Yesterday, I wrote that I expect the Patriots to absolutely win the AFC East. That is not exactly going out on a limb, but even with Tom Brady missing the first four games, New England is too good to not win that division. Next up is the AFC North.
AFC North
The two mainstays in this division over the past decade have been the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, as both of those teams have won multiple Super Bowls over the past decade and a half. The Cincinnati Bengals have been good in the regular season for a while now, but that has not turned into any sort of success in the postseason. The Cleveland Browns have been the perennial bottom-feeder. I expect that trend to continue in 2016.
Pittsburgh Steelers - I think this is a team that should have Super Bowl aspirations. They have one of the best offensive units in the entire league, and while their defense is clearly not on the level of the offense, it did improve a bit in 2015, and they addressed multiple needs on that side of the ball in the draft. Pittsburgh's defense will not have to be perfect week in and week out, because the offense could potentially put up 30 points per game.
There is one gorilla in the room on the offensive side of the ball though, and that is multiple suspensions. Martavis Bryant is out for the entire season due to suspension, and Le'Veon Bell is facing a possible four game suspension. However, I think Pittsburgh has enough depth to make up for those losses. Ben Roethlisberger has won multiple Super Bowls, and Antonio Brown is the best wide receiver in the NFL. DeAngelo Williams is a very capable backup that can at least hold down the fort if Bell's suspension is upheld.
The key is the defense though. The weakest part of that unit was the secondary, and Pittsburgh took defensive backs with its first two picks in the draft. If the defense can at least be average, the Steelers could potentially make a deep playoff run.
Ceiling: I think it is fair to say that you could potentially consider Pittsburgh as a Super Bowl caliber team. The offense should be one of the best in the league. We have seen teams make the Super Bowl before with great offenses and opportunistic defenses that can force a lot of turnovers, even if they give up a lot of yards. We might see a lot of 35-31 games, but Pittsburgh has the firepower to make it happen if needed.
Floor: Roethlisberger is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the NFL, but he has had his share of injuries over the years. The Steelers have been able to piece together wins in his absence in the past, but if we see a combination of him getting hurt and Bell's suspension causing a slow start, Pittsburgh could miss the playoffs in what is always a tough division.
Reality: Pittsburgh's offense is too good for them to miss the playoffs as long as they stay healthy and out of trouble off the field. There are definitely questions on the defensive side of the ball, but I still think this team is good enough to win one playoff game at the least, and I would not be surprised to see them win more than that.
Cincinnati Bengals
It is the same story in Cincinnati that it has always been since Marvin Lewis took over as head coach. Regular season success and postseason failure. The Bengals gave away a game in the playoffs last year that they should have won based pretty much on sheer stupidity and dirty play. It was a new and innovative way to fail in January, but the result was the same. The team did lose a few somewhat significant pieces during the offseason, so I hate to say it, but I think they could be on the way to a similar ending in 2016.
Andy Dalton has developed into a pretty good quarterback but until he at least wins one playoff game, he and Marvin Lewis will be known for the exact same thing. A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert are elite targets, and Cincinnati has a pretty good offensive line as well as a few good running backs.
The strength of the defense remains on the line, and Cincinnati used its first pick on a defensive back that can hopefully help the secondary.
Ceiling: The Bengals have actually reached the postseason in each of the past five seasons, but that has been as good as it has gotten. The AFC North is always tough, but I do think Cincinnati has the potential to end the regular season at the top. Then comes the playoffs though, and with each failure, the pressure on Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis grows and grows. If they can win one playoff game in 2016, I think the season could be considered a success and a step in the right direction.
Floor: Cincinnati's schedule is very tough right out of the gate, and if they get off to a bad start it could put them in a big hole. I think finishing third in the division is as bad as it could get.
Reality: This is close to the same team as last year, so I think that it is fair to expect similar results. Maybe they win the division, but it is going to be tough. I hate to say it, but I think either just missing the playoffs or losing in the first round is what to expect. Until I see otherwise, I am expecting the same Bengals that we have seen over the past few seasons.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finished an extremely disappointing 2015 season at 5-11. They seem to have too much talent on the roster to be a 5-11 team, but just ask the Dallas Cowboys what a bunch of talent gets you. It gets you absolutely nothing. Baltimore took Ronnie Stanley in the first round, and many people considered him to be one of the best players in the draft. Losing Kelechi Osemele was tough, but I think the team is hoping that the loss can be offset by adding Stanley to the offensive line. I would be very surprised to see this team go 5-11 again, but making the playoffs will be difficult.
Ceiling: The Ravens are a melting pot of very good players and veterans likely past their prime. If Joe Flacco has an outstanding year and the defense is better than they look like on paper, maybe Baltimore can make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. I do not see them winning any playoff games though.
Floor: I still think this team is better than 5-11, but it is definitely possible that they go 0-4 in their games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. They also get the AFC East and NFC East, so you have to figure there will be multiple losses there. So in reality, maybe 5-11 is possible. They are not worse than Cleveland, but this team surely could be picking early in the draft next year because they win seven games at the most.
Reality: Like I said, I do not see this team going 5-11 again, but I find it highly unlikely that they are able to overtake Pittsburgh or Cincinnati at the top of the division. Maybe they can hit 7-9, and if they get a bunch of breaks possibly even 8-8, but I don't think this is a playoff team this year.
Cleveland Browns
Last, and least, we have the Cleveland Browns. LeBron James came home and finally won a title for the city of Cleveland, and the Browns organization should be thanking him for that. This has been an organization that has been far below-average from top to bottom for years and years now, and I do not think that anything is going to change in 2016. The team made a big splash in the offseason by bringing in Robert Griffin III, but the problem is he has not been any good for multiple years now. Josh Gordon has all of this talent and was the best wide receiver in football three years ago. Since then, he has done nothing but fail drug tests and been suspended multiple times. And forgive me for saying this, but any time a team has gone into a season with Josh McCown having a shot at the starting quarterback job, it has ended very badly.
The Browns are clearly the worst team in this division. Once the calendar hits October, the fans in Cleveland will be awaiting the start of the Cavaliers' season.
Ceiling: If this team finishes anywhere other than last place in the division, I would be very, very surprised. When I look at their roster, the first thing I think of is how hard it must be for Joe Thomas to still be one of the best offensive linemen in football yet be stuck on a horrendous team. The Browns were 3-13 last year. If they somehow got to 6-10 this year, their fans should be ecstatic.
Floor: I will put this in the simplest terms possible. If the Browns have the first overall selection in the 2017 draft, I don't think many people would be surprised.
Reality: I think it is near impossible for this team to finish anywhere other than last in the division. If RG3 somehow has a miraculous turnaround and is able to stay healthy for all 16 games, maybe they can expect 5-11 at best. However, I still find that hard to believe, and I think the Browns will be one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Ugh. Another loss in Los Angeles last night and the team only slides further into the basement. Hope for the playoffs has been gone for a while now, and the most interesting point of the regular season might actually be within the next two days since the trade deadline is only one day away.
Daily Giants Update: Training camp is underway, so obviously everyone is thinking positively now. Victor Cruz is out on the field, but I don't want to say anything about that because every time his name is mentioned, I feel like he is closer to some sort of injury. That is all.
Saturday, July 30, 2016
Friday, July 29, 2016
It's never too early to talk football
With training camps officially underway and most contract disputes finally worked out, we are now officially allowed to at least begin to think about football. It's like at the end of the Thanksgiving Day parade. We celebrate Thanksgiving, but at the very end, Santa Claus rides in and Christmas, Part 1, finally begins. The open of training camp is just like that. We are far enough away from Week 1 that football is not on the mind of everyone like it will be in September, but the football shopping season is actually here.
The great equalizer in football is always the ever-looming threat of injury. During the preseason, we will see at least a few big names go down that will have a significant impact on the season. Last year it was Jordy Nelson. The previous year it was Sean Lee. There are always season-ending injuries that occur months before the season during training camps. It stinks, but it is simply the reality of the NFL world. It has been a while since I have made any preseason predictions, but with football on my mind, I want to do that today. However, since injuries inevitably do always happen, I do want to mention that these predictions will be based upon rosters as they stand now. Suspensions and contracts are all pretty much ironed out, but the injuries will be coming. So with that asterisk, here are my 2016 NFL predictions. I will start in the AFC.
AFC East
For most of the past decade, this division has belonged to the New England Patriots. Tom Brady finally gave up his fight against a four-game suspension though, and Jimmy Garoppolo will be at the helm for New England during the first four games of this season while Brady will not be allowed to be in contact with the team. It does theoretically give extra hope to the rest of the division, but we are talking about the Patriots here, so fans of the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins should not get their hopes up too high.
New England Patriots - As I just mentioned, Brady will be out for the first four games. New England opens the season with a very tough game in Arizona, and they also play Buffalo and Miami, so that will be a big chance for both of those teams to jump out to an early lead in the division as they will get a Brady-less Patriots team.
However, like I said, we are talking about the Patriots here, and they always find a way to make things work, even when the deck is stacked against them. If New England can make it through those first four games at 2-2, I think they will still be in good shape.
Obviously, the offense will be very good, but New England's defense was above-average last season. Losing Chandler Jones will surely be tough, but they added some pieces on the defensive side of the ball as well. The Patriots have won 12 games in each of the past four seasons, and I think we should expect double digit wins again, despite Brady missing the first four games.
Ceiling: As has always been the case with New England over the past decade, the ceiling is winning the Super Bowl.
