There is nothing as good as NFL football, and we are now only a few days away from the start of the regular season. If the NFL is the entrée, we got the appetizer this past weekend as the college football season got fully underway in what was being promoted as the best opening weekend ever. I can't say for sure if it was the best opening weekend ever, but it was pretty damn good, and there were more than a few things that I took away from the past three days.
I love teams scheduling tough games right out of the gate - Gone (for the most part) are the days of powerhouse schools beating up on cupcake opponents to start the season, and I don't know how, as fans, anyone could argue against that. When you look at the schedule for this week, it seems like most of those games have simply been slid into Week 2, but I can deal with that after seeing powerhouse schools battle in games that we don't normally get to see. USC vs Alabama. LSU vs Wisconsin. Florida State vs Ole Miss. Clemson vs Auburn. Georgia vs North Carolina. Notre Dame vs Texas. These are games that for decades we would never get to see in the regular season. Not only do I like this new theme because it gives us the potential for great games, but I also like it because it immediately puts college football in the national spotlight.
Alabama is still really, really good - In one of those non-traditional opening week matchups, Alabama faced USC in a battle of historically great schools. Both teams had high hopes coming into the season, but what we got was a resounding statement win by the Crimson Tide to the tune of 52-6. College football is a game that centers around the coaches more than the players because the players come and go. What Alabama did this past Saturday was provide yet another reason to believe that Nick Saban is the best coach and best recruiter in the entire sport. It doesn't matter who is out there on the field for his team. No matter what, Alabama is so talented that as long as Saban is there, they will be a national title contender.
The playoff field is going to expand to eight sooner rather than later - Not only will this make the end of the season more exciting, but it will give a legitimate chance to the one team that always stands out as the best team that is not a member of the "Power Five" conferences. Houston beat Oklahoma and proved that they were legitimately better than the Sooners, who were considered one of the best teams in the nation. For years, it was always Boise State, but there is always one team from a smaller conference that deserves at least a shot at the big boys at the end of the season. I am not going to overreact after only one game, but I was impressed by Houston on both sides of the ball. I hear a ton of talk already about Houston going undefeated, and if I had to bet money on it right now, I would say that does not happen. There is always a hiccup somewhere that no one sees coming. However, I think there is also always at least one team from a smaller conference at the end of the year that deserves a chance to play for the national title, and I think that means adding four more teams to the playoff format. It might not happen next year, but I think that everyone with the power to make that happen is beginning to see that for the good of the game, the playoffs should expand.
If you want to be a good quarterback, do not even consider going to LSU - This is one thing that I just do not understand. LSU sends boatloads of talented players into the NFL year after year. However, for some reason, none of them are ever quarterbacks. This year, Brandon Harris is the quarterback for the Tigers, and he threw an interception to basically end the game against Wisconsin. Like I said, I am not going to overreact to one game, but Harris did not exactly get off to a good start. What I am going to react to though, is how unbelievable it is that a school with a football program as storied as the program at LSU is continually fails to produce anything close to even an average quarterback.
When you have to go back to 1972 to find the last quarterback out of LSU to have a successful NFL career, you can hardly claim to be a program that develops pro-quality players at that position. The long and far less than prestigious line of LSU quarterbacks to make the NFL after him includes Ryan Perriloux, Zach Mettenberger, Jordan Jefferson, and Matt Flynn.
So at least there has to be one quarterback in recent history that succeeded in college, right? Yes actually, there is. His name? Jamarcus Russell. How did he turn out in the NFL? That's right, only the biggest bust (in my opinion, and the opinion of many others) in the history of the NFL Draft.
I don't understand why LSU just cannot develop top level quarterbacks. This problem has spanned multiple years and multiple coaches (including Nick Saban), but it just does not go away. LSU seems to be very good in multiple facets of the game this year, but once again, the quarterback play just does not seem to be there.
Preseason rankings are useless, but still fun to discuss - Let's face it, for the most part, the preseason rankings in college football are usually based only on the results of the previous season and the history of the program. Tennessee was ranked ninth going into this season and just escaped losing at home to Appalachian State. Oklahoma was ranked third and they were dominated by Houston. LSU was ranked fifth and they lost. Notre Dame, Ole Miss (granted, to a higher ranked Florida State team), and UCLA all lost despite being ranked in the Top 25.
Preseason rankings are great use for discussion early in the year, but since there are no actual preseason games in college football, it takes a few weeks to get a sense of what teams really are the best out there. I understand those that believe preseason rankings should be done away with, but I disagree with that. Like I said, this opening weekend was being hyped as the best ever, and much of that was directly related to the preseason rankings. Once January rolls around, no one is going to be focused on what teams were ranked where before the season began.
More than any other sport, the college football regular season means almost everything - Highly ranked teams that lost this weekend are already facing win or go home situations despite it only being September. Could Oklahoma or USC or LSU survive one loss at the end of the regular season? Yes. But could they survive two? No.
The best part of college basketball is March Madness. All a team has to do is reach the tournament and they have a chance to win the national title. We have seen eight seeds win the title. An eight seed in the NCAA Tournament means that the selection committee considers you somewhere near the 30th best team in the country. So if they get hot at the right time, that means there are a few dozen teams that have a legitimate chance to win the national title. In college football, at the end of the regular season, there are at most, probably six teams that have a shot to win it all.
Any sort of slip goes a long way in deciding whether or not you even have a chance to be considered for the playoff at the end of the season. Therefore, every game counts. Some see that as a gift and some see it as a curse. In my opinion, it is a gift. It means that no team can take any opponent lightly. It means that you have to be ready to play each and every week. If the playoff does eventually expand to eight teams, this may become at least somewhat less of a factor, but as it stands now, every team in the country needs to treat every game as an elimination game, and from the perspective of a fan, I love that.
There are a few other things, I took from this past weekend, but I have gone on a bit longer than I expected so my last point will be this...
THE OVERTIME FORMAT IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BY FAR THE WORST OF ANY FORMAT IN ANY SPORT - I hated it when they installed it, and my hatred only grows more for it every time I see games end in overtime. I am a believer that every game in every sport, be it collegiate or professional, should end just as the game begins. That means no shootouts (in the regular season) in hockey. No penalty kicks in soccer. No second chances for a defense that can't stop another team in the NFL. Do it like baseball and basketball. Keep playing the same game as long as you need to.
I do at least give soccer credit because the game does not immediately go to penalty kicks. I also give credit to hockey because they do play an overtime before the shootout in the regular season. But what hockey does in the postseason brings epic games. If it takes seven overtimes for Keith Primeau or Steve Yzerman to win a game, then give it to us. If we get to see a buzzer beater or a walk-off home run after regulation time ends, then that is what we want to see, even if we have to stay up into the wee hours of the night to watch.
The overtime format in college football is absolutely horrible. It basically starts each team in field goal range before possession even changes. It gives teams equal opportunities to score even though for the entire game actual defensive strategy and field position matters. It turns football scores into basketball scores. It forces teams to go for two in positions that normally would not call for that. Can it be exciting? Yes, it can be. But every time I watch a college football game play into overtime, I am so overwhelmed by how contrived and stupid the format is, it takes away from my enjoyment of what would normally be an exciting and competitive game.
You can expand the playoff to eight teams, you can get rid of the preseason rankings, and you can try to find a quarterback at LSU that actually might be average, but before you do that, please give me a new overtime format in college football, because the current one is absolutely terrible.
I already said before that it seems as though the normally easy games for the top teams have now simply moved to the second week, and that is what we can expect next week. Second ranked Clemson will play Troy. Florida State gets Charleston Southern. Alabama plays Western Kentucky. This Saturday will surely not be as intriguing as last Saturday, but at least last Saturday gave us a great glimpse of what could be to come this season. So for that, football fans across the country should be thankful.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: All of that money for Zack Greinke has not exactly been worth it so far, as he was on the mound serving up home run after home run to the Dodgers in a 10-2 loss.
Daily Giants Update: What makes watching the Diamondbacks easier is the fact that we are only five days away from the Giants opening the season in Dallas. It has been a long time coming, but the time is almost here, and I could not be more excited for some NFL football.
Tuesday, September 6, 2016
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
The last of my NFL Predictions
With the preseason winding down, roster cuts already underway, and the regular season quickly approaching, I want to finish up my predictions. Therefore, if any of them happen to be right, I will now officially have them out for everyone to see. I seriously doubt they will all be right, but even some sort of success would be nice. The final division to preview is the NFC West.
NFC West
For a long time, this was considered one of the weaker divisions in the league, but now it could be argued that two of the top five teams in the NFL are playing here. Seattle has appeared in the playoffs the past four seasons, and two of those appearances resulted in trips to the Super Bowl. They will no doubt be tough again. The Cardinals have made the playoffs two years in a row, and this team is better than both of those teams. It will be a rough and rugged fight at the top of this division.
Seattle Seahawks
A lot of people have Arizona penciled in at the top of this division, but I think the Seahawks will win it. The defense, as usual, is one of the best in the NFL. They have great players at all three levels, and led the NFC in rushing, passing, and scoring defense in 2015. What makes me a believer that this team will win the division is what Russell Wilson showed last year. Over 4,000 yards passing, 34 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. Wilson is no longer just a game manager. He is a team leader and a very good quarterback. With Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham (remember him?) leading the receiving corps, I like the potential that Wilson has to match what he did last year. Losing Marshawn Lynch is tough, but I do think that Thomas Rawls can at least be a serviceable replacement. The great equalizer here is injury. The offensive line is not great, and if Rawls or Wilson go down, Seattle will be in big trouble. Barring that though, this should absolutely be a very good team.
Ceiling: Super Bowl. That is what they should be thinking in Seattle. The defense is one of the best in the NFC, and Wilson has done nothing but get better and better as a quarterback. They are going to be in a dog fight with a very good Arizona Cardinals team at the top of this division, but whoever finishes second should still be playoff bound. Seattle has a chance to be 11-5 or 12-4 and win it all.
Floor: The offensive line and injuries seem to be the only way that this team can be derailed. The depth is not great, so if a star on either side of the ball goes down, they might be in trouble. If the offensive line is unable to block for Rawls, then maybe too much pressure is put on Wilson. While he has definitely been improving, I still don't think he is good enough to put this entire team on his back. Despite that, I still find it hard to believe this team finishing any worse than 8-8.
Reality: I definitely think the ceiling here is more likely than the floor. Wilson was brilliant last season, and they have multiple elite defensive players. If this team is not playing into the Divisional round of the playoffs, I would be very surprised. When the NFC Championship game is played, I expect the Seahawks to be there.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals seemed to have everything going their way in 2015. That was until they faced the Panthers in the NFC Championship game and were blown off the field, losing by 34 points. They will be out to prove that was an anomaly this year, and have a team that is definitely capable of doing some serious damage. Fantasy players are high on running back David Johnson, and I like him, but don't forget about Chris Johnson behind him. At this point in his career, I think Chris Johnson is in the perfect spot. Catch some passes out of the backfield, and get under 10 carries a game. The offense will not be elite, but it can definitely be good enough.
The strength of this team, just like the Seahawks, is the defense. Patrick Peterson is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, and the addition of Chandler Jones is huge. The linebacking corps is not the greatest, but with a very good defensive line and a very good secondary, Arizona can improve on what was already a top defensive unit.
Ceiling: Just like the Seahawks, the Cardinals should be thinking Super Bowl. Arizona has never won a Super Bowl, but I think many people feel that this is their best chance to finally end that drought. I think the best case scenario for Arizona is a first round bye and a berth in the Super Bowl, with a legitimate shot at winning.
Floor: The offensive line is not the greatest, so if that group is unable to pull its weight, it could seriously hinder Arizona's chance to make a deep postseason run. However, I think at worst this is a 9-7 team.
Reality: The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFC. Arizona will play the Patriots right out of the gate, but the best part of that is they will be the only team in the NFC West to play New England when they will be without Tom Brady. The rest of the division will have to face the Patriots after Brady is back from suspension. That is a definite advantage for the Cardinals. Depending on the seeding it may not happen, but we could surely see Arizona and Seattle playing in the NFC Championship game. That would be the first time two teams from the same division played in the conference championship game since 2013.
Los Angeles Rams
First, it is going to take some time to get used to saying Los Angeles Rams again. As far as geography goes, the Rams playing in Los Angeles makes much more sense in a division called the NFC West, but they have played in St. Louis for over two decades, so the first hurdle I will have to face with the Rams is getting used to saying Los Angeles instead of St. Louis.
As far as the team on the field, they have some elite talents in Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald, but they also have multiple weak spots and a rookie quarterback. As of today, it appears that Jared Goff will start the season on the bench, but as the first overall pick in the draft, it is almost a certainty that he will start at some point in 2016. In a division with two elite defenses, plus a matchup with Carolina, Goff is most likely going to see things he never saw in college. Gurley was a workhorse last year, and Los Angeles will rely heavily on him again this year. However, I think it is tough to believe that this team will compete for a spot in the playoffs. The future might be bright, but the future is not 2016.
Ceiling: With a young stud running back and a first overall pick at quarterback, I think the fans in Los Angeles, who have gone over two decades without football, can be somewhat optimistic. I just think that optimism cannot be for the 2016 season. The top of this division is too tough. If the Rams can get to 9-7, they should consider this year a success.
Floor: Los Angeles gets Arizona and Seattle twice, Carolina, and New England (who will be with Brady by the time they play). Right there could be six losses. San Francisco could be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but I think the Rams could still be staring at something like 5-11 here if their young players do not develop very quickly.
Reality: The schedule and the division here just seem to tough for Los Angeles to overcome. If the Rams get anywhere near a playoff berth I would be very surprised. This is probably a team that should finish around 6-10.
San Francisco 49ers
Since Jim Harbaugh left for Ann Arbor, the 49ers have done nothing but decline. And if that wasn't bad enough, Colin Kaepernick now has the team in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Chip Kelly has been a polarizing figure since he entered the league with the Eagles, and this is not exactly the best locker room for him to drop into. It seemed like Kaepernick was the perfect quarterback to fit Kelly's spread offense, but now that it seems like Blaine Gabbert is going to start the year as the quarterback, this team could be making more headlines off the field than on the field, and fans in San Francisco could very well be in for a long year.
Ceiling: Colin Kaepernick, for multiple reasons, has seemingly played himself into a job as the backup to Blaine Gabbert, and any team that is relying on Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback is in trouble. There are a few nice players on offense, but the defense is nothing like what it was a few years ago when San Francisco was playing in the Super Bowl. Anything other than last place in the division should be considered a success for the 49ers.
Floor: To put it bluntly, this could certainly be the worst team in the entire NFL. Do not be surprised if the 49ers are picking first in the draft next season.
Reality: This division is too tough for San Francisco to finish anywhere other than the bottom. They were at or near the bottom in every statistical category on both sides of the ball in 2015, and I find it hard to believe that 2016 will be any different. DeShaun Watson is expected to be one of the top prospects coming into the 2017 draft, and I think he could be wearing a 49ers jersey when draft day comes. If this team goes anything better than 4-12, I would be very surprised.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Zack Greinke improved to 12-4 last night in San Francisco, and while he has not been as close to as dominant as he was in 2015, the 12-4 record still looks pretty good. The team recalled Shelby Miller to start today, and I didn't want him the second we gave up Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson to get him in the offseason. He has done nothing but prove me right with a 2-9 record and a 7.14 ERA. The rosters will expand to 40 tomorrow, so it is not surprising to see him with the team for the last month of what is a lost season. Seeing A.J. Pollock back in center field is great, but every time I see Miller in a Diamondbacks jersey, I hate the trade even more. He will be on the mound this afternoon, so if the team wins, I will feel slightly better about the trade, but when I stand at 99% against the deal, I don't see him swinging my feelings too much any time soon.
Daily Giants Update: The final preseason game is tomorrow night against the Patriots. I don't expect the starters to play a ton, as the last preseason game is usually more important for the players at the back end of the roster than it is for the stars of the team. What I have seen so far has been mostly negative, but no one will remember the preseason once the regular season begins. The Giants go to Dallas on September 11th, and 4:25 PM on that day cannot come fast enough.
NFC West
For a long time, this was considered one of the weaker divisions in the league, but now it could be argued that two of the top five teams in the NFL are playing here. Seattle has appeared in the playoffs the past four seasons, and two of those appearances resulted in trips to the Super Bowl. They will no doubt be tough again. The Cardinals have made the playoffs two years in a row, and this team is better than both of those teams. It will be a rough and rugged fight at the top of this division.
Seattle Seahawks
A lot of people have Arizona penciled in at the top of this division, but I think the Seahawks will win it. The defense, as usual, is one of the best in the NFL. They have great players at all three levels, and led the NFC in rushing, passing, and scoring defense in 2015. What makes me a believer that this team will win the division is what Russell Wilson showed last year. Over 4,000 yards passing, 34 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. Wilson is no longer just a game manager. He is a team leader and a very good quarterback. With Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham (remember him?) leading the receiving corps, I like the potential that Wilson has to match what he did last year. Losing Marshawn Lynch is tough, but I do think that Thomas Rawls can at least be a serviceable replacement. The great equalizer here is injury. The offensive line is not great, and if Rawls or Wilson go down, Seattle will be in big trouble. Barring that though, this should absolutely be a very good team.
Ceiling: Super Bowl. That is what they should be thinking in Seattle. The defense is one of the best in the NFC, and Wilson has done nothing but get better and better as a quarterback. They are going to be in a dog fight with a very good Arizona Cardinals team at the top of this division, but whoever finishes second should still be playoff bound. Seattle has a chance to be 11-5 or 12-4 and win it all.
Floor: The offensive line and injuries seem to be the only way that this team can be derailed. The depth is not great, so if a star on either side of the ball goes down, they might be in trouble. If the offensive line is unable to block for Rawls, then maybe too much pressure is put on Wilson. While he has definitely been improving, I still don't think he is good enough to put this entire team on his back. Despite that, I still find it hard to believe this team finishing any worse than 8-8.
Reality: I definitely think the ceiling here is more likely than the floor. Wilson was brilliant last season, and they have multiple elite defensive players. If this team is not playing into the Divisional round of the playoffs, I would be very surprised. When the NFC Championship game is played, I expect the Seahawks to be there.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals seemed to have everything going their way in 2015. That was until they faced the Panthers in the NFC Championship game and were blown off the field, losing by 34 points. They will be out to prove that was an anomaly this year, and have a team that is definitely capable of doing some serious damage. Fantasy players are high on running back David Johnson, and I like him, but don't forget about Chris Johnson behind him. At this point in his career, I think Chris Johnson is in the perfect spot. Catch some passes out of the backfield, and get under 10 carries a game. The offense will not be elite, but it can definitely be good enough.
