Thursday, August 3, 2017

2017 NFL Predictions, Part I

AFC East

This division has become one of the easiest things to predict in all of sports since the dawn of the new millennium. The Patriots were always at the top and everyone else lagged far behind. Last year, the Patriots were at the top, the Dolphins surprised many of us and also made the playoffs, but New England still won the Super Bowl. So looking ahead to the 2017 season, let's start here. The schedules this year will be tough for these four teams, as they draw two strong divisions in the NFC South and the AFC West. In the end though, the conclusion this year is pretty much identical to what it has been here for almost two decades. All signs point to the New England Patriots winning the AFC East. Again.

New England Patriots

Ever since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady took this team over, it has been the same story year in and year out. And now that Brady is 40 years old, it still doesn't matter. The Patriots seem to be the clear favorites to win this division once again in 2017. The offense added Brandin Cooks, Mike Gillislee, Dwayne Allen, and a few other pieces, and with Brady at the helm, you know the Patriots are going to put a lot of points up on the scoreboard. One thing I do want to say about this offense is that I think we are nearing a point where Rob Gronkowski is getting very close to becoming overrated. The guy is entertaining and he is a great player when he is on the field, but he just gets injured too much. He hasn't played all 16 games since 2011, and he missed eight games last year. The Patriots have proven that they can win without him, so this isn't really a shot at their team, but I do think that anyone out there calling him easily the best tight end in the game and a future Hall of Famer need to take a step back for the time being.

On the defensive side of the ball, I like what New England has in place. Adding Stephon Gilmore and Kony Ealy will help a lot, and while guys like Trey Flowers and Malcolm Brown might not be household names right now, they should be solid pieces on this defensive front. Dont'a Hightower is a very good linebacker, and the secondary is really good as well.

There is no question that this team should be focused on winning the Super Bowl again this year, and as of today, I think the Patriots are certainly the favorites to win it all. In reality, maybe they don't repeat as champions, but at the very least, this is still one of the best teams in the entire NFL.

Miami Dolphins

*Ryan Tannehill went down in practice this morning, and we are still waiting for the results of tests on his knee that he injured last year but did not have surgically repaired. Any 2017 forecasts of the Miami Dolphins hinge largely on his health*

Miami finished a surprising 10-6 last year and made the playoffs, although they did lose their first game to the Steelers once they got there. However, I do like some of the pieces that this team has in place and they could actually have the building blocks in place for a nice little run of sustained success.

With Ryan Tannehill, Jay Ajayi, Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, and DeVante Parker, I think this Miami offense has the potential to be pretty good. Thanks to one of the weirdest draft day scenarios ever in any sport, Miami was able to grab Laremy Tunsil lower than expected, and he seems like he could be an anchor at left tackle, but I do still have some concerns about this offensive line as a whole.

They addressed the defense in free agency and the draft, and I think that mix of youth and experience should be pretty good this year.

The schedules in the AFC East look tough on paper this year, and with Tannehill going down this morning, it is really tough to predict what is going to happen with the Dolphins right now. They are just not as good as the Patriots, and I find it hard to believe that two teams from this division will make the playoffs this year, so technically that means Miami will regress in 2017. However, they do have a lot of very young talent at key positions, so this still will most likely be an average to above-average team this season, and the fans should have an optimistic view going forward.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills went from 9-7 three years ago, to 8-8 two years ago, and 7-9 last year. Could the trend continue in 2017 and Buffalo end up at 6-10? Honestly, it is certainly possible. They brought in a new head coach in Sean McDermott and also made a ton of moves in free agency as well, but their quarterback is still Tyrod Taylor, and that is the problem. I will admit that I probably have underrated him based on numbers alone. He is a capable NFL quarterback, but I still refuse to be sold on the fact that he is an NFL quarterback capable of winning anything significant.

Buffalo is similar to Miami in that they do have some very young and talented players on their roster, but I think that Miami has more talented players at more important positions than Buffalo. Could Buffalo be an 8-8 team in 2017? It's possible, but if I had to bet on it, I would take the under there. I would expect another mediocre season from the Bills again.

New York Jets

In all likelihood, this is going to be a tough year for the Jets. Their Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterback experience last year did not turn out well, and the bar is going to be set even lower this year with Josh McCown currently penciled in as the Week 1 starter. I have said this for a while now, but I don't understand how or why the team seems to have already given up on Christian Hackenberg at the QB position. Bryce Petty got some playing time last season and wasn't too great, but it was almost as if the team was afraid to even put Hackenberg on the field. Maybe he was that bad in practice, I'm not sure. However, they did spend a second round draft pick on him so I think this year the Jets need to at least see what they have with him no matter what he looks like during the week.

On the defensive side of the ball, I thought going into this draft that Jamal Adams was the best player on the board, and he fell to the Jets and should start right away. Darron Lee could also potentially be a breakout candidate in his second season. The bright spots are few and far between here though.

Until the Jets get any sort of order at their quarterback position, this team is going nowhere. The offensive line is only about average and the skill positions are below-average, so with all of that surrounding a totally unproven QB position, the Jets are looking at a rough season. The defense has a few nice, young bright spots, but they are not nearly bright enough to outshine the dark holes at so many other spots on the field. This is probably a last place team in 2017.

Friday, June 30, 2017

A message for New York Knicks fans

With the recent firing of Phil Jackson, the New York Knicks have been in the news this past week for what seems to be the only thing they are ever in the news for, and that is being a disaster of a franchise. Along with firing Jackson, they also just took Frank Ntilikina with the eighth overall pick of the draft. I would like to criticize that pick, but that would only be because I have never seen Ntilikina play, and the last time the Knicks drafted someone that high from overseas, it worked out pretty well in the name of Kristaps Porzingis. However, aside from Porzingis, the Knicks have done pretty much nothing right for at least a decade.

Free agency opens tonight, and relatively big names like Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, and Gordon Hayward will be out there to be had. And I am here to tell you that it would be absolutely shocking if the Knicks somehow were able to even get a meeting with any of those guys, let alone sign them to a contract. The Knicks are much more likely to lose a superstar name (Carmelo Anthony) than they are to add any kind of big name player. The biggest addition they could possibly make at this point seems to be David Griffin, and that would be to replace Phil Jackson. And no matter who they bring in to replace Jackson is going to have a tough time cleaning up the mess that they will inherit.

Right now, assuming Ntilikina signs with the team, the Knicks have nine players under contract for the upcoming season. Carmelo Anthony will make $26 million, and the next highest paid player on the team will be Joakim Noah. Noah will make $17 million next season. Last year, he played in just over half of the team's games and averaged 5 points per game. It gets worse though. Noah will also miss the first 12 games of next season due to a drug suspension. The third highest paid player on the team is Courtney Lee. He will make $11 million and averaged 10 points per game last year. That is $28 million for two players the combined to average 15 points per game.

The only thing the Knicks have going for them right now is Kristaps Porzingis. I was one of the many people that laughed at the team selecting him in the 2015 draft, but so far he has proven me wrong. Aside from that though, the Knicks are a wasteland, and that is unlikely to change any time soon.

Despite this mess, the Knicks franchise is worth over $3 billion. Their owner, James Dolan, is sitting back and watching his bank account grow with no concern whatsoever for the way his team plays. Dan Gilbert, the owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers, is in my opinion the most unlikeable owner in the NBA. His idiotic letter he wrote to Cavs fans when LeBron James signed with the Miami Heat was a joke, and the only reason he has had any success as an owner is that the best basketball player in the world happened to be born and raised in the state that his team plays in. James returned to Cleveland because of his love for his home town and the fans of the Cavaliers. He did not return because of Dan Gilbert. However, despite that, since James did return to Cleveland, Gilbert has been more than willing to spend a ton of money to improve the team, and it paid off when they won a title two seasons ago. That is the difference between Gilbert and Dolan. They both might be totally unlikeable as owners, but at least Gilbert is willing to open his checkbook to put a winning team on the floor. Dolan only cares about making a profit, and he doesn't care what kind of team he sees on the court.

So why is it then that the Knicks continue to be the most valuable franchise in the NBA? This should not be breaking news, but some people just cannot accept the answer. The reason they continue to be so valuable is the fans. Knicks fans keep spending their money on the team, and the team just continues to be a laughingstock. And James Dolan is laughing loudest.

I understand fan loyalty. I understand that it can cloud the vision of people. But I also understand that there needs to be a point where reality comes before loyalty. As a New York Giants fan, I am fully satisfied with the investment of the ownership of the team. It has paid off with two Super Bowl championships in the past decade, and the team went on a spending spree last offseason to try to improve the defense, and it has turned out pretty well so far, as the Giants' defense was one of the best in the NFL last year.

The Diamondbacks have been through some tough times in the past decade, but they opened the checkbook for Zack Greinke, brought him to Arizona, and it showed me as a fan that the team was trying to win. Last season was disappointing, but this year has been great so far. And even if it wasn't great, just the fact that the team was willing to go for the home run and get Greinke made me feel like the front office was at least going all out to do their best to give the fans a winning team.

