The Monday Night game last evening featured two NFC teams, so to make my 11 week recap equal all-around, I'll do the NFC today. As I did yesterday with the AFC, I'll start in the east and then head west...
NFC East
Giants (7-4) - As has been the case in recent years, the Giants are the prime example of how long an NFL season really is. There are ups and downs along the way for all 32 teams, but it always seems like the ups and downs of the Giants are far more extreme than most teams. The Giants have put in dominating efforts multiple times, including blowout victories over two of the NFL's best teams, the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers. However, they have also been blown out by the Bengals, lost to what we now know is a bad Eagles team, and looked terrible in a loss at home against the Steelers.
With all of that being said, the schedule has been very tough, and the Giants hold a commanding lead in the division. However, the schedule gets no easier, as the Giants still have to play the Redskins once more, as well as the Saints, Falcons, Ravens, and Eagles. It is sometimes impossible to predict how this team will play from week to week, but I think that anything less than 10-6 should be considered a disappointment here, and the fan in me still believes that anything less than a Super Bowl should be considered a disappointment at this point as well.
Redskins (5-6) - Now here is a team that will be very interesting to watch not only for the remainder of 2012, but for the near future as well. Robert Griffin III has already, in my eyes, surpassed expectations as a rookie quarterback. He has been sensational for much of the year. He put on a spectacular performance at Giants Stadium back in October, and it took another fourth quarter miracle from our two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback to beat Washington. A lot of credit should be given to the coaching staff of the Redskins, as they have done what I believe only the best coaches in sports can do. Instead of forcing Griffin to fit into their previous system, they have instead built a system that plays to his strengths and it has paid off so far.
Although they are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture right now, they are only one game out of the final spot. They are battling a lot of teams for that final position though, and I would be very surprised if they were able to reach the postseason. I think 8-8 should be a realistic goal for Washington, and they are definitely trending upwards with what appears to be a franchise quarterback finally on their roster.
Cowboys (5-6) - Different year, same problems in Dallas. The Cowboys are extremely unpredictable from week to week, yet they are extremely predictable in terms of how their final record will look. Once again, they have had great wins and horrible losses. Once again, they have had guys make great plays, and the same guys also make terrible mistakes. Once again, the coach is on the hot seat, the owner is lurking far too close than he should be, and Dallas is mediocre.
I am obviously not going to write Dallas off yet, but they have an uphill climb in front of them, for a multitude of reasons, to make the postseason. The schedule does not do them many favors either, as they still have to play the Saints, Steelers, Redskins, and Bengals. At best, I say they get to 9-7 and contend for the final playoff spot. Realistically though, I think that 8-8 is more likely.
Eagles (3-8) - 2012 will likely go down as a season in which the Philadelphia Eagles officially hit rock bottom. The Eagles fell far below expectations last season, and going into 2012, it seemed like the team, as currently constructed, would have a second chance. Well, the Eagles have taken that chance and failed miserably in nearly every way. Offense, defense, coaching, management...each part of the organization can share the blame here. Their loss at home against the Panthers last night not only dropped them another game back in the division, it actually dropped them into dead last in the entire NFC, something I doubt even the most ardent Eagles hater could have predicted.
It is pretty much a guarantee at this point that we will see wholesale changes in Philadelphia after this season, and it is likely that they will begin with the exit of the head coach and starting quarterback. Injuries have really hurt the offensive line, but the players they have up front now have just not been good at all. Somehow, the defense has probably been just as bad, if not worse, than the offensive line, and we will probably see a lot of new names on defense in 2013 as well.
All five of the Eagles' final games are against teams with some sort of playoff aspirations, so it would not surprise me at all to see them lose all five of them. However, they still get the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins once each, and division games (especially in the NFC East) are always unpredictable, so I will say that the Eagles will win at least one of them. If they can beat either Cincinnati or Tampa Bay and finish at 5-12, I think that is the best they can hope for. Do not get me wrong though, no matter what happens the rest of the way, this has been a pathetic season for the Eagles.
