divisional opponents: Indianapolis, St. Louis, Dallas, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tennessee, Houston, San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona
One look at the numbers from last year and you can see exactly what the Bears were all about. They could run the ball, and they could stop the run. However, they could not throw the ball, and they could not stop the pass. Chicago's biggest problem for the past few years has been protecting Jay Cutler. Cutler has taken a constant beating behind a bad offensive line, and when this was paired with a lack of any kind of outside threats (their best pass catcher was their running back), it makes for a bad passing game. The fact that Mike Martz was calling the plays sure did not help matters either, as he constantly called passes that required the line to give Cutler a lot of time to throw, and that just didn't happen. The addition of Marshall and the new offensive scheme of Mike Tice will likely to combine to lessen the burden on Cutler, and the Bears hope that it can lead to a spot in the postseason.
As I said before, the three stars of this offense are Cutler, Forte, and Marshall. Cutler is a good NFL quarterback, Forte is one of the best (some would say, the best) all-around running back in the league, and Marshall is a legitimate number one receiving threat. The Bears also added wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey in the draft, and if he can turn into a good number two wideout, the Bears passing game will instantly be a lot better.
The success of the offense still hinges on the five guys up front though. Tice's new system will call for a lot of shorter dropbacks for Cutler, and will not emphasize so many plays that require Cutler to be given a lot of time. No matter the playcaller, the line will need to get better or else the Bears still will not be able to prevent guys like Jared Allen, Clay Matthews, and Ndamukong Suh from punishing Cutler again this season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears are led by future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher and one of the best defensive ends in the NFL, Julius Peppers. The Bears made an intriguing pick in the first round, taking defensive end Shea McClellin from Boise State to play opposite Peppers. If he can develop into a good defensive end, the Bears will be able to put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and in a division in which they will have to keep up with the high-powered offenses in Green Bay and Detroit, that is something that you need to be able to do.
The secondary was the weakness of Chicago's defense last year, and they really didn't do much to replace any of the personnel in that area. Granted, playing against Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford twice last year would cause any secondary to struggle, but the Bears were 28th in defending the pass last season, and they allowed the Seahawks to score 38 points against them at the end of last year, and the 2011 Seahawks were about as far from an aerial juggernaut as you can get. If McClellin can become another legitimate pass rusher to play opposite Peppers, it will cut down on the opportunities that other teams have to throw against their secondary, but they will still need improvement from this group if they want to be a legitimate contender.
Lastly, it would be impossible to talk about the Bears without mentioning their special teams star, Devin Hester. Hester is arguably the best return man in the history of the NFL, and now that he will be able to play a more complementary role on offense instead of having to be a standout wide receiver, I think he will be able to have a great year returning kicks. He ran two punts back for touchdowns last season and averaged a league-best 16.2 yards per punt return, and I would expect nothing less in 2012. He is the definition of a game-changer on special teams, and opposing teams will be holding their collective breaths every time he gets his hands on the ball.
Robbie Gould and Adam Podlesh are also very good at their respective kicker and punter positions, as they are accustomed to kicking in what can often times be sloppy conditions at Soldier Field. This is an elite special teams unit.
Those who believe that this can be a special year in Chicago should only be more encouraged by looking at the schedule. The Bears get to face the NFC West and AFC South, and that means they could go at least 6-2 in those games. They only get back-to-back games that look tough on paper once all year (Houston and then San Francisco in Weeks 10 and 11), so the Bears should be able to avoid any extended losing streaks like they had at the end of last season. This schedule does nothing but help the outlook for the 2012 Bears.
Best-case scenario: Cutler, Forte, and Marshall come together to form the best QB-RB-WR group in the NFL, the offensive line can prevent Cutler from getting pummeled, McClellin turns into an instant threat and teams with Peppers to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks, Hester has a career year as the returner, and the Bears win the Super Bowl (yes, win the Super Bowl).
Worst-case scenario: The offensive line stinks again, Forte and/or Cutler gets hurt, Marshall doesn't get the ball enough and his bad attitude rears its ugly head, teams are able to throw the ball all over the field against the defense, and the Bears finish third in the division and miss the playoffs.