Floor: If Garoppolo struggles early on and New England drops to something like 1-3, there might be some cause for concern, but even if that happens, I still think Brady and Co. will be able to overcome a slow start.
Reality: As usual, we should be watching the Patriots playing into January. Maybe they won't win the Super Bowl, but it is definitely what they have their sights set on.
New York Jets: Now that Ryan Fitzpatrick has finally re-signed with the team, I think Jets fans should be going into this season feeling pretty optimistic. A team that has never really been synonymous with a great offense has the potential to be pretty good on that side of the ball. They replaced the now retired D'Brickashaw Ferguson with Ryan Clady and added Matt Forte to replace Chris Ivory. Losing Ferguson and Ivory hurts, but I think they still do have enough on the offensive side of the ball to be good enough.
I hear a ton of people saying that the Jets have a Super Bowl caliber defense, and while it is definitely the strength of the team, I do not think it is up to that level. They did draft Darron Lee in the first round, but they also lost a few good pieces as well. Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off of a career season (Week 17 aside), and I think with the weapons he has in place and a defense that is definitely in the top-third of the league, the preseason optimism of Jets fans is warranted.
Ceiling: While I do not think that the Jets will finish ahead of New England, I do think that they have a roster that can at least be playoff-caliber. They were 10-6 last year but missed the playoffs. I do think they might be able to make the playoffs, but at best, I see this team winning one playoff game and then going out in the divisional round.
Floor: The Jets have an extremely tough schedule in 2016. They have to go to Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Kansas City, and they also have games with Cincinnati, Seattle, Baltimore, and Indianapolis, as well as their two annual games with the Patriots. I find it tough to believe that they will finish last in the division, but with a schedule like that, I think 6-10 could be possible.
Reality: The schedule cannot be ignored here. Not only are the games outside the division tough, but they are also the only team in the division that will not face New England during the first four weeks, so that means they will get to see Tom Brady twice. It will be difficult for them to win 10 games again this season, so I think something like 9-7 or 8-8 is what we are looking at here.
Buffalo Bills: Buffalo has the potential to be a pretty good team, but with that man named Rex Ryan on the sideline, we all know by now that his bark is far larger than his bite. The Bills did lose some on defense, but between the draft and free agency, I think their already stout defense will be improved. They have some explosive weapons on offense, but they will need to stay healthy, and that begins with Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor really surprised me last season with how well he played, and their offensive line is good. If they are able to stay healthy, this team could have a pretty good offense and a very good defense.
Ceiling: On paper, the Bills look like a team that could potentially sneak up on some people and be pretty good. Adding Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland to the defense via the draft definitely helps there, and Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy elite offensive playmakers as long as they can stay on the field. If all goes well, I think Buffalo can make the playoffs, but I don't think they can win a game once they get there.
Floor: If the injury bug hits and Tyrod Taylor takes a step backwards, it will be another disappointing year for the Bills. They went 9-7 in 2014 and 8-8 in 2015, and the Bills always seem to be involved in at least one crazy and unexpected game each season. However, that does not mean those kind of games will end in their favor. If things go awry, I think Buffalo might be looking at a 6-10 season, and maybe worse if things spiral far out of control.
Reality: I do actually like the way that this roster looks on paper, but they have injury concerns and/or inexperience in a lot of key spots. I think they have what could be a very good defense (remember the name Preston Brown), but I really find it tough to believe that any team led by Tyrod Taylor can make any noise into January. Maybe if everything breaks in their favor Buffalo sneaks into the playoffs, but I find it almost impossible to believe that they would win a playoff game if they even get there.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins made the most news this offseason thanks to the Laremy Tunsil draft fiasco, and in my opinion, that is the closest they will get to the back page of the newspapers in all of 2016. Optimists can look at Ryan Tannehill and say that he has the potential to be pretty good, and he is still young enough for me to believe that he does have room to develop and grow, but until I see him lead Miami to anything better than an 8-8 season, I can prove his supporters wrong. They were in the middle of the pack (at best) in most categories both offensively and defensively in 2015, and they did add a few familiar names in the offseason, but I just don't think it is enough.
Ceiling: If guys like Ndamukong Suh, Mario Williams, Byron Maxwell, and Kiko Alonso can play at their peaks, then the defense has the potential to be pretty good. However, despite all of their names being familiar to most football fans, there is a reason that all of them have bounced around to and from multiple teams. Miami lacks talent in key spots on offense, and I just don't think Tannehill is good enough to offset all of those deficiencies by himself. I think 8-8 is as good as it gets here.
Floor: As is the case with the entire division here, since they all get the NFC West and the AFC North, the schedule will be very tough. Miami opens on the road against Seattle and New England, and then they go to Cincinnati for Week 4. Their schedule in December is at Baltimore, home for Arizona, at the Jets, at Buffalo, and home for New England. Any momentum they might have going into those final five games probably will be squashed. The floor is last place in the division and possibly a 5-11 or 4-12 season.
Reality: The Dolphins won 8 games in 2014 and 6 in 2015, and I would not be surprised if that total dropped once again in 2016. In my mind, Miami will be fighting to stay out of last place in the division.
That is all for the first day of my NFL previews. Next up will be the AFC North.
Daily Giants Update: As I said, training camps are underway. Victor Cruz has pledged that he will be back and better than ever in 2016, but I will believe it when I see it. Preseason games are still a while away, so at this point all we are looking for is a rapport to be formed with the veterans and newcomers.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: One of the reasons I am already looking forward to football is because of the struggles of the Diamondbacks. At 42-60, it is tough to see any drastic improvement in the second half, and right now it seems like the only hope will be to stay out of last place in the division. We begin a set in Los Angeles tonight.
The great equalizer in football is always the ever-looming threat of injury. During the preseason, we will see at least a few big names go down that will have a significant impact on the season. Last year it was Jordy Nelson. The previous year it was Sean Lee. There are always season-ending injuries that occur months before the season during training camps. It stinks, but it is simply the reality of the NFL world. It has been a while since I have made any preseason predictions, but with football on my mind, I want to do that today. However, since injuries inevitably do always happen, I do want to mention that these predictions will be based upon rosters as they stand now. Suspensions and contracts are all pretty much ironed out, but the injuries will be coming. So with that asterisk, here are my 2016 NFL predictions. I will start in the AFC.
AFC East
For most of the past decade, this division has belonged to the New England Patriots. Tom Brady finally gave up his fight against a four-game suspension though, and Jimmy Garoppolo will be at the helm for New England during the first four games of this season while Brady will not be allowed to be in contact with the team. It does theoretically give extra hope to the rest of the division, but we are talking about the Patriots here, so fans of the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins should not get their hopes up too high.
New England Patriots - As I just mentioned, Brady will be out for the first four games. New England opens the season with a very tough game in Arizona, and they also play Buffalo and Miami, so that will be a big chance for both of those teams to jump out to an early lead in the division as they will get a Brady-less Patriots team.
However, like I said, we are talking about the Patriots here, and they always find a way to make things work, even when the deck is stacked against them. If New England can make it through those first four games at 2-2, I think they will still be in good shape.
Obviously, the offense will be very good, but New England's defense was above-average last season. Losing Chandler Jones will surely be tough, but they added some pieces on the defensive side of the ball as well. The Patriots have won 12 games in each of the past four seasons, and I think we should expect double digit wins again, despite Brady missing the first four games.
Ceiling: As has always been the case with New England over the past decade, the ceiling is winning the Super Bowl.
Floor: If Garoppolo struggles early on and New England drops to something like 1-3, there might be some cause for concern, but even if that happens, I still think Brady and Co. will be able to overcome a slow start.
Reality: As usual, we should be watching the Patriots playing into January. Maybe they won't win the Super Bowl, but it is definitely what they have their sights set on.
New York Jets: Now that Ryan Fitzpatrick has finally re-signed with the team, I think Jets fans should be going into this season feeling pretty optimistic. A team that has never really been synonymous with a great offense has the potential to be pretty good on that side of the ball. They replaced the now retired D'Brickashaw Ferguson with Ryan Clady and added Matt Forte to replace Chris Ivory. Losing Ferguson and Ivory hurts, but I think they still do have enough on the offensive side of the ball to be good enough.
I hear a ton of people saying that the Jets have a Super Bowl caliber defense, and while it is definitely the strength of the team, I do not think it is up to that level. They did draft Darron Lee in the first round, but they also lost a few good pieces as well. Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off of a career season (Week 17 aside), and I think with the weapons he has in place and a defense that is definitely in the top-third of the league, the preseason optimism of Jets fans is warranted.
Ceiling: While I do not think that the Jets will finish ahead of New England, I do think that they have a roster that can at least be playoff-caliber. They were 10-6 last year but missed the playoffs. I do think they might be able to make the playoffs, but at best, I see this team winning one playoff game and then going out in the divisional round.
Floor: The Jets have an extremely tough schedule in 2016. They have to go to Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Kansas City, and they also have games with Cincinnati, Seattle, Baltimore, and Indianapolis, as well as their two annual games with the Patriots. I find it tough to believe that they will finish last in the division, but with a schedule like that, I think 6-10 could be possible.
Reality: The schedule cannot be ignored here. Not only are the games outside the division tough, but they are also the only team in the division that will not face New England during the first four weeks, so that means they will get to see Tom Brady twice. It will be difficult for them to win 10 games again this season, so I think something like 9-7 or 8-8 is what we are looking at here.