NFC North
Bears (8-3) - Chicago is another interesting team. Their 8-3 record seems to reflect exactly where they should be if you look at their schedule, but that might also be the problem. The three best teams that the Bears have played (Green Bay, San Francisco, and Houston) have all resulted in losses. Yes, Jay Cutler was injured for the Houston and San Francisco games, but Chicago does not really have any impressive wins.
It seems like the same few problems that have plagued the Bears in recent years might be cropping up again as well. Matt Forte and Jay Cutler can never seem to get through an entire season without getting hurt, and the offensive line is still below-average.
The schedule is not too tough on paper the rest of the way, but as I have said before, they still have three divisional games to go, and those are never easy. I think 11-5 is a realistic goal for the Bears, and anything better than that will probably mean a first-round bye in the playoffs. What they do once they get there will be the true test though.
Packers (7-4) - Green Bay was the Super Bowl pick of a lot of prognosticators coming into 2012, and this is definitely a legitimate contender. However, to my extreme delight, the Packers came crashing down into reality after a five-game winning streak this past Sunday in Giants Stadium. Green Bay has quality wins against Chicago and New Orleans, as well as a thumping of the Texans in Houston to their credit.
However, there have been points of the year (last week against the Giants, and in a Week 3 "loss" against the Seahawks), when we have seen the offensive line look very, very bad. I think that, coupled with the fact that the running game in Green Bay is pretty much non-existent, will come back to haunt the Packers down the road. I am willing to forgive a poor defensive showing against the Giants due to the fact that the unit was crippled by injuries, but even at full strength, this is not exactly a juggernaut defense.
The schedule the rest of the way is conquerable, and the Week 15 showdown in Chicago might end up deciding the NFC North. I think 11-5 is possible, but 10-6 is more likely. This is a playoff team, but there have been some parts of this team that have been exposed at different points this year, and I think it will be tough for Green Bay to win more than one playoff game.
Vikings (6-5) - This is probably the least appreciated team in the NFL with a record above .500. Their attack may not be spectacular, but with Adrian Peterson having another monster year, Minnesota will always have a great running game. I'm still not sold that Christian Ponder is good enough to lead a team to the postseason at this point though, and I am not the only person who thinks that way.
Like the rest of the NFC North, the schedule outside of the division has not been too tough. The Vikings did beat the 49ers in Week 3, and their only loss to a below .500 team was against the Redskins, who I would consider possibly the best below .500 team in the NFL. However, if there were one part of Minnesota's schedule to be worried about, it would be these final five games. Green Bay twice, Chicago, St. Louis, and Houston. That could easily be four losses.
Minnesota has had a pretty good year up until now, but I just don't believe that they can hang around all year, especially with a brutal schedule awaiting them. At this point, I think the best that Minnesota can hope for is 8-8, with 7-9 probably being a more realistic expectation.
Lions (4-7) - After finally reaching the postseason in 2011, this has been a very disappointing year in Detroit. Matthew Stafford had an enormous 2011, and although he is still putting up pretty nice numbers so far in 2012, the passing game has just not been as potent as it was a year ago. Their four victories have come against opponents with a combined record of 15-29-1, and while they have not been blown out by anyone, it has just been an underwhelming season thus far for the Lions.
The schedule the rest of the way is tough, as they still have to face the Bears, Packers, Falcons, and Colts. They still have a lot of young and talented players on offense, but at this point, I think it is pretty much a lost season. If the Lions can get to 6-10 then they should be happy.
NFC South
Falcons (10-1) - I learned my lesson with this team a few years back. Despite being tied with the Texans for the best record in the NFL, the regular season no longer has any significance to how the Atlanta Falcons should be judged. At this point, it is expected of them to reach the playoffs. It is what they do in the playoffs that needs to be the true barometer of this team.