The strength of this team, just like the Seahawks, is the defense. Patrick Peterson is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, and the addition of Chandler Jones is huge. The linebacking corps is not the greatest, but with a very good defensive line and a very good secondary, Arizona can improve on what was already a top defensive unit.
Ceiling: Just like the Seahawks, the Cardinals should be thinking Super Bowl. Arizona has never won a Super Bowl, but I think many people feel that this is their best chance to finally end that drought. I think the best case scenario for Arizona is a first round bye and a berth in the Super Bowl, with a legitimate shot at winning.
Floor: The offensive line is not the greatest, so if that group is unable to pull its weight, it could seriously hinder Arizona's chance to make a deep postseason run. However, I think at worst this is a 9-7 team.
Reality: The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFC. Arizona will play the Patriots right out of the gate, but the best part of that is they will be the only team in the NFC West to play New England when they will be without Tom Brady. The rest of the division will have to face the Patriots after Brady is back from suspension. That is a definite advantage for the Cardinals. Depending on the seeding it may not happen, but we could surely see Arizona and Seattle playing in the NFC Championship game. That would be the first time two teams from the same division played in the conference championship game since 2013.
Los Angeles Rams
First, it is going to take some time to get used to saying Los Angeles Rams again. As far as geography goes, the Rams playing in Los Angeles makes much more sense in a division called the NFC West, but they have played in St. Louis for over two decades, so the first hurdle I will have to face with the Rams is getting used to saying Los Angeles instead of St. Louis.
As far as the team on the field, they have some elite talents in Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald, but they also have multiple weak spots and a rookie quarterback. As of today, it appears that Jared Goff will start the season on the bench, but as the first overall pick in the draft, it is almost a certainty that he will start at some point in 2016. In a division with two elite defenses, plus a matchup with Carolina, Goff is most likely going to see things he never saw in college. Gurley was a workhorse last year, and Los Angeles will rely heavily on him again this year. However, I think it is tough to believe that this team will compete for a spot in the playoffs. The future might be bright, but the future is not 2016.
Ceiling: With a young stud running back and a first overall pick at quarterback, I think the fans in Los Angeles, who have gone over two decades without football, can be somewhat optimistic. I just think that optimism cannot be for the 2016 season. The top of this division is too tough. If the Rams can get to 9-7, they should consider this year a success.
Floor: Los Angeles gets Arizona and Seattle twice, Carolina, and New England (who will be with Brady by the time they play). Right there could be six losses. San Francisco could be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but I think the Rams could still be staring at something like 5-11 here if their young players do not develop very quickly.
Reality: The schedule and the division here just seem to tough for Los Angeles to overcome. If the Rams get anywhere near a playoff berth I would be very surprised. This is probably a team that should finish around 6-10.
San Francisco 49ers
Since Jim Harbaugh left for Ann Arbor, the 49ers have done nothing but decline. And if that wasn't bad enough, Colin Kaepernick now has the team in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Chip Kelly has been a polarizing figure since he entered the league with the Eagles, and this is not exactly the best locker room for him to drop into. It seemed like Kaepernick was the perfect quarterback to fit Kelly's spread offense, but now that it seems like Blaine Gabbert is going to start the year as the quarterback, this team could be making more headlines off the field than on the field, and fans in San Francisco could very well be in for a long year.
Ceiling: Colin Kaepernick, for multiple reasons, has seemingly played himself into a job as the backup to Blaine Gabbert, and any team that is relying on Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback is in trouble. There are a few nice players on offense, but the defense is nothing like what it was a few years ago when San Francisco was playing in the Super Bowl. Anything other than last place in the division should be considered a success for the 49ers.
Floor: To put it bluntly, this could certainly be the worst team in the entire NFL. Do not be surprised if the 49ers are picking first in the draft next season.
Reality: This division is too tough for San Francisco to finish anywhere other than the bottom. They were at or near the bottom in every statistical category on both sides of the ball in 2015, and I find it hard to believe that 2016 will be any different. DeShaun Watson is expected to be one of the top prospects coming into the 2017 draft, and I think he could be wearing a 49ers jersey when draft day comes. If this team goes anything better than 4-12, I would be very surprised.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Zack Greinke improved to 12-4 last night in San Francisco, and while he has not been as close to as dominant as he was in 2015, the 12-4 record still looks pretty good. The team recalled Shelby Miller to start today, and I didn't want him the second we gave up Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson to get him in the offseason. He has done nothing but prove me right with a 2-9 record and a 7.14 ERA. The rosters will expand to 40 tomorrow, so it is not surprising to see him with the team for the last month of what is a lost season. Seeing A.J. Pollock back in center field is great, but every time I see Miller in a Diamondbacks jersey, I hate the trade even more. He will be on the mound this afternoon, so if the team wins, I will feel slightly better about the trade, but when I stand at 99% against the deal, I don't see him swinging my feelings too much any time soon.
Daily Giants Update: The final preseason game is tomorrow night against the Patriots. I don't expect the starters to play a ton, as the last preseason game is usually more important for the players at the back end of the roster than it is for the stars of the team. What I have seen so far has been mostly negative, but no one will remember the preseason once the regular season begins. The Giants go to Dallas on September 11th, and 4:25 PM on that day cannot come fast enough.
Monday, August 29, 2016
The games don't count, but they definitely do matter
There has been a debate for years and years about what the NFL should do with the preseason. Should there be less games? Should there be more games? Should star players be out there more? Should they be out there less? Will preseason success translate into regular season success? I used to be of the mindset that there should be less preseason games, but recently I have come around to the other side and I think that the preseason is just fine as it is, and that is due to a number of different factors.
The collective bargaining agreement that the owners and players signed in 2010 has come up in multiple discussions for multiple reasons since it was signed. One of the things that the players fought for most was a reduction in full-scale hitting during practice. Long gone are two-a-day workouts with full pads and full contact for the entirety of training camp. The players wanted that, and they got that. I totally understand why they would fight for that, and it is one of the few battles that they actually did win during the bargaining negotiations. However, one of the unintended consequences of that was that it puts an inordinate amount of focus on the preseason games. I am not talking about guys like Tom Brady or Von Miller. We all know that the superstars are going to be on the field when the season opens no matter what they do in the preseason. In this case, the preseason games now mean so much more for the guys at the back end of the rosters.
The league is not made up of first round picks. Every team has its superstars, but every team has more "foot soldiers" than superstars. For those foot soldiers who may have gone undrafted and have only a slim chance of making a roster, the more game tape they have, the better. Even if those guys might not make the team they play for during the preseason, they would have a better chance of signing somewhere else if other teams had film of them during full contact drills in addition to actual games where they might not get a ton of reps.
Most practices now involve little or no full contact drills, and it takes away the ability of these guys to try to shine. Maybe a backup defensive tackle makes a nice move to get himself a shot at a ball carrier, but since contact is limited, he can't take that shot and show his tackling technique. Then when he gets a chance to play in a preseason game, maybe he doesn't get that same chance. Can he wrap up and tackle, or should we not consider him for our team? Because of a variety of factors, you can't answer that question.
I understand that this could easily be viewed as nitpicking and trivial, but I think that for guys at the back end of rosters, it should at least come into consideration. College game tape does not tell the entire story. That goes for the highest paid players in the NFL as well as the last guy on the roster. The best way for these guys to get noticed and stand out is to put together good work on film so it can be seen by the people that decide whether or not they should have jobs. Since hitting is so limited in practices, I think that these preseason games are absolutely necessary and there is no way at all that the preseason schedule should be shortened.
The main reason that prompted me to write about this today though was the injury factor. Obviously, with more contact and hitting during practices and games comes more of a chance for injury. However, one thing I do know for sure is that any current or former player you speak to would tell you that the best way to get ready for playing football in the regular season is to play football. That means running, hitting, blocking, throwing, catching, and everything else that comes along with the game. I do not feel bad for guys who can't play because of domestic abuse or because of failed drug tests. I do though, feel bad for guys who can't play because of injury. I have said this before and I will say it again. When my team plays your team, I want them both to be at full strength. I want my best to beat your best. I am not going to apologize if the Giants beat a team that has been bitten by the injury bug, but I do have sympathy for those guys that can't be out there. So that leads me to Ben Watson's torn Achilles and John Harbaugh's comments about the injury.
Watson tore his Achilles this past weekend and will now miss the season. A.J. Green suffered an injury this past weekend as well, although his was not as serious as Watson's. Ravens and Bengals fans can complain about the preseason all they want, and Harbaugh can say all he wants about "finding other ways to get guys ready," but injuries happen in football, and every team has to deal with them. What adds to my argument is that both of these guys were injured on plays that involved zero contact. Watson was away from the play and his leg gave out. Green was the intended receiver on the play, but his injury occurred before the ball even was thrown to him. Neither of these injuries had anything to do with the length of the preseason. They were both freak accidents that could have occurred at any time. If they happened during practice, the teams would have considered them as such, but since they occurred during a game they should be blamed on the fact that these guys are out there playing at full speed? I'm sorry, but I don't agree with that.
The injuries had nothing to do with the length of the preseason. At any given time, there are 22 guys out on the field playing as hard as they can. I don't care if the game is played in August or it is played in January. With these guys playing as hard as they can comes the possibility of injury. So don't tell me that too many preseason games is the reason that Watson and Green are out. There are too many guys on too many teams who only have a limited number of chances to prove their worth, and because of that, the preseason schedule should not change.
Football is a violent game, and injuries are bound to occur because of that. I don't wish an injury on any player, but if it does happen, then you just have to deal with it. You are not the first to have to do so, and you will not be the last. Ben Watson just signed a deal worth $3 million in guaranteed money. That means he is getting that money no matter what. For some guy no one has heard of to get a shot at making the Ravens roster, Watson's injury is unfortunate, but it is also a huge opportunity. Even if that guy doesn't sign with Baltimore before this season, it still gives him another chance to show the other 31 teams what he can do.
Like I said before, the preseason might not count, but it still does matter. Any game tape these back of the roster guys can put together could be the difference between them getting a shot in the NFL or having to find a new profession. So it's because of those guys that we can't cut down on the preseason games. The players bargained for less contact at practice and they got it. They wanted less practice time. That means they were the ones who may have inadvertently put more of an emphasis on the preseason games. Maybe this falls into the law of unintended consequences category, but it also falls into the consequences category.
Injuries happen, and recoveries from those injuries happen. However, second chances do not happen for many guys in this league, and because of that, it could be argued that preseason games now matter more than they ever did before, even if regular season records are not affected at all by them.
Daily Giants Update: The stance that the Giants took on the Colin Kaepernick issue was one that I liked, but I really hope that the team will realize it looks very hypocritical if they keep Josh Brown on the roster while standing against Kaepernick. Preseason cuts are on the very near horizon, so we will see what happens. I just hope that the organization realizes supporting Brown and standing against Kaepernick does not give off the best image.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Arizona followed up a 13-0 loss with an 11-2 win, so it is truly to a point where each day is completely unpredictable. The next 21 games are all within the division, so if they can maybe go on a 19 game winning streak, the playoffs might be within reach. If not, then at least A.J. Pollock is back.
The collective bargaining agreement that the owners and players signed in 2010 has come up in multiple discussions for multiple reasons since it was signed. One of the things that the players fought for most was a reduction in full-scale hitting during practice. Long gone are two-a-day workouts with full pads and full contact for the entirety of training camp. The players wanted that, and they got that. I totally understand why they would fight for that, and it is one of the few battles that they actually did win during the bargaining negotiations. However, one of the unintended consequences of that was that it puts an inordinate amount of focus on the preseason games. I am not talking about guys like Tom Brady or Von Miller. We all know that the superstars are going to be on the field when the season opens no matter what they do in the preseason. In this case, the preseason games now mean so much more for the guys at the back end of the rosters.
The league is not made up of first round picks. Every team has its superstars, but every team has more "foot soldiers" than superstars. For those foot soldiers who may have gone undrafted and have only a slim chance of making a roster, the more game tape they have, the better. Even if those guys might not make the team they play for during the preseason, they would have a better chance of signing somewhere else if other teams had film of them during full contact drills in addition to actual games where they might not get a ton of reps.
Most practices now involve little or no full contact drills, and it takes away the ability of these guys to try to shine. Maybe a backup defensive tackle makes a nice move to get himself a shot at a ball carrier, but since contact is limited, he can't take that shot and show his tackling technique. Then when he gets a chance to play in a preseason game, maybe he doesn't get that same chance. Can he wrap up and tackle, or should we not consider him for our team? Because of a variety of factors, you can't answer that question.
I understand that this could easily be viewed as nitpicking and trivial, but I think that for guys at the back end of rosters, it should at least come into consideration. College game tape does not tell the entire story. That goes for the highest paid players in the NFL as well as the last guy on the roster. The best way for these guys to get noticed and stand out is to put together good work on film so it can be seen by the people that decide whether or not they should have jobs. Since hitting is so limited in practices, I think that these preseason games are absolutely necessary and there is no way at all that the preseason schedule should be shortened.
The main reason that prompted me to write about this today though was the injury factor. Obviously, with more contact and hitting during practices and games comes more of a chance for injury. However, one thing I do know for sure is that any current or former player you speak to would tell you that the best way to get ready for playing football in the regular season is to play football. That means running, hitting, blocking, throwing, catching, and everything else that comes along with the game. I do not feel bad for guys who can't play because of domestic abuse or because of failed drug tests. I do though, feel bad for guys who can't play because of injury. I have said this before and I will say it again. When my team plays your team, I want them both to be at full strength. I want my best to beat your best. I am not going to apologize if the Giants beat a team that has been bitten by the injury bug, but I do have sympathy for those guys that can't be out there. So that leads me to Ben Watson's torn Achilles and John Harbaugh's comments about the injury.
Watson tore his Achilles this past weekend and will now miss the season. A.J. Green suffered an injury this past weekend as well, although his was not as serious as Watson's. Ravens and Bengals fans can complain about the preseason all they want, and Harbaugh can say all he wants about "finding other ways to get guys ready," but injuries happen in football, and every team has to deal with them. What adds to my argument is that both of these guys were injured on plays that involved zero contact. Watson was away from the play and his leg gave out. Green was the intended receiver on the play, but his injury occurred before the ball even was thrown to him. Neither of these injuries had anything to do with the length of the preseason. They were both freak accidents that could have occurred at any time. If they happened during practice, the teams would have considered them as such, but since they occurred during a game they should be blamed on the fact that these guys are out there playing at full speed? I'm sorry, but I don't agree with that.
The injuries had nothing to do with the length of the preseason. At any given time, there are 22 guys out on the field playing as hard as they can. I don't care if the game is played in August or it is played in January. With these guys playing as hard as they can comes the possibility of injury. So don't tell me that too many preseason games is the reason that Watson and Green are out. There are too many guys on too many teams who only have a limited number of chances to prove their worth, and because of that, the preseason schedule should not change.
Football is a violent game, and injuries are bound to occur because of that. I don't wish an injury on any player, but if it does happen, then you just have to deal with it. You are not the first to have to do so, and you will not be the last. Ben Watson just signed a deal worth $3 million in guaranteed money. That means he is getting that money no matter what. For some guy no one has heard of to get a shot at making the Ravens roster, Watson's injury is unfortunate, but it is also a huge opportunity. Even if that guy doesn't sign with Baltimore before this season, it still gives him another chance to show the other 31 teams what he can do.
Like I said before, the preseason might not count, but it still does matter. Any game tape these back of the roster guys can put together could be the difference between them getting a shot in the NFL or having to find a new profession. So it's because of those guys that we can't cut down on the preseason games. The players bargained for less contact at practice and they got it. They wanted less practice time. That means they were the ones who may have inadvertently put more of an emphasis on the preseason games. Maybe this falls into the law of unintended consequences category, but it also falls into the consequences category.
Injuries happen, and recoveries from those injuries happen. However, second chances do not happen for many guys in this league, and because of that, it could be argued that preseason games now matter more than they ever did before, even if regular season records are not affected at all by them.
Daily Giants Update: The stance that the Giants took on the Colin Kaepernick issue was one that I liked, but I really hope that the team will realize it looks very hypocritical if they keep Josh Brown on the roster while standing against Kaepernick. Preseason cuts are on the very near horizon, so we will see what happens. I just hope that the organization realizes supporting Brown and standing against Kaepernick does not give off the best image.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Arizona followed up a 13-0 loss with an 11-2 win, so it is truly to a point where each day is completely unpredictable. The next 21 games are all within the division, so if they can maybe go on a 19 game winning streak, the playoffs might be within reach. If not, then at least A.J. Pollock is back.
Friday, August 26, 2016
Marijuana, Josh Gordon, and the NFL
With the addition of Robert Griffin III and some other offseason acquisitions, there seems to actually be at least a bit of expectations within the Cleveland Browns training camp. For a team that has gone nearly a decade without a winning season, high expectations do not exactly mean making the Super Bowl, but I think that the most extreme optimists may believe that Cleveland has a chance to reach 8-8 this year. If absolutely everything goes right for this team, I still think 8-8 is unreachable. More importantly though, I seriously doubt that everything will go right.
I have already previewed the AFC North, so I will not go into full detail as to why I think Cleveland will have another rough season, but I do want to address NFL fans with high expectations, and I want to include their wide receiver Josh Gordon in a larger discussion about the NFL and its players in general.
In 2012, Gordon burst onto the scene in the NFL. His 50 catches, 805 yards, and five touchdowns led all rookie wide receivers. After years of terrible drafts, it seemed as if Cleveland had finally found its diamond in the rough. They had finally found the needle in the vast haystack that had been their history. But, as Lee Corso would say, not so fast, my friend.
During the offseason prior to the 2013 season, the NFL suspended Gordon for the first two games of the regular season due to him violating the league's substance abuse policy. However, as is always the case with pro athletes of the highest caliber, the better you are, the more leash you get. Upon returning, Gordon put up Pro Bowl numbers, including being the first wide receiver in league history to put up consecutive 200 yard games. It was official. Gordon was an up and coming superstar. That was, again, until Gordon found himself in more trouble.