Buffalo Bills: Buffalo has the potential to be a pretty good team, but with that man named Rex Ryan on the sideline, we all know by now that his bark is far larger than his bite. The Bills did lose some on defense, but between the draft and free agency, I think their already stout defense will be improved. They have some explosive weapons on offense, but they will need to stay healthy, and that begins with Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor really surprised me last season with how well he played, and their offensive line is good. If they are able to stay healthy, this team could have a pretty good offense and a very good defense.
Ceiling: On paper, the Bills look like a team that could potentially sneak up on some people and be pretty good. Adding Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland to the defense via the draft definitely helps there, and Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy elite offensive playmakers as long as they can stay on the field. If all goes well, I think Buffalo can make the playoffs, but I don't think they can win a game once they get there.
Floor: If the injury bug hits and Tyrod Taylor takes a step backwards, it will be another disappointing year for the Bills. They went 9-7 in 2014 and 8-8 in 2015, and the Bills always seem to be involved in at least one crazy and unexpected game each season. However, that does not mean those kind of games will end in their favor. If things go awry, I think Buffalo might be looking at a 6-10 season, and maybe worse if things spiral far out of control.
Reality: I do actually like the way that this roster looks on paper, but they have injury concerns and/or inexperience in a lot of key spots. I think they have what could be a very good defense (remember the name Preston Brown), but I really find it tough to believe that any team led by Tyrod Taylor can make any noise into January. Maybe if everything breaks in their favor Buffalo sneaks into the playoffs, but I find it almost impossible to believe that they would win a playoff game if they even get there.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins made the most news this offseason thanks to the Laremy Tunsil draft fiasco, and in my opinion, that is the closest they will get to the back page of the newspapers in all of 2016. Optimists can look at Ryan Tannehill and say that he has the potential to be pretty good, and he is still young enough for me to believe that he does have room to develop and grow, but until I see him lead Miami to anything better than an 8-8 season, I can prove his supporters wrong. They were in the middle of the pack (at best) in most categories both offensively and defensively in 2015, and they did add a few familiar names in the offseason, but I just don't think it is enough.
Ceiling: If guys like Ndamukong Suh, Mario Williams, Byron Maxwell, and Kiko Alonso can play at their peaks, then the defense has the potential to be pretty good. However, despite all of their names being familiar to most football fans, there is a reason that all of them have bounced around to and from multiple teams. Miami lacks talent in key spots on offense, and I just don't think Tannehill is good enough to offset all of those deficiencies by himself. I think 8-8 is as good as it gets here.
Floor: As is the case with the entire division here, since they all get the NFC West and the AFC North, the schedule will be very tough. Miami opens on the road against Seattle and New England, and then they go to Cincinnati for Week 4. Their schedule in December is at Baltimore, home for Arizona, at the Jets, at Buffalo, and home for New England. Any momentum they might have going into those final five games probably will be squashed. The floor is last place in the division and possibly a 5-11 or 4-12 season.
Reality: The Dolphins won 8 games in 2014 and 6 in 2015, and I would not be surprised if that total dropped once again in 2016. In my mind, Miami will be fighting to stay out of last place in the division.
That is all for the first day of my NFL previews. Next up will be the AFC North.
Daily Giants Update: As I said, training camps are underway. Victor Cruz has pledged that he will be back and better than ever in 2016, but I will believe it when I see it. Preseason games are still a while away, so at this point all we are looking for is a rapport to be formed with the veterans and newcomers.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: One of the reasons I am already looking forward to football is because of the struggles of the Diamondbacks. At 42-60, it is tough to see any drastic improvement in the second half, and right now it seems like the only hope will be to stay out of last place in the division. We begin a set in Los Angeles tonight.
Monday, July 18, 2016
A historic day that I had no problem missing out on
Whether we as sports fans would like to admit it or not, the popularity of professional sports in the United States is based around star power. When we think of individual sports at their peaks, we think of the greatest players of all-time and the eras in which they played. Right now, without question, the two biggest professional sports in this country are football and basketball. Names like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James, as well as many others, are the biggest reasons for this. If we look back over the past century, superstar power equals nationwide popularity.
Because baseball has a history that far outdates any of our other sports, at the turn of the century, baseball had no rival. It is why, despite what many feel is an outdated claim, baseball fanatics will always refer to baseball as the "national pastime." During the first half of the 20th century, baseball ruled the sports world. Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb were the star athletes. Even after them, names like Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams still ruled the sports world. The NBA, NHL, and NFL had nothing on baseball. The "second" sport in the eyes of many was actually boxing, and that was thanks to a very historically overlooked man named Joe Louis. Boxing never actually overtook baseball in popularity, but during Louis' prime, it was surely in second place.
Golf was also somewhat popular as well thanks to names like Byron Nelson, Sam Snead, and Ben Hogan, who were all in their prime during the 1940's and 1950's. Collegiate football was actually bigger than most of our professional sports as well. Before anyone ever heard of the NFL, college football was at the top of the ladder.
When the 1960's came around, thanks to a wide array of shifts in American culture, other sports became more popular. Baseball was still very popular, but when icons like Muhammad Ali, Bill Russell, Vince Lombardi, Red Auerbach, and Jim Brown came around, they elevated their respective sports.
While it had been popular before, Ali brought the sport of boxing to heights it had never seen before. The Celtics may have been winning championships on almost a yearly basis, but Russell, Auerbach, as well as Wilt Chamberlain were bringing basketball into the eyes of the nation. Jim Brown, significant both on and off the field, Vince Lombardi, and the dawn of the Super Bowl era were ushering in the NFL that we know today as the most popular sport in our country. Throughout this all, baseball was still littered with stars like Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, and Hank Aaron, but it was no longer the only sport that remained in the spotlight. Superstar and iconic names were reaching their peaks in other sports as well, and baseball was no longer the only sport that was followed on a regular basis throughout the country.
So then what happened next? Russell and Chamberlain retired, and the NBA was bereft of superstar talent and iconic names. Ali retired and while he was always the dominant force in boxing during his time, guys like Joe Frazier and George Foreman began to be overlooked before they eventually retired as well. Baseball was even in somewhat of a downswing during that era. There were certainly Hall of Fame players at the top of their games, but most fans would have a tough time naming anyone on the roster of the 1973 Oakland Athletics or the 1984 Detroit Tigers. The NHL could possibly claim that it was closer to the peak of American sports culture during that time, as the New York Islanders and Montreal Canadiens dominated the 1970's and into the 1980's.
Nate Thurmond, a Hall of Fame NBA player who died only a few days ago, was at his peak in the 1970's, and if you asked the casual sports fan about him, I would guess that most would not even be able to name the team that he played for, let alone the fact that he was one of the few players in the league to ever record a quadruple-double in a game. He just was not a superstar name and he did not play for a superstar team.
I think that a big part of the popularity of the NFL today is due to what happened in the sports world in the 1970's. Ali, Russell, and Brown were gone. There were no dynasties in Major League Baseball. The NFL had its chance to strike, and thanks to the Steel Curtain defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, and the beginning of the Dallas Cowboys dynasty, the NFL was able to take center stage.
As we entered the 1980's, icons like Magic Johnson and Larry Bird took center stage. The NFL was still building its multi-billion dollar enterprise that we know today, but it was once again time for the NBA. Baseball was still in somewhat of a lull, the NHL was waiting on a legend, and boxing was in the midst of a lull as well, as only the most ardent of fans could name more than a few iconic boxers of the early 80's. The Celtics had been the legendary franchise two decades earlier, and they were about to be legendary once again.
Larry Bird and Magic Johnson was the biggest rivalry in the 1980's, and at the end of the decade they would pass the torch to the greatest player to ever play the game. The NHL was about to undergo a similar transformation, as its greatest player ever broke on to the scene in the 80's. Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky were as iconic as it gets, and they led their respective leagues to national prominence.
Once the 1990's rolled around, with Gretzky and Jordan both still at the top of their games, baseball and boxing were afterthoughts. Mike Tyson had a meteoric rise and fall to give boxing a temporary shot in the arm, but in many ways, the sport was never the same after Tyson was knocked out by Buster Douglas. The early 1990's gave us some great baseball games, including what I believe is the greatest game ever played, the 1991 World Series pitching masterpiece that pitted John Smoltz against Jack Morris, but ask anyone you know who had the walkoff hit to end that series and I guarantee you that 999 out of 1,000 will not know the answer. Joe Carter had an iconic moment in 1993, but his name or the name of the Toronto Blue Jays was not one that will be passed on from generation to generation.
In the prime of his career, Michael Jordan ruled the 1990's. The Dallas Cowboys had their second run as champions, but they were still not on the level of Jordan and the Bulls. The New York Yankees had their dynasty late in the decade, but they are still third place. The NHL had been fading from the conscience of the American public, and boxing was at most an afterthought.
That brought us to the second half of the 1990's and a man named Tiger Woods. Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer are two of the greatest to ever play the game of golf, but their names are not as transcendent as Woods. There is Wilt, there is Kobe, there is LeBron, there is Shaq, there is a few select others, and there is Tiger. One word is all you need to know the sport and the man. The impact that Woods had on the game of golf is arguably greater than the impact on any athlete in any sport. I understand that all of the Michael Jordan fanatics out there all believe that Jordan is the greatest person in the history of human civilization, but he did not have the impact on the game of basketball like Tiger Woods impacted the game of golf.