The Falcons have been scrutinized and praised for numerous different reasons this year, but I have reached the point where I do not care. 10-1 is 10-1. That is great. They have at least three wins left in them, if not more. That means at worst Atlanta should be 13-3, and sitting pretty with a first round bye. No matter the regular season record, the seed, or where they play in the playoffs, they need to show me they can win in the postseason. There is no time like the present, Atlanta. Get it done now.
Buccaneers (6-5) - The Bucs have been another team that has been a pleasant surprise. After a very good 2010, the Bucs came nowhere close to expectations in 2011, and Greg Schiano was brought in to lead the team in 2012. I had doubts about whether or not he could succeed as an NFL head coach, but he has done a very good job up to this point.
Josh Freeman has bounced back to have a very nice year up until this point, and rookie running back Doug Martin has been spectacular. Despite the presence of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, Martin deserves consideration for Rookie of the Year, because he has been brilliant. The offseason acquisition of Vincent Jackson has really helped the entire offense as well.
Tampa Bay has not lost to any team with a record worse than 5-6. They have won the games they "should have" won based upon their record, and they have been competitive in their losses as well. However, they still have road games remaining against the Broncos, Saints, and Falcons, and those will all be extremely tough. While Tampa Bay is in position to have a shot at the playoffs, it will be tough to do so with those three games on the schedule. If they can pull out a win in any of those games though, I think 9-7 with a shot at the final playoff spot is possible. Like I said though, doing so will be by no means any easy task.
Saints (5-6) - We knew coming into the season that the Saints would be in for an interesting year, and they have given us exactly that. After an 0-4 start that included losses to the Panthers and Chiefs (who are a combined 4-18 in 2012), it looked like the season was over before we even got to October. All of the positives were being overlooked, and all of the negatives were being highlighted. However, New Orleans has been able to go 5-2 since then, and they find themselves with a legitimate chance to make the postseason.
I have given up trying to understand why some of the Saints' players suspended in the bounty scandal are actually on the field because the appeals processes are simply tiring at this point to try to comprehend. What I do know is the same thing we have known about the New Orleans Saints for the last few years. They can score a lot of points. With that great offense, they will always have a chance, but the schedule the rest of the way for the Saints is murderous.
Their next four games are with the Falcons, Giants, Bucs, and Cowboys, all four of which will be fighting for various spots in the playoffs. That means the Saints will get no favors from the competition. This team still has a shot, but I think that 0-4 early season hole they dug might just end up being too much to overcome.
If they can reach 9-7, then they will probably deserve a playoff berth. However, I just think that schedule is too tough, and 8-8, or even 7-9 are more likely scenarios. Either way, this will be a fun team to watch down the stretch.
Panthers (3-8) - Carolina has been a disappointment this year in more than one way. After his brilliant rookie season, Cam Newton has embodied the term "sophomore slump." Whether it be his on-field play or his off-field demeanor, Newton has been criticized almost non-stop throughout the season. Steve Smith has come nowhere close to matching his production from last season, the backfield of Williams and Stewart that was once near the top of the league in terms of talented duos has now just become two average backs, and many of their best players have once again fallen victim to the injury bug.
Carolina's win last night kept them out of the basement of the NFC, and they still have the Chiefs and Raiders on their schedule, so all of these games may actually help decide which team gets the first pick in next year's draft. Maybe last night's game can propel the Panthers to win at least three of their five remaining games, but I doubt it. I think 5-11 is realistic here, and pretty much everyone not named Cam Newton should be on notice that there will likely be a lot of changes in the offseason.
NFC West
49ers (8-2-1) - San Francisco is a team that has made a lot more headlines off the field recently than most first place teams would probably like. The 49ers are now in the midst of a quarterback controversy, and how this all plays out could play not only a big role in deciding who wins the NFC, but it could also play a big role in deciding who wins the Super Bowl.