Thanks to a DWI arrest in the offseason, the league suspended Gordon for 10 games. Add that on to a one game suspension by Cleveland later in the season, and Gordon only played in five games. So how did Gordon follow that up? He violated the league's substance abuse policy again and this time was suspended for the entire 2015 season. A year long suspension for multiple failed drug tests must have taught him to stay out of trouble, right? Nope. It did not.
In March of this past year, Gordon failed yet another drug test, and is now going to miss the first four games of this season. After being suspended twice for violating the league's substance abuse policy, and knowing he would be drug tested, Gordon still managed to fail another test. Clearly, this was no longer a one time mistake. It was, and clearly still is, a serious problem. Despite Gordon being scheduled to miss the first four games of this season, many people still have extremely high hopes for Gordon when he finally returns. He was so great when he was on the field, so he will be that just again. My question is this though: Will he?
The last (and only) time Gordon played all 16 games was 2012. He had an undeniably great season. In 2012, Calvin Johnson led the league in multiple receiving categories. Do you know where Calvin Johnson is now? He is retired. Peyton Manning was at the top of the league in multiple passing categories. Colin Kaepernick led his team to the Super Bowl. As of today, Manning is retired and Kaepernick is having a hard time beating out Blaine Gabbert for the starting quarterback job in San Francisco. 2012 is a long time ago. That means that what Josh Gordon did that year is far in the distance of the rear view mirror. Because of his inability to remain on the field thanks to his ability to fail drug tests (while knowing that he would be subjected to them), Gordon is a long way away from his career season. Most people believe that NFL stands for Not For Long. That means that in 2016, what someone did in 2012 is a distant memory.
I do not want to make this all about Gordon, but he is the prime example of what I intend to be my larger point. The Pittsburgh Steelers have Super Bowl caliber talent on their roster, and they have Super Bowl aspirations. With Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, they have what is probably the best quarterback to wide receiver duo in the entire league. Add Martavis Bryant and Le'Veon Bell to that mix, and they have one of the best offenses in the NFL. However, it will not be until Week 5 that Bell will be on the field, and it will not be until 2017 that Bryant will be on the field. Bryant will miss the season due to a substance abuse violation, and Bell will miss the first four games because of the same thing. Pittsburgh faces the Bengals in Week 2 and the Chiefs in Week 4. Those are both two very good teams. It would be nice for Pittsburgh to be at full strength, but because of Bell and Bryant failing drug tests, they will not be at full strength.
So, my main message to these guys is this: STOP SMOKING WEED. I don't care what you think about its legality. I don't care what you think about its medicinal purposes. I don't care what the view of the overall public might be on the drug. I don't care how it might not be as addictive as some of the painkillers the league prescribes are. The league tests for it, and these guys seem to be incapable of realizing that. I am not an expert on marijuana and its effects on the body or its benefits as a painkiller. If it is a more reliable and less addictive relief of pain than other drugs, then that is great. But until the NFL stops testing for it, I don't care what anyone else thinks. That means it is illegal in your profession, and that means I have zero sympathy for anyone who fails any test for it.
I am not going to stand on a soapbox and lecture you about how marijuana might affect your body. If you want to smoke it, then go ahead. There are vices that are far worse than weed. But if you know that the NFL tests for it and you continue to use it, fail tests, and get suspended, then you are stupid. If at my job, the bosses told me that I could only use pens and not use pencils, you would not see me with any pencils at the office. If the bosses told me I could not dress in green clothes, then I am not going to dress in green clothes. The same is true with weed. If I want to keep my job and smoking is against the rules, then I am not going to smoke.
Justify it however you might want, but these guys who fail drug tests are hurting both themselves and their teams. They are hurting their teams by not being out on the field, and they are hurting themselves because they are missing game checks, and now are being flagged as risks when it comes to their next contract negotiations.
Don't give me legality excuses. Don't give me medicinal excuses. The fact remains that the NFL tests for marijuana, and if you fail their tests, then you are going to be suspended. If and when the league stops testing for it, then go ahead and walk around high 24/7. I know plenty of people that smoke weed all the time and excel at their jobs because it is not against the protocol of their employers. If it doesn't affect their performance at work, then I have no problem with it. However, if your job does not permit using the drug and you ignore the rules and continually fail drug tests, then you deserve to be suspended. I'm sure there are plenty of people waiting to take your place that will not be stupid enough to fail test after test.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Another loss last night dropped Arizona to 53-75. All we really have to look forward to now is the September roster expansion and giving young guys a chance to get on the field.
Daily Giants Update: The third preseason game is officially the dress rehearsal for the regular season, and that will happen tomorrow night for the Giants. There have been multiple problems in the first two preseason games, and they start up front with the offensive line. I have liked how Olivier Vernon has played, as well as Eli Apple and Sterling Shepard. The running game has been a serious problem though, so it would be very nice to see some sort of improvement up front so we do not have to have another season of relying on only Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr.
I have already previewed the AFC North, so I will not go into full detail as to why I think Cleveland will have another rough season, but I do want to address NFL fans with high expectations, and I want to include their wide receiver Josh Gordon in a larger discussion about the NFL and its players in general.
In 2012, Gordon burst onto the scene in the NFL. His 50 catches, 805 yards, and five touchdowns led all rookie wide receivers. After years of terrible drafts, it seemed as if Cleveland had finally found its diamond in the rough. They had finally found the needle in the vast haystack that had been their history. But, as Lee Corso would say, not so fast, my friend.
During the offseason prior to the 2013 season, the NFL suspended Gordon for the first two games of the regular season due to him violating the league's substance abuse policy. However, as is always the case with pro athletes of the highest caliber, the better you are, the more leash you get. Upon returning, Gordon put up Pro Bowl numbers, including being the first wide receiver in league history to put up consecutive 200 yard games. It was official. Gordon was an up and coming superstar. That was, again, until Gordon found himself in more trouble.
Thanks to a DWI arrest in the offseason, the league suspended Gordon for 10 games. Add that on to a one game suspension by Cleveland later in the season, and Gordon only played in five games. So how did Gordon follow that up? He violated the league's substance abuse policy again and this time was suspended for the entire 2015 season. A year long suspension for multiple failed drug tests must have taught him to stay out of trouble, right? Nope. It did not.
In March of this past year, Gordon failed yet another drug test, and is now going to miss the first four games of this season. After being suspended twice for violating the league's substance abuse policy, and knowing he would be drug tested, Gordon still managed to fail another test. Clearly, this was no longer a one time mistake. It was, and clearly still is, a serious problem. Despite Gordon being scheduled to miss the first four games of this season, many people still have extremely high hopes for Gordon when he finally returns. He was so great when he was on the field, so he will be that just again. My question is this though: Will he?
The last (and only) time Gordon played all 16 games was 2012. He had an undeniably great season. In 2012, Calvin Johnson led the league in multiple receiving categories. Do you know where Calvin Johnson is now? He is retired. Peyton Manning was at the top of the league in multiple passing categories. Colin Kaepernick led his team to the Super Bowl. As of today, Manning is retired and Kaepernick is having a hard time beating out Blaine Gabbert for the starting quarterback job in San Francisco. 2012 is a long time ago. That means that what Josh Gordon did that year is far in the distance of the rear view mirror. Because of his inability to remain on the field thanks to his ability to fail drug tests (while knowing that he would be subjected to them), Gordon is a long way away from his career season. Most people believe that NFL stands for Not For Long. That means that in 2016, what someone did in 2012 is a distant memory.
I do not want to make this all about Gordon, but he is the prime example of what I intend to be my larger point. The Pittsburgh Steelers have Super Bowl caliber talent on their roster, and they have Super Bowl aspirations. With Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, they have what is probably the best quarterback to wide receiver duo in the entire league. Add Martavis Bryant and Le'Veon Bell to that mix, and they have one of the best offenses in the NFL. However, it will not be until Week 5 that Bell will be on the field, and it will not be until 2017 that Bryant will be on the field. Bryant will miss the season due to a substance abuse violation, and Bell will miss the first four games because of the same thing. Pittsburgh faces the Bengals in Week 2 and the Chiefs in Week 4. Those are both two very good teams. It would be nice for Pittsburgh to be at full strength, but because of Bell and Bryant failing drug tests, they will not be at full strength.
So, my main message to these guys is this: STOP SMOKING WEED. I don't care what you think about its legality. I don't care what you think about its medicinal purposes. I don't care what the view of the overall public might be on the drug. I don't care how it might not be as addictive as some of the painkillers the league prescribes are. The league tests for it, and these guys seem to be incapable of realizing that. I am not an expert on marijuana and its effects on the body or its benefits as a painkiller. If it is a more reliable and less addictive relief of pain than other drugs, then that is great. But until the NFL stops testing for it, I don't care what anyone else thinks. That means it is illegal in your profession, and that means I have zero sympathy for anyone who fails any test for it.
I am not going to stand on a soapbox and lecture you about how marijuana might affect your body. If you want to smoke it, then go ahead. There are vices that are far worse than weed. But if you know that the NFL tests for it and you continue to use it, fail tests, and get suspended, then you are stupid. If at my job, the bosses told me that I could only use pens and not use pencils, you would not see me with any pencils at the office. If the bosses told me I could not dress in green clothes, then I am not going to dress in green clothes. The same is true with weed. If I want to keep my job and smoking is against the rules, then I am not going to smoke.
Justify it however you might want, but these guys who fail drug tests are hurting both themselves and their teams. They are hurting their teams by not being out on the field, and they are hurting themselves because they are missing game checks, and now are being flagged as risks when it comes to their next contract negotiations.
Don't give me legality excuses. Don't give me medicinal excuses. The fact remains that the NFL tests for marijuana, and if you fail their tests, then you are going to be suspended. If and when the league stops testing for it, then go ahead and walk around high 24/7. I know plenty of people that smoke weed all the time and excel at their jobs because it is not against the protocol of their employers. If it doesn't affect their performance at work, then I have no problem with it. However, if your job does not permit using the drug and you ignore the rules and continually fail drug tests, then you deserve to be suspended. I'm sure there are plenty of people waiting to take your place that will not be stupid enough to fail test after test.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Another loss last night dropped Arizona to 53-75. All we really have to look forward to now is the September roster expansion and giving young guys a chance to get on the field.
Daily Giants Update: The third preseason game is officially the dress rehearsal for the regular season, and that will happen tomorrow night for the Giants. There have been multiple problems in the first two preseason games, and they start up front with the offensive line. I have liked how Olivier Vernon has played, as well as Eli Apple and Sterling Shepard. The running game has been a serious problem though, so it would be very nice to see some sort of improvement up front so we do not have to have another season of relying on only Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr.
Monday, August 22, 2016
A very casual Olympic recap
I do not pretend to be a huge fan of the Olympics. I never have been, and I never will be. Going into these 2016 games in Rio, the buildup was almost entirely negative. Water conditions, health concerns, security issues, living conditions of the athletes and other problems seemed to be stealing most of the headlines. While the games went off pretty well, some of these issues did arise, but now that the games are over, we will still remember 2016 more for the competitions than the conditions.
Like I said, I never really watch a ton of the Olympics, whether it be summer or winter, and that was the case over the past month. I watched some basketball, some soccer, some swimming, a bit of cycling, and a bit of water polo. That was it. I just kind of turned the games on when I had a chance, and those were the events that happened to be on when I watched. There were very few events that I planned on watching and then did actually watch. It was pretty much whatever was on when I tuned into the coverage. Therefore, I know that I should be considered a casual fan at best, but I still felt like I have a few things to say about the 2016 games, whether they happened during or away from competition.
First off, I will start with the good.
Michael Phelps: After going through some personal problems since the 2012 games, Phelps ended his Olympic career in style in Rio. Six events, five gold medals, one silver medal. Not much has to be said after that. It is impossible to mention the greatest Olympians of all time without including Phelps in the discussion. Whether or not you have him at the top of the list is up for debate, but he is near the top without question.
Phelps has won an astonishing 23 gold medals at the Olympics, and 28 overall. People that somehow want to discredit his accomplishments by pointing to the fact that there are more swimming events than any other sport are kidding themselves. Phelps dominating so many events proves that he is far more than a one-trick pony.
Adam LaRoche can hit a ton of home runs and bat under .200. Jason Kidd can lead the league in assists but average less than ten points per game. Only the very best can dominate throughout all of the categories, and Phelps has now firmly established himself as one of the very best.
He says his Olympic career is over, but at age 32 it may not be. Maybe a few years from now he will get the urge to compete once again. We have seen this happen with athletes time and time again, so I would not rule it out just yet. Even if his career is officially over though, Phelps is one of the greatest Olympians ever.
Usain Bolt: Before mentioning any of his accomplishments, I have to say that because of what he does, Usain Bolt is absolutely the best name in the history of sports. Walter Payton had a great nickname, Ted Williams always wanted to be known as the "greatest hitter that ever lived," and there have been others as well. However, for a legendary sprinter, it does not get better than Usain Bolt. And that is only the beginning.
For the third consecutive Olympic games, Bolt won the 100 meter, 200 meter, and 4x100 meter races. Like Phelps, he is both dominant individually and in team events. However, unlike Phelps, Bolt has a charisma and flair about him that very few athletes have ever had. What this man does on the track is not only dominant, but it is as fun to watch as it gets.
All Bolt has to do is step into the starting blocks and the eyes of the world are on him. Somehow, he makes the 100 meter race seem like a marathon. You would think that in a race that only lasts between nine and ten seconds, the man with the best start would win almost all of the time. With Bolt that is not the case. Multiple guys will come out of the blocks faster than he does, but he will glide past them in what seems like an effortless fashion. No matter who starts the fastest, Bolt always finishes the race smiling at the camera and finishing first. I have never before seen an athlete make being so dominant so easy. All it takes is ten seconds for him to captivate millions of people. Like Phelps, this may be Bolt's final Olympic games, but also like Phelps, Bolt is without question one of the greatest Olympians ever.
Katie Ledecky: This was a new name coming into 2016. If this lady walked down the street one month ago, no one would know who she was. After what she did in the pool though, she came out of these games as an up and coming superstar. Like Phelps, she won multiple gold medals in multiple events, but what she did in the 800 meter individual freestyle race was the stuff of legends. 12 seconds may not seem like much in our daily life, but during the women's 800 meter swimming final, it seemed like a year. In 16 laps back and forth through the pool, she won the race by so much that she was swimming one direction and the other seven were swimming in the opposite direction because they had not even reached the wall she had already turned off of. It was like lapping someone in a long distance race except it was even more dominant. Picture lapping someone in a race around a track, turning around and running the opposite direction, and then passing everyone before they even make it halfway to the finish line you already reached. Ledecky did it with class, style, and dominance, and she was absolutely one of the stars of the games.
USA Basketball: Following a bronze medal in 2004, the U.S. men's basketball team underwent a total upheaval that was led by Jerry Colangelo and Mike Krzyzewski. Since that happened, Krzyzewski has led the team to 88 wins in 89 games, and a third straight gold medal. There were a few close games during the tournament, but even without superstars like Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and LeBron James, our basketball team won the gold medal in a 30 point win over Serbia.
As if the men didn't dominate enough, the women were just as good, and probably better. With Geno Auriemma leading a squad that seemed like a UConn alumni All-Star team, the women cruised to gold just like the men, firmly establishing the United States at the top of the world in basketball, no matter the gender.
The medal count: I know I only mentioned the marquee names here, but in totality, the United States absolutely dominated the 2016 games. We won 121 medals overall, 46 of which were gold. China finished second overall in the medal count with 70. So outside of basketball and swimming, we cannot forget how dominant our team was from top to bottom. Whether it be wrestling, beach volleyball, field hockey, or any other sport, the United States clearly established itself atop the overall leaderboard.
Yes, there was a whole lot to be proud of as Americans coming out of the past month. However, there were still a few things that did not sit well with me. Some of them had to do with other nations, but most of them had to do with our nation.
Conditions in Rio: I do understand that these games went off much more smoothly than it seemed like they would. However, that does not mean that they went off perfectly. There were a few athletes getting sick because of the water conditions. There were some very subpar living conditions in the Olympic Village. There was an indoor pool that somehow mysteriously turned green one day. There were some instances of crime. It may not have been as bad as expected, but the conditions were still not ideal for a worldwide event that had everyone watching.
Ryan Lochte: I knew of Lochte's name going into these games, but his name was elevated into the international spotlight about a week ago, and it was for all the wrong reasons. I knew Lochte as a swimmer, and he did swim at these games. However, no one cared about that after he and two of his teammates got drunk, destroyed a bathroom at a gas station, urinated on the floor of it, and then lied about it all.
I understand that Lochte was originally scheduled to leave the games the day after it happened, so I am not calling him out for leaving Brazil before his teammates like some people are. His teammates were scheduled to stay in Rio after he left, so none of their schedules changed. However, after he lied about being held up at gunpoint and robbed when in reality he just got drunk and vandalized a bathroom at a gas station, I have zero sympathy for Lochte. Yesterday he explained to Matt Lauer that he was sorry for what he did. I'm sorry for not feeling sorry for you, Mr. Lochte. I just will never be able to feel that way.
And now, last but surely not least...
Hope Solo: I love soccer and I love the United States. Now that that is out of the way, let me address what Solo did and said. After losing in the semifinals to Sweden in a shootout, Solo called the Swedish team cowards for the way that they played the game. This was coming from a woman with a history of not only saying negative things about our soccer federation, but also with a history of drunken domestic violence.
Solo attacked family members with weapons while intoxicated, and after losing to Sweden, she came up with comments that were completely classless. The United States is a better team than Sweden on paper. Therefore, in order for Sweden to beat the United States, they decided to play in a compact style. They succeeded in doing so and then won the game in a shootout. Immediately after the match, Solo referred to Sweden's style of play as cowardly, and I was not the only one who found her comments full of spitefulness and bitterness.
I know that the talent you possess gives you a longer leash when it comes to bad behavior, but I would be perfectly fine with Solo never taking the field again in a U.S. uniform. The problem with that is, I am not sure that we have a viable replacement for her. If we can find one before the next World Cup, then I am all for getting her off the field. If we cannot, then I will cheer for our team, but it will be despite her.
Solo has outlasted her welcome on our national team because of multiple bad incidents that have added up to a mountain that she will never be able to climb, and I am sure that I am not the only American soccer fan who feels the same way.
