Even the most casual of sports fan, and someone who might complain about baseball for any number of reasons, has to admit that one of the clichés about the sport is true. The smell of fresh cut grass, the crack of the bat, the snap of the catcher's mitt, the mention of places like Sarasota and Scottsdale all make you think of one thing. Along with the beginning of daylight savings time, which is getting closer and closer, the beginning of spring training can only make you feel happy and refreshed. The winter is coming to a close, the weather is about to get warmer, and snow and wool hats will soon be a thing of the past.
Spring training is getting underway this week, and all of those feelings about warm weather will be in the air very soon. As is the case with any sport, the preseason brings about hope and anticipation. Everyone has the same record, and everyone has championship aspirations. Old faces are returning and reuniting at camps, and new faces are being welcomed and embracing their new teammates and surroundings. However, as of today, February 19, 2019, there are a few major faces of baseball who have yet to find a new home and new group of teammates to join.
Last season, the free agent market in baseball was very slow, in the fact that many relevant players did not sign with teams until well into the new calendar year. That has been the case this year as well, only in 2019, many of the players still available are much more than relevant. Many of them are elite players in the primes of their careers.
Manny Machado is 26 years old, has made four All Star teams, and won two Gold Glove awards. Dallas Keuchel is a Cy Young award winner who has made two All Star teams and was a key member of a World Series champion team just two seasons ago. Bryce Harper has made six All Star teams, is a former Rookie of the Year in the National League in 2012, Most Valuable Player in 2015, and arguably one of the best players in the entire sport. Craig Kimbrel has made seven All Star teams, was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2011, and led the league in saves in four different seasons. These guys are key members of their teams. The only problem is, right now, none of them actually have teams. All of them, along with multiple other very good players, remain unsigned.
Would any team in baseball be thrilled to have Machado, Harper, Keuchel, or Kimbrel? Absolutely. So why is it then, that all of them are still looking for new teams? The answer is multi-faceted and highly debated, but if you look at the reasons behind the answer, it actually might not be as surprising as you would think.
Professional football is the sport where the "second contract" of every player is most important. That is, after a player is drafted and plays out their rookie deal, which in many cases does not truly indicate their market value because it is based more upon potential than actual performance, the second contract they sign is the one in which players can really cash in on their talents. Since football is a sport where often times players will not even reach a third contract, that second deal is usually life-altering, but all other professional sports do have somewhat similar circumstances.
The "prime" of a player's career usually occurs from around the time an athlete is in their mid-20's until they reach their early 30's. There are obviously outliers in many cases, but when you are in that age range, you are most likely to be able to sign very lucrative deals, and Machado and Harper are the perfect examples of that.
Through the first seven years of Harper's career, he has averaged 26 home runs and 74 RBI per season. Play that out until, say, he reaches the age of 34, he will have hit 392 career home runs and driven in over 1,000 runs. Those are already borderline Hall of Fame numbers, and Harper could still probably play even longer than that and approach 500 career home runs.
Over that same span, Machado has averaged 25 home runs and 73 RBI. Those are pretty much identical numbers, so clearly both men certainly have the chance to put up unbelievably elite statistics over the course of their careers. And that only stretches out until both men turn 34. It is likely that they will both play longer than that, so why in the hell does it seem like no one wants either of them right now? The answer to that is a mix of a number of things.
In 2001, at the age of 25, Alex Rodriguez signed an unprecedented contract with the Texas Rangers. 10 years for $252 million. I remember seeing both of those numbers and being absolutely floored by how big they were, and I was not the only baseball fan who felt that way. Sure, Rodriguez was already a great player who was just entering the prime of his career, but a 10 year contract? For that much money? Wow.
After Rodriguez did sign the deal, he more than proved he was worth the money initially, as he averaged over 50 home runs and 130 RBI over the first three seasons. However, the problem was, the Rangers never actually made the playoffs with Rodriguez on the team, despite the fact that he did win the MVP award in 2003. Three years later, Rodriguez was playing for the New York Yankees. The Rangers had paid him for 10 years, and only got three years worth of production, even though the production was outstanding.