Realistic prediction: The best-case and worst-case scenarios here are wildly different from one another. There is a lot to like about this team, but there are also some holes that could prove too costly to overcome. Barring any injuries, I think this is a playoff team. The division they play in is tough, but I can see this team going 10-6 and at least winning one playoff game.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
2012 NFL Preview: Day Six
The next two teams on my 32 team list will be the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers. Both of these teams threw rookie quarterbacks straight into the fire last season. One surpassed any reasonable expectations, and the other was not very good. As both of them enter their second year leading their teams, a lot of the success or failure of these franchises will rest squarely on the shoulders of these two players. First up will be a look at the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville Jaguars
After three seasons of mediocrity (at best), the Jaguars found themselves in familiar territory last season, as they finished with a record of 5-11. After trading up to draft Blaine Gabbert in 2011, the Jaguars took a lot of heat as the season went on and Gabbert struggled. He completed just over 50% of his passes and fumbled an alarming 14 times. Jacksonville brought in a new coach in Mike Mularkey, who has been a successful offensive coordinator, and will be counted on to help develop Gabbert into something that will justify the first round pick that the team spent on him.
Non-divisional games: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Chicago, Oakland, Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami, New England
The numbers from last season pretty much paint an obvious picture of what the Jaguars team looked like. The Jags were dead last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards, but 12th in rushing yards. This was due, pretty much entirely, to the NFL's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. Despite the incompetence of Jacksonville's passing game, Jones-Drew was still able to thrive with almost no help around him. As of today though, Jones-Drew is holding out in search of a new contract. It is still expected that he and the team will get a deal worked out before the beginning of the regular season, but if that doesn't happen, then the Jaguars have little chance to mount any type of offense.
The defense last season in Jacksonville was very good, as the team ranked no worse than 11th in scoring, passing, rushing, and total yards. However, with an offense that was as bad as Jacksonville's last season, it didn't much matter and the Jags finished with a record of 5-11.
As I said before, the success of this offense hinges on two people: Maurice Jones-Drew and Blaine Gabbert. It is almost a given that Jones-Drew will again put up great numbers, and despite his small size he is still one of the best running backs in the NFL. The big question is Gabbert though. If he struggles like he did in 2011, the Jaguars will once again be a one dimensional team that will be unable to score a lot of points.
Jacksonville did all they could to help provide some support for Gabbert in the offseason, drafting clearly the best receiver available in Justin Blackmon, and adding Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans in free agency. Blackmon has the potential to be a star for years to come, and if Gabbert can improve and find him on a regular basis, then the Jaguars' passing game has a real chance to get better. Robinson and Evans are nice complementary pieces as well, and Mike Thomas gives the Jags four receivers that can be pretty good. Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller are also above-average tight ends. With this group of players, Gabbert has more talent around him than he has ever had in his football career, and if he is unable to succeed this season, then it will bring about serious questions as to whether he will ever be able to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. On the offensive line, the Jaguars obviously have at least some talent, as teams knew that Jones-Drew would be getting the ball a lot last year and he still managed a great season. While this was more due to Jones-Drew than the line, the offensive line deserves at least some of the credit here.
Switching to the defensive side of the ball, as the stats from last year demonstrate, the Jags are pretty good across the board. The defensive line contains some guys like Tyson Alualu and Jeremy Mincey who are solid, if unspectacular, players. Paul Posluszny and Daryl Smith lead a group of linebackers that is in the same class as the line, and the secondary is pretty much the same. The team added Aaron Ross to provide depth at the cornerback position over the offseason, and this will do nothing but help the Jags.
The one real problem here is the lack of much of a pass rush. Jacksonville drafted defensive end Andre Branch in the second round with the hope that he could provide some kind of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but there is not a lot else to get excited about in terms of getting after the quarterback, and this could hurt the Jaguars as they will face Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady this season. All three quarterbacks will be able to throw for a lot of yards if the Jags cannot get pressure on them.
The special teams unit is average, with Josh Scobee being a solid, mainstay kicker in Jacksonville for years now, and Mike Thomas providing a lot of skill as a returner. The team drafted punter Bryan Anger from Cal in the third round. That is somewhat high for a punter, and Anger will need to become a force on special teams in order to live up to his draft status.
Taking a look at the schedule, we see a pretty tough slate, as the Jags will face all of the members of the NFC North and the AFC East. However, they have no stretches of more than two consecutive games that would be considered too tough, and aside from the Texans, the division they play in is below average. If Gabbert can improve, then an improvement in terms of won-loss record is definitely possible.
