Friday, April 11, 2014

A complicated situation

With the National Hockey League regular season winding down, teams in both the Western and Eastern Conferences are fighting for their final playoff positioning. Before this season, the NHL realigned its divisions and playoff format. The divisions did not undergo a major overhaul, but one noticeable difference was the fact that both conferences did not now include 15 teams. The Eastern Conference was made up of 16 teams (after gaining Detroit and Columbus), and the Western Conference was made up of 14 teams (after losing those two, but gaining Winnipeg). The league also went to a four-division format, instead of the six divisions that it had last season. On the surface, none of this seemed to be too significant, but once we look at the new playoff format, we see the major impact of this realignment.

In all four of our major sports, playoff formats vary. The NBA's is probably the simplest to understand, as the #1 seed in each conference plays the #8 seed, the #2 seed plays the #7 seed, and so on. The only caveat is that the winner of each division (there are three in each conference) must be among the top four seeds in the conference. That still makes winning the division guarantee home court advantage in the first round, but it still allows for a second place team in a particularly strong division to gain a seed higher than the division winner of a particularly weak division. In the second round, the winner of the #1 vs. #8 matchup plays the winner of the #4 vs. #5 matchup, and the winner of the #2 vs. #7 matchup plays the winner of the #3 vs. #6 matchup. That way, the teams with the two best records in each conference would be on track to meet in the conference finals. Very fair and reasonable.

As of last year, Major League Baseball implemented a change in its playoff system, and while it was met with some disdain, it is, in my opinion, easy to see why the league did it. Instead of having the winners of each of the three divisions, plus the team with the next best record make up the four teams in each league, a fifth team was added to the equation. Now, the teams with the fourth and fifth best records in each league play one another in a one-game "win or go home" scenario. The winner of that game then takes on the team with the best record in each league, and the remaining two division winners play each other. After those series' end, the two remaining teams in each league play one another for a shot to go to the World Series. Those who oppose this format do so because it supposedly puts the playoff hopes of four teams (two in the American League and two in the National League) on the line in one game. However, I do like this because it makes winning your division extremely important. The difference between possibly missing out on the postseason in a one-game playoff and winning the division makes each regular season game that much more important. In my mind, it works.

Things get a bit more complicated in the National Football League. With four divisions of four teams in each conference, there are a whole lot more scenarios to figure out. The league also implements a bye-system. The two division winners in each conference with the best won-loss records get the first weekend of the playoffs off to rest and recover. In a league where injuries can strike at any moment, and can ruin seasons in doing so, getting a bye in the first round of the playoffs is a huge incentive. After that, the winners of the other two divisions play the two non-division winning teams with the best record in each conference. Again, in an effort to make winning the division of extreme importance, those remaining two division winners host a first round game against one of the wild card teams, no matter the overall record of the teams. While this seems to make sense, it sometimes proves to be controversial when the winner of a particularly weak division hosts a wild card winner that could have a better record but still be forced to play a road game. Therefore, a 9-7 team from a weak division could host an 11-5 team from a strong division.

This was of particular note in 2010, when, in a terrible NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks actually won the division with a 7-9 record. It was the first time a team with a sub .500 record had won its division, and therefore, the Seahawks hosted the 11-5, defending Super Bowl Champion, New Orleans Saints. People yelled and screamed about it being unfair, but the Seahawks ended up winning that game (remember the Marshawn Lynch earthquake-inducing run). Now, homefield advantage surely played a part in Seattle's victory, and it is undeniable that they do have quite the advantage thanks to their home fans. It also appeared unfair, because the team with the home atmosphere that is probably second best in the league is the New Orleans Saints. If the game had been played in the Superdome in New Orleans, it would likely have been a much different game. However, this case is seemingly the outlier, and for the most part, the first round of the playoffs pretty much gets it right.

Next, is the NHL, and if the new divisions and unbalanced conferences might seem a bit new and take some time to get used to, just wait until we look at the format of the playoffs. The two division winners now face-off against the #7 and #8 seeds in each conference, now referred to as wild card teams. Wild card teams can come from any division, but they can finish no higher than third in their own division. The top three teams in each division are guaranteed a playoff berth, no matter their record. After that, the wild card winners are the two teams outside the top three in their own division, and those teams can come from either division. As it stands right now, the two wild card teams in the Eastern Conference would be the Philadelphia Flyers (from the Metropolitan Division) and the Detroit Red Wings (from the Atlantic Division). However, in the Western Conference, the two wild card teams would be the Minnesota Wild and the Dallas Stars, both members of the Central Division. This follows the model of the NFL, and it allows good teams from strong divisions to be rewarded with berths in the postseason. Therefore, this means the #1 seed will still play the #8 seed, and the #2 seed will still play the #7 seed. After that, we really see the effects of the new format.

