While the initial salary boom of the NBA offseason has now passed us by, there are still major dollars out there to be made. With all of these dollars, as is the case with money in all walks of life, comes expectations. You are paid for performance, and when athletes sign contracts for millions of dollars, the public demands that they live up to what we expect of them. I have no problem with the opinion of some people that athletes are overpaid in some cases. While I fervently disagree with anyone who takes that stance, they are entitled to believe it. Any person, in any profession, is worth whatever somebody is willing to pay them. We can dispute just how much professional athletes might deserve to be paid in comparison to other people, but let anyone trade shoes with Tyler Johnson or Allen Crabbe and see if they turn down the contracts that those two men just signed. I guarantee they would sign the deals as fast as they could write their name on a piece of paper.
There are many things that casual sports fans likely do not understand about the business of sports, and I will admit that while I am as ardent a fan of sports that you will meet, there are plenty of things that I do not understand about the business of sports as well. What is even worse is the fact that there are also countless numbers of professional athletes that have no clue about the business side of sports as well. It is why athletes have agents, but it is also why (sometimes, for better or worse, because of those agents) so many athletes retire and soon find themselves with no money. ESPN did a great 30 for 30 documentary about professional athletes going broke. It involved different reasons and different circumstances in each individual case, but the main idea of the piece was to show the world that the money that athletes make does not last forever. Get it while you can, because this is probably your only chance to do so.
Like I said, I do not pretend to know the ins and outs of the business of sports. There is one thing that I can speak on with at least some sort of knowledge though, and it is the concept that so many people seem incapable of understanding, and that is the concept of why the highest paid athletes in each sport make the amount of money that they do.
Right now, the highest paid athletes in our four major professional sports are Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew Luck, Alexander Ovechkin, and Mike Conley. When you think of our sports, those are not likely to be the names that come to mind when it comes to the top of their respective professions. Aside from Ovechkin, who I think many would argue is the best player in the NHL, those other three names are not the faces of their respective leagues.
Is Giancarlo Stanton a great baseball player? Yes, he is (although certainly try to overlook his subpar numbers in 2016). Is Conley a great basketball player and is Luck a great football player? Yes, they are. However, I highly doubt that any sports fan, casual or hardcore, would name those three as the best in their respective businesses. So why then, are they the ones making the most money? Well, the answer, in the simplest of terms, is this: timing.
It is well documented that the NBA salary cap just exploded, and the contracts we have seen being signed over the past month have been unprecedented. Kevin Durant was obviously the biggest name on the market, but he signed a deal worth $54 million, while Mike Conley signed a deal worth $153 million. How is that possible? It is possible because of the timing of the deals. Kevin Durant just signed a two-year deal with an opt-out clause after the first year. That means he will play this season in his new hometown of Oakland, opt out of his deal next year, and if all goes according to the Warriors' plan, he will re-sign a long-term deal next summer. I will bypass all of the math and the details, but because of the way the salary cap will increase exponentially again next summer, and because Durant will once again be a free agent since he can opt out of his deal, one year from now, we could be talking about Durant signing a deal worth over $200 million. $153 million for Mike Conley? That will be nothing compared to what Durant can make next summer. Durant will make more money because the time at which he signs his deal.
So Durant has already broken the bank this summer, and he will shatter it next summer. What will be even more fun next summer is to see what happens when his new teammate, Stephen Curry, becomes a free agent as well. Curry will experience his first unrestricted free agency period next summer, and if Durant will be due to shatter the bank, then Curry will probably help Durant shatter it and then burn the remains down to the ground after that. This is probably already getting repetitive, but I am trying to make this a point. Curry will be able to sign such a big deal because of the timing in which he signs it.
Before I continue this unbelievably amateurish look at the business of sports, I want to just throw in a history lesson as well. Decades ago, before anyone knew who Kevin Durant or Mike Conley or Stephen Curry or Giancarlo Stanton even were, athletes were tied to the teams that drafted them due to something known as a reserve clause. In the most basic of terms, what the reserve clause did was tie every player to his own team on a year to year basis. Free agency did not exist. Every player was offered a one-year contract prior to every season, and his only options were to sign the deal or to hold out in hopes of either being offered more money by his team, or for his team to trade him. There was no such thing as offering his services to the highest bidder.
You signed your deal or you did not play. Those were the only options. The NFL has had the franchise tag and the transition tag in place for many years now, and while it is not exactly the same as the reserve clause, it is something of a distant cousin. It is also why the NFL is able to control the money it pays to its players more than any other league allows. Just like decades ago, NFL players can in many ways be "held hostage" by their own teams, with their only recourse being the ability to hold out. It is why we hear about holdouts in the NFL much more so than in any other sport, and it is why the defending Super Bowl champions have still been unable to come to terms with Von Miller thus far, with training camp now less than a month away.
Casual sports fans have most likely never heard of the name Curt Flood, and it is likely that many ardent sports fans might only know his name but not really understand how influential he was to the business of professional sports that we know today. Flood was an All-Star caliber player, but his decision to challenge Major League Baseball and take his case all the way to the Supreme Court laid the groundwork for guys like Kevin Durant and Mike Conley to make as much money as they will now. Again, I will spare you the details, but thanks to Flood, free agency became commonplace in all professional sports, and it allowed our athletes to truly join the business world where your worth is truly open to the highest bidder.