The defense is solid once again, and the offense is both better and deeper at the skill positions than it was last year. The problem is the quarterback position. There are things to like about both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, and there are things to question about both of them as well. What I do know for certain is that Jim Harbaugh needs to settle on one or the other soon, or else this quandary (brought on completely by Harbaugh) could be the downfall of a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
The 49ers will play the Patriots on December 16th, and they also go to Seattle the following week. However, I think they are capable of winning at least one of those games, and they should win the other three games left on their schedule. That would make 12-3-1 a realistic goal, and that would likely be good enough to challenge for a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
It's Super Bowl or bust for the 49ers, but with a quarterback controversy that doesn't seem to be close to being solved right now, this year could end up in disappointing fashion for the 49ers. We will have to wait and see.
Seahawks (6-5) - Seattle seems to have fallen off the radar a bit, but in my eyes, I think this is still the team to beat for the final playoff spot in the NFC. That does come with a huge asterisk though. Seattle has one of the best, if not the best, secondaries in the NFL, and it was just announced that both of their starting cornerbacks (Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman) are facing possible four game suspensions for substance abuse policy infractions. If Browner and Sherman can appeal their suspensions and do not miss any time, I think Seattle can still make the playoffs. However, if both of them miss the next four games, it will be extremely tough for Seattle to make up for the loss of them both.
At full strength, I see at least three more wins on the schedule for the Seahawks. Without those two players though, I cannot say I see that. 9-7 will probably be good enough for the sixth spot in the NFC, and the fact that Seattle has already beaten both the Cowboys and the Vikings (both of whom will likely be battling for that final spot as well) really helps. If they do make the playoffs though, I doubt they will be able to win any games, but it will be a great step in the right direction for the franchise. However, without Sherman and Browner, it will probably be a struggle to reach the postseason.
Rams (4-6-1) - The Rams have been the same story now for the past few years. They just simply are not good enough to compete with the top dogs in the NFC. While they have beaten pretty good teams like the Seahawks and Redskins, they have also lost to bad teams like the Jets and Dolphins, and they were run off the field by the Patriots (although they are not the first team that has suffered such a fate).
Sam Bradford seems to be just mediocre as a quarterback, Steven Jackson is still good, but opponents really do not have to worry about much else besides him, and Danny Amendola can be excellent at times, but gets injured far too much. If nothing else, it seems like the Rams drafted pretty well, as they have gotten a lot of nice production out of rookies like Daryl Richardson, Janoris Jenkins, and Greg Zuerlein.
I look at the schedule and really see only two more wins at best, so I think 6-9-1 should be considered a success, but it will honestly likely be a stretch for St. Louis to even reach that mark.
Cardinals (4-7) - Arizona came flying out of the gate to start the year. After beating a good Seattle team in Week 1, they went into New England and pulled off a shocking win over the Patriots. They followed that game up with two more wins and stood at 4-0. Since then? Well, let's just say it has not gone nearly as well. The Cardinals have not won a game in two months, and find themselves in the midst of a seven game losing streak, and without a quarterback.
As of today, the Cardinals are starting rookie Ryan Lindley, their third different quarterback of the season. Kevin Kolb has proven himself to be overpaid, John Skelton is just not very good, and I give the Cardinals credit for throwing Lindley into the fire at this point in the year. He is a rookie, but they might as well see what he's got because this has turned into a lost season.
The Cardinals still have to go to Seattle and San Francisco, as well as play the Bears. That is probably three guaranteed losses. Their other two games are with the Jets and Lions, so I'll say that they are good enough to win one of those (which honestly might be giving Arizona too much credit). At best, the Cardinals probably go 5-11, and I really only say that because I cannot honestly believe that an NFL team can lose 12 consecutive games after starting the year 4-0.
With Lindley in there as the starting quarterback, it is clear that I am not the only person who thinks it is time for the Cardinals to look toward moving on into the future without both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton.
So that's all for my eleven week NFL season recap. One week from today, I will probably want to change all of my picks because in reality, the real NFL season is just getting started. We have learned the truth about some teams, but we also have a whole lot more to learn before this season comes to a close.
No comments:
Post a Comment