That has not been the case with the Knicks. Yes, they did spend a lot of money this past offseason, but anyone in their right mind could have told you that spending it on Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose were horrible decisions. Nonetheless, the Knicks continue to make money while the team continues to lose. So while I am not a Knicks fan at all, in fact I think they are a total joke of a franchise and love to see them lose, I do have two suggestions for Knicks fans to try to help them get a realistic grip on their team, and here they are:

First and foremost, Knicks fans need to come to grips with something. The Knicks are not a storied NBA franchise with a place at the top of the history of the NBA mountain. Just because the team plays in New York does not instantaneously make them historically relevant. The Knicks have won the NBA championship twice. The last time that happened was 1973. 1973 is 44 years ago. If you ask most Knicks fans now about the "glory days" of the franchise, they will tell you about the teams of the 1990's. I don't care how many times those teams reached the second round of the playoffs, they won zero. They won nothing. "Epic battles" with the Pacers and the Heat in the 1990's do not mean anything in the NBA record books. Knicks fans for some reason delude themselves into thinking that their team has some sort of rich history of winning, but they really do not. The Knicks were founded in 1946 and have won two titles. The Miami Heat were founded in 1988 and have won three titles.

Just because a team has been around for years and years does not make them historically relevant. Any casual sports fan knows that the Islanders and the Mets are the "second-fiddle" franchises in New York. The Mets were founded in 1962 and have won the World Series twice. So with a 16 year head start, the Knicks have only been able to match the total number of championships that the Mets have won. The New York Islanders were founded in 1972 and have won four Stanley Cups. So the during the real "glory days" of the Knicks, the Islanders were hardly even a real franchise, yet they still have won more titles than the Knicks.

I hate the fact that people refer to the Knicks as a historic franchise. In 2010, when LeBron James was going to be a free agent and possibly leave Cleveland, Knicks fans talked glowingly about how great their organization was and how LeBron would never be able to turn down the lore of playing for such a historically great team. The only problem was, the Knicks are anything but a historically great team. I'm sure there were many other reasons that James decided to sign with the Heat, but that delusional image that Knicks fans had of themselves certainly was one reason.

So, with that rant out of the way, I would like to try to provide a solution to the problems of Knicks fans. Some people have suggested that commissioner Adam Silver needs to step in and take control of the team, but I'm sorry, that is a ludicrous idea. Unless James Dolan and Donald Sterling had some racist and bigoted conversations that were secretly recorded, Dolan is going to remain the owner of the Knicks for as long as he wants to. That means that the only recourse Knicks fans have is to hit Dolan in the wallet, because he has shown over the course of over a decade that that is the only place he cares about.

Like I said before, I understand the concept of loyalty to one's team. It is unrealistic to think that enough Knicks fans will stop spending money on the team to force Dolan to put in any sort of effort. But the fans need to start somewhere. Supposedly, prior to the hiring of Phil Jackson, Knicks fans were planning to protest outside of Madison Square Garden in an attempt to get Dolan's attention. Maybe that would have happened, or maybe it would not. It is a start though.

I am not a supporter of foul language at pro sports games, but if fans could connect with one another on message boards or prior to games or any way they could, try to get chants of "Dolan sucks" or something like that going at as many home games as possible.

I will give Max Kellerman credit on this one, but if somehow fans at any game could organize some sort of walk out during the game, then do that. You don't have to walk out of your seats for the entire game. You purchased a ticket, so you shouldn't waste your money. Coordinate some sort of walk out to begin the second quarter or the second half or something like that. If enough fans got up and walked out of their seats, even if it were only for 10 minutes or so, it could make people notice.

If anyone reads this and wants the Knicks to change their ways, then go to a game next season and pass out fliers to every fan you see at the game. Walk out of your seats at the beginning of the second quarter so Dolan can see all the seats emptying. Maybe you miss a few minutes of the game, but if the fans could somehow come together and do something like that, then maybe it could have some sort of impact. If you want to try to make the people that really matter notice your dissatisfaction, then why not give it a shot?

Some NBA owners are in it to win, and some are in it only to make money, and Dolan is clearly in it only to make money. That means the only way he could be forced to make significant changes is for him to start losing money. Right now, that is not happening. And until that starts to happen, Dolan will continue to put zero effort into putting a contending team on the court. The players and the coaches are doing the best they can to go out there and win every night, but the fans need to realize that they are the ones that truly have the most power in this situation. Until that happens, they will just be disappointed again and again and James Dolan will keep laughing on the way to the bank.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: A blowout loss yesterday to St. Louis was only a blip on the radar, as the Diamondbacks have been on fire pretty much all season. With the All-Star break only about a week and a half away, they open a very big series with the Rockies tonight. Taking two out of the next three games would be huge.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Kardashians of the sports world

With the NCAA tournament now winding down, college basketball has been at the forefront of the sports world, and that has brought about the rise of the Ball family. Lonzo Ball was the superstar point guard of UCLA this year, and following his team's loss in the Elite Eight, he officially declared that he would be entering the upcoming NBA Draft. I think that many people, myself included, do not pay much attention to college basketball prior to the month of March. Yes, I knew what teams are good and I had a vague knowledge of who the top players are, but I think that if you asked most sports fans who De'Aaron Fox or Sindarius Thornwell were a month ago, they wouldn't know. Lonzo Ball was somewhat more known than those other two, but he never really made the front pages of sports news outlets until the tournament started. However, I think that from now on, Lonzo Ball and his family, for better or worse, are going to be impossible to ignore.

In the year 2017, there are all sorts of ways to become famous. YouTube has become one outlet in which anyone can broadcast themselves to the world, and apparently Lonzo Ball and his two younger brothers had become YouTube sensations as high school basketball players. One of his younger brothers scored 92 points in a game earlier this year, and we got to actually watch Lonzo at UCLA. It is pretty evident that Lonzo Ball will be one of the top picks in the upcoming draft, and from what I have seen of him, I think he has the talent and potential to be a good NBA player. However, with his ascension to fame, the world has also been introduced to his father, and that is the biggest reason for all of this news about Lonzo and the rest of his family.

Let me get this out of the way right now. Lonzo Ball's father is named LaVar. LaVar Ball is one of many people that never got to live out their dream of becoming a superstar athlete, and he is using his kids to shine the spotlight on himself that he always wished he could have had. There are thousands and thousands of people who played sports in high school, thought they were great, and then for any type of reason were never actually able to become great. It isn't their fault, but somewhere along the way, their greatness was denied because of someone or something else. These people can't face the fact that they just were not good enough to be a professional athlete, and they will spend the rest of their life telling people about how good they should have been. The only difference between those thousands of people and LaVar Ball is that he has at least one kid that is probably going to be able to become the star athlete he always wanted to become. I have no problem with that. Great for him, his children, and his family. What I do have a problem with though, is that he is clearly using his children to try to shine the spotlight on himself.

Parents live vicariously through their kids all the time. It happens a lot in the sports world, but it happens in all types of other walks of life as well. Maybe Bill Gates' father thought he should have been richer than his son but someone or something sabotaged that from happening. Maybe John Lennon's father believed that if he had just gotten one break that he could be even more famous than his son. I don't know, but there are parents all over the world that have successful children but deep down inside envy their children for gaining the stature that they always wished they could have had. That is clearly what is happening now with Lonzo Ball and his father.

LaVar Ball has made claims that he could beat NBA legends in a game of one-on-one basketball because "back in his day," he was better than everyone else. Really? Back in my day I played soccer. No matter how great I ever thought I was, I would never be stupid enough to say that I "could have been" better than Pele or Cristiano Ronaldo. This guy is delusional, and while I do feel bad for Lonzo for having to answer questions about his father, I have to admit that his father is also making me cheer against Lonzo.

LaVar Ball was on First Take last week as they were broadcasting from Los Angeles and said that L.A. stood for "LaVar's Awesome." It's sad that he thinks that because if anything, it should stand for "Lonzo's Awesome." He was on the show with his son and was the loudest person on the set while his son sat next to him seemingly ashamed to be associated with the guy. Instead of appreciating the fact that the only reason anyone knows him is because of his children, LaVar Ball is making daily appearances in front of cameras and acting like he has finally become the basketball superstar that he always wanted to be but never was, and I think that his ridiculous behavior is making a whole lot of people turn against his children.

Is all of this idiocy going to hurt Lonzo Ball's draft stock? No. I have heard people compare him to Jason Kidd, and while those are lofty expectations, I do think he has many of the same skills as Kidd. He sees the floor extremely well and makes everyone around him better because of his all-around game. He definitely needs to get bigger, but put him with an NBA training staff in a weight room for months at a time, and he will surely be able to add a lot of muscle. Some people believe that his father's big mouth might be something that an NBA franchise would worry about, but I don't think that is the case. All 30 NBA franchises are used to facing distractions, and in the grand scheme of things, I think an overbearing parent is far easier to deal with than some rookie that comes into the league with a criminal record or any type of injury history.

Supposedly Lonzo's two younger brothers are also planning to attend UCLA, so I think that university should be more worried about the father than whatever team ends up drafting Lonzo. Lonzo has let his play do the talking this year, and despite not winning an NCAA championship, he clearly cemented his status as one of the best college players in the country. The stupidity espoused by his father will most likely be white noise to any NBA franchise. However, LaVar Ball should at least try to consider the fact that he is clearly riding the coat tails of his kids to put himself into the spotlight that he always wished he could have had. If he realizes that, then that is fine. At the same time though, he needs to realize that he is making people cheer for his kids to fail based solely on his behavior, and that is really something that a parent should not do to their children.

