Sunday, March 10, 2019

An unlikely power move

In a league where a hard salary cap is king and players are known to have little to no power, no matter their ability, Antonio Brown pulled an unlikely power move that finally resulted yesterday in the Pittsburgh Steelers trading him to the Oakland Raiders for third round and fifth round draft picks. Oakland then gave Brown a $54 million contract extension, and though the full details of the deal have not been made public yet, it would seem that it means he will probably be in Oakland for the next three seasons.

For Brown, and for the Raiders, it seems like this was an instant win. Oakland has multiple first round picks this year and next year, and they were able to add arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, while also only having to give up mid-round draft picks. And in reality, I think Oakland did definitely win this trade, at least looking at it right now. However, the NFL is a league where the unexpected happens quite often, so only time will tell how this deal actually works out for Brown, and for both teams.

A year ago, Jon Gruden's first offseason back in Oakland was filled with questionable and controversial moves. Khalil Mack, one of the best defensive players in the game, was dealt to the Chicago Bears in the prime of his career. Oakland received one of those first round picks that they will be able to use this year, but the NFL draft is one of the most unpredictable things in all of sports in terms of whether or not early round choices will succeed or fail.

Sure, first round picks are great, but for Oakland to really end up winning that trade, they have to turn those picks into superstar players. For example, if they drafted someone who were to end up being as good as, say, Khalil Mack, then it would be a success. The problem with that is, Mack was the player they just dealt away. Right now, Mack is the best player on a Bears defense that is an elite unit, and while Chicago was playing in the postseason this past year, the Raiders were sitting at home watching with the rest of us.

In this case though, Oakland is on the other end of the trade. They are the ones getting the superstar player, and the fact that they only had to give up a third and fifth round pick makes this trade look even better. Brown clearly wanted out of Pittsburgh, and he spoke out publicly against anyone and everyone there, eventually getting his wish and ending up with a new team and a new contract in Oakland.

Now, if Brown is seeking warmer weather and a lot of money, then he sure came out looking pretty good as of today. However, if he wants a chance to win a Super Bowl and go down as an all-time great wide receiver, we might look back at this move a decade from now and say that Brown made a big mistake.

Don't get me wrong, if a guy wants to play the game for money, then he is more than welcome to. Go ahead and make as much money as you can, and that is totally fine. However, it is likely that Brown was going to get a big contract no matter where he signed, so this move can't only be about money. If he wants to live in warm weather in Oakland as opposed to suffering through frigid winters in Pittsburgh, then he should be thrilled. If he wants all of those things and to win? Well, that might be a problem.

We have seen NBA players force their way out of places and end up coming out good on the other end, at least somewhat so. Kyrie Irving got out of Cleveland, and is on a good team in Boston right now. Jimmy Butler did the same and is now playing for an up and coming Philadelphia 76ers team. There is a difference between the NBA and the NFL though, and in terms of one player turning around a team, the difference is night and day.

We have seen the success levels of basketball teams change due to only one player multiple times in recent memory, and Kyrie Irving and Jimmy Butler have been able to do that to varying degrees of success. Football is very different though. One wide receiver doesn't change an entire team. Antonio Brown is not going to change the Oakland Raiders from a 4-12 team to a 12-4 team by himself. The nature of the game will not allow that. In order for the Raiders to challenge for the playoffs in 2019, they are going to need to address a whole lot of things, and based on recent history, that may not be as easy as stockpiling a bunch of draft picks and thinking it will guarantee instant success.

Derek Carr is a big question at quarterback right now for the Raiders, and the team really could go a number of ways before Week 1 of next season. They might stick with Carr. They might try to draft a new quarterback. They might go after a veteran quarterback who could be available this offseason like Josh Rosen or Teddy Bridgewater. Only the team knows that, and honestly, the team might not even have made a decision on that yet.

Brown is a great receiver, there is no question about that. But, in order for a great receiver to flourish, he needs a reliable guy throwing him the ball. He had that in Pittsburgh. Looking at the Oakland roster right now, I'm not sure that is the case here.

Randy Moss forced his way out of Minnesota years ago, and actually wound up in Oakland, but that didn't work out too well, as Moss was traded to the Patriots not long after. Terrell Owens ended up in Philadelphia after being deemed a problem in San Francisco and being traded. That worked out far better than Moss, but Owens did eventually run into similar problems with the Eagles, and ended up being traded by them as well. Is Brown going to end up with a brief stint in his new destination like those two? Or is he going to end up being the reason the Raiders win a Super Bowl? Right now, we don't know the answer to that question. One thing I do know is that Oakland has more than a few areas they need to address to end up competing for a playoff spot in the AFC, especially in a division with the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, both of whom were playoff teams this past season.

There is very little doubt that adding Brown will instantly upgrade the passing game of the Raiders. However, there is also very much doubt that all of those first round picks they have stockpiled will end up panning out. Only time will tell. Brown began his career as a receiver doing nothing but produce, but in recent years, there have been some problems that have followed him. Sure, they have been minor issues compared to problems other guys around the league have been embroiled in, but they seem to have built up enough for the Steelers to tire of him and get him out of town, even for a greatly reduced price. The change of scenery might do wonders for Brown, but right now he is on a team with a far less talented offense than the one he just left, and in the NFL, you can't just snap your fingers and make the entire team around you better. Brown still can do nothing to help a defense that allowed 140 rushing yards per game and almost 4,000 yards through the air, thanks in part to the preseason trade of Khalil Mack.

The Raiders made some very questionable moves both before and during last year, and acquiring Brown is not going to make up for all of them at once. Yes, it will certainly improve the offense, but Brown can't rush the passer and cover the best receivers in the league, and the Raiders will have to deal with guys like Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill twice each next season.

We still have a long way to go before Week 1. The offseason is only just getting started, and for the Raiders and Brown, it has gotten off to a great start. Success in March does not equate to success once the games begin though. We have seen many, many examples of that.

Is Antonio Brown going to be a rich man? Yes, he most definitely is. Have the Oakland Raiders instantly become Super Bowl favorites? No, they most definitely have not. And maybe Brown isn't too worried about the Super Bowl chances of the Raiders. If that is the case, then he has already won.

With an impending move to Las Vegas, the Raiders actually still do not have a home stadium to play in next year. That means many fans in Oakland, and in Las Vegas, are most likely already frustrated with the team. If this big move ends up not working out as well as it seemingly could, the Raiders could only be facing bigger and tougher hills to climb, in more ways than one.

This is not the NBA. One player cannot instantly take a team from the basement of the league to championship contention. In the NFL, you need a full roster of players to win a Super Bowl, and while the Raiders surely upgraded one of those roster spots yesterday, it is by no means a guarantee that all of those other spots will follow.

Daily Rangers Update: The Rangers played well in a win against the Devils yesterday, and still have very slim hopes to make the playoffs. They will head out west for a road trip that starts in Calgary against a very good Flames team, and unless they can come up with some big wins over the next week, it is likely that the plans for the offseason will begin early.

Daily Giants Update: With the draft getting only closer and closer, it is still unclear what direction the team will go. It seems like for every good thing that happens this offseason, another equal and opposite bad thing has happened, so the draft is going to play a key role in shaping the roster for Week 1.

Daily NBA Update: The Milwaukee Bucks were the first team to clinch a playoff berth and yesterday became the first team to reach the 50 win mark. The fight for the final few playoff spots in the Eastern Conference is far from over though, so although it is likely the Bucks will win their first round matchup, we still do not know who they will be playing.

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