The Golden State Warriors announced today that they had fired head coach Mark Jackson after three seasons leading the team. There had been some talk about his job status recently, but I really paid it no mind because I thought it would be ridiculous to even think that Jackson's job would be in jeopardy. Despite coming off a seven-game series loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, the Warriors were certainly one of the up and coming teams in the NBA. They are led by Stephen Curry, who is a budding superstar, and Curry was supplemented by a very nice cast of players. While they were not truly title contenders this season, the improvement the team had shown since Jackson took over as coach was undeniable, and not only were they exciting to watch, but they were becoming a force to be reckoned with in the Western Conference. Why then, would they fire Jackson? Honestly, I cannot find a reasonable explanation to that question.
Prior to Jackson taking over in 2011, the Warriors had a losing record in 15 of the previous 17 seasons. They had made the playoffs once in that time span, and had pretty much been the model of putridity. That means that in 17 seasons prior to his being hired, Golden State had two winning seasons. In three years under Jackson, the Warriors had two winning seasons and they made the playoffs in both of those years.
In 2013-14, the Warriors went 51-31. The last time the Warriors won that many games was 1992. In 1992, the Warriors were led by Chris Mullin, and they lost to the Seattle SuperSonics in the first round of the playoffs. In 2014, the SuperSonics do not even exist. They are known as the Oklahoma City Thunder and left Seattle six years ago.
So why then, would the team fire Jackson? Rumor has it that he had problems with the front office, and I have to believe that that is sadly, a legitimate possibility. Through the years, in all sports, we have learned that the executives are in charge. That is not just the case in sports, but it is the case in all professions as well. Good employees might bring about success or profits within a company, but at the end of the day, the executives are in charge, and challenging them is a recipe for disaster. We have not heard of any particular incidents between Jackson and the Warriors organization, but I have to think that must have had something to do with this move.
Following the expulsion of Jackson, owner Joe Lacob, president Rick Welts, and general manager Bob Myers have all released statements praising Jackson for his work, but citing the organization's desire to move in a "different direction." Jackson had the Warriors moving in a steeply uphill direction, so in my opinion, the statements of those men are far from credible. Supposedly, the Warriors are possibly interested in Lionel Hollins and Steve Kerr as replacements for Jackson, but I find it to be laughable that the organization would think either of those men could step in and pick up right where Jackson left off. Jackson not only had the team on a path to success, but he had the support of his players as well.
What this all boils down to is the fact that under Jackson, the Warriors have experienced far more success and improvement than they have in decades. They may not have won their first round series against the Clippers, but it went to seven games and it was a damn exciting seven games. The Clippers are legitimate contenders for the Western Conference crown, and the Warriors took them to the brink of elimination. However, the organization wanted to "move in a different direction."
It is things like this that make me realize that there are just some organizations in sports that do not put winning before anything else, and the Golden State Warriors have to fit into that category. Whether it is ownership, management, or some combination of both, there is a reason that the Warriors will never be on the level of the San Antonio Spurs or the Los Angeles Lakers. When those teams are down, they put everything else aside to try to rise up and win championships. When organizations like the Golden State Warriors are down, they seem to be content, and winning seems to be far from the top priority. The Red Sox want to win. The Astros do not. The Steelers want to win. The Lions do not. The Red Wings want to win. The Panthers do not. It is just a fact. No matter what the executives of each and every organization admits, we just have to accept the fact that some are in it for the long haul, and some are in it for nothing more than a profit.
Daily Rangers Update: The Rangers were overwhelmed at home last night by the Penguins, and they now find themselves down 2-1 in the series. A win in Game 4 is essential, because if they head back to Pittsburgh down 3-1, we have a big problem. Someone needs to step up in Game 4.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Arizona lost last night in Milwaukee thanks to yet another uninspiring pitching performance. J.J. Putz was placed on the DL and Mike Bolsinger was demoted to AAA today, while Chase Anderson and Evan Marshall were promoted to the big league squad. At 11-24, we are pretty much looking for any possible kind of jump start, but hope seems to be growing dimmer and dimmer by the day.
Daily Nets Update: Game 1 in Miami is less than two hours away, and the Heat should be well rested and ready to go. Brooklyn could really use an unheralded player to step up tonight. Maybe someone like Marcus Thornton or Mirza Teletovic could step in and provide points off the bench. Either way the Nets will be facing an uphill challenge to take one of the first two games of the series in Miami.
Daily Giants Update: Nothing new to report since yesterday, except that the draft is one day closer. As I have already said, the Giants need to select some players who can impact the team for years to come, so the pressure will be on Jerry Reese & Co. to get that done.
