Since today is Monday and I've been reading and hearing about nothing but football all day, I thought that this would be a good time to take a look back at the first 11 weeks of the NFL season. One week from today, we will officially be 3/4 of the way through the year, so at this point of any NFL regular season we always know two things. The first? We have learned a lot over the three months of the season we have watched. The second? We know next to nothing about what will happen from here on out.
Since games are only played once each week, there is always more than enough time in between games to analyze and critique each and every part of each and every team. There is a lot we know, but there is also still a long way to go. I'll go through each team, give a short take on how I feel about them, and then give you my opinion about how I think the rest of their season will go. I'll start in the AFC East.
Patriots (8-3) - As usual, New England is easily the best team in the AFC East. The Pats have relied a lot more on the running game this year than they have over the past few years. Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen have combined to form a nice combination in the backfield and it has provided a tremendous boost because many of Tom Brady's targets in the passing game have been in and out of the lineup due to injuries.
With a three game lead, the Patriots should easily win this division. We will, however, get two very interesting matchups in mid-December, as New England still has to play Houston and San Francisco. This should be a team that challenges for at least a bye in the first round of the playoffs, if not the top seed overall in the AFC.
Dolphins (5-6) - As their 5-6 record would demonstrate, the Dolphins have been up and down this year. Their drafting of Ryan Tannehill was highly scrutinized, and while he has definitely suffered some rookie bumps and bruises along the way, he has also shown some good flashes as well (431 yards in Week 4). There are some nice pieces, but there are still a lot of missing pieces as well. They still have to play New England twice and go to San Francisco though, so I think the Dolphins should consider themselves lucky to get to 8-8.
Bills (4-7) - I thought that Buffalo would be able to finish second in this division before the season started, and that might still happen. However, it may happen more so because the AFC East is not as good from top to bottom as I thought it could be than the Bills actually putting together a good year.
Fred Jackson seems like he is getting closer and closer to one of those guys who is good when he is healthy, but can never stay healthy for the majority of the year. C.J. Spiller is great if he can split carries with another back, but I'm not convinced that he can be the bell cow back that Buffalo needs since Jackson seems to always be hurt.
The defense has not been good, as they have surrendered 48, 52, 45, 35, and 37 points in five of their losses. Four of Buffalo's final five games will be at home though, and only one of those games is against a team with any truly realistic shot at making the playoffs (Seattle), so I think 8-8 is still possible here.
Jets (4-7) - There isn't really much to say here that hasn't already been said. Their Thanksgiving day loss against the Patriots was a complete disaster and included one of the most comically bad plays that I have ever seen when Mark Sanchez ran into the backside of his own offensive lineman, fumbled the ball, and the Patriots ran it back for a touchdown.
The loss of Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes obviously have been too much to overcome, but this just simply is not a good football team. There are huge questions at the quarterback and running back positions (not exactly good positions to have questions about), and unless your name is Nick Mangold or Darrelle Revis, you need to be concerned about your job security here (and that includes the coaching staff and the management as well).
AFC North
Ravens (9-2) - This is a really interesting team. It seems like most of the time you hear about the Ravens, it is something about what they cannot do. They lost two of their best defensive players to injury, so they can't stop anyone. Their quarterback is not good enough to win the big games. Many of the key players on their roster are too old. However, here we are, with five games to go, and the Ravens are 9-2 and own the second best record in the AFC.
So, with that said, I'll give you more reasons to doubt Baltimore. They have really had only one win against a playoff caliber team (31-30 over New England in Week 3). The Ravens killed the Bengals in Week 1 and also beat the Cowboys in Week 6, but those teams are still both not playoff teams as of today. The Ravens beat the Steelers eight days ago, but it was a Steelers team that was clearly not at full strength, as they were being led by an injured Byron Leftwich.
The final five games of the season for the Ravens will all be tough, as they will face Pittsburgh again, Washington, Denver, the Giants, and Cincinnati. Ray Lewis also might be able to return in late December, and if that happens, it will provide an enormous boost to not only the defense, but the entire team.
You cannot argue with 9-2. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the AFC. However, we will learn a lot about them over the next five weeks. I honestly say that I don't believe they will be able to hold on to one of the top two spots in the conference, but this should be a team that can win at least one playoff game, and it wouldn't surprise me if they win more. Super Bowl? Possibly, but at this point I can't say that I think Baltimore will still be playing in February.