Overall: My overall analysis of the 2016 games is a pretty good one. Despite the negativity going into the games, I think the event went off rather well. The United States dominated the medal count, and I am happy for all of our athletes that contributed to that. The Ryan Lochte and Hope Solo stories will fade away soon, and I think that a decade from now, these Olympics will mostly be remembered for another chapter in the dominance of Phelps, Bolt, and U.S. basketball. Maybe if Ledecky repeats her performance in 2020, this could be the jumping off point for her Olympic career, but I have no idea if that will happen.
This was not the 1992 Olympics with the Dream Team or the 1996 Olympics with Muhammad Ali lighting the torch. However, it was still a month that we can celebrate because our country achieved great success at the highest levels of all different kinds of competitions.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: After Robbie Ray was masterful on Saturday, Arizona followed that up with a 9-1 loss yesterday. The lowly Braves come to town starting tonight in a battle of bottom feeders in the National League.
Daily Giants Update: The Giants looked very bad in pretty much all facets of the game this past weekend against the Buffalo Bills, and Josh Brown has been suspended for the first game of the regular season. Some of the additions on defense have seemed to be good in a very small sample size, but I still have huge concerns about the offensive line. Preseason games do not count, but they do matter. With the regular season getting closer and closer, it would be nice to see the Giants put some good football together next week.
Like I said, I never really watch a ton of the Olympics, whether it be summer or winter, and that was the case over the past month. I watched some basketball, some soccer, some swimming, a bit of cycling, and a bit of water polo. That was it. I just kind of turned the games on when I had a chance, and those were the events that happened to be on when I watched. There were very few events that I planned on watching and then did actually watch. It was pretty much whatever was on when I tuned into the coverage. Therefore, I know that I should be considered a casual fan at best, but I still felt like I have a few things to say about the 2016 games, whether they happened during or away from competition.
First off, I will start with the good.
Michael Phelps: After going through some personal problems since the 2012 games, Phelps ended his Olympic career in style in Rio. Six events, five gold medals, one silver medal. Not much has to be said after that. It is impossible to mention the greatest Olympians of all time without including Phelps in the discussion. Whether or not you have him at the top of the list is up for debate, but he is near the top without question.
Phelps has won an astonishing 23 gold medals at the Olympics, and 28 overall. People that somehow want to discredit his accomplishments by pointing to the fact that there are more swimming events than any other sport are kidding themselves. Phelps dominating so many events proves that he is far more than a one-trick pony.
Adam LaRoche can hit a ton of home runs and bat under .200. Jason Kidd can lead the league in assists but average less than ten points per game. Only the very best can dominate throughout all of the categories, and Phelps has now firmly established himself as one of the very best.
He says his Olympic career is over, but at age 32 it may not be. Maybe a few years from now he will get the urge to compete once again. We have seen this happen with athletes time and time again, so I would not rule it out just yet. Even if his career is officially over though, Phelps is one of the greatest Olympians ever.
Usain Bolt: Before mentioning any of his accomplishments, I have to say that because of what he does, Usain Bolt is absolutely the best name in the history of sports. Walter Payton had a great nickname, Ted Williams always wanted to be known as the "greatest hitter that ever lived," and there have been others as well. However, for a legendary sprinter, it does not get better than Usain Bolt. And that is only the beginning.
For the third consecutive Olympic games, Bolt won the 100 meter, 200 meter, and 4x100 meter races. Like Phelps, he is both dominant individually and in team events. However, unlike Phelps, Bolt has a charisma and flair about him that very few athletes have ever had. What this man does on the track is not only dominant, but it is as fun to watch as it gets.
All Bolt has to do is step into the starting blocks and the eyes of the world are on him. Somehow, he makes the 100 meter race seem like a marathon. You would think that in a race that only lasts between nine and ten seconds, the man with the best start would win almost all of the time. With Bolt that is not the case. Multiple guys will come out of the blocks faster than he does, but he will glide past them in what seems like an effortless fashion. No matter who starts the fastest, Bolt always finishes the race smiling at the camera and finishing first. I have never before seen an athlete make being so dominant so easy. All it takes is ten seconds for him to captivate millions of people. Like Phelps, this may be Bolt's final Olympic games, but also like Phelps, Bolt is without question one of the greatest Olympians ever.
Katie Ledecky: This was a new name coming into 2016. If this lady walked down the street one month ago, no one would know who she was. After what she did in the pool though, she came out of these games as an up and coming superstar. Like Phelps, she won multiple gold medals in multiple events, but what she did in the 800 meter individual freestyle race was the stuff of legends. 12 seconds may not seem like much in our daily life, but during the women's 800 meter swimming final, it seemed like a year. In 16 laps back and forth through the pool, she won the race by so much that she was swimming one direction and the other seven were swimming in the opposite direction because they had not even reached the wall she had already turned off of. It was like lapping someone in a long distance race except it was even more dominant. Picture lapping someone in a race around a track, turning around and running the opposite direction, and then passing everyone before they even make it halfway to the finish line you already reached. Ledecky did it with class, style, and dominance, and she was absolutely one of the stars of the games.
USA Basketball: Following a bronze medal in 2004, the U.S. men's basketball team underwent a total upheaval that was led by Jerry Colangelo and Mike Krzyzewski. Since that happened, Krzyzewski has led the team to 88 wins in 89 games, and a third straight gold medal. There were a few close games during the tournament, but even without superstars like Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and LeBron James, our basketball team won the gold medal in a 30 point win over Serbia.
As if the men didn't dominate enough, the women were just as good, and probably better. With Geno Auriemma leading a squad that seemed like a UConn alumni All-Star team, the women cruised to gold just like the men, firmly establishing the United States at the top of the world in basketball, no matter the gender.
The medal count: I know I only mentioned the marquee names here, but in totality, the United States absolutely dominated the 2016 games. We won 121 medals overall, 46 of which were gold. China finished second overall in the medal count with 70. So outside of basketball and swimming, we cannot forget how dominant our team was from top to bottom. Whether it be wrestling, beach volleyball, field hockey, or any other sport, the United States clearly established itself atop the overall leaderboard.
Yes, there was a whole lot to be proud of as Americans coming out of the past month. However, there were still a few things that did not sit well with me. Some of them had to do with other nations, but most of them had to do with our nation.
Conditions in Rio: I do understand that these games went off much more smoothly than it seemed like they would. However, that does not mean that they went off perfectly. There were a few athletes getting sick because of the water conditions. There were some very subpar living conditions in the Olympic Village. There was an indoor pool that somehow mysteriously turned green one day. There were some instances of crime. It may not have been as bad as expected, but the conditions were still not ideal for a worldwide event that had everyone watching.
Ryan Lochte: I knew of Lochte's name going into these games, but his name was elevated into the international spotlight about a week ago, and it was for all the wrong reasons. I knew Lochte as a swimmer, and he did swim at these games. However, no one cared about that after he and two of his teammates got drunk, destroyed a bathroom at a gas station, urinated on the floor of it, and then lied about it all.
I understand that Lochte was originally scheduled to leave the games the day after it happened, so I am not calling him out for leaving Brazil before his teammates like some people are. His teammates were scheduled to stay in Rio after he left, so none of their schedules changed. However, after he lied about being held up at gunpoint and robbed when in reality he just got drunk and vandalized a bathroom at a gas station, I have zero sympathy for Lochte. Yesterday he explained to Matt Lauer that he was sorry for what he did. I'm sorry for not feeling sorry for you, Mr. Lochte. I just will never be able to feel that way.
And now, last but surely not least...
Hope Solo: I love soccer and I love the United States. Now that that is out of the way, let me address what Solo did and said. After losing in the semifinals to Sweden in a shootout, Solo called the Swedish team cowards for the way that they played the game. This was coming from a woman with a history of not only saying negative things about our soccer federation, but also with a history of drunken domestic violence.
Solo attacked family members with weapons while intoxicated, and after losing to Sweden, she came up with comments that were completely classless. The United States is a better team than Sweden on paper. Therefore, in order for Sweden to beat the United States, they decided to play in a compact style. They succeeded in doing so and then won the game in a shootout. Immediately after the match, Solo referred to Sweden's style of play as cowardly, and I was not the only one who found her comments full of spitefulness and bitterness.
I know that the talent you possess gives you a longer leash when it comes to bad behavior, but I would be perfectly fine with Solo never taking the field again in a U.S. uniform. The problem with that is, I am not sure that we have a viable replacement for her. If we can find one before the next World Cup, then I am all for getting her off the field. If we cannot, then I will cheer for our team, but it will be despite her.
Solo has outlasted her welcome on our national team because of multiple bad incidents that have added up to a mountain that she will never be able to climb, and I am sure that I am not the only American soccer fan who feels the same way.
Overall: My overall analysis of the 2016 games is a pretty good one. Despite the negativity going into the games, I think the event went off rather well. The United States dominated the medal count, and I am happy for all of our athletes that contributed to that. The Ryan Lochte and Hope Solo stories will fade away soon, and I think that a decade from now, these Olympics will mostly be remembered for another chapter in the dominance of Phelps, Bolt, and U.S. basketball. Maybe if Ledecky repeats her performance in 2020, this could be the jumping off point for her Olympic career, but I have no idea if that will happen.
This was not the 1992 Olympics with the Dream Team or the 1996 Olympics with Muhammad Ali lighting the torch. However, it was still a month that we can celebrate because our country achieved great success at the highest levels of all different kinds of competitions.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: After Robbie Ray was masterful on Saturday, Arizona followed that up with a 9-1 loss yesterday. The lowly Braves come to town starting tonight in a battle of bottom feeders in the National League.
Daily Giants Update: The Giants looked very bad in pretty much all facets of the game this past weekend against the Buffalo Bills, and Josh Brown has been suspended for the first game of the regular season. Some of the additions on defense have seemed to be good in a very small sample size, but I still have huge concerns about the offensive line. Preseason games do not count, but they do matter. With the regular season getting closer and closer, it would be nice to see the Giants put some good football together next week.
Thursday, August 18, 2016
NFL Predictions: Part Six
NFC South
The NFC South is an interesting division. It has been known for teams going from bad to good over short periods of time, and it is led by the defending NFC Champion Carolina Panthers. Carolina should be at the top again this season, but after that, I think it is definitely wide open.
Carolina Panthers
Obviously, the Panthers ended last season with a disappointing Super Bowl loss after a 15-1 regular season. Cam Newton is the defending MVP and expectations will be sky high for him again in 2016. However, Carolina is still led by their defense. In what was probably the most surprising move of the offseason, the Panthers let standout cornerback Josh Norman leave. The secondary will not be as good because of that loss, but this team has arguably the best front seven in the game. Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, and Kawann Short are studs, and Star Lotulelei and Kony Ealy are very good as well.
The offense still centers around Newton, but he gets Kelvin Benjamin back on the outside after missing all of last season. Greg Olsen is elite and Jonathan Stewart is solid as well. The combination of the league MVP and an elite defense should be good enough to win this division again this season.
Ceiling: With the return of Benjamin, the offense almost certainly will be better. Losing Norman is tough, but Carolina's defense is so good that I think they can still compensate for it. The Panthers should be thinking Super Bowl or bust.
Floor: After a 15-1 season and a Super Bowl appearance, it is hard to see the floor being very low. If somehow they get hit by a ton of injuries and extreme drop offs from their star players, I think the absolute worst this team could finish is 9-7.
Reality: The leaders of this team are all in the primes of their career, and the time is now for the Panthers. I fully expect them to win the division, and they should probably have a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Therefore, this team should be playing in the NFC Championship game with a chance to go back to the Super Bowl. Anything less than that should be considered a failure.
New Orleans Saints
After Carolina is where this division gets very tough to predict. New Orleans was 7-9 last year thanks to what was an absolutely atrocious defense. The Saints ranked dead last in the NFL in scoring defense, and second to last in rushing, passing, and total defense. I don't care how good Drew Brees is, it is pretty much impossible to overcome a defense as bad as that. The Saints did address a few problems on defense via free agency and the draft, but I am not sure it was enough. I don't know if there is a stat that tracks how many points are scored over the course of a season in each individual season, but if you go to the Superdome in New Orleans this year, you are almost guaranteed to see a whole lot of points no matter who the Saints are playing.
Ceiling: Brees is a quarterback that is good enough to turn any target into a star, and guys like Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks should be the beneficiaries of that ability in 2016. The defense was dead last in the NFL last season, allowing just under 30 points per game. If they are able to cut that down by even five points, this team can be good enough to win enough shootouts to at least be in playoff contention. If that happens, I think the Saints could at least make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Will they win a game when they reach the postseason though? No, I don't think they can.
Floor: Barring any sort of injury to Brees, the Saints are going to score a lot of points. However, if the defense continues to give up even more points, New Orleans could be in for a tough year. They have gone 7-9 in three of the past four seasons. If they get zero breaks at all and the defense stinks, I think at worst the Saints go 6-10.
Reality: I think the floor is closer to the reality here than the ceiling. New Orleans has been a mediocre team in recent years because of their inability to stop anyone, and I really don't think they did enough to change that. I see the Saints going anywhere between 9-7 and 7-9 and on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In my opinion, this will be one of the most intriguing teams to watch in the entire league in 2016. Tampa Bay went 2-14 in 2014, drafted Jameis Winston, went 6-10 in 2015, and I think they could certainly surpass that win total by more than a few games this season. In terms of total yards, Tampa Bay was fourth in the NFC on offense last year and third in the NFC on defense. They made multiple nice additions on the defensive side of ball via both the draft and free agency, and they have guys with a ton of potential on offense, and that begins with Winston. Every time I see him play and hear him talk, I am extremely impressed by what I see, and I think he certainly has the potential to eventually blossom into one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
A lot of what I like about this team is based on potential talent and future projections, but I think fans in Tampa Bay definitely have many reasons to be optimistic about where this team can go.
Ceiling: It starts here with Winston. He had a pretty good rookie season, and with weapons like Doug Martin, Mike Evans, and Vincent Jackson, this offense could definitely be explosive. The key on that side of the ball will be the offensive line though and whether or not they are able to give Winston time to utilize those targets. If that does happen and a defense that looks pretty good on paper can meet those expectations on the field, I think that 10-6 and a playoff berth is definitely possible.
Floor: The development of young players here is the key. Now that other teams have a year of tape to study on Winston, he will need to get better. The offensive line could also potentially be a big problem. If the young players do not develop as quickly as the front office might like, Tampa Bay could finish last in this division with a record of 6-10 or 5-11.
Reality: Like I said, I really like the potential of this team, and I think the arrow is pointed up. It may not all come together in 2016, but with another year of experience under their belts, as long as they avoid injury, I like the way this team is shaping up. I doubt Tampa Bay will make the playoffs, but I think they should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-8. The last time the Bucs finished over .500 was 2010. Maybe they won't get there in 2016, but they should at least be close.
Atlanta Falcons
There is always discussions in the NFL during the offseason about player rankings potential and all kinds of stuff like that. For the most part, it is to fill the time, but sometimes it is a full dose of truth. People always like to rank quarterbacks and debate legacies. There is the elite class of quarterbacks, there are teams with huge quarterback problems, and then there are those guys in the middle. It seems like Matt Ryan has firmly established himself as one of those guys in the middle. Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford. These guys are all in the same class. They can put up big numbers in the regular season, but once January rolls around, you aren't going to see them for very long.
Julio Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Devonta Freeman had a breakout season (although his production did taper off at the end of the year). Yet Matt Ryan is still the same guy we have grown to know him as. Sometimes he is good, sometimes he is bad, and in the end, he seems to always come up short when the chips are down and the games mean the most.
As is the case with all of those "middle class" quarterbacks, I need to see it from Ryan before I believe it. Until that happens, my expectations will only be mediocrity. What do I have to base those expectations on? Ryan's entire career, that's what.
Ceiling: Over the past five seasons, the Falcons have been as good as 13-3 and as bad as 4-12. This wild inconsistency is exactly what I have learned to expect from them, and it what all of us should be familiar with now. I don't think they will go 13-3, but I think that if things go their way, they could be looking at 10-6 and a playoff berth. Once they get there though, I'm sorry, I just do not see them winning a game in the postseason.
Floor: Coming off an 8-8 season, I do think Atlanta has enough to stay in the race for the NFC South long enough to remain relevant. However, I think they could definitely be looking at something like 5-11 if their roster does not live up to its expectations.
Reality: There is no disputing it. The Falcons are a mediocre team. I think at best this team challenges for a playoff berth, but in reality, this is most likely a middle of the pack team. What does that mean? 8-8.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: It is too bad that the Diamondbacks can't play the Mets all the time. After a 13-5 win last night, Arizona has now taken five of six from the Mets in the past week. The next 11 games are against the Padres, Braves, and Reds, all of whom are having very tough seasons. Maybe a nice stretch of wins? Maybe? Possibly? Please, hopefully???
Daily Giants Update: The next preseason game will be this Saturday against Buffalo. After getting the first preseason game off and allowing us to see how bad Ryan Nassib really is, Eli Manning will be on the field to start. Hopefully the starting defensive unit can improve upon a pretty nice performance last weekend. The offensive line still needs a lot of work, and I am almost at the point of no return when it comes to Bobby Rainey returning kicks. Health is always the biggest thing to worry about in preseason games, and my main concern will be everyone finishing the game unscathed.
The NFC South is an interesting division. It has been known for teams going from bad to good over short periods of time, and it is led by the defending NFC Champion Carolina Panthers. Carolina should be at the top again this season, but after that, I think it is definitely wide open.
Carolina Panthers
Obviously, the Panthers ended last season with a disappointing Super Bowl loss after a 15-1 regular season. Cam Newton is the defending MVP and expectations will be sky high for him again in 2016. However, Carolina is still led by their defense. In what was probably the most surprising move of the offseason, the Panthers let standout cornerback Josh Norman leave. The secondary will not be as good because of that loss, but this team has arguably the best front seven in the game. Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, and Kawann Short are studs, and Star Lotulelei and Kony Ealy are very good as well.
The offense still centers around Newton, but he gets Kelvin Benjamin back on the outside after missing all of last season. Greg Olsen is elite and Jonathan Stewart is solid as well. The combination of the league MVP and an elite defense should be good enough to win this division again this season.
Ceiling: With the return of Benjamin, the offense almost certainly will be better. Losing Norman is tough, but Carolina's defense is so good that I think they can still compensate for it. The Panthers should be thinking Super Bowl or bust.
Floor: After a 15-1 season and a Super Bowl appearance, it is hard to see the floor being very low. If somehow they get hit by a ton of injuries and extreme drop offs from their star players, I think the absolute worst this team could finish is 9-7.