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Monday, May 5, 2014
The least important position in the draft?
With the NFL Draft only a few days away now, there has been all kinds of speculation about which players will go where, and what teams will try to do. It is no different than any other week leading up to the draft. Supposition is rampant, and each team, fan, and player has dreams of the best-case scenario, as well as nightmares of the worst-case scenario.
This year, the Houston Texans will pick first overall, and it seems that the most likely scenario is that they draft defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. While their biggest weakness is not defensive end, most people seem to think that Clowney is just too good to pass up, and I believe that as well.
Another possibility that I think is less likely is that Houston trades out of the first overall spot, down a few spots, in an effort to acquire a few more picks, while still staying in the top ten overall. The team most mentioned here is the Atlanta Falcons, who hold the sixth pick. If Houston were able to swap spots with Atlanta, as well as acquire additional picks (either in 2014 or in the future), they appear open to doing so. Since Houston already has a Pro Bowl caliber defensive end in J.J. Watt, they might believe that they are better off passing up on Clowney in lieu of more picks, and help at another position. One of the positions that certainly jumps off the page as a weakness for Houston is quarterback. In the current NFL, the belief seems to be that without a "franchise quarterback," it is impossible to win, and we see that in how teams draft.
The quarterback class this year is considered by many to be mediocre. There do not seem to be any surefire superstar QB's ready to take the reins of a team right out of the gate, but we are still hearing talk about guys like Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel possibly going first overall, but at least both going in the top ten. Among the other likely top overall picks, we see defensive lineman/pass rushing linebackers (Clowney, Khalil Mack), offensive lineman to protect the QB's (Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews), and wide receivers to catch the passes from those QB's (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans). It seems more and more each year that these positions are the ones that are the most sought after when draft day rolls around. This trend really reflects how the league has changed over the past decade. Quarterbacks and left tackles need to be cornerstones, and stud pass rushers and receivers are needed to supplement them. However, that leaves out on position that has somewhat fallen off the map in terms of significance, and that position is running back.
If we look at the regular season statistics from 2013, it becomes even more clear that there has been a significant decrease in value at the running back position when it comes to the top of the draft. Of the top 10 rushers last season, only three (Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Ryan Mathews) were first round picks. Out of the top ten passers last season, only three (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Andy Dalton) were not first round picks, and in reality, Brady was the only one who was truly a late round gem. Brees was taken with the first pick in the second round by San Diego, and Dalton was taken with the third pick in the second round by Cincinnati. When we look even deeper, this trend only becomes more and more apparent.
Of the top 25 passers from last season, 16 were taken in the first round. Of the top 25 rushers from last season, eight were taken in the first round. Of that group of 25 passers, only one was undrafted. Of that group of rushers, four were undrafted, and one was taken in the final round of the draft. Likely the best example of this trend is how many of these top players were taken first overall in the draft. Seven of those 25 QB's were selected number one overall, and none of those running backs were first overall. Add in the fact that Robert Griffin III only went second overall because he was behind Andrew Luck, and it is obvious how important the quarterback position is on draft day.
The seemingly "can't miss" exception to this rule was in 2012, when Trent Richardson went #3 overall to the Cleveland Browns. The league had already become more of a passing league, but Richardson was supposedly too good to pass up at the very top. Since then, he has been benched and then traded, and this probably makes teams feel even less compelled to spend a high pick on a running back, even if they did not feel very compelled to do so in the first place. The last running back taken first overall in the draft was Ki-Jana Carter, and unless you are an avid football fan, you would probably be hard-pressed to be able to name where he went to college and what team drafted him.
In 2013, the first running back taken was Giovani Bernard, 37th overall. In 2012, as I mentioned, Richardson was the first back taken, and he has been a gigantic dud in his first two seasons in the league. In 2011, the first running back taken was Mark Ingram, 28th overall. None of those players have ever been the lone, number one back on their respective teams. Of the top four rushers in 2013, we had two second round picks, one third round pick, and one sixth round pick. Of the top four passers, we had three first round picks, and Brees, who was the first pick of the second round.
Mock drafts for 2014 show that teams are still thinking the exact same way. The first quarterback could potentially go as high as #1 overall, but it is certainly possible that three could go in the first round, and as many as five or six could be off the board by the time the first running back is selected. Does that mean that all of those QB's will have better careers than the first running back taken? Of course not. But in 2014, it seems like the focus has moved to which of those players will have longer careers, and you have to say that the chances for that definitely favor the QB's.