Golf was a game for old, rich white men. It cost too much to be a member at a club and play the game, it was too long, and there was not enough action. When Tiger Woods came along, all of that changed. Woods brought in a young audience (black and white) that had never cared one bit for the game prior to his rise to prominence. His peak was entirely parallel to the peak of professional golf. If a tournament was on television, there was only one question worth asking. Is Tiger playing? If he is, then the ratings are through the roof. If he is not, then no one cares to watch. And that is where I want to try to circle this back to my original point. Golf does not have a superstar right now, and because of that, I really am not entirely concerned with watching it. And I am not the only one that feels that way.
Byron Nelson and Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods were names that were bigger than the sport. We weren't watching golf. We were watching legends. However, if those guys are not playing, we are watching some boring sport and wondering why we ever cared about golf in the first place. Right now golf is in a place where the casual fan is wondering why we ever cared about the sport in the first place. As is the case with any sport, the most ardent of fans will always care. It is why soccer fans and tennis fans and golf fans will defend their sport to the death. But to the casual fan, we need something more than that. Talk about Jordan Spieth or Jason Day or Rory McIlroy all you want, but they are not names that make me want to tune in to the final day of the British Open. Henrik Stenson won the event, and if I walked past Henrik Stenson on the street tomorrow, I would not know who he was.
The bottom line is, the American public, no matter what they say, wants to see superstars when they watch sports. They might want to root against them or they might want to root for them, but in reality, they just want to see them. It might be too much to ask for another legend like Tiger Woods to come along, but in order for golf to capture the focus of the nation again, we need someone near his level to get out there on the course. As of right now, I do not see that out there and because of that, I will not stay up at night wishing I saw the final round of the British Open.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: The team followed up an exciting extra inning walkoff win with another victory over the Dodgers last night, and after a day off today, the Blue Jays come to Arizona for a quick two game series. That is followed by seven games against the struggling Reds and Brewers, so maybe a nice little winning streak can come about over the next week.
Daily NFL Update: Franchise deals are being signed, as Von Miller is back with the defending champion Broncos, but they still have huge issues at quarterback, and the Jets are in the same position with the still unsigned Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tom Brady also finally dropped his appeal and will serve his suspension of four games to start this season, which I was somewhat surprised by.
Daily NBA Update: The free agent chips have mostly fallen now, and it seems that Golden State is surely the favorite going into next season, with Cleveland probably being the favorite again in the Eastern Conference. I'm not sure how long it has been since the same teams have met in the NBA Finals in three consecutive years, but as of right now, that definitely seems like a distinct possibility if everything goes as planned. However, everything very rarely goes as planned...
Because baseball has a history that far outdates any of our other sports, at the turn of the century, baseball had no rival. It is why, despite what many feel is an outdated claim, baseball fanatics will always refer to baseball as the "national pastime." During the first half of the 20th century, baseball ruled the sports world. Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb were the star athletes. Even after them, names like Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams still ruled the sports world. The NBA, NHL, and NFL had nothing on baseball. The "second" sport in the eyes of many was actually boxing, and that was thanks to a very historically overlooked man named Joe Louis. Boxing never actually overtook baseball in popularity, but during Louis' prime, it was surely in second place.
Golf was also somewhat popular as well thanks to names like Byron Nelson, Sam Snead, and Ben Hogan, who were all in their prime during the 1940's and 1950's. Collegiate football was actually bigger than most of our professional sports as well. Before anyone ever heard of the NFL, college football was at the top of the ladder.
When the 1960's came around, thanks to a wide array of shifts in American culture, other sports became more popular. Baseball was still very popular, but when icons like Muhammad Ali, Bill Russell, Vince Lombardi, Red Auerbach, and Jim Brown came around, they elevated their respective sports.
While it had been popular before, Ali brought the sport of boxing to heights it had never seen before. The Celtics may have been winning championships on almost a yearly basis, but Russell, Auerbach, as well as Wilt Chamberlain were bringing basketball into the eyes of the nation. Jim Brown, significant both on and off the field, Vince Lombardi, and the dawn of the Super Bowl era were ushering in the NFL that we know today as the most popular sport in our country. Throughout this all, baseball was still littered with stars like Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, and Hank Aaron, but it was no longer the only sport that remained in the spotlight. Superstar and iconic names were reaching their peaks in other sports as well, and baseball was no longer the only sport that was followed on a regular basis throughout the country.
So then what happened next? Russell and Chamberlain retired, and the NBA was bereft of superstar talent and iconic names. Ali retired and while he was always the dominant force in boxing during his time, guys like Joe Frazier and George Foreman began to be overlooked before they eventually retired as well. Baseball was even in somewhat of a downswing during that era. There were certainly Hall of Fame players at the top of their games, but most fans would have a tough time naming anyone on the roster of the 1973 Oakland Athletics or the 1984 Detroit Tigers. The NHL could possibly claim that it was closer to the peak of American sports culture during that time, as the New York Islanders and Montreal Canadiens dominated the 1970's and into the 1980's.
Nate Thurmond, a Hall of Fame NBA player who died only a few days ago, was at his peak in the 1970's, and if you asked the casual sports fan about him, I would guess that most would not even be able to name the team that he played for, let alone the fact that he was one of the few players in the league to ever record a quadruple-double in a game. He just was not a superstar name and he did not play for a superstar team.
I think that a big part of the popularity of the NFL today is due to what happened in the sports world in the 1970's. Ali, Russell, and Brown were gone. There were no dynasties in Major League Baseball. The NFL had its chance to strike, and thanks to the Steel Curtain defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, and the beginning of the Dallas Cowboys dynasty, the NFL was able to take center stage.
As we entered the 1980's, icons like Magic Johnson and Larry Bird took center stage. The NFL was still building its multi-billion dollar enterprise that we know today, but it was once again time for the NBA. Baseball was still in somewhat of a lull, the NHL was waiting on a legend, and boxing was in the midst of a lull as well, as only the most ardent of fans could name more than a few iconic boxers of the early 80's. The Celtics had been the legendary franchise two decades earlier, and they were about to be legendary once again.
Larry Bird and Magic Johnson was the biggest rivalry in the 1980's, and at the end of the decade they would pass the torch to the greatest player to ever play the game. The NHL was about to undergo a similar transformation, as its greatest player ever broke on to the scene in the 80's. Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky were as iconic as it gets, and they led their respective leagues to national prominence.
Once the 1990's rolled around, with Gretzky and Jordan both still at the top of their games, baseball and boxing were afterthoughts. Mike Tyson had a meteoric rise and fall to give boxing a temporary shot in the arm, but in many ways, the sport was never the same after Tyson was knocked out by Buster Douglas. The early 1990's gave us some great baseball games, including what I believe is the greatest game ever played, the 1991 World Series pitching masterpiece that pitted John Smoltz against Jack Morris, but ask anyone you know who had the walkoff hit to end that series and I guarantee you that 999 out of 1,000 will not know the answer. Joe Carter had an iconic moment in 1993, but his name or the name of the Toronto Blue Jays was not one that will be passed on from generation to generation.
In the prime of his career, Michael Jordan ruled the 1990's. The Dallas Cowboys had their second run as champions, but they were still not on the level of Jordan and the Bulls. The New York Yankees had their dynasty late in the decade, but they are still third place. The NHL had been fading from the conscience of the American public, and boxing was at most an afterthought.
That brought us to the second half of the 1990's and a man named Tiger Woods. Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer are two of the greatest to ever play the game of golf, but their names are not as transcendent as Woods. There is Wilt, there is Kobe, there is LeBron, there is Shaq, there is a few select others, and there is Tiger. One word is all you need to know the sport and the man. The impact that Woods had on the game of golf is arguably greater than the impact on any athlete in any sport. I understand that all of the Michael Jordan fanatics out there all believe that Jordan is the greatest person in the history of human civilization, but he did not have the impact on the game of basketball like Tiger Woods impacted the game of golf.
Golf was a game for old, rich white men. It cost too much to be a member at a club and play the game, it was too long, and there was not enough action. When Tiger Woods came along, all of that changed. Woods brought in a young audience (black and white) that had never cared one bit for the game prior to his rise to prominence. His peak was entirely parallel to the peak of professional golf. If a tournament was on television, there was only one question worth asking. Is Tiger playing? If he is, then the ratings are through the roof. If he is not, then no one cares to watch. And that is where I want to try to circle this back to my original point. Golf does not have a superstar right now, and because of that, I really am not entirely concerned with watching it. And I am not the only one that feels that way.
Byron Nelson and Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods were names that were bigger than the sport. We weren't watching golf. We were watching legends. However, if those guys are not playing, we are watching some boring sport and wondering why we ever cared about golf in the first place. Right now golf is in a place where the casual fan is wondering why we ever cared about the sport in the first place. As is the case with any sport, the most ardent of fans will always care. It is why soccer fans and tennis fans and golf fans will defend their sport to the death. But to the casual fan, we need something more than that. Talk about Jordan Spieth or Jason Day or Rory McIlroy all you want, but they are not names that make me want to tune in to the final day of the British Open. Henrik Stenson won the event, and if I walked past Henrik Stenson on the street tomorrow, I would not know who he was.
The bottom line is, the American public, no matter what they say, wants to see superstars when they watch sports. They might want to root against them or they might want to root for them, but in reality, they just want to see them. It might be too much to ask for another legend like Tiger Woods to come along, but in order for golf to capture the focus of the nation again, we need someone near his level to get out there on the course. As of right now, I do not see that out there and because of that, I will not stay up at night wishing I saw the final round of the British Open.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: The team followed up an exciting extra inning walkoff win with another victory over the Dodgers last night, and after a day off today, the Blue Jays come to Arizona for a quick two game series. That is followed by seven games against the struggling Reds and Brewers, so maybe a nice little winning streak can come about over the next week.