Reality: The leaders of this team are all in the primes of their career, and the time is now for the Panthers. I fully expect them to win the division, and they should probably have a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Therefore, this team should be playing in the NFC Championship game with a chance to go back to the Super Bowl. Anything less than that should be considered a failure.
New Orleans Saints
After Carolina is where this division gets very tough to predict. New Orleans was 7-9 last year thanks to what was an absolutely atrocious defense. The Saints ranked dead last in the NFL in scoring defense, and second to last in rushing, passing, and total defense. I don't care how good Drew Brees is, it is pretty much impossible to overcome a defense as bad as that. The Saints did address a few problems on defense via free agency and the draft, but I am not sure it was enough. I don't know if there is a stat that tracks how many points are scored over the course of a season in each individual season, but if you go to the Superdome in New Orleans this year, you are almost guaranteed to see a whole lot of points no matter who the Saints are playing.
Ceiling: Brees is a quarterback that is good enough to turn any target into a star, and guys like Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks should be the beneficiaries of that ability in 2016. The defense was dead last in the NFL last season, allowing just under 30 points per game. If they are able to cut that down by even five points, this team can be good enough to win enough shootouts to at least be in playoff contention. If that happens, I think the Saints could at least make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Will they win a game when they reach the postseason though? No, I don't think they can.
Floor: Barring any sort of injury to Brees, the Saints are going to score a lot of points. However, if the defense continues to give up even more points, New Orleans could be in for a tough year. They have gone 7-9 in three of the past four seasons. If they get zero breaks at all and the defense stinks, I think at worst the Saints go 6-10.
Reality: I think the floor is closer to the reality here than the ceiling. New Orleans has been a mediocre team in recent years because of their inability to stop anyone, and I really don't think they did enough to change that. I see the Saints going anywhere between 9-7 and 7-9 and on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In my opinion, this will be one of the most intriguing teams to watch in the entire league in 2016. Tampa Bay went 2-14 in 2014, drafted Jameis Winston, went 6-10 in 2015, and I think they could certainly surpass that win total by more than a few games this season. In terms of total yards, Tampa Bay was fourth in the NFC on offense last year and third in the NFC on defense. They made multiple nice additions on the defensive side of ball via both the draft and free agency, and they have guys with a ton of potential on offense, and that begins with Winston. Every time I see him play and hear him talk, I am extremely impressed by what I see, and I think he certainly has the potential to eventually blossom into one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
A lot of what I like about this team is based on potential talent and future projections, but I think fans in Tampa Bay definitely have many reasons to be optimistic about where this team can go.
Ceiling: It starts here with Winston. He had a pretty good rookie season, and with weapons like Doug Martin, Mike Evans, and Vincent Jackson, this offense could definitely be explosive. The key on that side of the ball will be the offensive line though and whether or not they are able to give Winston time to utilize those targets. If that does happen and a defense that looks pretty good on paper can meet those expectations on the field, I think that 10-6 and a playoff berth is definitely possible.
Floor: The development of young players here is the key. Now that other teams have a year of tape to study on Winston, he will need to get better. The offensive line could also potentially be a big problem. If the young players do not develop as quickly as the front office might like, Tampa Bay could finish last in this division with a record of 6-10 or 5-11.
Reality: Like I said, I really like the potential of this team, and I think the arrow is pointed up. It may not all come together in 2016, but with another year of experience under their belts, as long as they avoid injury, I like the way this team is shaping up. I doubt Tampa Bay will make the playoffs, but I think they should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-8. The last time the Bucs finished over .500 was 2010. Maybe they won't get there in 2016, but they should at least be close.
Atlanta Falcons
There is always discussions in the NFL during the offseason about player rankings potential and all kinds of stuff like that. For the most part, it is to fill the time, but sometimes it is a full dose of truth. People always like to rank quarterbacks and debate legacies. There is the elite class of quarterbacks, there are teams with huge quarterback problems, and then there are those guys in the middle. It seems like Matt Ryan has firmly established himself as one of those guys in the middle. Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford. These guys are all in the same class. They can put up big numbers in the regular season, but once January rolls around, you aren't going to see them for very long.
Julio Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Devonta Freeman had a breakout season (although his production did taper off at the end of the year). Yet Matt Ryan is still the same guy we have grown to know him as. Sometimes he is good, sometimes he is bad, and in the end, he seems to always come up short when the chips are down and the games mean the most.
As is the case with all of those "middle class" quarterbacks, I need to see it from Ryan before I believe it. Until that happens, my expectations will only be mediocrity. What do I have to base those expectations on? Ryan's entire career, that's what.
Ceiling: Over the past five seasons, the Falcons have been as good as 13-3 and as bad as 4-12. This wild inconsistency is exactly what I have learned to expect from them, and it what all of us should be familiar with now. I don't think they will go 13-3, but I think that if things go their way, they could be looking at 10-6 and a playoff berth. Once they get there though, I'm sorry, I just do not see them winning a game in the postseason.
Floor: Coming off an 8-8 season, I do think Atlanta has enough to stay in the race for the NFC South long enough to remain relevant. However, I think they could definitely be looking at something like 5-11 if their roster does not live up to its expectations.
Reality: There is no disputing it. The Falcons are a mediocre team. I think at best this team challenges for a playoff berth, but in reality, this is most likely a middle of the pack team. What does that mean? 8-8.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: It is too bad that the Diamondbacks can't play the Mets all the time. After a 13-5 win last night, Arizona has now taken five of six from the Mets in the past week. The next 11 games are against the Padres, Braves, and Reds, all of whom are having very tough seasons. Maybe a nice stretch of wins? Maybe? Possibly? Please, hopefully???
Daily Giants Update: The next preseason game will be this Saturday against Buffalo. After getting the first preseason game off and allowing us to see how bad Ryan Nassib really is, Eli Manning will be on the field to start. Hopefully the starting defensive unit can improve upon a pretty nice performance last weekend. The offensive line still needs a lot of work, and I am almost at the point of no return when it comes to Bobby Rainey returning kicks. Health is always the biggest thing to worry about in preseason games, and my main concern will be everyone finishing the game unscathed.
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
NFL Predictions Continued
Five divisions down, and three to go...
NFC North
The Vikings won this division in somewhat of a surprise last season, but they followed that up with an improbable loss on a missed field goal to Seattle in the playoffs. The Packers were eliminated in overtime by Arizona in the Divisional round of the playoffs, and I do think it is reasonable to expect that two teams come out of this division to make the playoffs again in 2016.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay lost Jordy Nelson in the preseason last year, and that was a huge blow before the regular season even began. Aaron Rodgers had a down year (by his extremely lofty standards), and the defense actually was better than the offense in many facets of the game in 2015. Despite having arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, the Packers ranked 23rd in the league in total offense and 25th in passing. However, they still did go 10-6 and win a playoff game. With Nelson back, the offense should certainly improve in 2016.
Everyone loves to bang on Eddie Lacy for being overweight last year, but supposedly he is in better shape heading into this season, so with him and James Starks, as well as a pretty formidable offensive line, the running game could improve as well. Also, Aaron Rodgers is one of the top QB's in the game and he alone could win more than a few games for Green Bay.
The defense did lose a few pieces, but outside of Seattle, the Packers might have the best tandem of safeties in the NFL, and they took a defensive tackle in the first round of the draft. Mason Crosby is one of the best kickers in the league.
Rodgers and Nelson alone means this offense will be very good, and I surely expect Green Bay to be back in the playoffs this season.
Ceiling: I'm not sure that this is a Super Bowl caliber team, but they definitely are near the top of the NFC. Green Bay should certainly be playing into January, and it would not surprise me to see them playing in the NFC Championship game.
Floor: Nelson's injury crippled this team before the 2015 season even started, but he is ready to go for 2016. If Minnesota continues to improve and somehow the Bears win 9 or 10 games, maybe Green Bay misses the playoffs, but I find it hard to believe that they will be 9-7 at the worst.
Reality: Green Bay should be thinking Super Bowl. I don't think they will get there, but if they get a few breaks and stay healthy, I think they have a chance. They played into the second round of the playoffs last year, and with Rodgers getting his favorite target back, they should do that again in 2016. I think it is reasonable to expect to see the Packers in the NFC Championship game.
Minnesota Vikings
Coming off a surprising division title, hopes are high in Minnesota. Teddy Bridgewater is developing into a pretty good quarterback, and Adrian Peterson just keeps on going despite his age and a recent knee injury. You can see how much the offense depended on Peterson by looking at the numbers from 2015. Minnesota had the fourth best running game in the NFL, but their passing attack ranked 31st. They tried to address that by taking a wide receiver with their first draft pick. Kyle Rudolph is also a nice security blanket at tight end. The defense has above average players at all three levels, and getting cornerback Mackensie Alexander in the second round could end up being a steal. Despite his unbelievable missed field goal that ended Minnesota's season, he is still a very good kicker.
Ceiling: Minnesota should have been playing in the Divisional round last season, but Walsh's improbable miss ended their season in hugely disappointing fashion. I think it is reasonable to think that this team wins one playoff game this season, but anything past that would surprise me.
Floor: Age has to catch up to Peterson at some point, but he has continued to defy the hands of time to this point. If he loses a step, it might put too much pressure on the shoulders of Teddy Bridgewater, who still has a mediocre group of receivers to throw to. I don't think that Minnesota could be worse than the Lions, but if they have a down year, I think this might be a 6-10 team.
Reality: Minnesota was probably the biggest surprise in terms of playoff teams last season. They proved that they were good enough to win the division, and they should have beaten Seattle. They went 11-5 last year, but I find it hard to believe they will be able to match that in 2016. I think this should be a team that goes 9-7 or at best, 10-6.
Chicago Bears
The Bears are tough to figure out. They added a few nice pieces via free agency, and while they did lose some key cogs from last year, guys like Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett are getting up there in age. Alshon Jeffery has begun to establish himself as a top flight wideout, and Kevin White is healthy after missing all of his rookie season because of injury. If he is able to become what many thought he could coming out of college, Chicago could have a nice group of wide receivers. There are some question marks on defense, but adding Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman and drafting Leonard Floyd should really strengthen their linebacking corps.
The main concern here, as has always been the case, is Jay Cutler. The story about his arm strength and potential is one that has seemingly closed years ago, and he has proven that he is not much more than a slightly above average quarterback. Could that change? Maybe. Do I expect it to? No.
Ceiling: If the skill players on the offensive side of the ball put it all together and a defense that is full of new but unfamiliar faces is able to gel, maybe this team has a shot at a playoff berth. With Jay Cutler at the helm though, I just find it hard to believe they will be playing into January.
Floor: Chicago should be at least better than Detroit, but they have a lot of new faces on both side of the ball, and that might be a problem if the new guys can't put it together at once. Chicago went 5-11 in 2014 and 6-10 in 2015. If each and every piece does not fall into place with them, and they do not get help by Green Bay and Minnesota not meeting expectations, Chicago should be a team that equals one of those records.
Reality: Adding Floyd, Trevathan, Freeman, and a healthy White are all significant upgrades. However, like I said before, this team is still led by Jay Cutler, and his time is just about up as far as any sort of playoff aspirations. I think Chicago should be looking at 6-10 this season.
Detroit Lions
When the man who was, in my opinion, the second best player in the history of this franchise decided to unexpectedly retire (Calvin Johnson), things immediately looked bleak in Detroit. With him and Matthew Stafford, the team was always known as good at least on the offensive side of the ball. The problem is, the offense was not exactly stellar on that side of the ball in 2015, and it doesn't seem like they will get any better in 2016. Detroit was dead last in the entire NFL in rushing last season, and they go into this year with the same group of backs. Losing Johnson will obviously hurt the passing game.
The defense was mediocre at best last season, and it does not seem like it will be much better this year. In a division with Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson, I think teams will be looking forward to playing the Lions in 2016.
Ceiling: The best this team can do is stay out of the basement of the NFC North. The running game has nowhere to go but up, but the passing attack was crippled by Johnson's retirement. The front seven on defense is not bad, but the secondary is below average, at best. Aside from facing Aaron Rodgers twice, Minnesota will also have to face Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, and Andrew Luck. Detroit was 7-9 last season. If they somehow reach that mark again in 2016, Lions fans should be extremely happy.
Floor: With a questionable secondary, a bad running game, and an receiving corps that is far from intimidating, the Lions could certainly be looking at something like 5-11 or 4-12.
Reality: It is going to be tough for this team to stay out of last place in the NFC North. They will most likely be closer to 4-12 than 7-9, and I would not be surprised at all to see Detroit drafting in the top ten in April of 2017.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: After a sweep of the defending National League champion New York Mets, Arizona followed that up with a terrible series in Boston that included a 16-2 thrashing that saw Zack Greinke unable to make it out of the second inning. Greinke has not lived up to expectations and Shelby Miller has been playing in the minor leagues for about a month now. The offseason moves are not exactly working out so far, and Arizona remains in last place in the division.
Daily Giants Update: News out of camp is that Victor Cruz will miss a few days because of an injury. I gave up on Cruz ever playing a regular season game again for the team, and this is just another example of why I did that. I did see some nice things in the first preseason game last week from guys like Olivier Vernon, Sterling Shepard, and Eli Apple though, so that is a good sign. There is still just under a month until the regular season begins though, and a lot can change from now and September 11th.
NFC North
The Vikings won this division in somewhat of a surprise last season, but they followed that up with an improbable loss on a missed field goal to Seattle in the playoffs. The Packers were eliminated in overtime by Arizona in the Divisional round of the playoffs, and I do think it is reasonable to expect that two teams come out of this division to make the playoffs again in 2016.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay lost Jordy Nelson in the preseason last year, and that was a huge blow before the regular season even began. Aaron Rodgers had a down year (by his extremely lofty standards), and the defense actually was better than the offense in many facets of the game in 2015. Despite having arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, the Packers ranked 23rd in the league in total offense and 25th in passing. However, they still did go 10-6 and win a playoff game. With Nelson back, the offense should certainly improve in 2016.
Everyone loves to bang on Eddie Lacy for being overweight last year, but supposedly he is in better shape heading into this season, so with him and James Starks, as well as a pretty formidable offensive line, the running game could improve as well. Also, Aaron Rodgers is one of the top QB's in the game and he alone could win more than a few games for Green Bay.
The defense did lose a few pieces, but outside of Seattle, the Packers might have the best tandem of safeties in the NFL, and they took a defensive tackle in the first round of the draft. Mason Crosby is one of the best kickers in the league.
Rodgers and Nelson alone means this offense will be very good, and I surely expect Green Bay to be back in the playoffs this season.
Ceiling: I'm not sure that this is a Super Bowl caliber team, but they definitely are near the top of the NFC. Green Bay should certainly be playing into January, and it would not surprise me to see them playing in the NFC Championship game.
Floor: Nelson's injury crippled this team before the 2015 season even started, but he is ready to go for 2016. If Minnesota continues to improve and somehow the Bears win 9 or 10 games, maybe Green Bay misses the playoffs, but I find it hard to believe that they will be 9-7 at the worst.
Reality: Green Bay should be thinking Super Bowl. I don't think they will get there, but if they get a few breaks and stay healthy, I think they have a chance. They played into the second round of the playoffs last year, and with Rodgers getting his favorite target back, they should do that again in 2016. I think it is reasonable to expect to see the Packers in the NFC Championship game.
Minnesota Vikings
Coming off a surprising division title, hopes are high in Minnesota. Teddy Bridgewater is developing into a pretty good quarterback, and Adrian Peterson just keeps on going despite his age and a recent knee injury. You can see how much the offense depended on Peterson by looking at the numbers from 2015. Minnesota had the fourth best running game in the NFL, but their passing attack ranked 31st. They tried to address that by taking a wide receiver with their first draft pick. Kyle Rudolph is also a nice security blanket at tight end. The defense has above average players at all three levels, and getting cornerback Mackensie Alexander in the second round could end up being a steal. Despite his unbelievable missed field goal that ended Minnesota's season, he is still a very good kicker.
Ceiling: Minnesota should have been playing in the Divisional round last season, but Walsh's improbable miss ended their season in hugely disappointing fashion. I think it is reasonable to think that this team wins one playoff game this season, but anything past that would surprise me.
Floor: Age has to catch up to Peterson at some point, but he has continued to defy the hands of time to this point. If he loses a step, it might put too much pressure on the shoulders of Teddy Bridgewater, who still has a mediocre group of receivers to throw to. I don't think that Minnesota could be worse than the Lions, but if they have a down year, I think this might be a 6-10 team.
Reality: Minnesota was probably the biggest surprise in terms of playoff teams last season. They proved that they were good enough to win the division, and they should have beaten Seattle. They went 11-5 last year, but I find it hard to believe they will be able to match that in 2016. I think this should be a team that goes 9-7 or at best, 10-6.
Chicago Bears
The Bears are tough to figure out. They added a few nice pieces via free agency, and while they did lose some key cogs from last year, guys like Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett are getting up there in age. Alshon Jeffery has begun to establish himself as a top flight wideout, and Kevin White is healthy after missing all of his rookie season because of injury. If he is able to become what many thought he could coming out of college, Chicago could have a nice group of wide receivers. There are some question marks on defense, but adding Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman and drafting Leonard Floyd should really strengthen their linebacking corps.
The main concern here, as has always been the case, is Jay Cutler. The story about his arm strength and potential is one that has seemingly closed years ago, and he has proven that he is not much more than a slightly above average quarterback. Could that change? Maybe. Do I expect it to? No.
Ceiling: If the skill players on the offensive side of the ball put it all together and a defense that is full of new but unfamiliar faces is able to gel, maybe this team has a shot at a playoff berth. With Jay Cutler at the helm though, I just find it hard to believe they will be playing into January.
Floor: Chicago should be at least better than Detroit, but they have a lot of new faces on both side of the ball, and that might be a problem if the new guys can't put it together at once. Chicago went 5-11 in 2014 and 6-10 in 2015. If each and every piece does not fall into place with them, and they do not get help by Green Bay and Minnesota not meeting expectations, Chicago should be a team that equals one of those records.
Reality: Adding Floyd, Trevathan, Freeman, and a healthy White are all significant upgrades. However, like I said before, this team is still led by Jay Cutler, and his time is just about up as far as any sort of playoff aspirations. I think Chicago should be looking at 6-10 this season.
