The anticipation of the NFL season is only growing, and since I have the day off and still some time before the U.S. Women play Japan for the gold medal, I figured I might as well spend the time by continuing my team by team look at the upcoming season. Following my very random method of choosing the order to preview the teams, today I will look at the two teams that finished last in the AFC South and the NFC South, and we start in Indianapolis.
Indianapolis Colts
There is obviously only one place to start with this team, and that is at the quarterback position. Last season we truly got to see just how big of a difference Peyton Manning makes, and how lost this team was without him. After being a perennial playoff team, last season the Colts fielded a team that was pretty similar to those contending teams, but this time it was without their leader, and as a result, the Colts fell off of the map. I obviously knew how good a player Manning was, but I never imagined how much the team would lose without him. After nine consecutive seasons of double digit wins, two Super Bowl trips, and one Super Bowl title, the Colts crashed and burned and finished with a record of 2-14.
With Manning coming off of multiple neck surgeries and his age creeping higher and higher, the Colts decided that it was time to move on and re-start. They got rid of the general manager, the head coach, and the star quarterback that had led them to a decade of prominence, and brought in an entirely new staff. The most important addition of the offseason was their number one overall draft pick, Andrew Luck. If nothing else, the Colts at least are very bad at the perfect times. The last time they had the number one overall pick, they drafted Peyton Manning, and he could walk into the Hall of Fame right now if he were to retire. In 2012, they drafted a man that has been referred to by most knowledgeable football minds as another "can't miss" prospect. Because of his availability, the Colts felt it was the right time to begin a massive re-building project. A well known coordinator with a good track record but no head coaching experience, Chuck Pagano, was brought in to lead this new Colts team to what they hope can be another perennially contending team led by their new star quarterback, Andrew Luck.
Non-divisional games: Chicago, Minnesota, Green Bay, NY Jets, Cleveland, Miami, New England, Buffalo, Detroit, Kansas City
As would be expected from the team that had the number one overall draft pick, the statistics do not paint a pretty picture. The Colts finished no better than 25th in the NFL in every major offensive and defensive category except passing defense, in which they were a respectable 15th. Their average margin of defeat was nearly two full touchdowns, and they astoundingly mustered only 19 first quarter points all season. Giving up a lot of yards, not gaining a lot of yards, and averaging just above one point in the first quarter all season obviously makes you a bad football team.
Offensively, the quarterback position was a mess all season, as guys like Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter, and Dan Orlovsky tried and failed to mount any kind of offense. In an effort to completely rebuild this team from the ground up, the Colts said goodbye to familiar faces like Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, Pierre Garcon, and Joseph Addai over the offseason. They used eight of their ten draft picks on offensive players with the hope that they could use Andrew Luck as the centerpiece of a new era in Indianapolis. In the second round, the Colts took Luck's college teammate, tight end Coby Fleener, and they also added another tight end in Dwayne Allen in the third round. Two of the biggest names that return on the offensive side of the ball are wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie, and between those two wideouts, the two rookie tight ends, and Andrew Luck, the Colts passing attack has the potential to be vastly improved.
The running game might not be the same though. Addai's departure means that Donald Brown will start the season as the number one running back, and he has not proven that he can handle the load as a number two back, let alone a number one back. The team also drafted running back Vick Ballard in the fifth round, and other veterans Mewelde Moore and Delone Carter are on the roster as well. With an unproven and/or mediocre group of players on the offensive line, and not much in terms of talent at the running back position, Andrew Luck may have no other choice but to throw the ball a lot because he may not get much support in the running game. With only one truly established NFL star on the offensive side of the ball (Reggie Wayne), this team will still struggle to score points. However, with the presence of a possible superstar at quarterback and some young receiving talent, the Colts at least have some hope for the future. As it looks right now though, this team will have a tough time staying with most teams because they just will not be able to score enough.