Eddie Lacy went in the second round last year, and was very good for Green Bay as a rookie, but I remember watching him for the first time and thinking that he is going to be very good in the short term, but I just really do not think he will last more than five years as an elite back because of the punishment he takes. The chances of finding a solid running back in the late rounds are far better than the chances of finding a solid quarterback in the late rounds. Adrian Peterson was drafted high, and he has lasted, but he seems to be the outlier at the running back position. Tom Brady was drafted late, and is a Hall of Famer, but he is the outlier at the quarterback position.
So, if your team needs a quarterback in 2014, then expect to hear his name called sooner rather than later. If your team needs a running back, you are probably going to have to wait a while before you hear his name called. In all honesty, a player at every position except fullback, punter, and kicker will probably be drafted before the first running back comes off the board. Years ago, that would be inconceivable. Guys like Earl Campbell and Jim Brown and Emmitt Smith might not like it, but running backs are just not nearly as important in the present day as they were in the past.
Daily Nets Update: Brooklyn won Game 7 in Toronto yesterday, so that means they will head to Miami to face a rested Heat team. Obviously, this would be an extremely tough series no matter the circumstances, but I just couldn't help but feel underwhelmed by not only Brooklyn's performance yesterday, but by their play during much of the Toronto series. I can't say that I expect the Nets to get past the Heat, but I'm not sure they would even be able to do so if the entire roster was at the top of its game right now either. Game 1 is tomorrow night.
Daily Rangers Update: The Rangers were shut out last night in Pittsburgh, so the series is even at one. Splitting the first two games on the road is always the goal against a higher seed, and the Rangers were able to do so in Pittsburgh. There is no time to rest though, as Game 3 will be tonight at Madison Square Garden. Let's Go Rangers!
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Despite losing yesterday, Arizona has won three of four, and in the grand scheme of things, after a horrific start, it is a small step in the right direction. The DBacks will begin a three game series in Milwaukee tonight against a Brewers team that has come flying out of the gate to start the year. Mike Bolsinger will be on the mound to face off against Matt Garza.
Daily Giants Update: The Giants have a lot of holes to fill this weekend, and there seem to be plenty of options for them in the first round, so I really would not be surprised to see them go in any number of directions. I have heard names like Eric Ebron, Taylor Lewan, Aaron Donald, and Zack Martin, but the team might also look at guys like Anthony Barr or C.J. Mosley as well. As I said, the team needs to address a lot of areas. I was not really blown away by most of the free agent signings, as the team seemed to choose quantity over quality, so the draft is going to be important in finding guys who might truly be able to step up and be stars on this team.
This year, the Houston Texans will pick first overall, and it seems that the most likely scenario is that they draft defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. While their biggest weakness is not defensive end, most people seem to think that Clowney is just too good to pass up, and I believe that as well.
Another possibility that I think is less likely is that Houston trades out of the first overall spot, down a few spots, in an effort to acquire a few more picks, while still staying in the top ten overall. The team most mentioned here is the Atlanta Falcons, who hold the sixth pick. If Houston were able to swap spots with Atlanta, as well as acquire additional picks (either in 2014 or in the future), they appear open to doing so. Since Houston already has a Pro Bowl caliber defensive end in J.J. Watt, they might believe that they are better off passing up on Clowney in lieu of more picks, and help at another position. One of the positions that certainly jumps off the page as a weakness for Houston is quarterback. In the current NFL, the belief seems to be that without a "franchise quarterback," it is impossible to win, and we see that in how teams draft.
The quarterback class this year is considered by many to be mediocre. There do not seem to be any surefire superstar QB's ready to take the reins of a team right out of the gate, but we are still hearing talk about guys like Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel possibly going first overall, but at least both going in the top ten. Among the other likely top overall picks, we see defensive lineman/pass rushing linebackers (Clowney, Khalil Mack), offensive lineman to protect the QB's (Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews), and wide receivers to catch the passes from those QB's (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans). It seems more and more each year that these positions are the ones that are the most sought after when draft day rolls around. This trend really reflects how the league has changed over the past decade. Quarterbacks and left tackles need to be cornerstones, and stud pass rushers and receivers are needed to supplement them. However, that leaves out on position that has somewhat fallen off the map in terms of significance, and that position is running back.
If we look at the regular season statistics from 2013, it becomes even more clear that there has been a significant decrease in value at the running back position when it comes to the top of the draft. Of the top 10 rushers last season, only three (Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Ryan Mathews) were first round picks. Out of the top ten passers last season, only three (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Andy Dalton) were not first round picks, and in reality, Brady was the only one who was truly a late round gem. Brees was taken with the first pick in the second round by San Diego, and Dalton was taken with the third pick in the second round by Cincinnati. When we look even deeper, this trend only becomes more and more apparent.