Detroit Lions
When the man who was, in my opinion, the second best player in the history of this franchise decided to unexpectedly retire (Calvin Johnson), things immediately looked bleak in Detroit. With him and Matthew Stafford, the team was always known as good at least on the offensive side of the ball. The problem is, the offense was not exactly stellar on that side of the ball in 2015, and it doesn't seem like they will get any better in 2016. Detroit was dead last in the entire NFL in rushing last season, and they go into this year with the same group of backs. Losing Johnson will obviously hurt the passing game.
The defense was mediocre at best last season, and it does not seem like it will be much better this year. In a division with Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson, I think teams will be looking forward to playing the Lions in 2016.
Ceiling: The best this team can do is stay out of the basement of the NFC North. The running game has nowhere to go but up, but the passing attack was crippled by Johnson's retirement. The front seven on defense is not bad, but the secondary is below average, at best. Aside from facing Aaron Rodgers twice, Minnesota will also have to face Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, and Andrew Luck. Detroit was 7-9 last season. If they somehow reach that mark again in 2016, Lions fans should be extremely happy.
Floor: With a questionable secondary, a bad running game, and an receiving corps that is far from intimidating, the Lions could certainly be looking at something like 5-11 or 4-12.
Reality: It is going to be tough for this team to stay out of last place in the NFC North. They will most likely be closer to 4-12 than 7-9, and I would not be surprised at all to see Detroit drafting in the top ten in April of 2017.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: After a sweep of the defending National League champion New York Mets, Arizona followed that up with a terrible series in Boston that included a 16-2 thrashing that saw Zack Greinke unable to make it out of the second inning. Greinke has not lived up to expectations and Shelby Miller has been playing in the minor leagues for about a month now. The offseason moves are not exactly working out so far, and Arizona remains in last place in the division.
Daily Giants Update: News out of camp is that Victor Cruz will miss a few days because of an injury. I gave up on Cruz ever playing a regular season game again for the team, and this is just another example of why I did that. I did see some nice things in the first preseason game last week from guys like Olivier Vernon, Sterling Shepard, and Eli Apple though, so that is a good sign. There is still just under a month until the regular season begins though, and a lot can change from now and September 11th.
Saturday, August 6, 2016
NFL Predictions: Part Four
With my AFC predictions now done, it is time to focus on the NFC. The Panthers ruled the conference last season, going 15-1 before losing in the Super Bowl. Carolina should be very good again this year, but there are some other very good teams near the top.
NFC East
First off, I am going to recuse myself here from predicting how the Giants will finish. It is definitely because I watch them every week, but they are almost guaranteed to be an impossible team to forecast. It is tough enough to predict how they will look from play to play, let alone the entire season. So, I am not going to preview them here.
In all honesty though, this division is very much up for grabs and is probably the toughest to predict in all of the NFC. Washington won the division last season at 9-7, and they added a few good pieces over the offseason, so I think Redskins fans can be optimistic about their outlook for 2016.
Washington Redskins
The defending division champions return mostly intact, but some key additions will help them in 2016. With Robert Griffin III gone, Kirk Cousins is now fully entrenched as the starting quarterback, and he has proven that he is good enough to lead this team to the postseason. Cousins will also be aided by a very good receiving corps featuring DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed, and an exciting young rookie in first round pick Josh Doctson. In a division full of mediocre secondaries, the Redskins passing attack could be very, very good.
One of the biggest moves of the entire offseason was Josh Norman going to Washington, and we will get to see him go up against two of the best receivers in the NFL, Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham, twice each this year. The rest of the defensive unit is getting a bit old, but they still should be good enough to get the job done in a division that will likely feature a ton of offense and not too much defense.
Ceiling: If the defense is able to stay healthy and be a unit that bends but doesn't break, I think Washington can definitely win the NFC East. Now that Cousins is the unquestioned leader of the offense, I think he could potentially be near the top of the NFL in multiple passing categories. If all of that happens, this team could definitely make the playoffs, but I do think it is very unlikely that they win a game once they get there.
Floor: Like I said, there are going to be a lot of points scored in this division, and Washington does have serious questions at multiple spots on defense. This is going to get boring since this division is so wide open, but I think any of the four teams in the NFC East could potentially finish anywhere between first and last. That means if the Redskins are unable to score enough to keep up, I think something like 5-11 is possible.
Reality: This is a pretty good team. They have superstar names, but they also have huge question marks. 9-7 has been good enough to win this division in recent years, and I think that they should be around 8-8, so they should be in contention here once December rolls around.
Dallas Cowboys
As much as I hate to admit it, the Cowboys are probably the best team on paper in this division. However, the Cowboys have been the best team on paper in this division for a while now, and that has resulted in a record of 40-40 and only one playoff berth over the past five seasons. So, we see that looking good on paper does not exactly equal looking good on the field. It has been a long time since the end result has equaled the preseason hype in Dallas, as they seem to invent new ways to disappoint their fans year in and year out.
Usually the Cowboys at least wait until the season starts to disappoint, but this year they are flying out of the gate before the preseason even starts. DeMarcus Lawrence has already been suspended, backup quarterback Kellen Moore is already done for the season, and we may never see Randy Gregory or Rolando McClain ever play in the NFL again as they have both also been suspended.
However, with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott in the draft, this offense could potentially be one of the best in the NFL. Elliott has all the makings of a superstar back, Dez Bryant is one of the best receivers in the game, Jason Witten is a future Hall of Famer (and an absolute Giant killer), the offensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, and Tony Romo, when healthy, is an elite quarterback.
Ceiling: There are a ton of conditions here because we are talking about the Dallas Cowboys, but if this is actually a season that sees everyone stay healthy, this offense is good enough to win most of the probable shootouts we will see in the division and make the playoffs. If that does happen, I think Dallas could possibly win one playoff game, but there are too many teams in the NFC that are much more well-rounded than Dallas, so I think one playoff win is the best they can hope for.
Floor: Tony Romo and Sean Lee have not gotten hurt yet, but the chances of both of them playing 16 games is close to zero. They have already lost Romo's insurance plan with Kellen Moore's injury, and the defense has already been ravaged by suspensions. The negatives have outweighed the positives already this offseason, and while I do not think Dallas will be picking fourth overall in the draft next year, I do think they could be picking in the top ten.
Reality: With the suspensions and injuries already happening, I think Dallas is going into the season with a very big load on its shoulders before the games even start. I do think they are good enough to avoid the basement in the division, but just like the rest of the teams here, I think this team will hover around 8-8.
Philadelphia Eagles
At first I had the Eagles clearly pegged in last place in this division, but that might not be the case. The biggest question here is definitely at quarterback, where Sam Bradford made himself look absolutely horrible this offseason by signing a huge contract and then complaining that he would actually have to compete for his job with rookie Carson Wentz. Bradford has been the definition of mediocrity for his entire career, and with the way he responded to the team drafting Wentz, I am sure that the classless fans in Philadelphia will be all over him the minute he throws his first interception. And with the selfish and bad attitude he has displayed over the past few months, I will feel zero sympathy for him if, and more likely when, that happens.
With that said, I do think that the Eagles have some talented players on both sides of the ball. The offensive line should be pretty good, and they do have some young and talented receivers. In Fletcher Cox, Mychal Kendricks, and Malcolm Jenkins, the Eagles do have at least one very good player at each level on defense, so that unit could be good enough to at least hold serve in this division.
Ceiling: If the quarterback position sorts itself out and the defense is able to be the best in a division full of bad defenses, Philadelphia could win the division.
Floor: If Bradford comes out of the gate a mess and the backups behind center are not ready yet, no matter how good the defense might be, the Eagles will not be able to score enough to win the NFC East. Because the division is mediocre at best, I can't see them finishing any worse than 5-11, but if they cannot get the quarterback situation sorted out, I could definitely see the Eagles finishing last in the division.
Reality: This sounds repetitive, but Philadelphia should finish somewhere around 8-8. It is tough to see anyone in this division winning more than 10 games, and I am not sold that the Eagles can reach that level. As is always the case in the NFC East of recent years, anywhere around 8-8 is likely.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: The Diamondbacks literally "walked off" last night as Welington Castillo drew a bases loaded walk to win the game. It was a positive blip on what has been a negative radar in 2016. If the team can win tonight, they could possibly move up to 13th in the National League.
Daily Giants Update: The team signed cornerback Leon Hall yesterday, and while his prime years are behind him, at this point the Giants need as much help as they can get in the secondary, so the more bodies the better. All is well on the injury front too, so that is always good.
NFC East
First off, I am going to recuse myself here from predicting how the Giants will finish. It is definitely because I watch them every week, but they are almost guaranteed to be an impossible team to forecast. It is tough enough to predict how they will look from play to play, let alone the entire season. So, I am not going to preview them here.
In all honesty though, this division is very much up for grabs and is probably the toughest to predict in all of the NFC. Washington won the division last season at 9-7, and they added a few good pieces over the offseason, so I think Redskins fans can be optimistic about their outlook for 2016.
Washington Redskins
The defending division champions return mostly intact, but some key additions will help them in 2016. With Robert Griffin III gone, Kirk Cousins is now fully entrenched as the starting quarterback, and he has proven that he is good enough to lead this team to the postseason. Cousins will also be aided by a very good receiving corps featuring DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed, and an exciting young rookie in first round pick Josh Doctson. In a division full of mediocre secondaries, the Redskins passing attack could be very, very good.
One of the biggest moves of the entire offseason was Josh Norman going to Washington, and we will get to see him go up against two of the best receivers in the NFL, Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham, twice each this year. The rest of the defensive unit is getting a bit old, but they still should be good enough to get the job done in a division that will likely feature a ton of offense and not too much defense.
Ceiling: If the defense is able to stay healthy and be a unit that bends but doesn't break, I think Washington can definitely win the NFC East. Now that Cousins is the unquestioned leader of the offense, I think he could potentially be near the top of the NFL in multiple passing categories. If all of that happens, this team could definitely make the playoffs, but I do think it is very unlikely that they win a game once they get there.
Floor: Like I said, there are going to be a lot of points scored in this division, and Washington does have serious questions at multiple spots on defense. This is going to get boring since this division is so wide open, but I think any of the four teams in the NFC East could potentially finish anywhere between first and last. That means if the Redskins are unable to score enough to keep up, I think something like 5-11 is possible.
Reality: This is a pretty good team. They have superstar names, but they also have huge question marks. 9-7 has been good enough to win this division in recent years, and I think that they should be around 8-8, so they should be in contention here once December rolls around.
Dallas Cowboys
As much as I hate to admit it, the Cowboys are probably the best team on paper in this division. However, the Cowboys have been the best team on paper in this division for a while now, and that has resulted in a record of 40-40 and only one playoff berth over the past five seasons. So, we see that looking good on paper does not exactly equal looking good on the field. It has been a long time since the end result has equaled the preseason hype in Dallas, as they seem to invent new ways to disappoint their fans year in and year out.
Usually the Cowboys at least wait until the season starts to disappoint, but this year they are flying out of the gate before the preseason even starts. DeMarcus Lawrence has already been suspended, backup quarterback Kellen Moore is already done for the season, and we may never see Randy Gregory or Rolando McClain ever play in the NFL again as they have both also been suspended.
However, with the addition of Ezekiel Elliott in the draft, this offense could potentially be one of the best in the NFL. Elliott has all the makings of a superstar back, Dez Bryant is one of the best receivers in the game, Jason Witten is a future Hall of Famer (and an absolute Giant killer), the offensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, and Tony Romo, when healthy, is an elite quarterback.
Ceiling: There are a ton of conditions here because we are talking about the Dallas Cowboys, but if this is actually a season that sees everyone stay healthy, this offense is good enough to win most of the probable shootouts we will see in the division and make the playoffs. If that does happen, I think Dallas could possibly win one playoff game, but there are too many teams in the NFC that are much more well-rounded than Dallas, so I think one playoff win is the best they can hope for.
Floor: Tony Romo and Sean Lee have not gotten hurt yet, but the chances of both of them playing 16 games is close to zero. They have already lost Romo's insurance plan with Kellen Moore's injury, and the defense has already been ravaged by suspensions. The negatives have outweighed the positives already this offseason, and while I do not think Dallas will be picking fourth overall in the draft next year, I do think they could be picking in the top ten.
Reality: With the suspensions and injuries already happening, I think Dallas is going into the season with a very big load on its shoulders before the games even start. I do think they are good enough to avoid the basement in the division, but just like the rest of the teams here, I think this team will hover around 8-8.
Philadelphia Eagles
At first I had the Eagles clearly pegged in last place in this division, but that might not be the case. The biggest question here is definitely at quarterback, where Sam Bradford made himself look absolutely horrible this offseason by signing a huge contract and then complaining that he would actually have to compete for his job with rookie Carson Wentz. Bradford has been the definition of mediocrity for his entire career, and with the way he responded to the team drafting Wentz, I am sure that the classless fans in Philadelphia will be all over him the minute he throws his first interception. And with the selfish and bad attitude he has displayed over the past few months, I will feel zero sympathy for him if, and more likely when, that happens.
With that said, I do think that the Eagles have some talented players on both sides of the ball. The offensive line should be pretty good, and they do have some young and talented receivers. In Fletcher Cox, Mychal Kendricks, and Malcolm Jenkins, the Eagles do have at least one very good player at each level on defense, so that unit could be good enough to at least hold serve in this division.
Ceiling: If the quarterback position sorts itself out and the defense is able to be the best in a division full of bad defenses, Philadelphia could win the division.
Floor: If Bradford comes out of the gate a mess and the backups behind center are not ready yet, no matter how good the defense might be, the Eagles will not be able to score enough to win the NFC East. Because the division is mediocre at best, I can't see them finishing any worse than 5-11, but if they cannot get the quarterback situation sorted out, I could definitely see the Eagles finishing last in the division.
Reality: This sounds repetitive, but Philadelphia should finish somewhere around 8-8. It is tough to see anyone in this division winning more than 10 games, and I am not sold that the Eagles can reach that level. As is always the case in the NFC East of recent years, anywhere around 8-8 is likely.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: The Diamondbacks literally "walked off" last night as Welington Castillo drew a bases loaded walk to win the game. It was a positive blip on what has been a negative radar in 2016. If the team can win tonight, they could possibly move up to 13th in the National League.
Daily Giants Update: The team signed cornerback Leon Hall yesterday, and while his prime years are behind him, at this point the Giants need as much help as they can get in the secondary, so the more bodies the better. All is well on the injury front too, so that is always good.
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
Finishing the AFC predictions
With football just getting closer and closer, and my predictions likely to even be worse and worse, next up is the AFC West.
AFC West
Obviously, the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos had the last laugh in this division in 2015, but with the retirement of Peyton Manning and the continuing improvement of other teams, I think this could be a very competitive and interesting division this year. To start, I am unseating the champs.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are coming off a season that saw them win 11 games and run the Houston Texans off the field in their first playoff game. They lost by only a touchdown to the Patriots the following week, and I do think that the potential is there for a similar season.
As has been the case with this team for the past few seasons, the name of the game is an offense that controls the ball and an attacking defense. A big key here on both sides of the ball will be staying healthy, but if they can do that, I think the Chiefs have the personnel to continue to win with that style and win the division.
Ceiling: The defense is the key for Kansas City. They have star players on every level, and this was one of the best defenses in the league last year. I think they could surely match that in 2016. If everyone on the other side of the ball stays healthy, I think this offense could definitely be good enough to score what they need to win the game. This team should be focused on winning the division.
Floor: I find it hard to believe that this defense will be below average, but I do think that the offense could be the downfall here. If a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness hinders the offense, I think the Chiefs might be looking at something like 6-10 or 7-9.
Reality: The strength of this team is clearly the defense. I am not saying that they are a Super Bowl caliber unit, but I do think that they are definitely good enough to lead this team to the playoffs. The Chiefs won a playoff game last season, and I think that is a reasonable expectation again this year. Anything more than that would be a bit of a surprise, but I do think that this team will be playing in January.
Denver Broncos
I have not addressed this since the Super Bowl, but I need to get this off of my chest. The Broncos did not win the Super Bowl last season with some subpar and useless quarterback. I understand that Peyton Manning had the worst statistical season of his career, but I hate to hear people say that this was a Super Bowl champion team that could have just plugged anyone in behind center and won it all. I do not care how bad Manning was by his standards last season. He was still on the field when the games mattered the most in January and February. Any old bum would not have won the Super Bowl. Manning is one of the greatest to ever do it, and his knowledge and presence played a huge part in this team winning the Super Bowl. Do not tell me that the Broncos won despite Peyton Manning. And if you do tell me that, then you do not know what you are talking about.
With that said, his retirement does absolutely play a huge role in what will happen in Denver this year. Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan are gone, but this is still an elite defensive unit. The quarterback situation is unprecedented as far as defending Super Bowl champions goes, and Denver has a huge issue there with a roster full of unproven or average quarterbacks. The defense is still very good, but the success of the 2016 Broncos likely depends on what kind of production they get from the quarterback position.
Ceiling: While the defense did lose some key pieces, this is still one of the best units in the NFL. If they can get the quarterback situation figured out early, then Denver absolutely can be a playoff team. They did lose one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game and a few pieces of their defense though, so while I do not think they can repeat as champions, this team definitely should have playoff aspirations.
Floor: The worst case scenario in Denver is that the quarterback situation becomes a black hole that no one can fill. We know Mark Sanchez is an average QB, and we know pretty much nothing about Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian. If the Broncos have no answer under center and the defense is not up to par, this team will miss the playoffs.
Reality: As is obviously the case, the fortunes of this team are based upon the play of whoever ends up being their starting quarterback. The defense is good enough to get them into January and possibly win one playoff game, but I do not see this team playing past the Divisional Weekend of the postseason.
Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders bandwagon has grown so much over the past few months that it is pretty much out of space. I definitely do like the direction this team is going in, but I am not quite ready to proclaim this team as the up and coming unstoppable force that many feel they are. They do have some studs that the casual fan may not know about (Khalil Mack, Kelechi Osemele, Rodney Hudson), but I am not totally sold on them from top to bottom. At least I am not sold just yet. They have done an excellent job of drafting over the past few seasons, and the 2015 draft class has a chance to be stellar as well.
Some people are crowning this group too early. Have the Raiders improved over the past few years? Yes. Without question. However, from 2012 to 2014 this team went 11-37. A record like that does not make a 180 degree turn in one season. Oakland is getting better, but I am not going to accept the fact that they are going from zero to hero as of today.
