NFL Preview: Part Nine

One more day goes by, and we are one day closer to real NFL football. Next in my team-by-team previews, we look at the teams that finished second in both the AFC West and the NFC West. That would be the Chargers and the Cardinals. First up is the San Diego Chargers.

San Diego Chargers

This is a team that seems to be constantly failing to meet expectations. The core has remained mostly the same, with mainstays like Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates headlining the roster, as well as Norv Turner leading the team as the head coach. However, this used to be a team that at least made the playoffs and underperformed. The past two seasons they have underperformed and failed to even make the playoffs. There have been calls for Norv Turner to be fired and for this team to be overhauled for quite some time now, and one more season without a playoff appearance might be enough to make that actually happen.

Non-divisional opponents: Tennessee, Atlanta, New Orleans, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Carolina, NY Jets

The offense was very good in San Diego last season. Philip Rivers is a very good quarterback that often times gets overlooked for a number of reasons, but he led the Chargers to the 6th ranked passing attack in the NFL, as well as the 5th best offense in terms of points per game. Ryan Mathews has done a good job in replacing future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson, but injuries have been a bit of a problem for him. The rushing attack still ranked 16th last year, which is acceptable for a team that was so good in the passing game. The defense was the weak spot here though, as the Chargers were 22nd in the league in scoring defense, and 20th in the league in stopping the run.
The Chargers suffered some big personnel losses over the offseason, but they did do a pretty nice job of trying to make up for some of those losses through both free agency and the draft.

As I said, Philip Rivers is an often overlooked quarterback, although he struggled a bit last season and made a few very costly mistakes that really hurt this team. He actually threw four interceptions that were run back for touchdowns last year, so things like that only make matters worse when you not only turn the ball over, but let opposing defenses score as well. Rivers is tough in terms of both his play and his mindset though, so I would be surprised if he didn't put together a better year than in 2011.

Ryan Mathews returns as the starting running back, and he can be a top-flight back when healthy. His health can be a concern a lot though, and Mathews already suffered a broken collarbone this offseason. It happened long enough ago that he could be back for the start of the season, but he may miss the opener. He won't be out long after that, if he is indeed out for Week 1, but with injuries already cropping up, the Chargers still need to be aware that he may not be in there for all 16 games. The Chargers brought in Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle to lighten the load on Mathews, and both of them have starting experience and would be able to provide some insurance in relief of Mathews, but Mathews will need to stay healthy for the Chargers offense to be at full strength.
San Diego also added LeRon McClain at the fullback position, and he can also carry the ball in short yardage situations. Hopefully for San Diego's sake, this depth will allow everyone to stay healthy throughout the year.

The biggest loss that the Chargers suffered was at the wide receiver, as Vincent Jackson left for Tampa Bay. Jackson developed into one of the game's best receivers while in San Diego, and he will be missed. To help replace Jackson, the Chargers brought in Robert Meacham and Eddie Royal, both of whom can be solid receivers, although neither are as good as Jackson. San Diego also has Malcolm Floyd, who has been developing into a good wideout. The team took a hit when Vincent Brown went down with an injury, and he will likely miss the majority of the season. Although the Chargers don't have a true number one receiver, they do have some solid threats on the outside.
The Chargers will also greatly benefit from the return of Rivers' favorite target, tight end Antonio Gates, to full health. Gates is not far away from a time when he was unquestionably the best tight end in the game, but injuries have caused him to miss games during the past few years. Gates is supposedly as healthy as he has been in a long time coming into 2012, and a good year from him will help make up for the loss of Jackson. If Gates can stay healthy all year, Mathews can stay healthy and continue to be a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield, and the receiving corps can combine to help lessen the blow of Jackson's departure, Rivers will still have a lot of targets to throw the ball to.

San Diego took a few big hits on the offensive line over the offseason, as Kris Dielman and Marcus McNeill are both gone. Both of them played big roles in protecting Rivers, and their losses will be tough to make up for. Center Nick Hardwick is the best of the bunch up front, and he actually allowed zero sacks and was penalized only once all of last season. The Chargers will need a similar season from their leader on the line, as well as some improvement from his surrounding linemen.

Takeo Spikes and Donald Butler in the middle, as well as the addition of Jarret Johnson to provide depth makes the linebacking corps a good one.

Up front, the best player is Corey Luiget, and the Chargers also added defensive end Kendall Reyes in the second round of the draft and they hope he can provide an immediate impact. In order to free the linebackers to make plays, the defensive linemen need to perform well.

Quentin Jammer is the top corner, and Antoine Cason is serviceable on the opposite side, but the best player on this defense is free safety Eric Weddle. Weddle tied for the NFL lead in interceptions last year, made the Pro Bowl, and is one of the best in the business at his position. His playmaking ability can cover up for a few of the deficiencies of the players around him, and the Chargers will need him to thrive again this year to protect the back end of this defense.

The special teams is above-average, as Nate Kaeding is a good kicker, although he is coming off a season-ending injury. Mike Scifres is an excellent punter. The returners are plentiful. None of them are truly special, but the Chargers have a lot of options to choose from to return kicks and punts, so they should be strong in this area.

The schedule is pretty tough, as the Chargers will get five teams that made the playoffs out of their ten non-divisional games. The Chiefs will be a team that will probably improve this year, and Denver will definitely be the favorite to win the division, so this will be no cakewalk for San Diego. A stretch of consecutive games against Denver, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh in Weeks 11-14 could define the season.