Best-case scenario: Gabbert shows a lot of improvement in his first full year as the starter, Jones-Drew leads the league in rushing again, the defense is able to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the Jags finish second in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Gabbert struggles and too much of the offensive load is placed upon the shoulders of Jones-Drew, who wears down due to a high workload over the past few seasons, off-field problems crop up with Blackmon, the defense is unable to mount any sort of pass rush, and the Jaguars have a embarrassing last place finish in what is arguably the worst division in the NFL.
Realistic prediction: With the way Gabbert played last season, it is tough to say that he will be stellar, but he should improve at least somewhat. Jones-Drew is a legitimate stud, but I think the workload he has carried over the past few seasons may be a bit of a cause for concern, because running backs take a punishment every time they touch the ball. Defensively, the Jags are pretty good, but with an offense that may struggle to consistently put points on the board, I'm going to say that they end the year with a record of 6-10.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were at the center of one of the best stories of the NFL season, as number one overall pick Cam Newton burst onto the scene with one of the best rookie seasons that any quarterback has ever had. After finishing 2-14 in 2010, the Panthers improved to 6-10 thanks in large part to the energy that Newton injected into the team, and further improvement will be expected in 2012 after Newton gets a full offseason of work with the team.
Non-divisional games: NY Giants, Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, Washington, Denver, Philadelphia, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland
The numbers from last season demonstrate just how big of an impact Newton had, as the team ranked no worse than 7th in terms of scoring, passing, rushing, and total yards. Newton's ability to affect the game with both his arm and his legs played a huge part in the success that Carolina had on the offensive side of the ball.
The defense, however, was quite a different story. Just as the offense was successful across the board, the defense was abysmal across the board, ranking no better than 24th in the NFL in every major defensive category. The Panthers defense was hurt by some serious injuries to a few of their top players, but they were nonetheless bad from top to bottom.
Looking at the offense of the Panthers, it all begins at the quarterback position with Newton. He injected a ton of life into the offense from the minute he stepped onto the field with his ability to throw, as well as his ability to not only run the ball, but score touchdowns on the run, as he had 14 rushing touchdowns, an extremely high number for a quarterback. He set an extremely high standard though, and it might be too much to ask to expect the kind of magical rookie season that he had, although he does have the talent to get better, and it seems like the sky might be the limit as far as how good he can end up being.
Aside from Newton's ability to run the ball, the Panthers also have a tandem of very good backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and they signed Mike Tolbert in the offseason. Williams and Stewart can combine to form an excellent duo, and Tolbert is big and has a knack for scoring touchdowns when he gets the ball in goal-line situations.
The receiving corps is led by Steve Smith, who really looked re-invigorated by the presence of Newton. Before last season, it seemed like Smith might be nearing the downside of his career, but he turned in a great 2011 season, and he will be expected to match that production in 2012. What makes Smith's game even more important is the fact that aside from tight end Greg Olsen, there is not much else in terms of dangerous threats on the outside. Brandon LaFell and David Gettis are nothing more than average at best, and fourth round pick Joe Adams is explosive, but will probably play a bigger role in the kick return game than as a wide receiver during his rookie year. In order for the running game to be as effective as it has the potential to be, the Panthers must be able to put some kind of pressure on opposing secondaries, and a breakout year by one of the younger receivers would really help in making that happen.
The offensive line is above average, and they are led by center Ryan Kalil and left tackle Jordan Gross, both of whom are near the top of the league in terms of their respective positions. Offensive guard Amini Silatolu was drafted in the second round, and he could add more talent to a line that is already good.
As the numbers showed, the biggest problem with the Panthers last year was their defense. The leader in the middle of the defense is Jon Beason, and he was sorely missed last year after he went out for the season. Fellow linebacker Thomas Davis was also lost for the year, and the absence of these two played a big part in Carolina's defensive struggles. With the return of both of them, as well as the addition of top draft pick Luke Kuechly, the Panthers linebacking corps has the potential to be very good.
The defensive line, however, is only average at best, and the group will not exactly strike fear into opposing quarterbacks. Chris Gamble is a very solid cornerback, and the Panthers hope that Sherrod Martin can turn in a good year at the safety position. Aside from those two, the Panthers did not add a ton in the offseason and it may be tough for the team to improve upon the 24th ranked pass defense in 2011.
On special teams, the Panthers have Olindo Mare as the kicker and rookie Brad Nortman as the punter. Fourth round pick Joe Adams has the potential to bring some explosiveness to the return game.