Ceiling: If the young players on both sides of the ball continue to develop nicely for Oakland, I do think this team can make the playoffs, although that might be a reach right now. If that somehow does happen, I still find it very hard to believe that they will win a game once they get there.
Floor: This team should be good enough to at least hit 8-8. If somehow they get hit by regression and injuries though, maybe they finish 6-10 at the worst.
Reality: I think Oakland definitely has a shot at 8-8. They went 7-9 last season and on paper they have a better team. It will be tough to compete with Kansas City and Denver at the top of the division, but I think fans in Oakland should be hoping for at least 8-8 and second place in the division.
San Diego Chargers
It seems like the Chargers have been the same team for about a decade now. Some guys might put up pretty nice numbers in the regular season and the team might challenge for the postseason, but that is about as good as it will get. After finishing a mediocre 33-31 from 2011 until 2014, San Diego finished a far from mediocre 4-12 in 2015. That means there is nowhere to go but up. However, I am not sure that journey up will being this season. Philip Rivers has been basically the same guy throughout his entire career, and the team has followed suit. A berth in the playoffs has been nice, but after that has usually been too much to ask.
Ceiling: I think right now that San Diego is definitely the worst team on paper in this division. We know what a lot of these guys are. They have added a few nice pieces over the past few drafts, but I just do not think it is enough. If the Chargers somehow got to 7-9, I think they should consider it a successful season.
Floor: It would be hard to find many people that think this team is going to finish anywhere besides the bottom of the AFC West. They do have enough to at least match their 4-12 record of last season, but I do think it is definitely possible that they might equal it.
Reality: Other than the Browns, I think the best bet for a team to finish last in its division in the AFC is the Chargers. They are simply not as good as the rest of the division, and I really think that they will be looking at something like a 5-11 season and a top ten draft pick in 2017.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: More losses just keep piling up, and they have been less and less competitive over the past few days. It has been a very, very tough month for the team.
AFC West
Obviously, the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos had the last laugh in this division in 2015, but with the retirement of Peyton Manning and the continuing improvement of other teams, I think this could be a very competitive and interesting division this year. To start, I am unseating the champs.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are coming off a season that saw them win 11 games and run the Houston Texans off the field in their first playoff game. They lost by only a touchdown to the Patriots the following week, and I do think that the potential is there for a similar season.
As has been the case with this team for the past few seasons, the name of the game is an offense that controls the ball and an attacking defense. A big key here on both sides of the ball will be staying healthy, but if they can do that, I think the Chiefs have the personnel to continue to win with that style and win the division.
Ceiling: The defense is the key for Kansas City. They have star players on every level, and this was one of the best defenses in the league last year. I think they could surely match that in 2016. If everyone on the other side of the ball stays healthy, I think this offense could definitely be good enough to score what they need to win the game. This team should be focused on winning the division.
Floor: I find it hard to believe that this defense will be below average, but I do think that the offense could be the downfall here. If a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness hinders the offense, I think the Chiefs might be looking at something like 6-10 or 7-9.
Reality: The strength of this team is clearly the defense. I am not saying that they are a Super Bowl caliber unit, but I do think that they are definitely good enough to lead this team to the playoffs. The Chiefs won a playoff game last season, and I think that is a reasonable expectation again this year. Anything more than that would be a bit of a surprise, but I do think that this team will be playing in January.
Denver Broncos
I have not addressed this since the Super Bowl, but I need to get this off of my chest. The Broncos did not win the Super Bowl last season with some subpar and useless quarterback. I understand that Peyton Manning had the worst statistical season of his career, but I hate to hear people say that this was a Super Bowl champion team that could have just plugged anyone in behind center and won it all. I do not care how bad Manning was by his standards last season. He was still on the field when the games mattered the most in January and February. Any old bum would not have won the Super Bowl. Manning is one of the greatest to ever do it, and his knowledge and presence played a huge part in this team winning the Super Bowl. Do not tell me that the Broncos won despite Peyton Manning. And if you do tell me that, then you do not know what you are talking about.
With that said, his retirement does absolutely play a huge role in what will happen in Denver this year. Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan are gone, but this is still an elite defensive unit. The quarterback situation is unprecedented as far as defending Super Bowl champions goes, and Denver has a huge issue there with a roster full of unproven or average quarterbacks. The defense is still very good, but the success of the 2016 Broncos likely depends on what kind of production they get from the quarterback position.
Ceiling: While the defense did lose some key pieces, this is still one of the best units in the NFL. If they can get the quarterback situation figured out early, then Denver absolutely can be a playoff team. They did lose one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game and a few pieces of their defense though, so while I do not think they can repeat as champions, this team definitely should have playoff aspirations.
Floor: The worst case scenario in Denver is that the quarterback situation becomes a black hole that no one can fill. We know Mark Sanchez is an average QB, and we know pretty much nothing about Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian. If the Broncos have no answer under center and the defense is not up to par, this team will miss the playoffs.
Reality: As is obviously the case, the fortunes of this team are based upon the play of whoever ends up being their starting quarterback. The defense is good enough to get them into January and possibly win one playoff game, but I do not see this team playing past the Divisional Weekend of the postseason.
Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders bandwagon has grown so much over the past few months that it is pretty much out of space. I definitely do like the direction this team is going in, but I am not quite ready to proclaim this team as the up and coming unstoppable force that many feel they are. They do have some studs that the casual fan may not know about (Khalil Mack, Kelechi Osemele, Rodney Hudson), but I am not totally sold on them from top to bottom. At least I am not sold just yet. They have done an excellent job of drafting over the past few seasons, and the 2015 draft class has a chance to be stellar as well.
Some people are crowning this group too early. Have the Raiders improved over the past few years? Yes. Without question. However, from 2012 to 2014 this team went 11-37. A record like that does not make a 180 degree turn in one season. Oakland is getting better, but I am not going to accept the fact that they are going from zero to hero as of today.
Ceiling: If the young players on both sides of the ball continue to develop nicely for Oakland, I do think this team can make the playoffs, although that might be a reach right now. If that somehow does happen, I still find it very hard to believe that they will win a game once they get there.
Floor: This team should be good enough to at least hit 8-8. If somehow they get hit by regression and injuries though, maybe they finish 6-10 at the worst.
Reality: I think Oakland definitely has a shot at 8-8. They went 7-9 last season and on paper they have a better team. It will be tough to compete with Kansas City and Denver at the top of the division, but I think fans in Oakland should be hoping for at least 8-8 and second place in the division.
San Diego Chargers
It seems like the Chargers have been the same team for about a decade now. Some guys might put up pretty nice numbers in the regular season and the team might challenge for the postseason, but that is about as good as it will get. After finishing a mediocre 33-31 from 2011 until 2014, San Diego finished a far from mediocre 4-12 in 2015. That means there is nowhere to go but up. However, I am not sure that journey up will being this season. Philip Rivers has been basically the same guy throughout his entire career, and the team has followed suit. A berth in the playoffs has been nice, but after that has usually been too much to ask.
Ceiling: I think right now that San Diego is definitely the worst team on paper in this division. We know what a lot of these guys are. They have added a few nice pieces over the past few drafts, but I just do not think it is enough. If the Chargers somehow got to 7-9, I think they should consider it a successful season.
Floor: It would be hard to find many people that think this team is going to finish anywhere besides the bottom of the AFC West. They do have enough to at least match their 4-12 record of last season, but I do think it is definitely possible that they might equal it.
Reality: Other than the Browns, I think the best bet for a team to finish last in its division in the AFC is the Chargers. They are simply not as good as the rest of the division, and I really think that they will be looking at something like a 5-11 season and a top ten draft pick in 2017.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: More losses just keep piling up, and they have been less and less competitive over the past few days. It has been a very, very tough month for the team.
Monday, August 1, 2016
NFL Predictions, Part Three
So after making my predictions that are sure to be wrong on the AFC East and AFC North, next up is the AFC South. Preseason predictions in the NFL are always tough, but the AFC South is about as tough as it gets this year and you could use either logic or a dartboard and your chances of predicting this division would probably be about the same. There are surely superstars in this division (Andrew Luck and J.J. Watt are at the top of that list), but there are also all types of questions about each team as well. Since there always seems to be at least one division in the NFL each season that sees a surprise winner, I am going to make it this one.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans followed up a 2-14 season in 2014 with a 3-13 season in 2015. So why would I ever pick them to win the AFC South? 50% of me says that it is totally crazy, but the other 50% says it might at least be possible.
Marcus Mariota is coming off a rookie season in which he passed for just under 3,000 yards and threw 19 touchdowns. In elite NFL quarterback terms that is nothing special, but I was a bit surprised by how well he played coming from an offense in college that was nothing like an NFL offense. The Titans lacked a true threat in the backfield, but they addressed that this offseason by signing DeMarco Murray. It is no secret that he was completely mishandled in Philadelphia, and while he may not lead the league in rushing like he did in Dallas, I do think he will be much more effective with the Titans this season. Mariota is also a very capable runner himself, and Tennessee does have a good offensive line. And what else did Tennessee add to their backfield? Oh that's right, Derrick Henry, the Heisman Trophy winner. With Mariota, Henry, and Murray, the Titans have a dangerous rushing attack. Add Delanie Walker to that mix at tight end, and I think Mariota has some pieces around him to be successful.
The defense is relatively strong and it is led by Jurrell Casey up front. Linebacker is a question mark, but Tennessee's secondary is not too bad. Like I said, I am going out on a limb here, but Tennessee is definitely improving.
Ceiling: These possibilities are going to get repetitive in this division. I do like some things that the Titans are doing, and I think it could be possible that they win the division. If that does actually happen though, I think that is as good as it will get. They are still not on the level of the elite teams in the AFC and will not win a playoff game.
Floor: The floor is last place. It is quite a difference from the ceiling, but like I said, this division is the textbook definition of wide open. At worst, I think Tennessee is drafting in the top ten in 2017.
Reality: It is a bit of a reach to pick the Titans to win this division, but in all reality, I think that the winner of this division could surely finish at 9-7. Is that possible for Tennessee? Yes. Is it probable? No. However, for the sake of my prediction, I will say they go 9-7.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were on the upswing after Andrew Luck proved himself to be a top level NFL quarterback, but they regressed last year and finished at 8-8. Having Luck alone gives them an advantage over the rest of the division, as he is clearly the best quarterback, but they have a ton of question marks as well.
T.Y. Hilton is elite and Donte Moncrief is an up and coming talent on the outside, but I don't think Frank Gore can handle a full season as a starting running back, and that means that Andrew Luck is going to have a lot of pressure on his shoulders. He can handle it, but he is prone to turnovers and does take a lot of punishment. Not having a running game is not a recipe for success with Luck as your quarterback. The defense was bad last year, and there are a lot of aging players on that side of the ball, so I think that will only add to the already heavy load on Luck's shoulders.
Ceiling: This team definitely could win the division. They won 11 games in three consecutive seasons after falling to 8-8 last year, so maybe that was just an outlier. However, just like every other team in the AFC South, there are questions. I think 10-6 is the best that fans in Indianapolis could expect.
Floor: Since Luck does take a beating quite a bit, the worst case scenario is that he gets hurt. If that happens, then this team has no shot to even sniff a playoff berth. I do not expect that though. In a division full of mediocre teams, I still think the Colts have enough to finish 6-10 at worst.
Reality: Like I said, the Colts have the talent to win this division. I would not be surprised if that happens. I expect them to finish at 8-8 or 9-7, but I think they will be hard-pressed to win a playoff game.
Houston Texans
Houston won the division last year at 9-7 but were blown off the field by Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs. The question with the Texans has always been the play at quarterback, and Houston spent a whole lot of money to bring in Brock Osweiler, who is at best, somewhat proven. Osweiler will have a ton of pressure on him to live up to the huge contract that he signed, and I am not sold that he can do that. DeAndre Hopkins is a budding superstar at wide receiver, and J.J. Watt anchors the defense. Last year the team made the playoffs with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback, and I do think that Osweiler is at least an upgrade over him. I am not sold at all on him though, since he played last year on Denver with a Super Bowl winning defense and not much pressure because of that defense. He held down the fort without Peyton Manning, but when the games really started to matter, Osweiler was on the sidelines. This will be his chance to show that he should be on the field in January.
Ceiling: If the defense is above-average and everything falls into place on offense, I think that Houston can win this division. I doubt they win a playoff game, but if Osweiler is able to prove that he is a starting-caliber quarterback, the future could look much brighter. 10-6 and a playoff berth should be the ceiling for Houston.
Floor: The floor here is all about Osweiler. If he is unable to live up to the high expectations heaped on to his shoulders because of the contract he signed, he will get most of the blame for a bad season, and I do not know if he has the makeup to deal with that happening. If Tennessee and Jacksonville improve and the Colts play up to the potential that they have, Houston could finish last in this division.
Reality: I do think that Houston could make the playoffs, but I just am not sold on Osweiler. They managed to play into January with Brian Hoyer last year though, so maybe they can do that again. Either way, one postseason game should be as good as they can hope for. I do not see this team playing past Wild Card weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are a team that many people have their eyes on as a potential sleeper to make some serious noise. They are surely on the upswing and the future looks bright, but in order for them to be a serious threat in 2016, everything is going to need to fall in place all at once, and the chances of that happening are slim. Blake Bortles seems to have the potential to be a good, but not great, quarterback, and they do have good talent at the skill positions.
I really like their defense though. Jacksonville took Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack in the draft, and it could be argued that those were the two best defensive players available yet Jack fell to the second round due to injury. They also signed Malik Jackson, who played a huge role in Denver's Super Bowl run.
Ceiling: If everyone stays healthy and plays up to their potential, this is the best team in the AFC South. However, that is a very big if. Jacksonville is definitely on the upswing though. They have only won 14 games combined over the past four years though, so I think it is too much to ask for them to instantly become a great team. If Jacksonville could get to 8-8, they should be happy.
Floor: The potential is there, but this team is still extremely young. We have seen top-flight talents be drafted high and turn out to be disappointments, so do not put Ramsey in the Pro Bowl just yet. Malik Jackson was great for Denver last year, but we see guys plucked off of great defenses time and time again that prove they were benefactors of a great unit, and not as good once they are removed from that unit. Bortles has gotten off to a pretty nice start over his first two years, but he is far from proven right now. If injuries occur and key components do not live up to the lofty expectations, I think 5-11 or 4-12 is still possible.
Reality: It is all the same in this division. All of these teams have the potential to go 10-6 or 6-10. I do really like what Jacksonville is building, but I think it will take a few years to all come together. They were 5-11 last year and I think they should improve upon that in 2016. If that happens and the young pieces can develop, this has the potential to be a team with a very bright future.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: After taking a beating yesterday at the hands of the Dodgers, the only real drama today is the trade deadline, which is now only a few hours away. The team traded Tyler Clippard to the Yankees yesterday, and I think it is possible that Daniel Hudson might be dealt as well today. Add those to Brad Ziegler being traded a few weeks ago, and it seems like every spot in the bullpen will be up for grabs going into 2017.
As a side note, Josh Collmenter was designated for assignment yesterday, and we may have seen the last of him in a Diamondbacks uniform. He was by no means a star, but he has played a role throughout the pitching staff for a number of years, and it will be sad to see him go.
Daily Giants Update: When I get alerts on my phone that Odell Beckham Jr. was injured in practice and it is August 1st, it is not a good thing. He got tangled up with Janoris Jenkins yesterday but he should be fine, and that is a relief. It is great when training camp rolls around, but it also means that the threat of injury exists every day. Thankfully, Beckham avoided that yesterday.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans followed up a 2-14 season in 2014 with a 3-13 season in 2015. So why would I ever pick them to win the AFC South? 50% of me says that it is totally crazy, but the other 50% says it might at least be possible.
Marcus Mariota is coming off a rookie season in which he passed for just under 3,000 yards and threw 19 touchdowns. In elite NFL quarterback terms that is nothing special, but I was a bit surprised by how well he played coming from an offense in college that was nothing like an NFL offense. The Titans lacked a true threat in the backfield, but they addressed that this offseason by signing DeMarco Murray. It is no secret that he was completely mishandled in Philadelphia, and while he may not lead the league in rushing like he did in Dallas, I do think he will be much more effective with the Titans this season. Mariota is also a very capable runner himself, and Tennessee does have a good offensive line. And what else did Tennessee add to their backfield? Oh that's right, Derrick Henry, the Heisman Trophy winner. With Mariota, Henry, and Murray, the Titans have a dangerous rushing attack. Add Delanie Walker to that mix at tight end, and I think Mariota has some pieces around him to be successful.
The defense is relatively strong and it is led by Jurrell Casey up front. Linebacker is a question mark, but Tennessee's secondary is not too bad. Like I said, I am going out on a limb here, but Tennessee is definitely improving.
Ceiling: These possibilities are going to get repetitive in this division. I do like some things that the Titans are doing, and I think it could be possible that they win the division. If that does actually happen though, I think that is as good as it will get. They are still not on the level of the elite teams in the AFC and will not win a playoff game.
Floor: The floor is last place. It is quite a difference from the ceiling, but like I said, this division is the textbook definition of wide open. At worst, I think Tennessee is drafting in the top ten in 2017.
Reality: It is a bit of a reach to pick the Titans to win this division, but in all reality, I think that the winner of this division could surely finish at 9-7. Is that possible for Tennessee? Yes. Is it probable? No. However, for the sake of my prediction, I will say they go 9-7.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were on the upswing after Andrew Luck proved himself to be a top level NFL quarterback, but they regressed last year and finished at 8-8. Having Luck alone gives them an advantage over the rest of the division, as he is clearly the best quarterback, but they have a ton of question marks as well.
T.Y. Hilton is elite and Donte Moncrief is an up and coming talent on the outside, but I don't think Frank Gore can handle a full season as a starting running back, and that means that Andrew Luck is going to have a lot of pressure on his shoulders. He can handle it, but he is prone to turnovers and does take a lot of punishment. Not having a running game is not a recipe for success with Luck as your quarterback. The defense was bad last year, and there are a lot of aging players on that side of the ball, so I think that will only add to the already heavy load on Luck's shoulders.
Ceiling: This team definitely could win the division. They won 11 games in three consecutive seasons after falling to 8-8 last year, so maybe that was just an outlier. However, just like every other team in the AFC South, there are questions. I think 10-6 is the best that fans in Indianapolis could expect.
Floor: Since Luck does take a beating quite a bit, the worst case scenario is that he gets hurt. If that happens, then this team has no shot to even sniff a playoff berth. I do not expect that though. In a division full of mediocre teams, I still think the Colts have enough to finish 6-10 at worst.
