In the final look at teams that finished last in their divisions in 2011, I will look closer at two teams that will be very interesting to watch this year, for a number of reasons. The Buffalo Bills came in last place (due to a tiebreaker) in the AFC East, and the Washington Redskins came in last in the NFC East. I'll start today off in Orchard Park, New York.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills came flying out of the gate last season, starting 5-2. They averaged just under 38 points per game in their first three wins, and were the feel-good story of the beginning of the year. However, due to a few factors, the Bills went on to lose eight of their final nine games and finished the year with a disappointing record of 6-10. After an offseason that included a big new contract for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, a huge signing in defensive end Mario Williams, and ample time for their injured players to recover, I have high hopes for the Bills in 2012.
Non-divisional games: Kansas City, Cleveland, San Francisco, Arizona, Tennessee, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Seattle
A look at the number from last year paints a picture of a mediocre offense, and a very bad defense. The Bills ranked 14th in scoring and total yards, 13th in rushing, and 15th in passing, but ranked 30th in points per game allowed, 26th in total yards per game allowed, and 28th in rushing yards allowed per game. The passing defense was at least a somewhat respectable 19th in the league, but with a total look at the numbers, we see a defense that simply was not very good last season.
The offensive side of the ball is where the Bills really surprised a lot of people, as they were able to get very good seasons from many previously little known players, although each of these players were negatively affected by some kind of malady that stunted their growth. Ryan Fitzpatrick showed some extended flashes of the potential to be a very good quarterback, but he also led the NFL in interceptions. Despite that, the team gave him a huge contract this offseason that showed they are now fully committed to him as their starting quarterback of both the present and the future. Fred Jackson was excellent for the first half of the year until an injury ended his season. Steve Johnson also showed that he can be a very good wide receiver, but some tremendous lapses in judgment and concentration on his part hurt the team.
With Fitzpatrick now knowing that the team is committed to him for the long term, Jackson back to full health, and Johnson on the outside, the Bills have three talented players leading their offense. Fitzpatrick's continued improvement will be key on this side of the ball though. If he can reduce his interception total, the entire Bills offense will benefit. At the running back position, the Bills have one of the most potent tandems in the AFC, as Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller have the potential to turn into an extremely formidable duo. Both has breakaway ability with the ball in their hands, and are excellent in terms of catching the ball out of the backfield.
As far as the receivers go, the Bills will need some improvement here. Johnson has the ability to be a number one receiver, but he needs to be more consistent in terms of both his play and his attitude. Behind Johnson, the Bills would like to see either David Nelson or Donald Jones step up and become more of a threat as a number two receiver. Scott Chandler was a pleasant surprise at tight end, and his presence will help Fitzpatrick. As I said before, the ability of both Jackson and Spiller to catch the ball really helps add to the passing game.
Buffalo already had a pretty good offensive line, and they selected Cordy Glenn out of Georgia with their second round pick. His addition will do nothing but help the Bills in terms of protecting Fitzpatrick and letting Jackson and Spiller flourish.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills made three big offseason additions that will really help the team improve upon those ugly numbers. The signing of Mario Williams instantly makes the pass rush a lot better, and the team also signed Mark Anderson to play on the opposite side of the line. Anderson has been up and down during his career, but he played well when he was teamed with Julius Peppers in Chicago and also had a bounce back year in 2011 with New England. Switching to a 4-3 defense means that both of these men will get to play their original defensive end positions and will only help improve what could be a very good pass rush. 2011 draft pick Marcell Dareus led the Bills in sacks last season, and with him in the middle of Williams and Anderson, quarterbacks may find themselves under a lot of pressure when they face the Bills. The linebacking group is probably the weakest part of the defense, but it is still at least average, and the presence of three very good pass rushers in front of them will likely open things up for the linebackers to roam more freely and make more plays than they were able to last season.
The third big acquisition that the Bills made on the defensive side of the ball was the drafting of cornerback Stephon Gilmore from South Carolina. Gilmore has first round ability, and if he is able to neutralize opposing wide receivers while Williams, Anderson, and Dareus rush the passer, the Bills have the potential to be better at defending the pass. Jairus Byrd is a ball-hawking safety that could also benefit a lot from the presence of an improved pass rush. With opposing quarterbacks likely under more pressure this season, Byrd will have a chance to play aggressively and use his skill set to its full potential.
As far as special teams goes, the Bills are also good here. Brian Moorman and Rian Lindell are above-average and are accustomed to kicking in the bad conditions in Buffalo. C.J. Spiller and Brad Smith are also solid return men with game-breaking abilities.
A look at the schedule provides more hope for Buffalo, as they will get the NFC West and AFC South. Pair that with games against Cleveland and Kansas City, and the Bills have a schedule that could allow them to win a lot of games. Three winnable games against the Jets, Chiefs, and Browns open the slate, and though the schedule gets tougher in the middle, the final seven games are all with teams that are not exactly juggernauts. If the Bills can take care of business and avoid multiple letdowns against lesser teams, we could be looking at a team that will make a big jump in terms of win total from last season to this season.