Daily Giants Update: Johnathan Hankins remains unsigned, but I think the closer and closer we get to the draft, the better that is for the Giants. Other teams are going to focus more and more on the draft, and that means that Hankins is likely to accept the Giants offer and be back for the 2017-18 season.

Daily Rangers Update: The Rangers are on the brink of clinching a playoff berth with five games left to play in the regular season. The first round opponent is still unknown, but I do like the fact that Dan Girardi and Henrik Lundqvist both are back from injuries, and the Rangers should be at full strength heading into the postseason.

Daily NBA Update: Apparently the sky is falling in Cleveland, as the Cavaliers have struggled over the past few weeks, but they will still be in contention as the playoffs wind down. Kevin Durant's return is imminent, so the Warriors will be looking good, but let me say this right now: Go ahead and continue to overlook the San Antonio Spurs. They are the best team in the NBA.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: We are now only days away from the beginning of the 2017 season, and Zack Greinke will be on the mound against Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants. Arizona still may not have the best team, but at this point that doesn't matter. Right now, we should be shooting for a record of 162-0!

Friday, March 24, 2017

Give it a rest

So one of the biggest topics of the past few weeks in the sports world has been the new trend of teams playing games without their star players under the guise of resting them for the postseason. While this has been going on for a few years now, the topic seems to have been especially newsworthy recently because ABC has a new deal with the NBA to broadcast primetime games on Saturday nights, and obviously, since these are marquee games, they have featured the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors. Those teams have responded to recent broadcasts by playing without LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. The decisions by those teams, as well as many other contending teams, to rest their best players has brought about a ton of criticism and a call for something to be done.

First, let's focus on what the league is about in 2017. You can judge a player based on statistics, style of play, MVP awards, and all types of other things. But in 2017, as the league markets its star players before even its own teams, these guys are playing for one thing. They are playing for championships. Stephen Curry and LeBron James are two of the biggest names in the sport. They both have won multiple league MVP awards. In the world we live in today though, those awards mean nothing. All that matters is how many rings these guys have. Curry has one. James has three. Ask any NBA fan to put those guys in historical perspective and the first thing that will be mentioned is how many titles they won. If you don't believe that, then just ask Kevin Durant. Scoring titles? MVP awards? Those things mean nothing because he has never won a title. NBA superstars are like NFL quarterbacks. Their legacies begin with the amount of rings they have, and it is by far the most important part of how they are viewed in comparison to players of the past. So then why are these guys being hammered for resting here and there with the bigger goal of winning a championship in mind? It's because the fans and the media can never be satisfied.

Resting players started years and years ago with Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs. The best players on his teams were aging guys, and they were given games off here and there with the bigger goal of an NBA championship in mind. How did that work out? Popovich has five championship rings to show for it. Not bad, right? When he was doing it, he was praised. An 82 game regular season was grueling, and all that matters in the NBA is the postseason. Therefore, sacrificing a few games here and there in the regular season is totally fine. However, in 2017, that state of mind is completely wrong, and it is a hindrance to the sport. People can say that all they want, but until I get any legitimate proof otherwise, then those people are wrong.

I have heard people say that the teams and players owe it to the game to put forth their best effort every night. That seems totally logical. If a Warriors fan pays for a ticket to a game and then ends up going and watching a team led by James Michael McAdoo and JaVale McGee, I understand why they would feel disappointed. NBA tickets cost a lot of money, and fans expect to see their teams at full strength each and every night. However, would that same fan sacrifice one regular season game for the chance to see his or her team win another NBA title? I bet they would. Would a Los Angeles Clippers fan love to sit down on a Saturday night and watch their team face off against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that was playing its top players? Of course they would. But would that same fan rather change the channel that night and then sit down one night in June and watch the Clippers beat the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals? I bet they would. This is just another example of sports fans having the real power but refusing to exercise that power.

If resting players here and there during the regular season made no difference, then why are so many teams doing it? It is a question that could have been asked to baseball players two decades ago. If taking steroids didn't make you hit more home runs, then why are you taking them? The guys took them for a reason. These teams are sitting these players for a reason. People smarter than you and I use all kinds of analytics to study these things, and if teams pay them to make such decisions, then who are we to question them? If organizations wanted our opinions, they would have hired us. But they didn't. They hired people who say that resting players periodically will benefit a team in the long run.

Old, hard-headed men say that resting players wouldn't be accepted "back in the day." Well do you know what was being said about those same guys when they were playing? Those same guys were being viewed as a bunch of babies just like the players of today are being viewed.

Wilt Chamberlain played in the league from 1959 through 1973. Do you know how many minutes per game he averaged for his entire career? 45.8. Michael Jordan and Patrick Ewing recently said that they don't believe in resting players and were hailed by thousands as tough guys who had an old-school mentality. Do you know how many minutes those guys averaged per game in their careers? Jordan averaged 38.3 and Ewing averaged 34.3. Over the course of an 82 game regular season, that means Chamberlain played 3,755 minutes, Jordan played 3,140 and Ewing played 2,812. You know what that means? Jordan and Ewing were soft compared to Chamberlain. Sitting out for 10 minutes each game? Step it up guys, you've got nothing on Wilt.

We watch baseball now and are used to things like long relievers and closers. During this past World Series, it was almost like the Indians and Royals were racing to which team could get to their bullpen fastest. Do you know what Walter Johnson or Cy Young would say about something like that? They would be appalled at how soft modern day starting pitchers were. When they played, there was no such thing as a relief pitcher. If you started a game, you ended it as well.

The point here is that while the game of basketball still is based around putting a round ball through a round hoop, there are a ton of things that change from year to year, and especially from generation to generation. So for anyone complaining about teams resting players here and there, then stop buying tickets or stop watching the games on television. Until fans start doing that en masse, no one is going to remember the Cavaliers playing shorthanded against the Clippers last Saturday. 10 years from now, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James are going to be judged, first and foremost, based on how many titles they won. No one is going to remember them sitting out one game in the middle of March. Fans and media have made the NBA about nothing but winning championships, and if this is part of that process, then they just need to deal with it. Maybe Patrick Ewing doesn't approve of it, but when someone mentions Patrick Ewing in terms of his historical impact on the sport, what is the first thing that they bring up? It's that he never won a title. If he took a few games off here and there during the regular season, then maybe he wouldn't be known as someone who never won a ring. Tim Duncan, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry might have taken some games off, but I bet that Ewing would love to have traded places with them when they were polishing their championship rings and he was spending his summer wishing that he could have accomplished what they did.

Daily NBA Update: Golden State and Cleveland are the clear favorites to reach the NBA Finals, but they have both been unspectacular in recent weeks. I still fully expect those two teams to be the last two standing, but the Celtics, Spurs, Rockets, and Wizards are not exactly going to roll over in the playoffs.

Daily Rangers Update: Henrik Lundqvist missing time may hopefully end up as a blessing in disguise, but this team is in the same position it has been in for years now. Anything less than a Stanley Cup will be unacceptable, and at this point I just don't see that happening.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: The regular season is getting closer and closer, and this is, sadly, probably the best time of the year for Arizona. Hopefully when the calendar turns to June we will still be within shouting distance of the top of the division, but I am not setting my expectations very high.

Daily Giants Update: The draft is about a month away, and I like what the team has done thus far in free agency. The addition of Brandon Marshall makes our receiving corps one of the best in the entire NFL, and I liked the signing of D.J. Fluker, who can play multiple positions on the offensive line. I still think that adding another offensive lineman would get great, and any depth we can get on the defensive side of the ball will be great as well. We are still months away from mini camp, but I like how the team looks right now.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Spring is (I think) in the air

Despite the mounds of snow outside my window, Spring Training is well underway, and that means it is time for more predictions that are sure to go wrong. As usual, this is the time of year when fans of all 30 teams are optimistic, and I feel that way about my Arizona Diamondbacks. Just like with my NFL predictions, I will recuse myself from previewing the Diamondbacks because my preview will be completely biased, but as for all of the other teams, here we go. I'll start in the American League.

AL East
This was pretty much without question the best division in all of baseball last season, and I think it will be tough again, but one team seems destined to distance themselves from the pack in 2017.

Boston Red Sox
Coming off a 93 win season in 2016, I think Boston is in position to be just as good in 2017, and maybe even better. Rick Porcello won the American League Cy Young award last year, and Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts look like up and coming superstars. As if that weren't enough, Boston added Chris Sale in the offseason, and youngsters like Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley could join forces with Betts and become the best young outfield in all of baseball.

Losing David Ortiz will obviously hurt for reasons both on and off the field, but the Red Sox still have a group of veterans that can most likely make up for that. The only problem I see here is that the health of David Price is already in jeopardy, although after initially expecting to hear the terrifying words of "Tommy John surgery," I think Boston dodged that bullet. Instead, Price is probably going to miss the early part of the season, but the pitching staff can make up for his absence for the time being. The Red Sox are without question a team to be reckoned with in 2017.