Reality: Like I said, the Colts have the talent to win this division. I would not be surprised if that happens. I expect them to finish at 8-8 or 9-7, but I think they will be hard-pressed to win a playoff game.
Houston Texans
Houston won the division last year at 9-7 but were blown off the field by Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs. The question with the Texans has always been the play at quarterback, and Houston spent a whole lot of money to bring in Brock Osweiler, who is at best, somewhat proven. Osweiler will have a ton of pressure on him to live up to the huge contract that he signed, and I am not sold that he can do that. DeAndre Hopkins is a budding superstar at wide receiver, and J.J. Watt anchors the defense. Last year the team made the playoffs with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback, and I do think that Osweiler is at least an upgrade over him. I am not sold at all on him though, since he played last year on Denver with a Super Bowl winning defense and not much pressure because of that defense. He held down the fort without Peyton Manning, but when the games really started to matter, Osweiler was on the sidelines. This will be his chance to show that he should be on the field in January.
Ceiling: If the defense is above-average and everything falls into place on offense, I think that Houston can win this division. I doubt they win a playoff game, but if Osweiler is able to prove that he is a starting-caliber quarterback, the future could look much brighter. 10-6 and a playoff berth should be the ceiling for Houston.
Floor: The floor here is all about Osweiler. If he is unable to live up to the high expectations heaped on to his shoulders because of the contract he signed, he will get most of the blame for a bad season, and I do not know if he has the makeup to deal with that happening. If Tennessee and Jacksonville improve and the Colts play up to the potential that they have, Houston could finish last in this division.
Reality: I do think that Houston could make the playoffs, but I just am not sold on Osweiler. They managed to play into January with Brian Hoyer last year though, so maybe they can do that again. Either way, one postseason game should be as good as they can hope for. I do not see this team playing past Wild Card weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are a team that many people have their eyes on as a potential sleeper to make some serious noise. They are surely on the upswing and the future looks bright, but in order for them to be a serious threat in 2016, everything is going to need to fall in place all at once, and the chances of that happening are slim. Blake Bortles seems to have the potential to be a good, but not great, quarterback, and they do have good talent at the skill positions.
I really like their defense though. Jacksonville took Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack in the draft, and it could be argued that those were the two best defensive players available yet Jack fell to the second round due to injury. They also signed Malik Jackson, who played a huge role in Denver's Super Bowl run.
Ceiling: If everyone stays healthy and plays up to their potential, this is the best team in the AFC South. However, that is a very big if. Jacksonville is definitely on the upswing though. They have only won 14 games combined over the past four years though, so I think it is too much to ask for them to instantly become a great team. If Jacksonville could get to 8-8, they should be happy.
Floor: The potential is there, but this team is still extremely young. We have seen top-flight talents be drafted high and turn out to be disappointments, so do not put Ramsey in the Pro Bowl just yet. Malik Jackson was great for Denver last year, but we see guys plucked off of great defenses time and time again that prove they were benefactors of a great unit, and not as good once they are removed from that unit. Bortles has gotten off to a pretty nice start over his first two years, but he is far from proven right now. If injuries occur and key components do not live up to the lofty expectations, I think 5-11 or 4-12 is still possible.
Reality: It is all the same in this division. All of these teams have the potential to go 10-6 or 6-10. I do really like what Jacksonville is building, but I think it will take a few years to all come together. They were 5-11 last year and I think they should improve upon that in 2016. If that happens and the young pieces can develop, this has the potential to be a team with a very bright future.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: After taking a beating yesterday at the hands of the Dodgers, the only real drama today is the trade deadline, which is now only a few hours away. The team traded Tyler Clippard to the Yankees yesterday, and I think it is possible that Daniel Hudson might be dealt as well today. Add those to Brad Ziegler being traded a few weeks ago, and it seems like every spot in the bullpen will be up for grabs going into 2017.
As a side note, Josh Collmenter was designated for assignment yesterday, and we may have seen the last of him in a Diamondbacks uniform. He was by no means a star, but he has played a role throughout the pitching staff for a number of years, and it will be sad to see him go.
Daily Giants Update: When I get alerts on my phone that Odell Beckham Jr. was injured in practice and it is August 1st, it is not a good thing. He got tangled up with Janoris Jenkins yesterday but he should be fine, and that is a relief. It is great when training camp rolls around, but it also means that the threat of injury exists every day. Thankfully, Beckham avoided that yesterday.
Saturday, July 30, 2016
NFL Previews, Day Two
Yesterday, I wrote that I expect the Patriots to absolutely win the AFC East. That is not exactly going out on a limb, but even with Tom Brady missing the first four games, New England is too good to not win that division. Next up is the AFC North.
AFC North
The two mainstays in this division over the past decade have been the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, as both of those teams have won multiple Super Bowls over the past decade and a half. The Cincinnati Bengals have been good in the regular season for a while now, but that has not turned into any sort of success in the postseason. The Cleveland Browns have been the perennial bottom-feeder. I expect that trend to continue in 2016.
Pittsburgh Steelers - I think this is a team that should have Super Bowl aspirations. They have one of the best offensive units in the entire league, and while their defense is clearly not on the level of the offense, it did improve a bit in 2015, and they addressed multiple needs on that side of the ball in the draft. Pittsburgh's defense will not have to be perfect week in and week out, because the offense could potentially put up 30 points per game.
There is one gorilla in the room on the offensive side of the ball though, and that is multiple suspensions. Martavis Bryant is out for the entire season due to suspension, and Le'Veon Bell is facing a possible four game suspension. However, I think Pittsburgh has enough depth to make up for those losses. Ben Roethlisberger has won multiple Super Bowls, and Antonio Brown is the best wide receiver in the NFL. DeAngelo Williams is a very capable backup that can at least hold down the fort if Bell's suspension is upheld.
The key is the defense though. The weakest part of that unit was the secondary, and Pittsburgh took defensive backs with its first two picks in the draft. If the defense can at least be average, the Steelers could potentially make a deep playoff run.
Ceiling: I think it is fair to say that you could potentially consider Pittsburgh as a Super Bowl caliber team. The offense should be one of the best in the league. We have seen teams make the Super Bowl before with great offenses and opportunistic defenses that can force a lot of turnovers, even if they give up a lot of yards. We might see a lot of 35-31 games, but Pittsburgh has the firepower to make it happen if needed.
Floor: Roethlisberger is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the NFL, but he has had his share of injuries over the years. The Steelers have been able to piece together wins in his absence in the past, but if we see a combination of him getting hurt and Bell's suspension causing a slow start, Pittsburgh could miss the playoffs in what is always a tough division.
Reality: Pittsburgh's offense is too good for them to miss the playoffs as long as they stay healthy and out of trouble off the field. There are definitely questions on the defensive side of the ball, but I still think this team is good enough to win one playoff game at the least, and I would not be surprised to see them win more than that.
Cincinnati Bengals
It is the same story in Cincinnati that it has always been since Marvin Lewis took over as head coach. Regular season success and postseason failure. The Bengals gave away a game in the playoffs last year that they should have won based pretty much on sheer stupidity and dirty play. It was a new and innovative way to fail in January, but the result was the same. The team did lose a few somewhat significant pieces during the offseason, so I hate to say it, but I think they could be on the way to a similar ending in 2016.
Andy Dalton has developed into a pretty good quarterback but until he at least wins one playoff game, he and Marvin Lewis will be known for the exact same thing. A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert are elite targets, and Cincinnati has a pretty good offensive line as well as a few good running backs.
The strength of the defense remains on the line, and Cincinnati used its first pick on a defensive back that can hopefully help the secondary.
Ceiling: The Bengals have actually reached the postseason in each of the past five seasons, but that has been as good as it has gotten. The AFC North is always tough, but I do think Cincinnati has the potential to end the regular season at the top. Then comes the playoffs though, and with each failure, the pressure on Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis grows and grows. If they can win one playoff game in 2016, I think the season could be considered a success and a step in the right direction.
Floor: Cincinnati's schedule is very tough right out of the gate, and if they get off to a bad start it could put them in a big hole. I think finishing third in the division is as bad as it could get.
Reality: This is close to the same team as last year, so I think that it is fair to expect similar results. Maybe they win the division, but it is going to be tough. I hate to say it, but I think either just missing the playoffs or losing in the first round is what to expect. Until I see otherwise, I am expecting the same Bengals that we have seen over the past few seasons.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finished an extremely disappointing 2015 season at 5-11. They seem to have too much talent on the roster to be a 5-11 team, but just ask the Dallas Cowboys what a bunch of talent gets you. It gets you absolutely nothing. Baltimore took Ronnie Stanley in the first round, and many people considered him to be one of the best players in the draft. Losing Kelechi Osemele was tough, but I think the team is hoping that the loss can be offset by adding Stanley to the offensive line. I would be very surprised to see this team go 5-11 again, but making the playoffs will be difficult.
Ceiling: The Ravens are a melting pot of very good players and veterans likely past their prime. If Joe Flacco has an outstanding year and the defense is better than they look like on paper, maybe Baltimore can make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. I do not see them winning any playoff games though.
Floor: I still think this team is better than 5-11, but it is definitely possible that they go 0-4 in their games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. They also get the AFC East and NFC East, so you have to figure there will be multiple losses there. So in reality, maybe 5-11 is possible. They are not worse than Cleveland, but this team surely could be picking early in the draft next year because they win seven games at the most.
Reality: Like I said, I do not see this team going 5-11 again, but I find it highly unlikely that they are able to overtake Pittsburgh or Cincinnati at the top of the division. Maybe they can hit 7-9, and if they get a bunch of breaks possibly even 8-8, but I don't think this is a playoff team this year.
Cleveland Browns
Last, and least, we have the Cleveland Browns. LeBron James came home and finally won a title for the city of Cleveland, and the Browns organization should be thanking him for that. This has been an organization that has been far below-average from top to bottom for years and years now, and I do not think that anything is going to change in 2016. The team made a big splash in the offseason by bringing in Robert Griffin III, but the problem is he has not been any good for multiple years now. Josh Gordon has all of this talent and was the best wide receiver in football three years ago. Since then, he has done nothing but fail drug tests and been suspended multiple times. And forgive me for saying this, but any time a team has gone into a season with Josh McCown having a shot at the starting quarterback job, it has ended very badly.
The Browns are clearly the worst team in this division. Once the calendar hits October, the fans in Cleveland will be awaiting the start of the Cavaliers' season.
Ceiling: If this team finishes anywhere other than last place in the division, I would be very, very surprised. When I look at their roster, the first thing I think of is how hard it must be for Joe Thomas to still be one of the best offensive linemen in football yet be stuck on a horrendous team. The Browns were 3-13 last year. If they somehow got to 6-10 this year, their fans should be ecstatic.
Floor: I will put this in the simplest terms possible. If the Browns have the first overall selection in the 2017 draft, I don't think many people would be surprised.
Reality: I think it is near impossible for this team to finish anywhere other than last in the division. If RG3 somehow has a miraculous turnaround and is able to stay healthy for all 16 games, maybe they can expect 5-11 at best. However, I still find that hard to believe, and I think the Browns will be one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Ugh. Another loss in Los Angeles last night and the team only slides further into the basement. Hope for the playoffs has been gone for a while now, and the most interesting point of the regular season might actually be within the next two days since the trade deadline is only one day away.
Daily Giants Update: Training camp is underway, so obviously everyone is thinking positively now. Victor Cruz is out on the field, but I don't want to say anything about that because every time his name is mentioned, I feel like he is closer to some sort of injury. That is all.
AFC North
The two mainstays in this division over the past decade have been the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, as both of those teams have won multiple Super Bowls over the past decade and a half. The Cincinnati Bengals have been good in the regular season for a while now, but that has not turned into any sort of success in the postseason. The Cleveland Browns have been the perennial bottom-feeder. I expect that trend to continue in 2016.
Pittsburgh Steelers - I think this is a team that should have Super Bowl aspirations. They have one of the best offensive units in the entire league, and while their defense is clearly not on the level of the offense, it did improve a bit in 2015, and they addressed multiple needs on that side of the ball in the draft. Pittsburgh's defense will not have to be perfect week in and week out, because the offense could potentially put up 30 points per game.
There is one gorilla in the room on the offensive side of the ball though, and that is multiple suspensions. Martavis Bryant is out for the entire season due to suspension, and Le'Veon Bell is facing a possible four game suspension. However, I think Pittsburgh has enough depth to make up for those losses. Ben Roethlisberger has won multiple Super Bowls, and Antonio Brown is the best wide receiver in the NFL. DeAngelo Williams is a very capable backup that can at least hold down the fort if Bell's suspension is upheld.
The key is the defense though. The weakest part of that unit was the secondary, and Pittsburgh took defensive backs with its first two picks in the draft. If the defense can at least be average, the Steelers could potentially make a deep playoff run.
Ceiling: I think it is fair to say that you could potentially consider Pittsburgh as a Super Bowl caliber team. The offense should be one of the best in the league. We have seen teams make the Super Bowl before with great offenses and opportunistic defenses that can force a lot of turnovers, even if they give up a lot of yards. We might see a lot of 35-31 games, but Pittsburgh has the firepower to make it happen if needed.
Floor: Roethlisberger is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the NFL, but he has had his share of injuries over the years. The Steelers have been able to piece together wins in his absence in the past, but if we see a combination of him getting hurt and Bell's suspension causing a slow start, Pittsburgh could miss the playoffs in what is always a tough division.
Reality: Pittsburgh's offense is too good for them to miss the playoffs as long as they stay healthy and out of trouble off the field. There are definitely questions on the defensive side of the ball, but I still think this team is good enough to win one playoff game at the least, and I would not be surprised to see them win more than that.
Cincinnati Bengals
It is the same story in Cincinnati that it has always been since Marvin Lewis took over as head coach. Regular season success and postseason failure. The Bengals gave away a game in the playoffs last year that they should have won based pretty much on sheer stupidity and dirty play. It was a new and innovative way to fail in January, but the result was the same. The team did lose a few somewhat significant pieces during the offseason, so I hate to say it, but I think they could be on the way to a similar ending in 2016.
Andy Dalton has developed into a pretty good quarterback but until he at least wins one playoff game, he and Marvin Lewis will be known for the exact same thing. A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert are elite targets, and Cincinnati has a pretty good offensive line as well as a few good running backs.
The strength of the defense remains on the line, and Cincinnati used its first pick on a defensive back that can hopefully help the secondary.
Ceiling: The Bengals have actually reached the postseason in each of the past five seasons, but that has been as good as it has gotten. The AFC North is always tough, but I do think Cincinnati has the potential to end the regular season at the top. Then comes the playoffs though, and with each failure, the pressure on Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis grows and grows. If they can win one playoff game in 2016, I think the season could be considered a success and a step in the right direction.
Floor: Cincinnati's schedule is very tough right out of the gate, and if they get off to a bad start it could put them in a big hole. I think finishing third in the division is as bad as it could get.
Reality: This is close to the same team as last year, so I think that it is fair to expect similar results. Maybe they win the division, but it is going to be tough. I hate to say it, but I think either just missing the playoffs or losing in the first round is what to expect. Until I see otherwise, I am expecting the same Bengals that we have seen over the past few seasons.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finished an extremely disappointing 2015 season at 5-11. They seem to have too much talent on the roster to be a 5-11 team, but just ask the Dallas Cowboys what a bunch of talent gets you. It gets you absolutely nothing. Baltimore took Ronnie Stanley in the first round, and many people considered him to be one of the best players in the draft. Losing Kelechi Osemele was tough, but I think the team is hoping that the loss can be offset by adding Stanley to the offensive line. I would be very surprised to see this team go 5-11 again, but making the playoffs will be difficult.
Ceiling: The Ravens are a melting pot of very good players and veterans likely past their prime. If Joe Flacco has an outstanding year and the defense is better than they look like on paper, maybe Baltimore can make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. I do not see them winning any playoff games though.
Floor: I still think this team is better than 5-11, but it is definitely possible that they go 0-4 in their games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. They also get the AFC East and NFC East, so you have to figure there will be multiple losses there. So in reality, maybe 5-11 is possible. They are not worse than Cleveland, but this team surely could be picking early in the draft next year because they win seven games at the most.
Reality: Like I said, I do not see this team going 5-11 again, but I find it highly unlikely that they are able to overtake Pittsburgh or Cincinnati at the top of the division. Maybe they can hit 7-9, and if they get a bunch of breaks possibly even 8-8, but I don't think this is a playoff team this year.
Cleveland Browns
Last, and least, we have the Cleveland Browns. LeBron James came home and finally won a title for the city of Cleveland, and the Browns organization should be thanking him for that. This has been an organization that has been far below-average from top to bottom for years and years now, and I do not think that anything is going to change in 2016. The team made a big splash in the offseason by bringing in Robert Griffin III, but the problem is he has not been any good for multiple years now. Josh Gordon has all of this talent and was the best wide receiver in football three years ago. Since then, he has done nothing but fail drug tests and been suspended multiple times. And forgive me for saying this, but any time a team has gone into a season with Josh McCown having a shot at the starting quarterback job, it has ended very badly.
The Browns are clearly the worst team in this division. Once the calendar hits October, the fans in Cleveland will be awaiting the start of the Cavaliers' season.
Ceiling: If this team finishes anywhere other than last place in the division, I would be very, very surprised. When I look at their roster, the first thing I think of is how hard it must be for Joe Thomas to still be one of the best offensive linemen in football yet be stuck on a horrendous team. The Browns were 3-13 last year. If they somehow got to 6-10 this year, their fans should be ecstatic.
Floor: I will put this in the simplest terms possible. If the Browns have the first overall selection in the 2017 draft, I don't think many people would be surprised.
Reality: I think it is near impossible for this team to finish anywhere other than last in the division. If RG3 somehow has a miraculous turnaround and is able to stay healthy for all 16 games, maybe they can expect 5-11 at best. However, I still find that hard to believe, and I think the Browns will be one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Ugh. Another loss in Los Angeles last night and the team only slides further into the basement. Hope for the playoffs has been gone for a while now, and the most interesting point of the regular season might actually be within the next two days since the trade deadline is only one day away.
Daily Giants Update: Training camp is underway, so obviously everyone is thinking positively now. Victor Cruz is out on the field, but I don't want to say anything about that because every time his name is mentioned, I feel like he is closer to some sort of injury. That is all.
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