On the defensive side of the ball, things may look a little better, but this is still not anything near a juggernaut defense. Pagano brought Cory Redding and Tom Zbikowski with him from the Baltimore Ravens with the hope that the two of them could help the rest of the defense become accustomed to Pagano's style. The team also has two talented pass rushers in Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney, and with the addition of Redding, the Colts may have the ability to put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks. With other veterans like Jerraud Powers, Antoine Bethea, Pat Angerer, and Zbikowski, it is definitely realistic to think that this defense can improve upon a poor showing last year. An intriguing wild card on this defense is defensive end Jerry Hughes. He was drafted by the Colts for his pass rushing abilities, but has not been able to turn that potential into much success on the field thus far. He is still very young though, and if he can start playing up to his potential, he could add a lot of pass rushing talent to go along with Freeney, Mathis, and Redding.
As far as special teams goes, the team still has Adam Vinatieri, one of the most clutch kickers in the history of the league, a pretty good punter in Pat McAfee, and a respectable return man in Joe Lefeged. However, unless Lefeged comes up with a Devin Hester-like season, McAfee can drop every punt inside the 20 yard line, and Vinatieri can consistently make 65 yard field goals, their special teams will not make too much of an impact.
Looking at the schedule, it really makes no difference who the Colts play, it will be a struggle to win any game. The fact that they get the AFC East and NFC North doesn't help, as that means they have to play the Patriots, Packers, Lions, and Bears, all teams that should be very good this year.
Best-case scenario: Luck becomes an instant star and leader, someone steps up in the backfield to provide him with some support, the defense stays healthy and plays up to its potential, and the Colts show some positive signs for the future.
Worst-case scenario: The lack of a running game and a solid offensive line forces Luck to run for his life all season, the veterans on defense start to decline, the team has no hope or motivation by the middle of the season, and the new coaching staff does not fit into what the organization is trying to do.
Realistic prediction: Overall, this team is just not very good. They got their man in Luck with the first overall pick in the draft, and if he can even come close to the expectations that have been placed upon his shoulders, he could be very good for the next decade. I think the defense has the potential to be at least in the middle of the pack, but the lack of any sort of running game really concerns me. Peyton Manning's first year was a disaster statistically, and Luck may be in store for a similar fate this year. However, he seems to have all the intangibles and talent to be able to deal with what might be a rough first year, and I believe that he will be a solid quarterback, at least, for many years to come. As for the record at the end of the season? I'll go with 3-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Following a surprising 10 win season in 2010, the Bucs had somewhat high expectations going into last year, and they came nowhere close to meeting those expectations. The defense was atrocious, the offense wasn't much better, and the Bucs went a disappointing 4-12. That led to the firing of head coach Raheem Morris, and the hiring of former Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano. Many have tried and failed (Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier) to make the jump from college head coach to NFL head coach, but some have succeeded in doing so (Jimmy Johnson), although the number of misses has been much higer than the number of hits. Schiano did a very good job at Rutgers, taking the program from the depths of despair and returning it to an average to above-average team, and the Bucs hope that Schiano can do the same in Tampa Bay.
The Bucs were also able to make a big splash this offseason, as they signed a top-flight wide receiver in Vincent Jackson, and were also able to pry away Carl Nicks, arguably the best offensive guard in the league, from divisional foe New Orleans. The chances for this team to succeed may be all tied to one man though, and I will speak about him momentarily.
Non-divisional games: NY Giants, Dallas, Washington, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego, Denver, Philadelphia, St. Louis
Beginning with the offense, that man I was speaking about who could be the one that makes or breaks the Bucs this year is quarterback Josh Freeman. Coming out of Kansas State, Freeman was considered by many as a prototypical NFL quarterback. He had the size and talent to possibly be even better in the NFL than he was on a mediocre Kansas State team, and in 2010, it seemed as though he would fulfill those expectations. The Bucs went 10-6 and missed out on the playoffs due to a tiebreaker, but it seemed as though Freeman was the man that could lead them into the postseason in the near future. Those perceptions all changed during 2011 though, as the Bucs ranked 27th in the league in scoring, and turned the ball over an NFL-high 40 times. Now this was not all on Freeman, as the passing offense of the Bucs was ranked in the middle of the pack. The running game was what really hurt the Bucs, as they were 30th in the league in rushing yards per game last season. However, Freeman was not nearly as good as he was in 2010, and the focus will be on him to lead this offense this year, especially now that he has some legitimate offensive weapons around him.