Steelers (6-5) - Now this is a team that we have learned a ton about over the past two weeks. Going into their Week 11 matchup with Baltimore, the Steelers were sitting pretty at 6-3 and seemingly poised to make the playoffs. However, when Ben Roethlisberger went down with a shoulder injury, we really saw how much he meant to this team. Byron Leftwich started in Week 11, and Charlie Batch started in Week 12 (thanks to a Leftwich injury), and Pittsburgh now sits at 6-5 with a ton of question marks surrounding them.
An absolutely dreadful performance against the Browns yesterday in which the Steelers turned the ball over eight times (EIGHT!) and Charlie Batch demonstrated why he is no longer suited to start at quarterback in the NFL, means that Pittsburgh now has a fight on its hands to simply get into the playoffs.
There is no doubting Ben Roethlisberger's toughness, but there still is doubt as to whether he will physically be able to return soon enough to save the Steelers from their new found quarterback conundrum. With him at at least 75% health, the Steelers can at least make the playoffs, although I doubt they will be able to win a game once they get there. Without him, I think Pittsburgh is in serious trouble.
I would be very surprised to see this team overtake Baltimore in the division, and I think that a Wild Card berth is the best they can hope for.
Bengals (6-5) - After a 3-5 start, it seemed like most people (myself included) had written off Cincinnati. However, after three consecutive wins (one that included a pounding of my New York Giants), the Bengals find themselves in the middle of a playoff chase with a legitimate shot at the postseason. With their last three wins being by a combined 64 points, the Bengals are now serious contenders for the playoffs. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis has run well over the past two games, and A.J. Green is now unquestionably one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Cincinnati gets probably the three most schizophrenic teams in the NFL over the next three weeks in San Diego, Dallas, and Philadelphia, so there is no telling what will happen over that stretch. Following that, they face division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Depending on whether or not those teams feel like showing up or whether or not they are fully healthy might define the Bengals' season. I think 10-6 is a stretch here, but 9-7 is definitely possible, and in what seems to be an AFC that is weaker than normal, the Bengals should have a shot at a Wild Card berth.
Browns (3-8) - As expected, Cleveland is bringing up the rear in this division. It has been a while since the Browns have competed for a spot in the postseason, and they will not be doing so in 2012. It is tough to put a positive spin on the Browns' season, but I will try to do just that. I saw them in person at Giants Stadium in Week 5, and they rolled to an early 14-0 lead but just couldn't keep up with the Giants and ended up losing by two touchdowns. However, that was their biggest loss of the year, and they have not lost any of their other games by more than 10 points.
Cleveland seems to have definitely found its number one running back in Trent Richardson, and while Brandon Weeden may not be spectacular, I think that he could at least be good enough to complement an offense that is based upon Richardson's running.
I think if they can win two of their last five games to finish at 5-11, they should be happy. This team will honestly probably not be seriously competitive for at least a few more years, but the optimist in me says that they might at least be trending a bit upwards (a bit).
AFC South
Texans (10-1) - 11 games, 10 wins. Victories over Denver and Chicago, and a stomping of Baltimore. That should speak for itself, right? Well, probably. But not certainly. There are a whole lot of reasons to like this team, and only a few reasons to doubt them. They have stars on both sides of the ball. They won a playoff game last season with their third string quarterback, and thus far, their starting quarterback has been healthy. They have one of the best running backs in the league. They have one of the best (when healthy) wide receivers in the league. They have a possible Defensive MVP candidate on their defensive line.
The Texans have a whole lot of things going for them right now. I'm extremely confident that Houston can win the AFC South, and I believe that they can make serious noise in the postseason. The Packers destroyed them in Week 6 on a Sunday night, but I am willing to overlook that as an outlier because of the way that they have played in every game other than that one.
The final five games feature one at New England (which should be a great game to see), as well as two with the Colts. Aside from that, they get Tennessee and Minnesota. If I am on the Texans, I am obviously shooting for 5-0 over the final five games, but I'll say that they should go 4-1. At worst they go 2-3, but I highly doubt that. That means that Houston could possibly go 14-2 and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. We saw them play the Bangals last year at home in the playoffs, and the crowd played a huge role in helping Houston win that game. If they get every playoff game at home this year, it is Super Bowl or bust for this team. If not, I think that they are still equipped to make a run to a championship.