Ceiling: It is pretty simple here. Fans in Boston should have their sights set on the World Series.

Floor: This team is too talented to fall off completely. If Price is unable to get healthy and some of the youngsters struggle, it will put a dent in Boston's plans, but I really think that at worst, Boston will only just miss out on a Wild Card berth.

Reality: Like I said, there is too much talent here for this team to be anything worse than above average. When October rolls around, I expect to see the Red Sox in the playoffs.

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is coming off of an ALCS appearance last year, and this team is still very formidable. However, Edwin Encarnacion left Toronto to sign with the Cleveland Indians, and that will be an enormous blow to what was (and still might be) one of the best offenses in the game. The lineup is still strong though, and while the pitching staff is not full of Cy Young contending names, they will not have to be throwing shutouts left and right in order to win games thanks to guys like Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Troy Tulowitzki.

Ceiling: Despite the huge loss of Encarnacion, I certainly think Toronto can still make the playoffs. Guys like Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman might not be household names quite yet, but they all have the potential to win 15 games, so I think the staff can be good enough to at least earn a playoff berth.

Floor: The only way that this team will not score a lot of runs is if some of their big bats get hurt, although none of them have any sort of severe injury history. I am far more worried about the pitching staff here when it comes to failing to reach expectations. I don't think that Toronto could be abysmal, but if they don't get some breaks, they will not be playing in October.

Reality: Losing Encarnacion is a hug blow to this lineup. However, they still will score a lot of runs. Everything here will hinge on how good the pitching can be, and I think it should be at least good enough to put the team in playoff contention, but I doubt they will be able to return to the ALCS.

Baltimore Orioles
Buck Showalter will never live down his decision not to use Zach Britton in Baltimore's Wild Card game last year against Toronto after the spectacular year that Britton had, but there is nothing that can be done about that now. This team is a lot like the Blue Jays in many ways, although their lineup does not have the same explosive potential. Britton had a historically great season as the closer last year, and it is just unfair to expect him to repeat that, although he should still be one of the best in the business. The AL East is tough though, so Baltimore will be challenged throughout the season.

Ceiling: Manny Machado is an up and coming superstar, and Baltimore still has multiple guys in the middle of the order that can hit a whole lot of home runs. The rotation is made up of guys who were formerly potential aces, have not lived up to that potential yet, but are still pretty good. If Machado can play at an MVP level (which is possible), the guys in the middle of the order can offset their strikeouts with a lot of home runs, and names like Gausman, Tillman, and Bundy become known throughout the baseball world, Baltimore could potentially challenge for a Wild Card spot.

Floor: Camden Yards is a hitter friendly park, and when Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo are your big bats, that is a good thing. However, those guys are also likely to strike out a bunch. If their batting order is more bust than boom, and their young rotation does not develop, Baltimore could potentially be out of the division race by August.

Reality: The one thing that seems almost certain in Baltimore is how good Manny Machado can be. Not only can he pick it at third base, but he can hit it all over the ballpark. Aside from him though, the team is filled with solid but unspectacular names. The chances of Zach Britton equaling what he did in 2016 are pretty much zero, although he should still be a top closer. However, much of their rotation and much of their lineup is still too inconsistent for my liking. One day Chris Davis might hit three home runs and Chris Tillman might throw a shutout, but the next day Davis might strike out four times and Kevin Gausman might get lit up. Maybe Baltimore challenges for a playoff berth, but I think that is about as optimistic as their fans should be.

New York Yankees
Talk about unfamiliar territory. For pretty much the past 20 years, the Yankees have been willing to spend endless amounts of money to win at all costs. However, it seems like that trend may have finally ended. While it might not provide Yankee fans with the immediate satisfaction they have come to expect, it may be the start of a new kind of outlook for the franchise. There are still older players on the roster, but the all or nothing mentality seems to be gone, as there are a bunch of fresh faces as well. We may not see the Yankees in the playoffs this year, but their fans still should be interested in the team they will put out on the field.

Ceiling: For the first time in years and years, the Yankees are somewhat centering their fortunes around youth. Gary Sanchez was spectacular in his abridged debut in 2016, and he now has a full season to live up to the high standard that he set. Other young names like Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorious can hopefully become mainstays in New York's lineup. If this mix of young players can continue to improve, I think it is possible that the Yankees get somewhat close to a playoff berth, but the American League is just too good for that to happen yet. The Yankees need to focus on building a young core in 2017, and it will bring about a lot of optimism going into 2018.

Floor: The floor here is all about the pitching staff. C.C. Sabathia is well past his prime and Michael Pineda seems to have proven himself to be more of a wasted talent than the potential ace many once considered him to be. The back end of the rotation is full of youth but also full of question marks. The Yankees offense should be pretty good, but if their rotation is hit by injuries, inconsistency, or both, the Yankees will have no shot to compete in this division.

Reality: Sanchez is the up and coming star here, but guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Matt Holliday, Aroldis Chapman, and Masahiro Tanaka are still on this team. While I doubt we will ever see the Yankees in full rebuilding mode like we saw the Houston Astros or the Philadelphia 76ers, this year will be pretty much as close as it gets for the Yankees. With a full season to work, I think 2017 will be a great glimpse into the future for this team. Can Gary Sanchez be a mainstay in the middle of the order? Can the guys at the back end of the rotation now eventually become solid starters? Will Dellin Betances, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks become household names? This could be the year that we find out the answers to all of those questions. I highly doubt this team is in playoff contention as the season winds down.

Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays finished last year 25 games out of first place in the AL East, and they return a roster that is mostly similar to that one. Some players did under achieve in 2016 (Chris Archer lost 19 games), so maybe Tampa Bay won't find themselves 25 games out of first place, but I still don't think they will be able to come close to the top of this division.

Ceiling: Chris Archer was supposed to be their up and coming ace last year, and he ended up losing 19 games. Evan Longoria remains the mainstay in the middle of this lineup, and I do not expect that to change in 2017. He is surrounded with a cast of boom or bust types, as well as middling names that have been let go by other teams for various reasons. Just like the lineup, the pitching staff remains mostly the same, but it is time for guys like Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb to produce and not just be mediocre guys eating innings as part of an average rotation. I will not expect that anymore until I see it happen, and therefore I think that the best this team can hope for is to avoid the basement of the AL East and maybe get within shouting distance of third place.

Floor: Like I said, it is about time for many of the guys on this team to either put up or shut up. Logan Forsythe, Steven Souza, Kevin Kiermaier, Alex Colome, Drew Smyly, Tim Beckham, and multiple others need to either prove that they are worthy of the big leagues or the organization needs to move on without them. This team could easily finish last in the division.

Reality: Archer still has a ton of talent and despite his bad record in 2016, he still struck out a lot of guys. I doubt he will lose 19 games again this year. Longoria should be good again in the middle of the order, and they do have some other guys that can drive in some runs. However, the pitching staff still has a ton of untapped potential and a lot of these guys are running out of time to live up to expectations. I don't expect this team to be anywhere close to the top of the AL East in 2017.

Daily Rangers Update: Despite Henrik Lundqvist suffering what seems to be a minor injury, the team still has one of the best records in the Eastern Conference. With 12 games left to play, 100 points is still within reach, and 100 points means your team has had a highly successful regular season. If they can keep pace with the teams above them in the conference, this time off might be a blessing in disguise for Lundqvist, as well as for Dan Girardi, who has been out but should be back.

Daily NBA Update: As the regular season winds down, all that seems to be in question now is who will win the MVP and who will be playing in the NBA Finals. Russell Westbrook got his 33rd triple-double of the season last night, so that means he needs eight more to tie Oscar Robertson's single season record. Westbrook is also still averaging a triple-double, something that has not been done since Robertson did it decades ago. Oklahoma City currently sits in the 6th spot in the Western Conference standings, but I think that is about where most people expected them to be. It seems as though the entire team is playing for Westbrook right now, and I really do believe that he is going to finish the season averaging a triple-double, and if he does that I think it will be impossible to give the MVP award to anyone but him.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: The team has been hitting a bunch over the past couple of days, which is nice to see, but we all know that Spring Training numbers mean absolutely nothing once the regular season begins. The spots at the back end of the rotation are still up for grabs, but I do like what Taijuan Walker has shown thus far. If he can provide a boost for the rotation, that would be a huge plus.

Daily Giants Update: The draft is getting closer and closer, and in my opinion the biggest area of need is the offensive line. The team signed D.J. Fluker, who can play both guard and tackle. I like that move, but I still think it would be nice to add another piece to the line, and I would love for that piece to be Ryan Ramczyk, but I'm not sure he will be available when the Giants pick at #23. A versatile defensive lineman would also be great if Jonathan Hankins leaves, and while it does seem likely that he will be gone, the further we get into the offseason, the closer we get to him returning, so maybe the team will be fortunate enough to bring back Hankins while also shoring up the offensive line in the draft as well.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Loyalty vs Winning

Loyalty and winning are two sports discussion topics that will always be around. Whether it pertains to players or coaches, and if it is professional sports or college sports, these two things can often times be seen as polar opposites. The subject has come up multiple times recently in both the NFL and the NBA, and it is a subject that is always interesting. The three people the discussion has centered around recently are DeMarcus Cousins, Joe Thomas, and Anthony Davis, but it is something that we could really discuss almost constantly.