Daily NFL Update: Franchise deals are being signed, as Von Miller is back with the defending champion Broncos, but they still have huge issues at quarterback, and the Jets are in the same position with the still unsigned Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tom Brady also finally dropped his appeal and will serve his suspension of four games to start this season, which I was somewhat surprised by.
Daily NBA Update: The free agent chips have mostly fallen now, and it seems that Golden State is surely the favorite going into next season, with Cleveland probably being the favorite again in the Eastern Conference. I'm not sure how long it has been since the same teams have met in the NBA Finals in three consecutive years, but as of right now, that definitely seems like a distinct possibility if everything goes as planned. However, everything very rarely goes as planned...
Sunday, July 10, 2016
The gross misunderstanding of the concept of the "highest paid athlete"
While the initial salary boom of the NBA offseason has now passed us by, there are still major dollars out there to be made. With all of these dollars, as is the case with money in all walks of life, comes expectations. You are paid for performance, and when athletes sign contracts for millions of dollars, the public demands that they live up to what we expect of them. I have no problem with the opinion of some people that athletes are overpaid in some cases. While I fervently disagree with anyone who takes that stance, they are entitled to believe it. Any person, in any profession, is worth whatever somebody is willing to pay them. We can dispute just how much professional athletes might deserve to be paid in comparison to other people, but let anyone trade shoes with Tyler Johnson or Allen Crabbe and see if they turn down the contracts that those two men just signed. I guarantee they would sign the deals as fast as they could write their name on a piece of paper.
There are many things that casual sports fans likely do not understand about the business of sports, and I will admit that while I am as ardent a fan of sports that you will meet, there are plenty of things that I do not understand about the business of sports as well. What is even worse is the fact that there are also countless numbers of professional athletes that have no clue about the business side of sports as well. It is why athletes have agents, but it is also why (sometimes, for better or worse, because of those agents) so many athletes retire and soon find themselves with no money. ESPN did a great 30 for 30 documentary about professional athletes going broke. It involved different reasons and different circumstances in each individual case, but the main idea of the piece was to show the world that the money that athletes make does not last forever. Get it while you can, because this is probably your only chance to do so.
Like I said, I do not pretend to know the ins and outs of the business of sports. There is one thing that I can speak on with at least some sort of knowledge though, and it is the concept that so many people seem incapable of understanding, and that is the concept of why the highest paid athletes in each sport make the amount of money that they do.
Right now, the highest paid athletes in our four major professional sports are Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew Luck, Alexander Ovechkin, and Mike Conley. When you think of our sports, those are not likely to be the names that come to mind when it comes to the top of their respective professions. Aside from Ovechkin, who I think many would argue is the best player in the NHL, those other three names are not the faces of their respective leagues.
Is Giancarlo Stanton a great baseball player? Yes, he is (although certainly try to overlook his subpar numbers in 2016). Is Conley a great basketball player and is Luck a great football player? Yes, they are. However, I highly doubt that any sports fan, casual or hardcore, would name those three as the best in their respective businesses. So why then, are they the ones making the most money? Well, the answer, in the simplest of terms, is this: timing.
It is well documented that the NBA salary cap just exploded, and the contracts we have seen being signed over the past month have been unprecedented. Kevin Durant was obviously the biggest name on the market, but he signed a deal worth $54 million, while Mike Conley signed a deal worth $153 million. How is that possible? It is possible because of the timing of the deals. Kevin Durant just signed a two-year deal with an opt-out clause after the first year. That means he will play this season in his new hometown of Oakland, opt out of his deal next year, and if all goes according to the Warriors' plan, he will re-sign a long-term deal next summer. I will bypass all of the math and the details, but because of the way the salary cap will increase exponentially again next summer, and because Durant will once again be a free agent since he can opt out of his deal, one year from now, we could be talking about Durant signing a deal worth over $200 million. $153 million for Mike Conley? That will be nothing compared to what Durant can make next summer. Durant will make more money because the time at which he signs his deal.
So Durant has already broken the bank this summer, and he will shatter it next summer. What will be even more fun next summer is to see what happens when his new teammate, Stephen Curry, becomes a free agent as well. Curry will experience his first unrestricted free agency period next summer, and if Durant will be due to shatter the bank, then Curry will probably help Durant shatter it and then burn the remains down to the ground after that. This is probably already getting repetitive, but I am trying to make this a point. Curry will be able to sign such a big deal because of the timing in which he signs it.
Before I continue this unbelievably amateurish look at the business of sports, I want to just throw in a history lesson as well. Decades ago, before anyone knew who Kevin Durant or Mike Conley or Stephen Curry or Giancarlo Stanton even were, athletes were tied to the teams that drafted them due to something known as a reserve clause. In the most basic of terms, what the reserve clause did was tie every player to his own team on a year to year basis. Free agency did not exist. Every player was offered a one-year contract prior to every season, and his only options were to sign the deal or to hold out in hopes of either being offered more money by his team, or for his team to trade him. There was no such thing as offering his services to the highest bidder.
You signed your deal or you did not play. Those were the only options. The NFL has had the franchise tag and the transition tag in place for many years now, and while it is not exactly the same as the reserve clause, it is something of a distant cousin. It is also why the NFL is able to control the money it pays to its players more than any other league allows. Just like decades ago, NFL players can in many ways be "held hostage" by their own teams, with their only recourse being the ability to hold out. It is why we hear about holdouts in the NFL much more so than in any other sport, and it is why the defending Super Bowl champions have still been unable to come to terms with Von Miller thus far, with training camp now less than a month away.
Casual sports fans have most likely never heard of the name Curt Flood, and it is likely that many ardent sports fans might only know his name but not really understand how influential he was to the business of professional sports that we know today. Flood was an All-Star caliber player, but his decision to challenge Major League Baseball and take his case all the way to the Supreme Court laid the groundwork for guys like Kevin Durant and Mike Conley to make as much money as they will now. Again, I will spare you the details, but thanks to Flood, free agency became commonplace in all professional sports, and it allowed our athletes to truly join the business world where your worth is truly open to the highest bidder.
So, with all of these history lessons aside, let's focus once again on the multi-million dollar contracts we see being signed today. I already explained why Durant, and then probably Curry as well, will soon become the highest paid NBA players. Next up is the NFL. With Andrew Luck recently becoming the highest paid player in the league, I think we can at least see a bit more justification than in the NBA. Luck plays the most important position in all of sports, he is young and just entering the prime of his career, and expectations in Indianapolis will be sky high as long as he is their quarterback.
Prior to Luck signing his deal, I remember nothing but outrage at the fact that Joe Flacco had signed an enormous contract with the Baltimore Ravens. There was no way he was the best at his position in the league, so why was he the highest paid then? Once again, it was because of timing. His contract happened to expire the year after he led the Ravens to a Super Bowl championship, and therefore the team had no choice but to pay him in order to keep him.
Cam Newton is making over $118 million, and I think many would say that he has the potential to be the future face of the league once guys like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers retire. However, he is not the highest paid player in the NFL because he signed his current deal prior to last season, a year in which his team went 15-1, he won MVP, and he went to the Super Bowl. Imagine what he would sign for if his contract were up this offseason instead of last offseason. Surely, he would now be the highest paid player in the league. Now don't get me wrong, I am sure that Newton is not complaining about that $118 million, but the timing of his deal just happened to be a year late, and because of that, he is not making as much money as Andrew Luck.
Basically, the best way to describe the highest paid player in the NFL is by looking at who the "next man up" is. And the next man up in terms of contract status is Matthew Stafford. Barring a spectacular season from Stafford and the Detroit Lions, I doubt Stafford will make as much money as Luck. However, do not be surprised when Stafford signs a deal worth more than most other quarterbacks in the league. And he can thank the timing of his deal for that.
Finally, if you thought Kevin Durant and Andrew Luck were making a lot of money, then make sure you are sitting down when you hear what Bryce Harper signs for following the 2018 MLB season. With one MVP under his belt already (and the definite possibility of another before 2018), Harper will become a free agent when he is 26 years old. As of today, Harper has hit 116 home runs in his career. He has hit 19 this season, with 52 RBI and 73 games left to play. So, let's shoot low and say he finishes the season with 35 home runs and 90 RBI. In actuality, barring injury, he will probably surpass at least one, if not both, of those numbers.
That means, after 2016, at the age of 24, Harper will have 132 home runs and 338 RBI. Barry Bonds, the all-time leader in career home runs had 84 after his age 24 season. No matter what you think about Bonds, how about we compare Harper to Babe Ruth? After his age 24 season, he had hit 76 home runs. 76 for Ruth. 84 for Bonds. 132 for Harper. And don't forget, I am shooting low here. It is surely possible that Harper ends up with more than 132 after 2018. Add that on to his overall ability, and once again, the timing of when his deal will be signed, and we are going to get a contract unlike anything we have ever seen in the history of sports.
With Giancarlo Stanton standing right now as the standard bearer for all of our sports at $325 million, I think the low estimate for Harper has to be $400 million when he signs in 2018. It might seem crazy, but I think Harper might be the first $500 million man we have ever seen, and once again, since I need to drive this point home, it is all because of timing.