The addition of Jackson instantly makes the wide receiving corps much better, and the addition of Nicks instantly makes the offensive line much better. The Bucs also drafted running back Doug Martin (who I really hoped the Giants would get) in the first round, and he has the potential to be a very good all-around back, especially when paired with LaGarrette Blount, who can be a formidable second option. The offensive line was already somewhat respectable without Nicks, and now it has the potential to be pretty good. The addition of Jackson will also open up space for guys like Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow, and that, paired with Martin's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, could mean that Josh Freeman will have a lot more options when dropping back to pass this season.
As far as the defense goes, the Bucs absolutely need to see improvement from this group. They were dead last in the league in points allowed, total yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed, and obviously, this will not get it done. The Bucs addressed their defense early in the draft, selecting safety Mark Barron from Alabama, who has the potential to be very good. The problem is, the Bucs defense is full of high draft picks that have had the potential to be good but, for a number of reasons, have not lived up to expectations. Guys like Gerald McCoy, Amobi Okoye, and Aqib Talib have the talent to be good, but need to start turning that talent into success on the field, or else the Bucs will have trouble stopping anyone again this year. Tampa Bay's defense is full of players that have not lived up to their potential, and the leader of the defense, Ronde Barber, is about 647 years old and cannot be counted on to be the star of the unit anymore. If Schiano and his new staff are able to bring out the potential in even some of the players on defense, they can be pretty good. If not, it may be one of those cases of talent not actually turning into reality.
As far as special teams goes, Michael Koenen is an above-average punter, and the rest of the unit is just average. Barring any breakout seasons here, I would not expect the Bucs to be able to use their special teams as a way to change games.
Looking at the schedule, the Bucs do not get any favors, as aside from having to face Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan twice this season, they also have to face Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning. If that defense cannot improve, this could be a long season filled with a lot of points allowed.
Best-case scenario: Freeman is able to bounce back thanks to the improved supporting cast, Schiano is able to successfully make the transition from the college level to the NFL, the newly injected talent on defense helps the rest of the unit finally start to approach its full potential, and the Bucs have a shot at the playoffs in what will be a very tough NFC South.
Worst-case scenario: Freeman proves that he is more like the 2011 version than the 2010 version, Schiano is unable to adapt to the NFL game, the defense continues to be a unit full of potential that does not pan out on the field, and the Bucs have no chance in the division.
Realistic prediction: I wanted to say that the Bucs could be around .500, but the more I wrote, the less likely that seemed. The Saints and Falcons are going to be good, and the Panthers are getting better. Despite some nice new additions in the draft and in free agency, I still cannot see the Bucs doing anything but challenging to stay out of last place in the NFC South. I'm going to say 6-10.
So that ends day two of my look at all 32 NFL teams for the 2012 season. I hope it wasn't too long, but as I said with the MLB All-Star Game update a few weeks ago, doing this not only helps you guys get a sense of what to expect, but it helps me take a closer look at these things as well. Continuing the theme of last place teams moving west to east, tomorrow I will preview the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings.
Daily Giants Update: We are now just over 24 hours from the first preseason game, and its approach makes me feel even better and better to be able to see the defending champs play. Soon enough, we will start to get an idea about how the team might look in 2012.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: A 7-6 loss in Pittsburgh last night did not sit well, as Chris Young was ejected for arguing a called strike three, and Ian Kennedy was unimpressive. The fact that the Dodgers and Giants both won certainly didn't help matters. First pitch in Pittsburgh is in just over two hours, and as I said yesterday, we cannot just keep within arm's length of the division lead, we need to start gaining ground. Joe Saunders goes against the newly acquired Wandy Rodriguez today. Let's go DBacks!
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