Taking a look at the schedule this year, we see six games against teams that made the playoffs last year, as well as games against the Chargers, Eagles, Bears, and Cowboys. That makes it 10 games that look pretty tough on paper. The fact that the Panthers play in a division with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints doesn't make things any easier.
Best-case scenario: Newton's stock continues to rise as he avoids a sophomore slump and only gets better, the running game remains one of the best in the league, Smith gets some help from the other receivers, and the return of the defense to full health allows the Panthers to get near the .500 mark and stay within shouting distance of second place in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Newton is unable to meet the lofty expectations that will be placed upon his shoulders due to his outstanding rookie year, Smith begins to decline and is also unable to match his numbers from last season, opposing defenses can crowd the line of scrimmage to stop the run as the Panthers have little in the way of a passing game, the defense is again plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness, and the Panthers finish last in the division.
Realistic prediction: Although I think Newton has the ability to be a very good quarterback, I think it is unfair to expect him to match his outstanding rookie season, although I might be wrong about that. The running game is very good, but there are definite questions about the passing game and the defense. With an easier schedule, I think the Panthers would have a chance to improve upon their 2011 record, but as for a prediction, I am going to say they tie Tampa Bay in the division at 6-10.
That's it for part six of my team-by-team preview of the 2012 season. Tomorrow will be a look at the third place teams in the AFC and NFC North divisions, and that means we will take a look at the Cincinnati Bengals and the Chicago Bears.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: I am still not seeing enough improvement to warrant my belief that this is a playoff team. For every good game we play, it seems to be followed by a disappointing game. Right now we are facing a 3-0 deficit in the 6th inning in St. Louis in a game that has featured a number of missed scoring opportunities, and this has been a theme that has been far too prevelant this season. After tonight, we face the Cardinals for two more, and then go through a stretch of 10 games against the Astros, Marlins, and Padres; all teams near the bottom of the National League. If we can get on some kind of hot streak in the next two weeks, it is pretty much entirely games against divisional opponents from there until the end of the year. Some kind of spark is needed, and it is needed soon.
Daily Giants Update: The first preseason game ended in a 32-31 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the final score doesn't mean much in any preseason game, although the ability to put up a lot of points is nice to see. Hakeem Nicks is due back within the next few days after injuring his foot, so we should be at closer to full strength when we face the Jets this Saturday in preseason game number two.
Jacksonville Jaguars
After three seasons of mediocrity (at best), the Jaguars found themselves in familiar territory last season, as they finished with a record of 5-11. After trading up to draft Blaine Gabbert in 2011, the Jaguars took a lot of heat as the season went on and Gabbert struggled. He completed just over 50% of his passes and fumbled an alarming 14 times. Jacksonville brought in a new coach in Mike Mularkey, who has been a successful offensive coordinator, and will be counted on to help develop Gabbert into something that will justify the first round pick that the team spent on him.
Non-divisional games: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Chicago, Oakland, Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami, New England
The numbers from last season pretty much paint an obvious picture of what the Jaguars team looked like. The Jags were dead last in the NFL in total yards and passing yards, but 12th in rushing yards. This was due, pretty much entirely, to the NFL's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. Despite the incompetence of Jacksonville's passing game, Jones-Drew was still able to thrive with almost no help around him. As of today though, Jones-Drew is holding out in search of a new contract. It is still expected that he and the team will get a deal worked out before the beginning of the regular season, but if that doesn't happen, then the Jaguars have little chance to mount any type of offense.
The defense last season in Jacksonville was very good, as the team ranked no worse than 11th in scoring, passing, rushing, and total yards. However, with an offense that was as bad as Jacksonville's last season, it didn't much matter and the Jags finished with a record of 5-11.
As I said before, the success of this offense hinges on two people: Maurice Jones-Drew and Blaine Gabbert. It is almost a given that Jones-Drew will again put up great numbers, and despite his small size he is still one of the best running backs in the NFL. The big question is Gabbert though. If he struggles like he did in 2011, the Jaguars will once again be a one dimensional team that will be unable to score a lot of points.