Trace it back to LeBron James going to Miami if you want (although in my opinion you would be totally wrong in doing so), and more recently to Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors, but it seems as though loyalty and winning are usually at odds, even when the two things hardly have anything to do with one another.

When it came to James, his decision to sign with the Miami Heat years ago was met with an unparalleled amount of criticism. Those who prioritized loyalty said that he should have stayed in Cleveland because that was the team that drafted him. They said that he owed it to the team and the city to stay there and win a title because "that's how the guys in the past always did it." They made it seem like he was in some way breaking the laws of sports by leaving Cleveland for what he thought was a better situation for himself in Miami. As a free agent, the only person who could make that choice was him, and he chose to sign with the Heat. That is what the term "free agent" means. He can choose to play wherever he wants and for whatever reason he wants.

This past offseason when Kevin Durant left Oklahoma City to join the Golden State Warriors, Durant was widely criticized as well. Not only was he leaving the team that drafted him, but he was going to the team that beat him in the Western Conference Finals. But he was a free agent also, so he should not care one bit about where other people want him to play, because the only decision that matters is the one he makes.

At the Pro Bowl just under a month ago, some of the same questions arose about Joe Thomas. Thomas is a ten year veteran who has played his entire career with the Cleveland Browns. Over the course of those ten years, the Browns have had a winning record a grand total of one time. The overall record of the team in that span of ten years is 48-112. He could have left multiple times, but he has been a Brown for his entire career thus far. He says he wants to remain in Cleveland to be able to help turn the team around and therefore gets praised for his loyalty. I hate to break it to Thomas and Browns fans everywhere, but I find it very hard to believe that the team will be any good any time soon, especially in a very tough AFC North division. Any sensible person has to believe that for however long Thomas is able to play, he is not going to get anywhere close to winning a Super Bowl. At this point, I find it very hard to believe that he will ever even get close to playing in a playoff game. I hear so many former athletes that never won a championship say that their biggest disappointment was never being able to reach the top of the mountain. Is Joe Thomas going into the Hall of Fame whenever he decides to retire? Yes. However, 20 years from now he is most likely going to be remembered as a great player on a bad team. I cannot fault him for showing loyalty to the Browns, but if he were to leave to try to win a Super Bowl, I would not fault him at all for making that choice.

Next up is DeMarcus Cousins. He is due to be a free agent at the conclusion of this season, and could sign a deal worth over $200 million if he were to stay in Sacramento. He says that he is happy with the Kings and at this point seems like he will remain with the team. However, Cousins has also hinted at times that he would like to get the chance to play with some of his former college teammates like either John Wall or Eric Bledsoe. As of today, the Kings are only a game and a half out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoff picture, but if they were to qualify for the postseason, they would most likely end up playing a far superior team like the Warriors or Spurs. Are they going to beat either of those teams in a seven game series? Barring multiple catastrophic injuries, a miracle of biblical proportions, and hell freezing over, no they are not going to.

The prospect of Cousins signing with the Washington Wizards to play with John Wall is actually a very intriguing one because that seems to be a team on the rise in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards are healthy and hitting on all cylinders at the moment, and while they still are not the best team in the Eastern Conference, if they were able to sign Cousins they could certainly challenge the Cavaliers going forward. Cousins has thus far not given any sort of indication that he wants to leave Sacramento, but when the offseason comes, you never know what will happen until he actually signs on the dotted line somewhere. If he stays in Sacramento, half of the NBA world will praise him for being loyal. If he chooses to go elsewhere, the other half will praise him for putting winning ahead of the money.

Recent rumors have also sprung up about Anthony Davis. While he still has multiple years left on his contract with the New Orleans Pelicans, it has already been said that he could possibly team up with Russell Westbrook in Los Angeles to try to resurrect the Lakers some time in the future. Once again, if he decides to resign in New Orleans, some people will praise him for being loyal. If he chooses to go to another team where he has a better chance to win a title, those same people will crush him for giving up on the Pelicans. You can never please everyone, and in the cases of Joe Thomas, DeMarcus Cousins, and Anthony Davis, that is going to be true once their careers end.

My real opinion on this is that why are these guys going to be criticized no matter what they do? Sometimes the best part of a successful life is timing. All three of these guys are playing for the teams that drafted them. Yet, no matter how good they are and no matter what sport you play, a team needs more than one great player to win a championship. There is a reason that the Browns, Kings, and Pelicans are constantly picking at or near the top of the draft, and it has nothing to do with Thomas, Cousins, or Davis. Don't blame those guys.

Winning in sports takes more than simply finding a superstar to lead a team. Individuals don't win championships. It starts from the top down. Some owners care only about making money, while other owners care more about putting a good product on the field or court. Some organizations hire general managers that make great decisions and are able to put together successful teams. Other organizations hire general managers that are inept and coaches who cannot get the job done.

It is easy for guys that have won titles and fans that support teams that have won titles to criticize players who were dropped into circumstances that were much worse than their own. Did Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant or Tom Brady win multiple titles with one team? Yes, they did. But were they also put in far better circumstances than guys who never won a title? The answer to that is yes as well. Their teams were managed better. They had better supporting casts. They had better coaching.

Do not praise a guy like Joe Thomas for his loyalty but at the same time point out that he never won a Super Bowl. The Browns have been an utterly disastrous organization for his entire career. They have gone through numerous coaches and numerous general managers. They hit on Thomas in the draft, but they swung and missed a whole lot of other times. The same can be said for Cousins and Davis. It is easy for guys like Brady or Jordan or Bryant to be loyal when they find themselves surrounded by competent people. If Brady was drafted by the Jets or Jordan was drafted by the Nets or Bryant was drafted by the Timberwolves, could you blame any of them for wanting to leave because of the constant ineptitude of those organizations? In the eyes of any honest person, no, you could not blame them one bit.

Karl Malone and Gary Payton are NBA legends. However, when you think of those guys, what is one of the first things that comes to mind? Neither of them ever won a championship. At the end of their careers they teamed up with Kobe Bryant on the Lakers to try to win a title, but they were unable to do so. Is that being completely loyal to the teams that drafted them? No, it isn't. They wanted to win, and the organizations in Utah and Seattle were overall not good enough to win. It wasn't because of Malone and Payton, it was because of the organization as a whole.

So for Davis and Thomas and Cousins, it seems to be a situation of damned if you do or damned if you don't. If they want to remain with their incompetent organizations, then they are loyal but after their careers are over, the first thing we will point to is the fact that they never won a title. Yet, if they decide to go elsewhere, then they are breaking the laws of loyalty in sports. In my mind it makes no sense and it is unfair to all of these guys.

Does Anthony Davis want his biography to say that he never won anything, but dammit he was loyal to a horrible organization, or does he want it to say that he was a great player who won a championship at the highest level. I can't speak for him, but if you listen to any former athlete that never won a title, it is pretty clear that he would rather win it all then be the best player on an annually bad team.

There is a reason that the Pittsburgh Steelers are constantly in the playoffs and the Cleveland Browns are constantly in contention for the worst record in the league. There is a reason that the San Antonio Spurs have won so many titles over the past two decades while the Pelicans and Kings are perennial losers. If a wife is loyal to a husband that has no money and is never home, would you blame her for trying to find a better situation? If an employee is loyal to a company that is continually losing money and laying off employees, would you blame him or her for looking for a new job? The answer is easy. It is a resounding no.

So if Joe Thomas or Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins want to stay with their current teams who all will be losing for the foreseeable future, then that is fine by me. However, if any or all of them choose to move on to a better situation and surround themselves with more competent people, don't get on a pedestal and criticize them. Because if you were in the same situation, wouldn't you rather be a part of a successful enterprise than be the best employee in an enterprise that is known for nothing other than failure?

Daily Rangers Update: The team lost to the Islanders last night, but they have looked much better recently and with 25 games left to play have the fourth best record in the Eastern Conference. 25 games in the NHL is still a ton of time though, so hopefully they can continue to play well and enter the playoffs healthy and on a roll.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: Spring Training is right around the corner, and the Diamondbacks added some nice pieces this offseason. Fernando Rodney seems like he is in line to be the new closer, and the starting rotation will hopefully be better as well. I like the infield, and the outfield seems pretty good as long as the injury bug doesn't strike there.
I do have concerns with the middle relief and the catcher position though. However, there is still plenty of time before the start of the season to hopefully get those spots sorted out. It would also be nice if an All Star player didn't get seriously hurt two days before the season began like A.J. Pollock last year.
I will preview the baseball season some time in the future, but right now when everyone is healthy and no one has lost a game, there are 30 teams that have a whole bunch of optimism heading into the 2017 season.

Daily NBA Update: NBA All Star weekend is one of the biggest events in all of our professional sports, and that is about to begin. However, it is more about the celebrities and the fanfare than the actual game. I don't know how much of it I will actually watch, but in all candor, pretty much none of it really matters.

