2012 marks the 60th anniversary of the death of George Santayana. Who is George Santayana? He is a Spanish philosopher known for coining the phrase, "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." And what exactly does that have to do with the NFL Draft? More than you could imagine, actually.
Ryan Leaf, who is often the first name that comes to mind when you think of the biggest busts in NFL Draft history, is in the news again around draft time. And like pretty much every time he has been in the news since he was drafted in April of 1998, it's not a story you should read if you want to brighten your day. Leaf is currently sitting in a jail cell in Montana with four felony charges awaiting him when he is released in just under a month. Earlier this month, Leaf was arrested for breaking into the home of a friend and stealing prescription medication. After being arrested and bailed out, he was arrested again for burglarizing another home and stealing more painkillers, along with, this time, a drill. He must have figured it would be smarter to drill a hole in the wall and hide the pills this time. Not surprisingly though, his plan was unsuccessful, and he sits in a cell in Montana to prove that point.
The point to be made from all of this is the historical lessons that we have learned from the NFL Draft. It seems as though it is pretty much inevitable that the first two picks in the 2012 Draft will be Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, both quarterbacks. Both are projected to be franchise quarterbacks, and both had great college careers. Griffin even has a Heisman Trophy to prove it.
There have been plenty of quarterbacks taken #1 or #2 overall in past drafts, but only four times since 1971 have quarterbacks been taken with both the first and second picks. In 1999, it was Tim Couch and Donovan McNabb. The year before that was Peyton Manning and our favorite burglar (second favorite maybe, after the Hamburglar) Ryan Leaf. In 1993 it was Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer. Finally, in 1971, it was Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning. Presumably in 2012, it will be Luck and Griffin.
Bledsoe, McNabb, and Peyton Manning went on to have very good NFL careers, and in Manning's case, what will certainly be a Hall of Fame career when he retires. Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, and Rick Mirer were terrible, and since 1993, the teams that selected those players (Cleveland, San Diego, and Seattle) have not exactly been juggernauts. 1971 is the outlier, as Archie Manning was a good quarterback for many years on a terrible New Orleans Saints team, and Plunkett won two Super Bowls with the Raiders. So just looking at those numbers, the history of #1 and #2 overall QB's being drafted in the same year is not very good.
That however, is only half of the picture. In that same time, from 1971-2012, there have been 18 QB's that have won the Heisman Trophy. Those 18 QB's are Pat Sullivan, Doug Flutie, Vinny Testaverde, Andre Ware, Ty Detmer, Gino Toretta, Charlie Ward, Danny Wuerffel, Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, Carson Palmer, Jason White, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Griffin. That is 10 unsuccessful QB's (many of which were complete busts), two QB's who are really more known for being a fairy tale phenomenon than an actual NFL quarterback (Flutie and Tebow), two solid, if unspectacular quarterbacks (Testaverde and Palmer), two that the jury is still out on (although Bradford is trending down and Newton is trending up), one point guard for the New York Knicks, and Griffin.
So that means that in the past 41 years, selecting a quarterback with the #1 and #2 overall picks has worked out for everyone involved a total of one time. Now maybe a situation like this will arise again in 2053 and we will have a once every 41 year occurrence, but I don't like the chances of that happening.
So the point of this all is that the NFL Draft is one of the toughest things to predict in all of sports. All time busts (Ryan Leaf) get picked #2 overall, and all time greats (Tom Brady) get picked #199 overall. So if George Santayana has taught us anything, it is that either the Indianapolis Colts or the Washington Redskins are going to swing and miss with one of these selections. Hopefully, at least, either Luck or Griffin doesn't end up in a jail cell in Montana sleeping next to Ryan Leaf.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: It's amazing how a plane ride from San Diego to Denver can make such a difference. Balls that look like home runs in San Diego end up being pop-ups, and balls that look like pop-ups in Denver end up flying through the thin air and getting caught in jet streams and going over the wall. A misjudged fly ball by Justin Upton, a bad start by Daniel Hudson, and a costly throwing error on an attempted pick-off throw by Bryan Shaw led to a 7-6 loss. Josh Collmenter takes the mound tonight against Jhoulys Chacin to try to get us back on track.
Daily Rangers Update: Game 2 at MSG against Ottawa at 7:00. A 2-0 series lead going back to Ottawa would be great, but with the Penguins and Canucks both down 2-0 with two losses at home, a win is by no means a given. Let's Go Rangers!
Daily Giants Update: With the draft just 12 days away, thankfully we don't have one of the first two picks, and we already have our two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback so we can focus on other positions. A tight end is what seems to be the projection of most people, and with Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum both suffering serious injuries in the Super Bowl, we are low on depth at that spot, so those projections make sense to me.
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