Best-case scenario: Everyone stays healthy, the offseason acquisitions are able to make up for the loss of some key players, the youngsters on defense step up, and San Diego wins the AFC West.
Worst-case scenario: The offense is plagued by injuries again, some of the players on defense begin to show their age and the others underperform, the Chargers finish last in the division, and a complete overhaul of the team and front office takes place at the end of the season.
Realistic prediction: I would expect the reality to be somewhat closer to the worst-case scenario here. The division around the Chargers is getting tougher, and the Chargers are slowly declining. The team finished 8-8 last year, and I think that 8-8 is a realistic expectation for this year as well.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals 2011 season was a tale of two halves. The team opened the year 1-6, but played well enough to finish second in a very weak division with a record of 8-8. The Cardinals won four overtime games, although counting on overtime wins is not exactly a tried and true recipe for success. While the strong finish left the team feeling better by the end of the year, there are still a lot of questions to be answered, and the biggest and most important question is at the quarterback position.

Non-divisional opponents: New England, Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, Minnesota, Green Bay, Atlanta, NY Jets, Detroit, Chicago

The numbers from last year do not paint a very pretty picture of the 2011 Cardinals. The offense was no better than 17th in the league in any major category, and the defense was no better than 16th. The Cardinals were pretty much a reflection of those numbers: below-average across the board. There are a few bright spots, but there remain more questions than answers.

As I said, the biggest question mark here is behind center. The Cardinals brought in Kevin Kolb and paid him a lot of money with the hope that he could become a franchise quarterback, and he has not come close to meeting those expectations. Arizona gave John Skelton a chance to start at the end of the season, and because his insertion coincided with the late season success of the team, Skelton has earned himself a shot to start the 2012 season behind center for the Cardinals. Now Skelton is far from a proven commodity, but the team and the fans have obviously been enormously disappointed by the play of Kolb, and this is a team that is probably only mediocre at best, so I think giving Skelton a shot to start is the correct decision.

One positive sign in 2011 was a very good year from running back Beanie Wells. Wells had been plagued by injuries throughout the early part of his career, but he put together a very good season in 2011, rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns. Wells will need to stay healthy again this year and put up similar numbers in order for the offense to be successful. The backup is Ryan Williams, and he has the potential to be a good number two option, but he has had health problems as well.

For all of the questions in Arizona, there is one thing that can be counted on, and that is Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is arguably the best wide receiver in the league. No matter the coverage, Fitzgerald can be extremely productive, and his presence alone makes Skelton better. The Cardinals also made an interesting addition in the draft, selecting wide receiver Michael Floyd from Notre Dame. The team hopes that Floyd can step in and provide a good number two option. A good rookie season from Floyd will help everyone on offense. Todd Heap is the tight end, although he is past his prime and is no longer close to the threat he was during his tenure in Baltimore.

The offensive line is a serious concern. None of the starters are standouts, and Skelton will have problems if the line is unable to protect him. Arizona used three draft picks on offensive linemen who might possibly have the potential to start, but until they prove anything on the field, the line will remain the weakest part of this team.

The defense is respectable but nothing spectacular. Calais Campbell has become the top pass rusher on the team, and he teams with Darnell Dockett to form a good pass rushing duo up front. The linebacking corps is nothing special. Arizona is pretty strong on the outside with O'Brien Schofield and young Sam Acho, who is probably the best linebacker on the team. This is a team that runs a 3-4 that actually gets more of a pass rush from its linemen though and not its linebackers.

The secondary is pretty good, and the group is led by strong safety Adrian Wilson, who has been a mainstay in the Cardinals organization for many years. Patrick Peterson is the young star at cornerback, and he has a ton of upside. Not only does he have the potential to become a good cover corner, but he is also extremely dangerous when he gets his hands on the ball.

Peterson also has elite return abilities on special teams, and he is already one of the best punt returners in the game. As the number one cornerback, the Cardinals obviously do not want to get him hurt running back kicks, but he has so much talent to do so that it is impossible to take him out of the punt return spot. He has game-changing abilities and is an elite special teams weapon.
Jay Feely and Dave Zastudil are also serviceable in the kicking game.

A look at the schedule should scare the Cardinals and their fans. The AFC East and NFC North are the divisions on the schedule, plus with games against the Eagles and Falcons, this is a tough schedule with no more than two consecutive games that could be considered "easy" on paper.

Best-case scenario: Skelton steps in and thrives as the starter, the team can avoid injuries and get good seasons from its rookies, the other youngsters continue to improve, and the Cardinals finish second in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Skelton is exposed as teams get to see more of him and he proves to be unworthy of a starting spot, Fitzgerald is the only legitimate threat on offense, the defense is unable to stop teams from outscoring a bad offense, and the Cardinals fight with the Rams to stay out of last place in the division.
Realistic prediction: A lot went right for the Cardinals last night to even get them to 8-8, and with an unproven quarterback in there for a full season, I can't say that I like Arizona's chances, especially with what looks to be a tough schedule. I'm going to say that the Cardinals take a pretty big step back and finish 5-11.

Next up will be the teams that finished second in the AFC and NFC South divisions, so that means tomorrow will be a look at the Titans and the Falcons.