The case of Rodriguez is not an anomaly either. Following eleven magnificent seasons in St. Louis, the Anaheim Angels signed Albert Pujols to a 10 year deal worth $240 million when Pujols was 32 years old. That means Pujols will be making $24 million when he is 42 years old. While he is already a surefire Hall of Famer, the fact that he will be making that amount of money at that age seems not even close to worth the original deal. Right now, Pujols is an every day designated hitter who can occasionally play some first base, and he still has three more years left on that mega-deal. Robinson Cano, who signed an almost identical contract in 2014, is at nearly the exact same point in his career, yet he still has five more years of money coming to him.
To put it in terms that are more easily understood, the history of these mega-deals for a whole lot of money and a whole lot of years usually do not turn out to be worth it for the club that initially makes the offer. The players no doubt love the long term security of years and money, but general managers and ballclubs have become aware that these contracts prove more of a detriment to them than a benefit.
So, that brings us back to the cases of Harper and Machado. Both of those players have seen similarly talented players in the position they find themselves in now put their signatures on gigantic deals. Then why should these two guys seek anything different? It makes sense from their point of view. However, clubs have seen how these big contracts have a history of not working out over the long run, and now they are balking at what these guys are demanding. The ten year contracts signed by Rodriguez, Pujols, and Cano have not worked out for the teams signing those checks for even half the life of the deals, let alone the duration of the contracts, and that brings us to the stalemate we are at right now.
The players have seen the precedents set by their predecessors, but the teams have seen the precedents set as well. Both sides right now are firmly entrenched in their beliefs, and I cannot blame either side for feeling the way that they do. Are these free agents who still remain unsigned worth the money that Pujols or Rodriguez made? The case could be made that they are. However, is that money worth being spent by clubs looking to sign them? The case seems to be pretty much closed that they are not.
Will Harper, Machado, Keuchel, Kimbrel, and all of these other very good free agents still out there eventually sign somewhere? Yes, they will. For that to happen, both sides are going to have to make concessions though. Is Bryce Harper or Craig Kimbrel willing to sit out an entire season and earn no money just to prove a point? The answer to that is unquestionably, no. Are there teams out there willing to pass on an unsigned Manny Machado or Dallas Keuchel? The answer to that is also unquestionably, no.
These guys are all going to eventually end up suiting up for some team out there. At this point, the only question is when it will actually happen. They are all too talented to pass up, and every club out there knows that. Right now, because we are short on things to talk about when it comes to baseball, these guys are the main focus. Once the games begin and they eventually find homes though, fans will most likely forget about this very extended and odd period of free agency. After all, the temperature is beginning to rise, the bat is starting to crack, and the mitts are starting to snap. Baseball season is getting closer and closer, and no matter what team you cheer for, that can only be a good thing.
Daily Rangers Update: After a tough loss in Pittsburgh this past Sunday, the Rangers will be on the road to face the Hurricanes tomorrow night. There are 24 games left to play, and this would be the perfect game to win, as Carolina is ahead of the Rangers in the standings, but can surely be beaten.
Daily Giants Update: To the surprise of pretty much no one, Landon Collins received the franchise tag by the Giants, and that hopefully means he will be in New York at least through the upcoming season, and maybe even longer than that. We are not far enough along into the offseason to get a true sense of what the plans are for the team this season, but with some of the young core nearing possible free agency, this draft will definitely be important in showing what we might have in store for us for the next few years.
Daily NBA Update: The All Star game was this past weekend, and I watched none of it, as I am becoming less and less interested in the NBA season as it goes on. So much of the focus seems to be off the court and about possible offseason moves, and we still have half the season to play. As I have said before though, I am impressed at the ability of the league to stay so relevant when the conclusion of the season will almost certainly be like last year and the year before that, because one team is so much better than all of the others.
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