Best-case scenario: Everyone stays healthy, Fitzpatrick cuts down on his interceptions, the additions on defense cause a lot more pressure on opponents, and the Bills make the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Worst-case scenario: Fitzpatrick does not cut down on his turnovers and disappoints after getting paid, injuries and inconsistency in the receiving game hurt the offense, the Bills get below-average years from players who have the potential to be very good on defense, and the team finishes in last place in the division.
Realistic prediction: The best and worse case scenarios are quite different, but that is mostly due to the fact that aside from New England, the teams in the AFC East all have wide-ranging potentials. However, there is a lot to like about the Bills, and I think that 10-6 with a wild-card berth in the playoffs is definitely a goal that the team can reach.
Washington Redskins
The Redskins are a team that has been victimized by playing in a division that has been very good for the past few years. While they are not a standout team, as their 5-11 record from 2011 shows, they do have a few very young and exciting players that will be interesting to watch during the 2012 season. Washington made a big splash in the draft, trading up to draft Heisman winner Robert Griffin III (RG3) with the second overall pick. RG3 flashed onto the scene last year with a brilliant season for the Baylor Bears, becoming one of the most hyped prospects in the 2012 draft class. He possesses a number of great talents and seems to have the intangibles to succeed at the NFL level, but the jump from college to the pros is always one that is tough to predict, and Griffin will need to make good on the Redskins' big draft move to meet the expectations that will be placed upon his shoulders.
Non-divisional opponents: New Orleans, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Baltimore, Cleveland
The numbers from last year are below-average to average pretty much across the board. The biggest problem for the Redskins was running the ball, as their rushing offense was ranked 25th in the league. Head coach Mike Shanahan never truly settled on a number one running back, and although it seems like Roy Helu has become the best option on the team, I will need to see a full year of success for him before I can say that the Redskins running game is anything better than average.
On offense, a lot will hinge on the two players that I already mentioned in Griffin and Helu, but it will obviously come down to Griffin's transition to the NFL. He has a strong arm, is an accurate thrower, and can also run well with the ball, but the system that he played in at Baylor was not anything close to what Mike Shanahan runs, and Griffin might have a tough time adjusting to the NFL, at least for the upcoming season. As far as targets for Griffin to throw to, this is an underwhelming group. The team signed Pierre Garcon in the offseason, but he is not exactly the definition of a number one receiver. Leonard Hankerson is not much more than average, and Santana Moss is past his prime at this point. The Redskins do have a somewhat formidable duo at tight end in Fred Davis and Chris Cooley, and their presence could really help Griffin's development.
The offensive line is nothing more than average, and is also somewhat old in terms of NFL standards. Washington drafted three offensive linemen, so if one of them can turn out to be pretty good, it will really help this group. In a division full of teams that can get after the quarterback though, Griffin may find himself under a lot of pressure during his rookie year.
The defense contains a very good young player in Ryan Kerrigan and a superstar young player in Brian Orakpo, but not a ton of support around them. The defense as a whole is full of a lot of underachieving players who have proven themselves to be just mediocre over the course of their careers. The depth at most positions is pretty good, but also full of underachievers. With Orakpo and Kerrigan attacking opposing quarterbacks and the ageless London Fletcher leading the unit, but not much else, I don't see the defense being anything better than average. Again, like the shaky offensive line that does not help Washington in the NFC East, a defense that is only average sure doesn't help either as the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles can all put up a lot of points on any given day.
The special teams is only average at best. Brandon Banks has the potential to break off some big returns, but he is not exactly a game changer. Sav Rocca is also just an average punter. A real problem is the field goal kicking game, as Graham Gano is not very good, as he missed more field goals than any other kicker in the entire NFL last year.
The schedule here is pretty tough, as the Redskins have to play the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles twice each, as well as the Falcons, Saints, Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals. That is seven games with playoff teams from last year, and that does not bode well for Washington.
Best-case scenario: RG3 instantly is able to adjust to the NFL game, rewards the Redskins for moving up in the draft to select him, and finally solves the problem of the lack of a franchise quarterback in Washington that has lingered for decades. Roy Helu has a breakout year and becomes a legitimate number one back, the receiving corps is able to improve, most of the defense plays up to its potential, and the Redskins don't finish last in the division.
Worst-case scenario: Griffin struggles and the lack of talent around him only does more to stunt his growth as he runs for his life trying to avoid being pummeled by guys like Justin Tuck, DeMarcus Ware, and James Harrison all season, the defense shows both its age and its inconsistency, and the Redskins have no chance in a very good NFC East.
Realistic prediction: Due to a rookie quarterback, and a pretty tough schedule, I cannot see the Redkins finishing anywhere but last in the division. There are a few winnable games, but this team just is not going to be able to be consistently good enough to avoid a bad record. They finished 5-11 last season, and despite the addition of the Heisman Trophy winner, I am going to predict that 5-11 will be where they finish again in 2012.
That ends the look at all of the bottom feeders in the league last season, and next up will be the third place finishers from 2011 in the AFC West and NFC West, the Oakland Raiders and the Seattle Seahawks.
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