Instead of the team with the third best record in each conference playing the team with the sixth best record, the second and third place teams in each division will play one another. This actually is a disadvantage to teams who play in a strong division and do not come in first place. As it currently stands, that means the Canadiens and Lightning will play one another in the first round, and the Rangers will play the Blue Jackets, despite Montreal and Tampa Bay both having better records than New York and Columbus. Under the old format, Montreal would have home-ice advantage in the first round against Columbus, and Tampa Bay would have home-ice advantage in the first round against New York. Instead, Tampa Bay is actually being forced to go on the road in the first round, and New York is being rewarded with home-ice advantage, despite Tampa Bay's record being superior to New York's. Like the NFL, this is technically unfair, but it is not drastically unfair.

In the second round, unlike the NFL, the divisional affiliation still matters. The winners of the "wild card" matchups, in all likelihood being the division winners in each conference will then play the winner of the first round matchup from their own respective division. That means the second round is guaranteed to be a matchup of division mates, no matter their overall records in respect to their seed in the conference. The case to look at here is that of the Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago currently stands in third place in the Central Division with the fourth best record in the Western Conference. In the old format, Chicago would have home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs against the team with the fifth best record in the West. Therefore, they would be guaranteed home-ice advantage in at least one round thanks to a very good regular season. However, due to this new format, Chicago could actually have to play the #2 and #3 seeds in the West, and not have home-ice advantage at all.

Right now, Chicago would play on the road in Colorado in the first round, and then, were they to win that series, they would go on the road again to play St. Louis. Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks, who have a worse record than Chicago could potentially play at home in the first round and second round (if Anaheim were to be upset by the #8 seed in round one). This seems to be much more of a disadvantage to a good team in a good division like Chicago, and it makes their road to the Stanley Cup much tougher than it should be.

If this is all a bit confusing, then I have proven my point. The NHL is clearly the #4 sport based upon popularity in the four major American sports. I wrote earlier that its Winter Classic was a major attention-grabber, and has been a unquestioned success, but the new "Stadium Series" the league implemented this season took a bit of the glamour away from the Winter Classic. It seems like the league was messing with a good thing and being a bit greedy in doing so, and I tend to think similarly about this new playoff format. To those who watch intently, the NHL playoffs are extremely competitive and always fun. However, to the more casual fan, an extremely convoluted and confusing playoff format is surely not going to bring them any closer to investing more time in the game of hockey. It is easy to point the finger at commissioner Gary Bettman here, and he surely is deserving of much of the blame, but the league in general, including the owners, have not, in my mind, changed the league for the better here. Innovation and change can be for the better sometimes, but too much tinkering with a product that is lagging behind its competition can also turn out bad as well, and I don't like what the NHL has done with postseason here.

Daily Rangers Update: With only one game left to play, the Rangers seem destined to be hosting the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round of the playoffs. As I just mentioned, this is actually an advantage for them, as in the old format the Rangers would be going on the road against Tampa Bay and have a potential second round matchup with the top-seeded Bruins awaiting them in round two. Instead, if they win their first round matchup with Columbus, they are still guaranteed to avoid Boston in the second round.

Daily Nets Update: The Nets have four games left to play, and they seem to be locked into the #5 spot in the Eastern Conference. Who they play in the first round is still undecided, as the Raptors and Bulls are tied at #3 and #4 in the east. Chicago will be tough, and Toronto has certainly flown under the radar despite being a very respectable 46-32. Either way, the Nets will have to go on the road to open the playoffs after the regular season ends.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: Coming off a series win over the San Francisco Giants, the Diamondbacks open up a series at home tonight against the Dodgers. They still find themselves at the bottom of the National League standings, and the pitching has been very poor over the first 12 games. Losing Patrick Corbin right before the start of the season was a big blow, and the rest of the rotation has not exactly picked up the slack so far. They have been piecing together a staff with guys like Oliver Perez and Randy Wolf, and Randall Delgado has struggled mightily so far after winning a spot in the rotation out of Spring Training. We might be seeing Archie Bradley a bit sooner than expected if the rotation continues to struggle like it has thus far.

Daily Giants Update: Eli Manning underwent successful surgery on his ankle today, and he should be able to run again in six weeks. The preseason is still a long way away, but with a whole lot of questions on the offensive side of the ball, it would be nice to get the man who has never missed a start in his career back ASAP so the unit can begin to gel.

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