Daily Giants Update: The team released Victor Cruz and Rashad Jennings this past week, and while it was especially tough to say goodbye to Cruz, it was pretty much a forgone conclusion after seeing his role so limited this past season. Adrian Peterson has given multiple indications that he seems interested in somehow joining the team, and I have seen multiple mock drafts saying that the Giants will go for a defensive lineman in the first round. That makes me believe that either Jonathan Hankins or Jason Pierre-Paul will leave, and maybe even both of them. In that case, we would need to bolster the defensive line.
As far as Peterson goes, he seems to be past his prime and he has been injured a lot in recent years, but if the price is right, I would be more than happy to see him play for the Giants. Paul Perkins came on at the end of the year both as a runner and catching passes out of the backfield, so if Peterson were able to run anywhere close to as well as he has done for the majority of his career and we could use Perkins as a situational back, I would like that going into next season.

Friday, January 27, 2017

NFL Predictions Review, Part Two

Yesterday was the AFC East and AFC North, so let's follow that up with what happened in the other two AFC divisions.

AFC South

I think that most would agree that, top to bottom, this is the worst division in at least the AFC, and probably the entire NFL. None of the teams are strong in all facets of the game, and they all have multiple needs to address this offseason.

Houston Texans - I had them possibly making the playoffs but I did not have much faith in Brock Osweiler. I don't think I was the only one that felt that way, and that is exactly what happened. They finished 9-7, which was good enough to win the division, but they had no chance against the Patriots, and they were disposed of by Tom Brady & Co.

The obvious strength here is the defense, and it seems like it will only get better going forward. They played New England without former defensive MVP J.J. Watt and still rattled him, so when Watt returns from injury next year, they can only get better. Jadeveon Clowney was finally healthy and had a nice year, and names like Whitney Mercilus and Benardrick McKinney should be recognized. Going in to next season, this could potentially be a top defense.

The problem is on the other side of the ball. Houston paid Brock Osweiler a ton of money to be their quarterback based on a very limited sample size of production, and his first year was pretty much as bad as it could get for the money he was being paid. Lamar Miller had a nice year out of the backfield, and Will Fuller had a very good rookie season. Moving forward though, the glaring weakness is at the quarterback position. Either Osweiler improves, backup Tom Savage becomes a diamond in the rough, or the defense is going to have to be spectacular next year for Houston to have a chance to compete with the best teams in the league.

Tennessee Titans - I went out on a limb here picking Tennessee to win the division, but I am happy to say that my prediction actually looks pretty good as of today. The Titans had won a combined five games in the previous two seasons leading up to this year, but I thought they might have a chance to surprise people and compete for the division crown, and they did just that by going 9-7.

DeMarco Murray, while not the elite rusher he was in Dallas, still had a nice year, and with him and Derrick Henry in the backfield, Tennessee seems set at that spot. Marcus Mariota still has room to improve, but as long as he is aided by a good running game, I think he is good enough to get the job done. Jack Conklin was a great pick (who I wish would have fallen to the Giants), and with him and Taylor Lewan anchoring each side of the offensive line, I really like what Tennessee is doing.

The Titans have both the 7th and 13th overall picks in the upcoming draft, and Mike Williams could possibly be sitting there for them to take. Wide receiver is the weakest part of their offense, so if they were able to get him with one of those picks and then add some depth on defense with the other choice, I think Tennessee will absolutely be able to compete for a playoff spot in the upcoming season.

Indianapolis Colts - I had them finishing around 8-8, and that is exactly what happened. Andrew Luck is a franchise quarterback who will be entrenched under center for the Colts for at least the next decade, but management has done a terrible job of putting adequate talent around him thus far in his career. That is why general manager Ryan Grigson was fired this past week. Head coach Chuck Pagano will seemingly stick around, so Indianapolis will have to find a GM that wants to work with Pagano, but getting rid of Grigson was definitely something that the franchise needed to do.

Ryan Kelly seems like a good investment the team made in the first round last year, but overall the offensive line still needs work. T.Y. Hilton is a Pro Bowl caliber receiver, but aside from him, Luck needs more weapons to work with. The same is true on the defensive side of the ball, as they have a few nice pieces, but for the most part they are lacking. Installing a new general manager with a better plan than Grigson will be a nice start, but at this point, this team has a whole lot of holes to fill.

Jacksonville Jaguars - I thought that maybe Jacksonville could have a shot to win 7 or 8 games, but that it was probably going to be a long shot, and I think many people thought this team could be even better than that. Well, we all were expecting way too much here. As is the case for most teams, it all begins with the quarterback position, and I think we are almost at the breaking point with Blake Bortles. He was poor again this season, and I think he should get a shot next year, but if the team is out of playoff contention by Thanksgiving, I think they should already be thinking about finding another solution at the position.

On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars have a whole lot of potential, but not too many results to show for it. The fact that they are picking fourth overall should tell us all we need to know, but if they miss on that pick, they could be looking at another restart a year from now with another quarterback, and an already thin fan base possibly even getting thinner.

AFC West

From top to bottom, I think this is clearly the toughest division in the AFC. Both Oakland and Kansas City made the playoffs, and the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos also reside in the West as well. If the Chargers are the worst team in your division, then the three teams above them must be pretty good.

Kansas City Chiefs - I do not think that I was the only person expecting this team to make the playoffs, and they did not disappoint. They went 12-4 and were downed in the playoffs by the Steelers by what some said was a questionable late game call, although I think that it was a correct one.

As has been the case in recent years with this team, the offense was efficient, and the defense was excellent. Outside of New England, I think that Travis Kelce has developed into the best tight end in the NFL. The only difference between Kelce and Rob Gronkowski is that Kelce is always on the field and Gronkowski is injury-prone. And speaking of injury-prone, Jamaal Charles once again missed a ton of time, but Spencer Ware did a pretty nice job filling in for him, and as of right now, it seems like the Chiefs were the team that found the late-round gem in the draft in the form of Tyreek Hill. Hill looks like he has the potential to be someone like Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush that can be effective running the ball, catching passes, and also returning kicks, but he could possibly be better than both of those guys. He is going to be a unique and explosive weapon for Kansas City going forward.

Eric Berry and Dontari Poe are great on defense, and they are not alone. Alex Smith and Andy Reid have yet to capture Super Bowl titles, but if the Chiefs make a few nice offseason moves, I think that 2017 could be the best chance they both have to attain that goal.

Oakland Raiders - I thought people were a year early on this team, but I was wrong there. The Oakland (maybe soon to be Las Vegas) Raiders are a force to be reckoned with, and I think they have pieces in place that will be around for a long time. Derek Carr was having a spectacular season under center until a really unfortunate injury late in the year that by all means ended the team's season. The Raiders looked like a legitimate contender in the AFC, but losing their star quarterback so late in the season pretty much killed their chances, as would be the case for any contending team. With that aside though, I really like this team going forward.

On the offensive side of the ball, I think this team is becoming one of the best in the NFL. Derek Carr looks like a surefire franchise quarterback who still has a lot of potential to get even better, the offensive line is one of the best in the entire NFL, they have some nice running backs, and Amari Cooper is a star in the making at wide receiver. Get ready to hear about these names now, because it looks like the Raiders offense is only scratching the surface of how good it could possibly become.

There are still some questions on the defense, but there are also some guys who seem to be (or already are) upcoming stars. Khalil Mack is already in the conversation of best defensive players in the entire NFL, and you should learn the names of guys like David Amerson and Karl Joseph. The first priority for Oakland in the draft should be strengthening the rest of the defense, but if they were able to do that and add another weapon or two on the offensive side of the ball, this team is going to be very good.

Denver Broncos - Obviously, as the defending Super Bowl champions, the Broncos could not be overlooked going into this season, but with Peyton Manning retiring and multiple key members of the defense defecting via free agency, I think most expected somewhat of a drop off here, and that is exactly what happened. Despite losing guys like Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan, Denver still had enough talent on defense to be very good, and they still were. The true weakness of the team was on the other side of the ball though, and it was a glaring weakness for most of this past season.

Losing one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of football is obviously something that no team would be able to overcome, and that was just the case for the Broncos this season. Trevor Siemian played almost all of the year under center, and while he was serviceable, his talent by no means jumped off the page. They used a first round pick last season on Paxton Lynch, and he got only a very small amount of playing time, so we never really got to see how he looked. I have heard people mention Denver as a destination for veteran free agent quarterbacks who might be available, but in my opinion, I think that Lynch should at least get a legitimate shot to play going into next season. He may not be the second coming of Peyton Manning, but should they really try to go after guys like Jay Cutler or Tony Romo or Colin Kaepernick? I don't think so.

San Diego Chargers - I had them finishing 5-11 and in last place in the AFC West, and that is exactly what happened. San Diego does have some talent, but unless they make some big moves this offseason, I don't see them being able to compete for a playoff spot next year. Philip Rivers is an underappreciated player because he has pretty much never gotten close to winning a Super Bowl, and he is still a very good quarterback. Melvin Gordon had a good year at running back, but they just do not have a ton of game breakers on offense. Joey Bosa looks like he will be a force, so that was a good choice at the top of the draft this past year, but the defense still needs help.