This is no doubt one of the best teams in the NFL right now. However, they have a roster full of unproven postseason performers so that is really my only concern here. If there is one team poised to make an unprecedented run (in terms of the history of the franchise) to the Super Bowl, it is this team. I will not be fully convinced until January, but the Texans are no doubt legitimate Super Bowl contenders right now.
Colts (7-4) - In my eyes, the Indianapolis Colts have been by far the most pleasant surprise in the NFL so far this season. After a terrible 2011 season, the Colts drafted Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in the draft and the re-building process was underway. However, it seems like someone forgot to tell the Colts that a re-building process was supposed to be measured in years and not weeks. After a bit of a rough start, the Colts now own the first Wild Card spot in the AFC, and have their postseason destiny in their own hands.
First, I have to give credit to the front office of the Colts. As tough as it must have been to let a legend like Peyton Manning go, I still firmly believe that the team made the right decision by doing so. Andrew Luck was not only projected to be a standout quarterback, but he has proven just as much through 11 games so far this year. There have obviously been rookie bumps and bruises along the way, but there have been more signature moments than bumps and bruises, and when Peyton Manning is making his Hall of Fame induction speech, the Colts will be glad that they still have Luck running their offense. As if that decision wasn't enough, rookies like Dwayne Allen, T.Y. Hilton, and Vick Ballard have played big roles in the team's success as well.
The signature win of the year was clearly in Week 5 over the Green Bay Packers when Luck led the team down the field and hit Reggie Wayne for the winning touchdown, but it seems like Chuck Pagano's fight against leukemia has propelled this team to its winning ways all season. In my eyes, Indianapolis has already far surpassed expectations in 2012. At this point, this is just one of those dream seasons that are few and far between. The Colts are in great position to make the playoffs, and as long as they aren't playing the Giants, then I'm cheering for the Colts.
Titans (4-7) - Tennessee has been up and down a bunch this year, but the down has been more prevalent than the up, and that is reflected in their 4-7 record. The Titans won a shootout against the Lions in overtime and beat the Steelers, but they were also demolished by the Patriots, Bears, and Texans. In the end, it simply comes down to the Titans just not really having enough talent to beat the better teams on their schedule.
There are a few pieces here on both offense and defense, but in the end, Tennessee just does not have enough to match up with any contending teams in the AFC. If they can win three more games from here on out, I think they should consider that a success. For now though, I'll go with 6-10 for the Titans.
Jaguars (2-9) - To be truthful, there really is just not enough talent here. Jacksonville has some good players, but throughout the majority of the roster, they just do not match up with the rest of their schedule, let alone the rest of the AFC. They have gone back and forth between Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at the quarterback position, and it's obvious that neither of them is the long term answer at the position. Maurice Jones-Drew led the NFL in rushing in 2011, but he has missed much of this season, and they have been unable to find a quality replacement for him. Their number one draft pick, wide receiver Justin Blackmon, was extremely quiet throughout most of the beginning of the season, but he has come on in the past few games and finally shown what most of us thought he was capable of doing.
Without a true number one quarterback though, the Jaguars have no shot at any kind of success in the near future. This year's incoming quarterback draft class is not very impressive (at least in my eyes) either, so by the time Jacksonville might have a legitimate shot to get a franchise QB, their franchise running back might be done. I don't see much success in the future of this team, and I think that if they are able to reach 4-12, then it should be considered a "success."
AFC West
Broncos (8-3) - Now here we have an incredibly interesting, and potentially lethal, team. The Broncos made the biggest offseason splash by signing future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, but due somewhat in part to a murderous early season schedule, they were not considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. However, now that Denver has made it through that tough schedule at 8-3, it is time to start looking at them as a serious threat to win it all.
First off, the AFC West has been a horrible disappointment in terms of depth in the division. The Chargers stink, and they are the best of the rest. So that means that Denver is on track to easily win the division, and they should be thinking about a first round bye at this point.
One of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game has obviously provided this team with a huge boost, and although their "skill" position players may not all be household names, Peyton Manning has done a great job of helping them reach their potentials. The Broncos did lose to the Patriots, Texans, and Falcons (three surefire playoff teams), but I think that thanks in part to their easier schedule, and also in part to their ability to continue to gel as a team, Denver has to be considered as a legitimate contender to win the AFC.
Every game from here on out could be a win, and I think they should consider anything less than 12-4 a disappointment. It is obviously not a given, but if this team fails to win at least one playoff game, then this season should be considered a disappointment. If they won the Super Bowl, let me say it right now, I would not be surprised.