Jacksonville did all they could to help provide some support for Gabbert in the offseason, drafting clearly the best receiver available in Justin Blackmon, and adding Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans in free agency. Blackmon has the potential to be a star for years to come, and if Gabbert can improve and find him on a regular basis, then the Jaguars' passing game has a real chance to get better. Robinson and Evans are nice complementary pieces as well, and Mike Thomas gives the Jags four receivers that can be pretty good. Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller are also above-average tight ends. With this group of players, Gabbert has more talent around him than he has ever had in his football career, and if he is unable to succeed this season, then it will bring about serious questions as to whether he will ever be able to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. On the offensive line, the Jaguars obviously have at least some talent, as teams knew that Jones-Drew would be getting the ball a lot last year and he still managed a great season. While this was more due to Jones-Drew than the line, the offensive line deserves at least some of the credit here.
Switching to the defensive side of the ball, as the stats from last year demonstrate, the Jags are pretty good across the board. The defensive line contains some guys like Tyson Alualu and Jeremy Mincey who are solid, if unspectacular, players. Paul Posluszny and Daryl Smith lead a group of linebackers that is in the same class as the line, and the secondary is pretty much the same. The team added Aaron Ross to provide depth at the cornerback position over the offseason, and this will do nothing but help the Jags.
The one real problem here is the lack of much of a pass rush. Jacksonville drafted defensive end Andre Branch in the second round with the hope that he could provide some kind of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but there is not a lot else to get excited about in terms of getting after the quarterback, and this could hurt the Jaguars as they will face Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady this season. All three quarterbacks will be able to throw for a lot of yards if the Jags cannot get pressure on them.
The special teams unit is average, with Josh Scobee being a solid, mainstay kicker in Jacksonville for years now, and Mike Thomas providing a lot of skill as a returner. The team drafted punter Bryan Anger from Cal in the third round. That is somewhat high for a punter, and Anger will need to become a force on special teams in order to live up to his draft status.
Taking a look at the schedule, we see a pretty tough slate, as the Jags will face all of the members of the NFC North and the AFC East. However, they have no stretches of more than two consecutive games that would be considered too tough, and aside from the Texans, the division they play in is below average. If Gabbert can improve, then an improvement in terms of won-loss record is definitely possible.
Best-case scenario: Gabbert shows a lot of improvement in his first full year as the starter, Jones-Drew leads the league in rushing again, the defense is able to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the Jags finish second in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Gabbert struggles and too much of the offensive load is placed upon the shoulders of Jones-Drew, who wears down due to a high workload over the past few seasons, off-field problems crop up with Blackmon, the defense is unable to mount any sort of pass rush, and the Jaguars have a embarrassing last place finish in what is arguably the worst division in the NFL.
Realistic prediction: With the way Gabbert played last season, it is tough to say that he will be stellar, but he should improve at least somewhat. Jones-Drew is a legitimate stud, but I think the workload he has carried over the past few seasons may be a bit of a cause for concern, because running backs take a punishment every time they touch the ball. Defensively, the Jags are pretty good, but with an offense that may struggle to consistently put points on the board, I'm going to say that they end the year with a record of 6-10.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were at the center of one of the best stories of the NFL season, as number one overall pick Cam Newton burst onto the scene with one of the best rookie seasons that any quarterback has ever had. After finishing 2-14 in 2010, the Panthers improved to 6-10 thanks in large part to the energy that Newton injected into the team, and further improvement will be expected in 2012 after Newton gets a full offseason of work with the team.
Non-divisional games: NY Giants, Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, Washington, Denver, Philadelphia, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland
The numbers from last season demonstrate just how big of an impact Newton had, as the team ranked no worse than 7th in terms of scoring, passing, rushing, and total yards. Newton's ability to affect the game with both his arm and his legs played a huge part in the success that Carolina had on the offensive side of the ball.
The defense, however, was quite a different story. Just as the offense was successful across the board, the defense was abysmal across the board, ranking no better than 24th in the NFL in every major defensive category. The Panthers defense was hurt by some serious injuries to a few of their top players, but they were nonetheless bad from top to bottom.
Looking at the offense of the Panthers, it all begins at the quarterback position with Newton. He injected a ton of life into the offense from the minute he stepped onto the field with his ability to throw, as well as his ability to not only run the ball, but score touchdowns on the run, as he had 14 rushing touchdowns, an extremely high number for a quarterback. He set an extremely high standard though, and it might be too much to ask to expect the kind of magical rookie season that he had, although he does have the talent to get better, and it seems like the sky might be the limit as far as how good he can end up being.