Is Giancarlo Stanton the best baseball player in our game? No. But was he the last superstar we saw able to sign a big deal? Yes. Is Bryce Harper the best player in the game today? Arguably, yes. Is his time up for a new deal? No, but it is coming soon. That is exactly the same case in all of our other sports. Andrew Luck and Mike Conley are not the best in their respective leagues, but their ability and their timing matched up perfectly.
In many cases, the timing of these deals are pure luck, but sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. However, if you can match lucky and good together, then you can have a future just like Bryce Harper's. He may not be the highest paid player today, but being the highest paid player today does not mean you will remain at that peak forever. You could have sold your mansion right before our economy collapsed in 2009, or you could have sold it for a lesser value in 2011. The business of sports sometimes is just like the stock market. Bryce Harper is not trying to sell his house after the baseball economy collapsed. He is going to sell it when it is likely going to be thriving in 2018.
Buy low and sell high. Bear market and bull market. Economics and sports are more connected than most people realize, and when you are Mike Conley, Andrew Luck, and Bryce Harper, you are striking while the iron is hot. You may not be the best in your field, but your timing is impeccable, and in this thing we call life, timing is everything.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Arizona will look to avoid a sweep in San Francisco tonight in a very rare occurrence for the Diamondbacks, a nationally televised game on ESPN. Brad Ziegler was traded to Boston, and the team already seems to be in a seller mode even though we have yet to reach the All-Star break. America's first baseman has looked a lot better lately, and Jake Lamb is in the midst of a breakout year, but there have just been to many holes to fill. With Ziegler now out the door, it will be even tougher to lock down games in the late innings, but then again if the team keeps losing, I guess there really won't be too many late innings that need to be locked down anyway.
Daily Giants Update: Training camp is just getting closer minute by minute...
Daily NBA Update: Nothing new here to report, as it seems most of the chess pieces have been moved and we can being to slowly focus on the beginning of the 2017 season.
There are many things that casual sports fans likely do not understand about the business of sports, and I will admit that while I am as ardent a fan of sports that you will meet, there are plenty of things that I do not understand about the business of sports as well. What is even worse is the fact that there are also countless numbers of professional athletes that have no clue about the business side of sports as well. It is why athletes have agents, but it is also why (sometimes, for better or worse, because of those agents) so many athletes retire and soon find themselves with no money. ESPN did a great 30 for 30 documentary about professional athletes going broke. It involved different reasons and different circumstances in each individual case, but the main idea of the piece was to show the world that the money that athletes make does not last forever. Get it while you can, because this is probably your only chance to do so.
Like I said, I do not pretend to know the ins and outs of the business of sports. There is one thing that I can speak on with at least some sort of knowledge though, and it is the concept that so many people seem incapable of understanding, and that is the concept of why the highest paid athletes in each sport make the amount of money that they do.
Right now, the highest paid athletes in our four major professional sports are Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew Luck, Alexander Ovechkin, and Mike Conley. When you think of our sports, those are not likely to be the names that come to mind when it comes to the top of their respective professions. Aside from Ovechkin, who I think many would argue is the best player in the NHL, those other three names are not the faces of their respective leagues.
Is Giancarlo Stanton a great baseball player? Yes, he is (although certainly try to overlook his subpar numbers in 2016). Is Conley a great basketball player and is Luck a great football player? Yes, they are. However, I highly doubt that any sports fan, casual or hardcore, would name those three as the best in their respective businesses. So why then, are they the ones making the most money? Well, the answer, in the simplest of terms, is this: timing.
It is well documented that the NBA salary cap just exploded, and the contracts we have seen being signed over the past month have been unprecedented. Kevin Durant was obviously the biggest name on the market, but he signed a deal worth $54 million, while Mike Conley signed a deal worth $153 million. How is that possible? It is possible because of the timing of the deals. Kevin Durant just signed a two-year deal with an opt-out clause after the first year. That means he will play this season in his new hometown of Oakland, opt out of his deal next year, and if all goes according to the Warriors' plan, he will re-sign a long-term deal next summer. I will bypass all of the math and the details, but because of the way the salary cap will increase exponentially again next summer, and because Durant will once again be a free agent since he can opt out of his deal, one year from now, we could be talking about Durant signing a deal worth over $200 million. $153 million for Mike Conley? That will be nothing compared to what Durant can make next summer. Durant will make more money because the time at which he signs his deal.
So Durant has already broken the bank this summer, and he will shatter it next summer. What will be even more fun next summer is to see what happens when his new teammate, Stephen Curry, becomes a free agent as well. Curry will experience his first unrestricted free agency period next summer, and if Durant will be due to shatter the bank, then Curry will probably help Durant shatter it and then burn the remains down to the ground after that. This is probably already getting repetitive, but I am trying to make this a point. Curry will be able to sign such a big deal because of the timing in which he signs it.
Before I continue this unbelievably amateurish look at the business of sports, I want to just throw in a history lesson as well. Decades ago, before anyone knew who Kevin Durant or Mike Conley or Stephen Curry or Giancarlo Stanton even were, athletes were tied to the teams that drafted them due to something known as a reserve clause. In the most basic of terms, what the reserve clause did was tie every player to his own team on a year to year basis. Free agency did not exist. Every player was offered a one-year contract prior to every season, and his only options were to sign the deal or to hold out in hopes of either being offered more money by his team, or for his team to trade him. There was no such thing as offering his services to the highest bidder.
You signed your deal or you did not play. Those were the only options. The NFL has had the franchise tag and the transition tag in place for many years now, and while it is not exactly the same as the reserve clause, it is something of a distant cousin. It is also why the NFL is able to control the money it pays to its players more than any other league allows. Just like decades ago, NFL players can in many ways be "held hostage" by their own teams, with their only recourse being the ability to hold out. It is why we hear about holdouts in the NFL much more so than in any other sport, and it is why the defending Super Bowl champions have still been unable to come to terms with Von Miller thus far, with training camp now less than a month away.
Casual sports fans have most likely never heard of the name Curt Flood, and it is likely that many ardent sports fans might only know his name but not really understand how influential he was to the business of professional sports that we know today. Flood was an All-Star caliber player, but his decision to challenge Major League Baseball and take his case all the way to the Supreme Court laid the groundwork for guys like Kevin Durant and Mike Conley to make as much money as they will now. Again, I will spare you the details, but thanks to Flood, free agency became commonplace in all professional sports, and it allowed our athletes to truly join the business world where your worth is truly open to the highest bidder.
So, with all of these history lessons aside, let's focus once again on the multi-million dollar contracts we see being signed today. I already explained why Durant, and then probably Curry as well, will soon become the highest paid NBA players. Next up is the NFL. With Andrew Luck recently becoming the highest paid player in the league, I think we can at least see a bit more justification than in the NBA. Luck plays the most important position in all of sports, he is young and just entering the prime of his career, and expectations in Indianapolis will be sky high as long as he is their quarterback.
Prior to Luck signing his deal, I remember nothing but outrage at the fact that Joe Flacco had signed an enormous contract with the Baltimore Ravens. There was no way he was the best at his position in the league, so why was he the highest paid then? Once again, it was because of timing. His contract happened to expire the year after he led the Ravens to a Super Bowl championship, and therefore the team had no choice but to pay him in order to keep him.
Cam Newton is making over $118 million, and I think many would say that he has the potential to be the future face of the league once guys like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers retire. However, he is not the highest paid player in the NFL because he signed his current deal prior to last season, a year in which his team went 15-1, he won MVP, and he went to the Super Bowl. Imagine what he would sign for if his contract were up this offseason instead of last offseason. Surely, he would now be the highest paid player in the league. Now don't get me wrong, I am sure that Newton is not complaining about that $118 million, but the timing of his deal just happened to be a year late, and because of that, he is not making as much money as Andrew Luck.
Basically, the best way to describe the highest paid player in the NFL is by looking at who the "next man up" is. And the next man up in terms of contract status is Matthew Stafford. Barring a spectacular season from Stafford and the Detroit Lions, I doubt Stafford will make as much money as Luck. However, do not be surprised when Stafford signs a deal worth more than most other quarterbacks in the league. And he can thank the timing of his deal for that.
Finally, if you thought Kevin Durant and Andrew Luck were making a lot of money, then make sure you are sitting down when you hear what Bryce Harper signs for following the 2018 MLB season. With one MVP under his belt already (and the definite possibility of another before 2018), Harper will become a free agent when he is 26 years old. As of today, Harper has hit 116 home runs in his career. He has hit 19 this season, with 52 RBI and 73 games left to play. So, let's shoot low and say he finishes the season with 35 home runs and 90 RBI. In actuality, barring injury, he will probably surpass at least one, if not both, of those numbers.
That means, after 2016, at the age of 24, Harper will have 132 home runs and 338 RBI. Barry Bonds, the all-time leader in career home runs had 84 after his age 24 season. No matter what you think about Bonds, how about we compare Harper to Babe Ruth? After his age 24 season, he had hit 76 home runs. 76 for Ruth. 84 for Bonds. 132 for Harper. And don't forget, I am shooting low here. It is surely possible that Harper ends up with more than 132 after 2018. Add that on to his overall ability, and once again, the timing of when his deal will be signed, and we are going to get a contract unlike anything we have ever seen in the history of sports.
With Giancarlo Stanton standing right now as the standard bearer for all of our sports at $325 million, I think the low estimate for Harper has to be $400 million when he signs in 2018. It might seem crazy, but I think Harper might be the first $500 million man we have ever seen, and once again, since I need to drive this point home, it is all because of timing.