Chargers (4-7) - Ok, I am officially done with San Diego. They are the Dallas Cowboys of the AFC (and that is not a compliment), but somehow always seem to be even worse than that. I am looking at my USA Today 2012 NFL preview magazine right now, and I wish I had the foresight that the writers of that magazine had. They predicted that the Chargers would be last in the AFC West. While it is highly unlikely that they will finish last, the Chargers have already proven that the only thing that is true about them is the fact that they will never meet expectations.
Despite a talented roster and a highly respected offensive-minded coach (sound familiar, Dallas fans?), this is just not a good team. There are stars and there are duds. There are injuries. There are inconsistencies. Whatever it takes to derail a team is what has happened year after year in San Diego.
Yesterday, the Chargers had the Baltimore Ravens in the palm of their hands. They had a 13-10 lead with the Ravens facing a 4th & 29, yet somehow, Baltimore turned that into a first down and eventually, an overtime victory. Now, credit is due where credit is deserved, and Ray Rice made a spectacular play, gave a spectacular effort, and got spectacular help (although Anquan Boldin may have...possibly...PROBABLY...gotten away with a block in the back), but the moral of the story is that the Chargers simply do not deserve to be considered a contender.
They have talented players at the positions you need to have talented players, but the way this team is constructed, this just isn't going to work. At this point, if I were (general manager) A.J. Smith, I would honestly consider trading Philip Rivers, because the way things have gone since he has been drafted have led me to believe that not only does San Diego need a new quarterback, but it needs an entire new regime to take charge of a franchise in flux.
Raiders (3-8) - The 2012 Oakland Raiders are pretty much exactly what most people probably expected. They simply are just not good enough to challenge for a spot in the playoffs. Whether it is because the offense cannot stay healthy or just cannot score enough points, or because the defense just is not very good, the Raiders are just not a good team.
Their signature win of the season was in Week 3 against the Steelers, but their schedule has been marked by far more blowout losses than signature wins. Over the past four games, the Raiders have given up 42, 55, 38, and 34 points, and not surprisingly, all four of those games have been losses.
Carson Palmer has put up nice numbers, but that is partly due to the fact that the Raiders constantly find themselves involved in shootout games in which defense is optional by either team. Darren McFadden is good when he is healthy, but never seems to be fully healthy, and the defense is just not very good. The final five games are not too tough, but since we are talking about a below-average team like the Raiders here, I would have to say that 5-11 is the best that they can hope for.
Chiefs (1-10) - This is a team that I must say I expected far too much of (although if you look at the preseason predictions of most, I am not the only one guilty of that). I thought that the quarterback position in Kansas City was only a small deterrent to a team that seemed to have a good amount of talent throughout the roster, but boy, was I wrong there.
The quarterback position has been a complete disaster for the Chiefs. Kansas City is competing with the Jets and the Cardinals right now for the worst quarterback situation in the entire NFL. Matt Cassel has proven that his good year with the Patriots was obviously a product of New England's system, and not a product of his own talent. Due to his poor play, Chiefs fans have clamored for Brady Quinn, and if a fan base is clamoring for Brady Quinn to start, then you know that the quarterback situation must be dire.
The offensive struggles have marred the Chiefs, as their defense has honestly not been egregiously bad in recent weeks, but they have only mustered one touchdown in the past three games. I don't care how well you play defense, if you cannot score more than seven points on offense, you are not going to win NFL games. At this point, the Chiefs need to be hoping that they get a top five draft pick and that whoever they pick ends up being a superstar.
That's all for my AFC 3/4 season preview. Just to re-iterate my feelings, I have to say that the current playoff seedings should be close to how we actually finish in January. If Houston does not get a first-round bye, then I will be shocked, and it should be between Baltimore and New England (although I give the edge right now to the Patriots), for the #2 seed. Denver and the loser of that battle for #2 seem to be in the clear, and despite the problems that the Steelers face, I still think that they are a playoff team.
The Colts are in good shape as far as won-loss record goes, but they are still less proven than Pittsburgh. If anyone has a chance to crash this playoff party, it is the Cincinnati Bengals, but I still think that is a long shot.
As of right now, I have to say that I think the Texans, Patriots, and Broncos are legitimate Super Bowl contenders coming out of the AFC, but as I said before, we still have a whole lot to learn over the next five weeks.
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