Of the top 25 passers from last season, 16 were taken in the first round. Of the top 25 rushers from last season, eight were taken in the first round. Of that group of 25 passers, only one was undrafted. Of that group of rushers, four were undrafted, and one was taken in the final round of the draft. Likely the best example of this trend is how many of these top players were taken first overall in the draft. Seven of those 25 QB's were selected number one overall, and none of those running backs were first overall. Add in the fact that Robert Griffin III only went second overall because he was behind Andrew Luck, and it is obvious how important the quarterback position is on draft day.
The seemingly "can't miss" exception to this rule was in 2012, when Trent Richardson went #3 overall to the Cleveland Browns. The league had already become more of a passing league, but Richardson was supposedly too good to pass up at the very top. Since then, he has been benched and then traded, and this probably makes teams feel even less compelled to spend a high pick on a running back, even if they did not feel very compelled to do so in the first place. The last running back taken first overall in the draft was Ki-Jana Carter, and unless you are an avid football fan, you would probably be hard-pressed to be able to name where he went to college and what team drafted him.
In 2013, the first running back taken was Giovani Bernard, 37th overall. In 2012, as I mentioned, Richardson was the first back taken, and he has been a gigantic dud in his first two seasons in the league. In 2011, the first running back taken was Mark Ingram, 28th overall. None of those players have ever been the lone, number one back on their respective teams. Of the top four rushers in 2013, we had two second round picks, one third round pick, and one sixth round pick. Of the top four passers, we had three first round picks, and Brees, who was the first pick of the second round.
Mock drafts for 2014 show that teams are still thinking the exact same way. The first quarterback could potentially go as high as #1 overall, but it is certainly possible that three could go in the first round, and as many as five or six could be off the board by the time the first running back is selected. Does that mean that all of those QB's will have better careers than the first running back taken? Of course not. But in 2014, it seems like the focus has moved to which of those players will have longer careers, and you have to say that the chances for that definitely favor the QB's.
Eddie Lacy went in the second round last year, and was very good for Green Bay as a rookie, but I remember watching him for the first time and thinking that he is going to be very good in the short term, but I just really do not think he will last more than five years as an elite back because of the punishment he takes. The chances of finding a solid running back in the late rounds are far better than the chances of finding a solid quarterback in the late rounds. Adrian Peterson was drafted high, and he has lasted, but he seems to be the outlier at the running back position. Tom Brady was drafted late, and is a Hall of Famer, but he is the outlier at the quarterback position.
So, if your team needs a quarterback in 2014, then expect to hear his name called sooner rather than later. If your team needs a running back, you are probably going to have to wait a while before you hear his name called. In all honesty, a player at every position except fullback, punter, and kicker will probably be drafted before the first running back comes off the board. Years ago, that would be inconceivable. Guys like Earl Campbell and Jim Brown and Emmitt Smith might not like it, but running backs are just not nearly as important in the present day as they were in the past.
Daily Nets Update: Brooklyn won Game 7 in Toronto yesterday, so that means they will head to Miami to face a rested Heat team. Obviously, this would be an extremely tough series no matter the circumstances, but I just couldn't help but feel underwhelmed by not only Brooklyn's performance yesterday, but by their play during much of the Toronto series. I can't say that I expect the Nets to get past the Heat, but I'm not sure they would even be able to do so if the entire roster was at the top of its game right now either. Game 1 is tomorrow night.
Daily Rangers Update: The Rangers were shut out last night in Pittsburgh, so the series is even at one. Splitting the first two games on the road is always the goal against a higher seed, and the Rangers were able to do so in Pittsburgh. There is no time to rest though, as Game 3 will be tonight at Madison Square Garden. Let's Go Rangers!
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Despite losing yesterday, Arizona has won three of four, and in the grand scheme of things, after a horrific start, it is a small step in the right direction. The DBacks will begin a three game series in Milwaukee tonight against a Brewers team that has come flying out of the gate to start the year. Mike Bolsinger will be on the mound to face off against Matt Garza.
Daily Giants Update: The Giants have a lot of holes to fill this weekend, and there seem to be plenty of options for them in the first round, so I really would not be surprised to see them go in any number of directions. I have heard names like Eric Ebron, Taylor Lewan, Aaron Donald, and Zack Martin, but the team might also look at guys like Anthony Barr or C.J. Mosley as well. As I said, the team needs to address a lot of areas. I was not really blown away by most of the free agent signings, as the team seemed to choose quantity over quality, so the draft is going to be important in finding guys who might truly be able to step up and be stars on this team.
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