Is Giancarlo Stanton the best baseball player in our game? No. But was he the last superstar we saw able to sign a big deal? Yes. Is Bryce Harper the best player in the game today? Arguably, yes. Is his time up for a new deal? No, but it is coming soon. That is exactly the same case in all of our other sports. Andrew Luck and Mike Conley are not the best in their respective leagues, but their ability and their timing matched up perfectly.
In many cases, the timing of these deals are pure luck, but sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. However, if you can match lucky and good together, then you can have a future just like Bryce Harper's. He may not be the highest paid player today, but being the highest paid player today does not mean you will remain at that peak forever. You could have sold your mansion right before our economy collapsed in 2009, or you could have sold it for a lesser value in 2011. The business of sports sometimes is just like the stock market. Bryce Harper is not trying to sell his house after the baseball economy collapsed. He is going to sell it when it is likely going to be thriving in 2018.
Buy low and sell high. Bear market and bull market. Economics and sports are more connected than most people realize, and when you are Mike Conley, Andrew Luck, and Bryce Harper, you are striking while the iron is hot. You may not be the best in your field, but your timing is impeccable, and in this thing we call life, timing is everything.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Arizona will look to avoid a sweep in San Francisco tonight in a very rare occurrence for the Diamondbacks, a nationally televised game on ESPN. Brad Ziegler was traded to Boston, and the team already seems to be in a seller mode even though we have yet to reach the All-Star break. America's first baseman has looked a lot better lately, and Jake Lamb is in the midst of a breakout year, but there have just been to many holes to fill. With Ziegler now out the door, it will be even tougher to lock down games in the late innings, but then again if the team keeps losing, I guess there really won't be too many late innings that need to be locked down anyway.
Daily Giants Update: Training camp is just getting closer minute by minute...
Daily NBA Update: Nothing new here to report, as it seems most of the chess pieces have been moved and we can being to slowly focus on the beginning of the 2017 season.
Thursday, July 7, 2016
The Kevin Durant saga
We are not even a month removed from a thrilling seven game NBA Finals series, and it already seems like the distant past thanks to free agency and the draft. Former MVP Derrick Rose is on the move from Chicago to New York, Ben Simmons is on the way to Philadelphia, and Dwyane Wade, who seemed destined to stay in Miami forever, is the newest member of the Chicago Bulls. However, what was clearly the biggest move of the offseason was the decision of Kevin Durant to leave the Oklahoma City Thunder and sign with the Golden State Warriors.
Before I delve into this more deeply, let me give you some background on how I feel about superstar NBA players moving from team to team. Durant was a free agent. Emphasis on the word FREE. If you look up the term "free agent" on dictionary.com, it specifically references sports. It defines the term as "a professional athlete who is not under contract and is free to auction off his or her services." Free to auction off his or her services. Nowhere in the definition does it mention where the athlete grew up. Nowhere does it mention the team he was drafted by. Nowhere does it mention what the outside world deems right or wrong. He is free to auction off his services. So, as is the case with pretty much every NBA discussion in 2016, let's relate this to LeBron James.
When James left Cleveland in 2010 as a free agent and decided to sign with the Miami Heat, the outside world was highly critical of him doing so. And by outside world, I mean fans of all the teams that he did not sign with who would have loved him if he signed with their favorite team. In retrospect, I do believe that he made a mistake in broadcasting his announcement live on television, but in no other way do I find any fault in his choice to join the Heat. We were all watching the telecast, and if James decided to sign with a team other than Miami, the people in his new city would love him and never criticize him at all. We were all watching, and if you hold it against him that he did not sign with your team, then you are lying to yourself. I cannot prove that, but I stand 100% behind my belief that it is true.
So with that said, let's look at Kevin Durant's decision to sign (as a free agent, don't forget) with the Golden State Warriors. When it was first mentioned earlier in the year that Durant might even be considering signing with Golden State, I think most of us thought it was crazy and that it would never happen. The Warriors were coming off a championship season, and then proceeded to win an NBA record 73 games and reach the Finals again. Was it somehow possible that this team, seemingly at the peak of its power, actually bring on one of the best players in the game? I doubted it, but like many others, I was surprisingly wrong. Golden State has had two magical seasons in a row, and despite losing to the Cavaliers in the Finals a month ago, they just added Kevin Durant. It seems too crazy to actually be true. However, in this day and age, it is clearly a reality.
This is a video game move. It can't be true, can it? One of the all-time great teams has just somehow added one of the greatest players in the game, at the expense of one of its biggest rivals. This is not LeBron leaving Cleveland to join Miami. This is bigger than that. This is not Karl Malone and Gary Payton joining the Lakers to try to get a ring at the end of their careers. It is bigger than that. When the Boston Celtics put together their "big three" of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen, it was due to trades and not free agency. Shaquille O'Neal is one of the most dominant and beloved players to ever play the game and he played for seemingly half of the teams in the NBA. This is not any of that. Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors is unprecedented. No matter what your age is and no matter what your opinion of him now is, one thing we can all agree on is that we have never before seen anything like this.
When LeBron James left Cleveland and joined the Miami Heat, he did not do what Kevin Durant did. James' last series with the Cavaliers was a loss to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. That image of James walking off the court and taking off his jersey after losing to Boston will never be forgotten. It seemed like the perfect indication of what was to come. However you viewed it at the time, his decision to sign with the Heat after that season only enhanced the belief of many that he had in a way given up on the Cavaliers. The Miami Heat were a rival in the conference, but they had not just eliminated the Cavaliers. The Celtics had eliminated them, and that is why Durant's decision needs to be seen as more of a stunner than James' decision.
In the Western Conference Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder held a three games to one advantage over the Golden State Warriors. It seemed as if Durant and James were on the way to another collision course in the NBA Finals. However, a funny thing happened along the way, and the Thunder lost three consecutive games. The Warriors had eliminated them. Not only was the collapse worse than what happened with James against Boston, but what Durant did was, in my eyes, even more so.
Like I said before, as a free agent, Durant is free to play wherever he wants. Some people may believe that he owes it to the fans in Oklahoma City to stay there, but in all honestly, he does not. Plenty of NBA players would love to play their entire career with one team, but that does not always happen. Remember Hakeem Olajuwon playing for the Raptors? Remember Michael Jordan playing for the Wizards? I mentioned Karl Malone and Gary Payton before, and the same goes for them.
The difference between those guys and Durant is the point in their careers that they decided to change teams. Olajuwon, Malone, Jordan, and Payton all joined their second teams when they were past the prime of their careers. Durant is still in the prime of his career. In fact, Durant is not even 30 years old, and he probably has a whole lot left in the tank to remain a top player in the league. That is why this is unprecedented. Compare his move to James' all you want, but Durant left his original team to join the one team in the Western Conference that was better than his. The Thunder had a firm grasp on their series against Golden State, but they let it slip away. For that reason, and that reason alone, Durant has entered a category entirely of his own.
Many current and former players have criticized Durant for what he decided to do, and I cannot argue with anyone that feels what he did was in some ways "cheap" or "weak." I totally see their point of view. However, while I see where they are coming from, I am not totally on their side. Durant was free to do whatever he wanted, and what he wanted was to join the Warriors. The majority of fans around the league may not like it, but they will just have to deal with it. We will see once the games start next season how they react to him and the Warriors. If he gets booed every time he touches the ball it would not surprise me.
It was his choice to make, and he made it. He made the bed and now he has to lie in it. None of us know what will happen next season. The Cavaliers still seem fully able to repeat as champions, but Durant joining the Warriors has made Golden State the clear cut favorites to win it all. Durant may have been eliminated by the team he just joined, and he will have to face the public backlash that comes along with it. Obviously, he is willing to do just that.
While I cannot say for sure who will be on top of the NBA world a year from now, what I can say for sure is that the expectations of Kevin Durant have just arguably become higher than any expectations of any superstar in the history of the sport. 73 wins may be a reach, but we saw a few weeks ago that 73 wins means nothing if it is not punctuated by an NBA title. An NBA title is the only way that Durant can prove this move was worth it. Quite honestly, for his decision to be worth it, he will probably have to win multiple titles, but let's first focus on winning just one.
Was it "cheap" for Durant to join the Warriors? Possibly, yes it was. If you argued that it was definitely so, I would not have a problem with it. Even so, as a free agent, he was entitled to join any team he wanted to, and he chose Golden State. Burn his jersey in Oklahoma if you want, but you are doing nothing other than trying to get on TV via YouTube or Twitter. Think less of him if you want, but I am sure that your opinion does not matter to him.
At the end of the day, in the NBA as we currently know it, nothing matters more than championship rings. Bill Russell and his teammates set the standard with the Celtics years and years ago, and that is still the ultimate judge of any and all players. Jordan has six. Kobe has five. LeBron has three. Durant has zero. In the year 2046, long after Durant has retired, the scoring titles and All Star appearances will be nice, but he will not want to be mentioned with Karl Malone and Charles Barkley and Allen Iverson. All of those guys were spectacular in their day, but none of them reached the pinnacle of the sport.
After Harrison Barnes and Matthew Dellavedova and Steven Adams are forgotten names, Kevin Durant will be judged by how many titles he wins. Our children will not care what team he played for when he won those titles. They will not care who was hurt or suspended in any particular game of any particular series. When they type Kevin Durant into the search bar on Google, the first thing they will see is how many titles he won, and I think Durant has realized that.
Call him and his choice to join the Warriors whatever you want to call it. You are entitled to your opinion. My opinion is that he can play anywhere he chooses. However, my opinion is also that, as of today, he has chosen to take on more pressure than any superstar, in any sport, has ever known.