So, with all of these history lessons aside, let's focus once again on the multi-million dollar contracts we see being signed today. I already explained why Durant, and then probably Curry as well, will soon become the highest paid NBA players. Next up is the NFL. With Andrew Luck recently becoming the highest paid player in the league, I think we can at least see a bit more justification than in the NBA. Luck plays the most important position in all of sports, he is young and just entering the prime of his career, and expectations in Indianapolis will be sky high as long as he is their quarterback.
Prior to Luck signing his deal, I remember nothing but outrage at the fact that Joe Flacco had signed an enormous contract with the Baltimore Ravens. There was no way he was the best at his position in the league, so why was he the highest paid then? Once again, it was because of timing. His contract happened to expire the year after he led the Ravens to a Super Bowl championship, and therefore the team had no choice but to pay him in order to keep him.
Cam Newton is making over $118 million, and I think many would say that he has the potential to be the future face of the league once guys like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers retire. However, he is not the highest paid player in the NFL because he signed his current deal prior to last season, a year in which his team went 15-1, he won MVP, and he went to the Super Bowl. Imagine what he would sign for if his contract were up this offseason instead of last offseason. Surely, he would now be the highest paid player in the league. Now don't get me wrong, I am sure that Newton is not complaining about that $118 million, but the timing of his deal just happened to be a year late, and because of that, he is not making as much money as Andrew Luck.
Basically, the best way to describe the highest paid player in the NFL is by looking at who the "next man up" is. And the next man up in terms of contract status is Matthew Stafford. Barring a spectacular season from Stafford and the Detroit Lions, I doubt Stafford will make as much money as Luck. However, do not be surprised when Stafford signs a deal worth more than most other quarterbacks in the league. And he can thank the timing of his deal for that.
Finally, if you thought Kevin Durant and Andrew Luck were making a lot of money, then make sure you are sitting down when you hear what Bryce Harper signs for following the 2018 MLB season. With one MVP under his belt already (and the definite possibility of another before 2018), Harper will become a free agent when he is 26 years old. As of today, Harper has hit 116 home runs in his career. He has hit 19 this season, with 52 RBI and 73 games left to play. So, let's shoot low and say he finishes the season with 35 home runs and 90 RBI. In actuality, barring injury, he will probably surpass at least one, if not both, of those numbers.
That means, after 2016, at the age of 24, Harper will have 132 home runs and 338 RBI. Barry Bonds, the all-time leader in career home runs had 84 after his age 24 season. No matter what you think about Bonds, how about we compare Harper to Babe Ruth? After his age 24 season, he had hit 76 home runs. 76 for Ruth. 84 for Bonds. 132 for Harper. And don't forget, I am shooting low here. It is surely possible that Harper ends up with more than 132 after 2018. Add that on to his overall ability, and once again, the timing of when his deal will be signed, and we are going to get a contract unlike anything we have ever seen in the history of sports.
With Giancarlo Stanton standing right now as the standard bearer for all of our sports at $325 million, I think the low estimate for Harper has to be $400 million when he signs in 2018. It might seem crazy, but I think Harper might be the first $500 million man we have ever seen, and once again, since I need to drive this point home, it is all because of timing.
Is Giancarlo Stanton the best baseball player in our game? No. But was he the last superstar we saw able to sign a big deal? Yes. Is Bryce Harper the best player in the game today? Arguably, yes. Is his time up for a new deal? No, but it is coming soon. That is exactly the same case in all of our other sports. Andrew Luck and Mike Conley are not the best in their respective leagues, but their ability and their timing matched up perfectly.
In many cases, the timing of these deals are pure luck, but sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. However, if you can match lucky and good together, then you can have a future just like Bryce Harper's. He may not be the highest paid player today, but being the highest paid player today does not mean you will remain at that peak forever. You could have sold your mansion right before our economy collapsed in 2009, or you could have sold it for a lesser value in 2011. The business of sports sometimes is just like the stock market. Bryce Harper is not trying to sell his house after the baseball economy collapsed. He is going to sell it when it is likely going to be thriving in 2018.
Buy low and sell high. Bear market and bull market. Economics and sports are more connected than most people realize, and when you are Mike Conley, Andrew Luck, and Bryce Harper, you are striking while the iron is hot. You may not be the best in your field, but your timing is impeccable, and in this thing we call life, timing is everything.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: Arizona will look to avoid a sweep in San Francisco tonight in a very rare occurrence for the Diamondbacks, a nationally televised game on ESPN. Brad Ziegler was traded to Boston, and the team already seems to be in a seller mode even though we have yet to reach the All-Star break. America's first baseman has looked a lot better lately, and Jake Lamb is in the midst of a breakout year, but there have just been to many holes to fill. With Ziegler now out the door, it will be even tougher to lock down games in the late innings, but then again if the team keeps losing, I guess there really won't be too many late innings that need to be locked down anyway.
Daily Giants Update: Training camp is just getting closer minute by minute...
Daily NBA Update: Nothing new here to report, as it seems most of the chess pieces have been moved and we can being to slowly focus on the beginning of the 2017 season.
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