San Diego will be picking ninth overall in the draft this year, so I think they go for the best player available, and if they hit on the pick, it could possibly move the improvement process along a bit quicker, but with Philip Rivers entering his 13th season in the league, they probably need to use more than the draft to get better or else they could finish at the bottom of the division again next year and he could be one year closer to the end of the line.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Reviewing my NFL predictions, Part One

With just over a week left until Super Bowl, I think this is a good time to not only look back at the preseason predictions of all the "experts," but look back at mine as well. I will provide you with some Super Bowl perspective soon, but since the NFL loves to delay its biggest game forever and ever, I first want to see how I did at projecting what would happen this season.

AFC East

Over the past decade, this has been pretty much the easiest division to predict, and while I may have gotten it wrong on the bottom, it is almost impossible to get it wrong at the top.

New England Patriots - I said that once Tom Brady returns, the Patriots should be fine, and they will be playing in Super Bowl 51, so that looks pretty good right now. The fact that they went 3-1 in the first four games without Brady just proves how great Bill Belichick and his staff really are, but if you know anything about the NFL, you would have picked the Patriots to win this division, and once again, you would have been correct.

Miami Dolphins - I said that 8-8 was the best they could expect, and the team ended up going 10-6 and making the playoffs. Jay Ajayi went from someone no one knew to an up and coming star, and their receiving corps was very impressive. The defense was better than expected, and they were probably the most surprising playoff team in the league. The quarterback situation is still not exactly stellar though, as Matt Moore ended up starting their lone playoff game instead of Ryan Tannehill. Ajayi looks like he could be a stud at running back, and they have a few other very nice pieces, but I still question whoever they have at QB going forward.

Buffalo Bills - At best, I had them sneaking into the playoffs, and they ended up finishing 7-9. I had serious questions about Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, and I still have serious questions about that position going forward. Head coach Rex Ryan has been fired, and while I understand the perspective of some people saying that a head coach should be given a few years to install his own system, I also think that we have seen enough from Ryan (as head coach of the Bills and Jets) to learn that he is nothing more than a very good defensive coordinator.

They lost Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland to injury, so the defense was not as good as expected, but until this team finds a quarterback, they will have a very tough time competing for a playoff spot in the AFC.

New York Jets - Maybe it is because I live in New York, maybe it is because of the relative success Ryan Fitzpatrick had last year, or maybe it is just because I am crazy, but I expected far too much from the Jets this past season.

The quarterback position was absolutely awful, the offensive weapons did not live up to the success of last season, and the defense came nowhere close to meeting the lofty expectations. Ryan Fitzpatrick was arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL this past season, while Geno Smith and Bryce Petty were not much better. I would still give Petty a shot to start next season, but I think they should already be looking at Christian Hackenberg as a potential starter. It was a mess of a season for the Jets, as they finished 5-11, and they have a whole lot of rebuilding to do.

AFC North

Much like the AFC East, the AFC North has been somewhat predictable over the past few seasons. It might be trendy to pick the Ravens or the Bengals, and they have certainly had some success in recent years, but the best team in this division has been, is, and likely will continue to be the Pittsburgh Steelers. The other team? The Cleveland Browns? Well, they are absolutely dreadful.

Pittsburgh Steelers - I had this team winning one playoff game, and I hit it right on the head with that one! I also said the strength of the team was the offense and the weakness was the defense, and while I hit it on the head again there, I don't think that saying that prior to the season was actually any kind of outrageous suggestion, because it was pretty obvious where this team stood.

Pittsburgh won the division and then lost to New England in the AFC Championship game, and the reason why was just what myself and pretty much everyone else predicted. The offensive line is very good, but obviously the stars of the team are Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell.

The front seven on the defensive side of the ball is pretty good, as Ryan Shazier and Bud Dupree made their names known over the course of this season, but they still need help in the secondary. We are still a few months away from the draft and the offseason officially starting, but Pittsburgh was on everyone's radar this year, and that should be no different when training camp opens next season.

Baltimore Ravens - I said at best this team could be 8-8, and that is exactly how they finished. Baltimore had multiple aging veterans that I was unsure about, and they also had a lot of other spots that were being filled by unproven young players. That mixture brought in a mixed bag of results, but I think they did find a few nice pieces for the future. Ronnie Stanley did a pretty nice job stepping in to a role on the offensive line, and Kenneth Dixon came in as a fourth round pick and seems like he will be a nice piece coming out of the backfield going into the 2017 season.

In what was most likely a completely under the radar move though, young linebacker Zachary Orr announced his retirement only about a week ago. He had a spectacular season, and was the best player on Baltimore's defense, so that is going to be a big blow to the team. They have a lot of other young options at that position, but when Orr announced his retirement, it certainly must have been a huge blow for the team.

Going forward, I think the Ravens do have some good things on the horizon, but they do definitely have some areas that need serious improvement as well.

Cleveland Browns - I had this team finishing last in the division before the season began, and I honestly don't know how anyone could have figured differently. I said at worst, they will be picking first overall in the upcoming draft, and that is exactly what is going to happen.

Pretty much everything was a mess on this roster this season, and it began at the quarterback position. It seems as though Robert Griffin III has locked himself into the slot of shooting star quarterback, as he got hurt early in the season once again, and I do not think he has a starting job anywhere in the NFL coming any time soon. Cody Kessler started a bunch of games, and the man I believe to be the most worthless backup QB in the entire NFL, Josh McCown, once again failed miserably just like he always does.

The Browns have endless amounts of needs, and with the first pick in this draft, I think they should take Myles Garrett because he is the best player available and they could use any talent they can get, no matter the position. Without a quarterback, and without a whole lot of other things, the Browns are still a long way from getting anywhere close to the playoffs, but if they can even have a mediocre draft this April, it will be a good start.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

A sequel even better than the original

It is rare that sequels live up to the expectations of the original, especially when the original is already a classic. Godfather 2 was a great movie, but the original was one of the greatest movies ever made. The Blueprint 2? Good album, but not on the level of the original Blueprint album. Miami vs San Antonio in the NBA Finals in 2013? Classic series. The rematch the following season? Not nearly as good. However, there are some exceptions to that rule, and last night we got one of those exceptions.

The college football national championship game last year, despite a serious lack of defense, was extremely exciting. The game was close all the way through, and after a wild fourth quarter, the Alabama Crimson Tide beat the Clemson Tigers by a score of 45-40. After both teams reached the final again this season, expectations were that no matter who won, it would not be a game that was as exciting as the original. What we ended up getting was not only an exciting game, but one that was, in my opinion, even better than the one we got last year.

I don't want to give a play-by-play recap, so if you missed the game, well, shame on you. A day after it happened though, I would like to try to put it into some sort of context as far as where the game stands in the pantheon of greatest college football games ever played. In my opinion, the greatest college football game I have ever seen was the 2006 Rose Bowl between Texas and USC. Given the circumstances (the national championship was on the line), and the star power on the field, I always thought that that game would be unmatched. Until last night, I was right.

I don't want to be a prisoner of the moment, but what we saw last night I think absolutely has to be in the conversation of the greatest college football games ever played. When I talked about star power in the Texas vs USC game, last night may not have equaled it, but it was at least pretty close. We will still have to wait to see what all of these guys end up doing in the NFL, but Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, Jonathan Allen, Reuben Foster (who I would love to see in a New York Giants jersey), and a few others are all stars on the college level with the potential to be stars on the next level as well. And while Jalen Hurts is still only a freshman and may not be a star in the NFL, his touchdown with just over two minutes remaining gave us what we all were hoping for, and that was Deshaun Watson and the Clemson offense against the Alabama defense with the national championship on the line, and the ending delivered as Watson found Hunter Renfrow in the end zone with one second remaining to win it all.

Just the fact that the game was decided with one second left on the clock was good enough, but being able to see Watson make his case as the best collegiate player in the country after coming so close last year was what made it even better. The final drive featured not only Watson at his best, but also ridiculous catches by Mike Williams and Jordan Leggett, as well as the winning score by Renfrow. One of the signature plays of John Elway's career is when he dove for the end zone in the Super Bowl and was twisted around by a mid air hit. Last night, Watson did almost the exact same thing. We saw clutch fourth down conversions and some huge hits as well. At the end though, it was coach Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers lifting the national championship trophy, and we all witnessed a game for the ages.

After his performance in the national championship game last season and at the start of this year, it seemed like Deshaun Watson was clearly the top quarterback prospect in the land. I was never really sure why, but for some reason it seemed like he was an afterthought going into last night. Guys like Mitch Trubisky and DeShone Kizer were at the top of draft boards, and Watson was nowhere to be found. Trubisky and Kizer are only slightly bigger than Watson, and while Watson may not have the strongest arm, I don't think that he is any less NFL-ready than either of those guys. The difference between the three is that Watson has proven more than once that he can produce on the biggest of stages. Trubisky and Kizer have not even come close to even getting a chance to play on a stage that big. Is that due in part to those guys being surrounded by less talent? Yes, I think it is. But I do not think that either of them have separated themselves from the pack enough to discount what Watson has done on the biggest of stages.