Anything less than an NBA championship in 2017 for Kevin Durant is a failure. Don't give me injuries. Don't give me bad calls. Don't give me tough defense or anything else. Give me a title, or you have not done what you should do. The Spurs and Clippers and Cavaliers will stand strong, but there are no more excuses for Kevin Durant. It is championship or bust.
Daily NBA Update: As I mentioned before, Dwyane Wade surprised the basketball world and signed with the Chicago Bulls yesterday. It is tough to picture Wade ever playing for a team other than the Miami Heat, but just as this piece has emphasized, the bottom line is winning. If Wade thinks his best chance to win is in Chicago, then more power to him.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: A tough loss last night has made it now nine losses in the last 11 games. Zack Greinke is headed to the disabled list and Shelby Miller is now 2-9. On the bright side, Paul Goldschmidt is once again headed to the All Star game, but if that is the only positive sign of the first half, then it is a problem. The team ends the first half with a three game set in San Francisco.
Daily Giants Update: We are now just over two months away from Week 1 in Dallas, and with the way the Diamondbacks have been playing thus far, 4:25 PM on September 11th cannot come fast enough.
Before I delve into this more deeply, let me give you some background on how I feel about superstar NBA players moving from team to team. Durant was a free agent. Emphasis on the word FREE. If you look up the term "free agent" on dictionary.com, it specifically references sports. It defines the term as "a professional athlete who is not under contract and is free to auction off his or her services." Free to auction off his or her services. Nowhere in the definition does it mention where the athlete grew up. Nowhere does it mention the team he was drafted by. Nowhere does it mention what the outside world deems right or wrong. He is free to auction off his services. So, as is the case with pretty much every NBA discussion in 2016, let's relate this to LeBron James.
When James left Cleveland in 2010 as a free agent and decided to sign with the Miami Heat, the outside world was highly critical of him doing so. And by outside world, I mean fans of all the teams that he did not sign with who would have loved him if he signed with their favorite team. In retrospect, I do believe that he made a mistake in broadcasting his announcement live on television, but in no other way do I find any fault in his choice to join the Heat. We were all watching the telecast, and if James decided to sign with a team other than Miami, the people in his new city would love him and never criticize him at all. We were all watching, and if you hold it against him that he did not sign with your team, then you are lying to yourself. I cannot prove that, but I stand 100% behind my belief that it is true.
So with that said, let's look at Kevin Durant's decision to sign (as a free agent, don't forget) with the Golden State Warriors. When it was first mentioned earlier in the year that Durant might even be considering signing with Golden State, I think most of us thought it was crazy and that it would never happen. The Warriors were coming off a championship season, and then proceeded to win an NBA record 73 games and reach the Finals again. Was it somehow possible that this team, seemingly at the peak of its power, actually bring on one of the best players in the game? I doubted it, but like many others, I was surprisingly wrong. Golden State has had two magical seasons in a row, and despite losing to the Cavaliers in the Finals a month ago, they just added Kevin Durant. It seems too crazy to actually be true. However, in this day and age, it is clearly a reality.
This is a video game move. It can't be true, can it? One of the all-time great teams has just somehow added one of the greatest players in the game, at the expense of one of its biggest rivals. This is not LeBron leaving Cleveland to join Miami. This is bigger than that. This is not Karl Malone and Gary Payton joining the Lakers to try to get a ring at the end of their careers. It is bigger than that. When the Boston Celtics put together their "big three" of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen, it was due to trades and not free agency. Shaquille O'Neal is one of the most dominant and beloved players to ever play the game and he played for seemingly half of the teams in the NBA. This is not any of that. Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors is unprecedented. No matter what your age is and no matter what your opinion of him now is, one thing we can all agree on is that we have never before seen anything like this.
When LeBron James left Cleveland and joined the Miami Heat, he did not do what Kevin Durant did. James' last series with the Cavaliers was a loss to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. That image of James walking off the court and taking off his jersey after losing to Boston will never be forgotten. It seemed like the perfect indication of what was to come. However you viewed it at the time, his decision to sign with the Heat after that season only enhanced the belief of many that he had in a way given up on the Cavaliers. The Miami Heat were a rival in the conference, but they had not just eliminated the Cavaliers. The Celtics had eliminated them, and that is why Durant's decision needs to be seen as more of a stunner than James' decision.
In the Western Conference Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder held a three games to one advantage over the Golden State Warriors. It seemed as if Durant and James were on the way to another collision course in the NBA Finals. However, a funny thing happened along the way, and the Thunder lost three consecutive games. The Warriors had eliminated them. Not only was the collapse worse than what happened with James against Boston, but what Durant did was, in my eyes, even more so.
Like I said before, as a free agent, Durant is free to play wherever he wants. Some people may believe that he owes it to the fans in Oklahoma City to stay there, but in all honestly, he does not. Plenty of NBA players would love to play their entire career with one team, but that does not always happen. Remember Hakeem Olajuwon playing for the Raptors? Remember Michael Jordan playing for the Wizards? I mentioned Karl Malone and Gary Payton before, and the same goes for them.
The difference between those guys and Durant is the point in their careers that they decided to change teams. Olajuwon, Malone, Jordan, and Payton all joined their second teams when they were past the prime of their careers. Durant is still in the prime of his career. In fact, Durant is not even 30 years old, and he probably has a whole lot left in the tank to remain a top player in the league. That is why this is unprecedented. Compare his move to James' all you want, but Durant left his original team to join the one team in the Western Conference that was better than his. The Thunder had a firm grasp on their series against Golden State, but they let it slip away. For that reason, and that reason alone, Durant has entered a category entirely of his own.
Many current and former players have criticized Durant for what he decided to do, and I cannot argue with anyone that feels what he did was in some ways "cheap" or "weak." I totally see their point of view. However, while I see where they are coming from, I am not totally on their side. Durant was free to do whatever he wanted, and what he wanted was to join the Warriors. The majority of fans around the league may not like it, but they will just have to deal with it. We will see once the games start next season how they react to him and the Warriors. If he gets booed every time he touches the ball it would not surprise me.
It was his choice to make, and he made it. He made the bed and now he has to lie in it. None of us know what will happen next season. The Cavaliers still seem fully able to repeat as champions, but Durant joining the Warriors has made Golden State the clear cut favorites to win it all. Durant may have been eliminated by the team he just joined, and he will have to face the public backlash that comes along with it. Obviously, he is willing to do just that.
While I cannot say for sure who will be on top of the NBA world a year from now, what I can say for sure is that the expectations of Kevin Durant have just arguably become higher than any expectations of any superstar in the history of the sport. 73 wins may be a reach, but we saw a few weeks ago that 73 wins means nothing if it is not punctuated by an NBA title. An NBA title is the only way that Durant can prove this move was worth it. Quite honestly, for his decision to be worth it, he will probably have to win multiple titles, but let's first focus on winning just one.
Was it "cheap" for Durant to join the Warriors? Possibly, yes it was. If you argued that it was definitely so, I would not have a problem with it. Even so, as a free agent, he was entitled to join any team he wanted to, and he chose Golden State. Burn his jersey in Oklahoma if you want, but you are doing nothing other than trying to get on TV via YouTube or Twitter. Think less of him if you want, but I am sure that your opinion does not matter to him.
At the end of the day, in the NBA as we currently know it, nothing matters more than championship rings. Bill Russell and his teammates set the standard with the Celtics years and years ago, and that is still the ultimate judge of any and all players. Jordan has six. Kobe has five. LeBron has three. Durant has zero. In the year 2046, long after Durant has retired, the scoring titles and All Star appearances will be nice, but he will not want to be mentioned with Karl Malone and Charles Barkley and Allen Iverson. All of those guys were spectacular in their day, but none of them reached the pinnacle of the sport.
After Harrison Barnes and Matthew Dellavedova and Steven Adams are forgotten names, Kevin Durant will be judged by how many titles he wins. Our children will not care what team he played for when he won those titles. They will not care who was hurt or suspended in any particular game of any particular series. When they type Kevin Durant into the search bar on Google, the first thing they will see is how many titles he won, and I think Durant has realized that.
Call him and his choice to join the Warriors whatever you want to call it. You are entitled to your opinion. My opinion is that he can play anywhere he chooses. However, my opinion is also that, as of today, he has chosen to take on more pressure than any superstar, in any sport, has ever known.
Anything less than an NBA championship in 2017 for Kevin Durant is a failure. Don't give me injuries. Don't give me bad calls. Don't give me tough defense or anything else. Give me a title, or you have not done what you should do. The Spurs and Clippers and Cavaliers will stand strong, but there are no more excuses for Kevin Durant. It is championship or bust.
Daily NBA Update: As I mentioned before, Dwyane Wade surprised the basketball world and signed with the Chicago Bulls yesterday. It is tough to picture Wade ever playing for a team other than the Miami Heat, but just as this piece has emphasized, the bottom line is winning. If Wade thinks his best chance to win is in Chicago, then more power to him.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: A tough loss last night has made it now nine losses in the last 11 games. Zack Greinke is headed to the disabled list and Shelby Miller is now 2-9. On the bright side, Paul Goldschmidt is once again headed to the All Star game, but if that is the only positive sign of the first half, then it is a problem. The team ends the first half with a three game set in San Francisco.
Daily Giants Update: We are now just over two months away from Week 1 in Dallas, and with the way the Diamondbacks have been playing thus far, 4:25 PM on September 11th cannot come fast enough.
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