Aside from Newton's ability to run the ball, the Panthers also have a tandem of very good backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and they signed Mike Tolbert in the offseason. Williams and Stewart can combine to form an excellent duo, and Tolbert is big and has a knack for scoring touchdowns when he gets the ball in goal-line situations.
The receiving corps is led by Steve Smith, who really looked re-invigorated by the presence of Newton. Before last season, it seemed like Smith might be nearing the downside of his career, but he turned in a great 2011 season, and he will be expected to match that production in 2012. What makes Smith's game even more important is the fact that aside from tight end Greg Olsen, there is not much else in terms of dangerous threats on the outside. Brandon LaFell and David Gettis are nothing more than average at best, and fourth round pick Joe Adams is explosive, but will probably play a bigger role in the kick return game than as a wide receiver during his rookie year. In order for the running game to be as effective as it has the potential to be, the Panthers must be able to put some kind of pressure on opposing secondaries, and a breakout year by one of the younger receivers would really help in making that happen.
The offensive line is above average, and they are led by center Ryan Kalil and left tackle Jordan Gross, both of whom are near the top of the league in terms of their respective positions. Offensive guard Amini Silatolu was drafted in the second round, and he could add more talent to a line that is already good.
As the numbers showed, the biggest problem with the Panthers last year was their defense. The leader in the middle of the defense is Jon Beason, and he was sorely missed last year after he went out for the season. Fellow linebacker Thomas Davis was also lost for the year, and the absence of these two played a big part in Carolina's defensive struggles. With the return of both of them, as well as the addition of top draft pick Luke Kuechly, the Panthers linebacking corps has the potential to be very good.
The defensive line, however, is only average at best, and the group will not exactly strike fear into opposing quarterbacks. Chris Gamble is a very solid cornerback, and the Panthers hope that Sherrod Martin can turn in a good year at the safety position. Aside from those two, the Panthers did not add a ton in the offseason and it may be tough for the team to improve upon the 24th ranked pass defense in 2011.
On special teams, the Panthers have Olindo Mare as the kicker and rookie Brad Nortman as the punter. Fourth round pick Joe Adams has the potential to bring some explosiveness to the return game.
Taking a look at the schedule this year, we see six games against teams that made the playoffs last year, as well as games against the Chargers, Eagles, Bears, and Cowboys. That makes it 10 games that look pretty tough on paper. The fact that the Panthers play in a division with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints doesn't make things any easier.
Best-case scenario: Newton's stock continues to rise as he avoids a sophomore slump and only gets better, the running game remains one of the best in the league, Smith gets some help from the other receivers, and the return of the defense to full health allows the Panthers to get near the .500 mark and stay within shouting distance of second place in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Newton is unable to meet the lofty expectations that will be placed upon his shoulders due to his outstanding rookie year, Smith begins to decline and is also unable to match his numbers from last season, opposing defenses can crowd the line of scrimmage to stop the run as the Panthers have little in the way of a passing game, the defense is again plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness, and the Panthers finish last in the division.
Realistic prediction: Although I think Newton has the ability to be a very good quarterback, I think it is unfair to expect him to match his outstanding rookie season, although I might be wrong about that. The running game is very good, but there are definite questions about the passing game and the defense. With an easier schedule, I think the Panthers would have a chance to improve upon their 2011 record, but as for a prediction, I am going to say they tie Tampa Bay in the division at 6-10.
That's it for part six of my team-by-team preview of the 2012 season. Tomorrow will be a look at the third place teams in the AFC and NFC North divisions, and that means we will take a look at the Cincinnati Bengals and the Chicago Bears.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: I am still not seeing enough improvement to warrant my belief that this is a playoff team. For every good game we play, it seems to be followed by a disappointing game. Right now we are facing a 3-0 deficit in the 6th inning in St. Louis in a game that has featured a number of missed scoring opportunities, and this has been a theme that has been far too prevelant this season. After tonight, we face the Cardinals for two more, and then go through a stretch of 10 games against the Astros, Marlins, and Padres; all teams near the bottom of the National League. If we can get on some kind of hot streak in the next two weeks, it is pretty much entirely games against divisional opponents from there until the end of the year. Some kind of spark is needed, and it is needed soon.
Daily Giants Update: The first preseason game ended in a 32-31 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the final score doesn't mean much in any preseason game, although the ability to put up a lot of points is nice to see. Hakeem Nicks is due back within the next few days after injuring his foot, so we should be at closer to full strength when we face the Jets this Saturday in preseason game number two.
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