This quarterback class is considered to be somewhat weak as far as NFL draft standards. Does Watson have all of the tools to immediately step in and make an impact as a rookie? Maybe not. But do Kizer or Trubisky have those tools? Until they prove otherwise, you cannot convince me that they do. The Cleveland Browns will have the first pick in the draft this year, and in my opinion, since they have so many needs all over the field, they should take the best player available, and it seems right now like that player is Myles Garrett. However, the Browns do also have the 18th overall pick, and if somehow Watson were still available then, I would jump at the opportunity to take him. Maybe he will be available, and maybe he won't. But after watching him last night and knowing his history, I think that he is definitely worth a shot in the middle of the first round if you are a team with no quarterback to lead your franchise into the future.

That is the future though. What we need to do right now is recognize the present and we need to recognize that what we saw last night is a game that will be remembered for years to come. Going into the game, I must say that I thought Alabama would win, but I was not overlooking a very good Clemson team. They had the talent on both sides of the ball to win a national title, and they did just that. I am happy for their players, alumni, and coaches. I am also happy to say that I saw one of the greatest college football games to ever be played.

Daily NBA Update: Russell Westbrook went off again last night and Anthony Davis went for 40 and 18 at Madison Square Garden as well. How 'bout them Knicks! Yea!

Daily Rangers Update: The All Star break is approaching, and the Rangers will get multiple games with some of the weaker teams in the league before that happens, so it would be nice if they could get back on track and go into the second half of the season ready to lock up one of the top spots in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Next up is a home game against Toronto this Friday night.

Monday, January 9, 2017

The offseason plan

The season officially came to an end for the Giants yesterday with a loss against the Packers. While it was a tough game that I felt like the team did have a chance to win, I have found myself focusing on next year today more than even reflecting on the past season since I think it still needs some time to sink in. In the coming weeks, I will give a full recap of the Giants' season and the NFL season. It might seem to be out of order, but right now, I am already looking ahead to the 2017 season for the Giants, so I will provide my thoughts here on what I would like to see from now until the beginning of training camp. I will start on the offensive side of the ball.

Quarterback - Obviously, Eli Manning will be back here for the foreseeable future, but he is 36 years old, and I think it might be time to start at least considering what life will be like in the post-Eli era. Josh Johnson and Ryan Nassib are his backups now, and neither of them have shown me any signs of being capable starting quarterbacks in the NFL. The quarterback crop in this upcoming draft is considered somewhat shallow, but the class coming out next year is supposed to be much deeper. While I am in no way saying that Eli's job is in jeopardy, I think in 2018, the Giants should at least consider the search for his replacement.

Running back - Paul Perkins came on at the end of the season, and I think that him and Rashad Jennings could potentially be at least a serviceable one-two punch. Orleans Darkwa and Shane Vereen missed most of the season due to injury, but if even three of those four guys can stay healthy next year, I would still feel comfortable. Bobby Rainey's contract is up, and I have only one thing to say to him: Good riddance.

Wide receiver/Tight end - As much as the fans love Victor Cruz, and as much as he has done for the team, I think his days as a Giant may be over. He really was not involved in the offense very much overall this season, and with Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard as the new focus on the outside, I think Cruz is viewed as expendable. However, Tavarres King did show some flashes both in the preseason and late in the regular season, so he might be looking at an expanded role going into next season. Until I see anyone who can replace him, I think Dwayne Harris should remain as a return man, and Roger Lewis definitely will get a shot to stick with the team if he proves worthy from now until the 2018 season begins.

As far as tight end goes, I would have no problem with Larry Donnell being shown the door, as his negatives have definitely outweighed his positives during his tenure with the Giants. For an undrafted player from a small school, Will Tye has far surpassed expectations, and he should be back. Jerell Adams had a small impact this season as a rookie sixth-rounder, but he should get a shot at a bigger role in 2018. It would be nice if the team added some depth at this position over the offseason, either through the draft or through free agency.

Offensive line - As has seemingly been the case for many years now, the offensive line is the weakness on that side of the ball. Everyone loves to hate on Ereck Flowers, and for the most part it is deserved. He has not lived up to expectations. However, being a first round draft pick on a rookie contract means that he is not going anywhere as of now. Maybe the team tries to move him to the right side of the line, but he is going to be on the roster next year whether we like it or not.

Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg will be safe, but the right side of the line needs to get better. Marshall Newhouse will hopefully be gone, and I have never liked John Jerry.

Brett Jones and Adam Gettis were reserves this year, and they are both young so I think they should at least get a shot at filling the holes in the line. I think the team needs to look to the draft for help here as well. Will Beatty (remember him?) is also still in the mix.

Defensive line - This is where the offseason will get a bit tricky, as our two biggest expiring contracts belong to Jason Pierre-Paul and Jonathan Hankins. I was wrong on JPP. I thought his fireworks "incident" would be the end of his career, but he proved me wrong when he put together a very good season before he got injured late in the year. A healthy JPP teamed with Olivier Vernon coming off both ends was a great combination this season, and I would love to see them back in tandem next year.

As far as the inside of the line goes, Damon Harrison proved to be worth every penny we spent on him by having a Pro Bowl season, but the importance of Jonathan Hankins alongside him cannot be forgotten. Jay Bromley did flash a few times, but he is not as good as Hankins right now. Romeo Okwara actually surprised me by how well he played after Pierre-Paul got hurt, so he could possibly fit into the future somehow, but I think the team needs to address the inside of the defensive line in the draft.

Linebacker - It has been years since the Giants have had a good linebacking corps, and while the unit did overachieve a bit this year, it still needs help. I was surprised at what Jonathan Casillas gave the team as the starting middle linebacker after wallowing in mediocrity for the majority of his career before this season. He is not exactly Antonio Pierce or Ray Lewis, but he did hold his own for the most part.

Keenan Robinson, Kelvin Sheppard, and Mark Herzlich all have expiring contracts, and they all performed somewhat capably in limited roles, but I doubt they will all be back next season. The Giants have missed time and time again on linebackers in the draft over recent years (Jonathan Goff, Greg Jones, Clint Sintim, etc.), The team drafted B.J. Goodson in the fourth round last year, but he did almost nothing. He should still get a chance, but I think they still need to try to draft a linebacker again this year.

Secondary - It has been a very long time since we could say this, but the secondary was the best part of the Giants defense this past season. Janoris Jankins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Eli Apple were one of the best groups in the NFL, and I would look for that to continue next year. Landon Collins was an All-Pro at safety, and he seems like he could possibly an anchor on defense for years to come. The weakest part of the secondary was the rotating players alongside of him. Mykkele and Darian Thompson showed some brief promise, but both were injured early on. Andrew Adams was acceptable for stretches, but I like him better as a reserve than a starter. Leon Hall played next to Collins as well at some points, and he did a nice job, but he may look for greener pastures this offseason.

If either Darian or Mykkele can be healthy next year, the secondary could be elite. I do not want to understate the importance of Collins either. In only his second year in the NFL, he has shown the potential to be one of the best safeties in the entire league.

Special teams - Brad Wing did a very good job punting this season, and he should be back next year as both the punter and holder. Zak DeOssie has been a mainstay as the long snapper for almost a decade now (he and Eli Manning are the only Giants players with two rings with the team), and he will return. Josh Brown had a brief stay at kicker very early on, but his domestic violence issue caused a huge uproar and forced the team to get rid of him. Robbie Gould filled in well. If he does not return, I can't say that kicker is at the top of my priority list when it comes to top voids to fill. However, those damn kickers still do matter in some of the biggest spots of the season, so I would be fine if Gould returned.

As far as the return man goes, I am totally fine with Dwayne Harris coming back to handle a ton of work on special teams, including returning both punts and kicks. He was better last season than he was this season, but his versatility alone is worthy of a roster spot. The team will likely add another returner through either the draft or free agency, but if all goes well (and as long as that man is not Bobby Rainey), that will not matter much in 2018.

Coaching staff - While Ben McAdoo does not exactly blow you away with charisma as a head coach, I feel like he did a pretty good job in his first season. I know that he was hired because of his relationship with Eli and his familiarity with the offense, but sometimes it would get a bit frustrating to see the head coach burying his head in the play calling sheet after each play on offense. Mike Sullivan was the offensive coordinator by name, but I am not sure how much impact he actually had on the play calling during the game. I do know that it was anywhere from little to none. So maybe if McAdoo at least scaled back some of his strictly offensive duties during games it would be nice.

On the defensive side, I think Steve Spagnuolo has proven that he is a great defensive coordinator and not a very good head coach (just ask the Rams). Maybe Spagnuolo is not one of the "hot names" in the offseason head coaching search, but it's possible his name could come up. Hopefully, he stays on in his current role though, because as our defensive coordinator, I think he is a perfect fit.

Daily NFL Update: I will give a synopsis of the NFL playoffs to this point some time in the near future, but the Divisional round is coming up this weekend, and that means it is the best NFL weekend of the year.

Daily NBA Update: Cleveland, Golden State, and San Antonio are all really good. Nothing has changed since about seven months ago.

Daily Rangers Update: After a brief stretch in which it seemed like the Rangers were giving up goals in multiples of six, the team has been better over the past week and a half, and they sit in second place in the Eastern Conference. Michael Grabner has been spectacular. More importantly though, Henrik Lundqvist has been anything but. 40 games left to play though, so there is still plenty of time to change that.