Wednesday, August 31, 2016

The last of my NFL Predictions

With the preseason winding down, roster cuts already underway, and the regular season quickly approaching, I want to finish up my predictions. Therefore, if any of them happen to be right, I will now officially have them out for everyone to see. I seriously doubt they will all be right, but even some sort of success would be nice. The final division to preview is the NFC West.

NFC West
For a long time, this was considered one of the weaker divisions in the league, but now it could be argued that two of the top five teams in the NFL are playing here. Seattle has appeared in the playoffs the past four seasons, and two of those appearances resulted in trips to the Super Bowl. They will no doubt be tough again. The Cardinals have made the playoffs two years in a row, and this team is better than both of those teams. It will be a rough and rugged fight at the top of this division.

Seattle Seahawks
A lot of people have Arizona penciled in at the top of this division, but I think the Seahawks will win it. The defense, as usual, is one of the best in the NFL. They have great players at all three levels, and led the NFC in rushing, passing, and scoring defense in 2015. What makes me a believer that this team will win the division is what Russell Wilson showed last year. Over 4,000 yards passing, 34 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. Wilson is no longer just a game manager. He is a team leader and a very good quarterback. With Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham (remember him?) leading the receiving corps, I like the potential that Wilson has to match what he did last year. Losing Marshawn Lynch is tough, but I do think that Thomas Rawls can at least be a serviceable replacement. The great equalizer here is injury. The offensive line is not great, and if Rawls or Wilson go down, Seattle will be in big trouble. Barring that though, this should absolutely be a very good team.

Ceiling: Super Bowl. That is what they should be thinking in Seattle. The defense is one of the best in the NFC, and Wilson has done nothing but get better and better as a quarterback. They are going to be in a dog fight with a very good Arizona Cardinals team at the top of this division, but whoever finishes second should still be playoff bound. Seattle has a chance to be 11-5 or 12-4 and win it all.

Floor: The offensive line and injuries seem to be the only way that this team can be derailed. The depth is not great, so if a star on either side of the ball goes down, they might be in trouble. If the offensive line is unable to block for Rawls, then maybe too much pressure is put on Wilson. While he has definitely been improving, I still don't think he is good enough to put this entire team on his back. Despite that, I still find it hard to believe this team finishing any worse than 8-8.

Reality: I definitely think the ceiling here is more likely than the floor. Wilson was brilliant last season, and they have multiple elite defensive players. If this team is not playing into the Divisional round of the playoffs, I would be very surprised. When the NFC Championship game is played, I expect the Seahawks to be there.

Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals seemed to have everything going their way in 2015. That was until they faced the Panthers in the NFC Championship game and were blown off the field, losing by 34 points. They will be out to prove that was an anomaly this year, and have a team that is definitely capable of doing some serious damage. Fantasy players are high on running back David Johnson, and I like him, but don't forget about Chris Johnson behind him. At this point in his career, I think Chris Johnson is in the perfect spot. Catch some passes out of the backfield, and get under 10 carries a game. The offense will not be elite, but it can definitely be good enough.

The strength of this team, just like the Seahawks, is the defense. Patrick Peterson is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, and the addition of Chandler Jones is huge. The linebacking corps is not the greatest, but with a very good defensive line and a very good secondary, Arizona can improve on what was already a top defensive unit.

Ceiling: Just like the Seahawks, the Cardinals should be thinking Super Bowl. Arizona has never won a Super Bowl, but I think many people feel that this is their best chance to finally end that drought. I think the best case scenario for Arizona is a first round bye and a berth in the Super Bowl, with a legitimate shot at winning.

Floor: The offensive line is not the greatest, so if that group is unable to pull its weight, it could seriously hinder Arizona's chance to make a deep postseason run. However, I think at worst this is a 9-7 team.

Reality: The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFC. Arizona will play the Patriots right out of the gate, but the best part of that is they will be the only team in the NFC West to play New England when they will be without Tom Brady. The rest of the division will have to face the Patriots after Brady is back from suspension. That is a definite advantage for the Cardinals. Depending on the seeding it may not happen, but we could surely see Arizona and Seattle playing in the NFC Championship game. That would be the first time two teams from the same division played in the conference championship game since 2013.

Los Angeles Rams
First, it is going to take some time to get used to saying Los Angeles Rams again. As far as geography goes, the Rams playing in Los Angeles makes much more sense in a division called the NFC West, but they have played in St. Louis for over two decades, so the first hurdle I will have to face with the Rams is getting used to saying Los Angeles instead of St. Louis.

As far as the team on the field, they have some elite talents in Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald, but they also have multiple weak spots and a rookie quarterback. As of today, it appears that Jared Goff will start the season on the bench, but as the first overall pick in the draft, it is almost a certainty that he will start at some point in 2016. In a division with two elite defenses, plus a matchup with Carolina, Goff is most likely going to see things he never saw in college. Gurley was a workhorse last year, and Los Angeles will rely heavily on him again this year. However, I think it is tough to believe that this team will compete for a spot in the playoffs. The future might be bright, but the future is not 2016.

Ceiling: With a young stud running back and a first overall pick at quarterback, I think the fans in Los Angeles, who have gone over two decades without football, can be somewhat optimistic. I just think that optimism cannot be for the 2016 season. The top of this division is too tough. If the Rams can get to 9-7, they should consider this year a success.

Floor: Los Angeles gets Arizona and Seattle twice, Carolina, and New England (who will be with Brady by the time they play). Right there could be six losses. San Francisco could be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but I think the Rams could still be staring at something like 5-11 here if their young players do not develop very quickly.

Reality: The schedule and the division here just seem to tough for Los Angeles to overcome. If the Rams get anywhere near a playoff berth I would be very surprised. This is probably a team that should finish around 6-10.

San Francisco 49ers
Since Jim Harbaugh left for Ann Arbor, the 49ers have done nothing but decline. And if that wasn't bad enough, Colin Kaepernick now has the team in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Chip Kelly has been a polarizing figure since he entered the league with the Eagles, and this is not exactly the best locker room for him to drop into. It seemed like Kaepernick was the perfect quarterback to fit Kelly's spread offense, but now that it seems like Blaine Gabbert is going to start the year as the quarterback, this team could be making more headlines off the field than on the field, and fans in San Francisco could very well be in for a long year.

Ceiling: Colin Kaepernick, for multiple reasons, has seemingly played himself into a job as the backup to Blaine Gabbert, and any team that is relying on Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback is in trouble. There are a few nice players on offense, but the defense is nothing like what it was a few years ago when San Francisco was playing in the Super Bowl. Anything other than last place in the division should be considered a success for the 49ers.

Floor: To put it bluntly, this could certainly be the worst team in the entire NFL. Do not be surprised if the 49ers are picking first in the draft next season.

Reality: This division is too tough for San Francisco to finish anywhere other than the bottom. They were at or near the bottom in every statistical category on both sides of the ball in 2015, and I find it hard to believe that 2016 will be any different. DeShaun Watson is expected to be one of the top prospects coming into the 2017 draft, and I think he could be wearing a 49ers jersey when draft day comes. If this team goes anything better than 4-12, I would be very surprised.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: Zack Greinke improved to 12-4 last night in San Francisco, and while he has not been as close to as dominant as he was in 2015, the 12-4 record still looks pretty good. The team recalled Shelby Miller to start today, and I didn't want him the second we gave up Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson to get him in the offseason. He has done nothing but prove me right with a 2-9 record and a 7.14 ERA. The rosters will expand to 40 tomorrow, so it is not surprising to see him with the team for the last month of what is a lost season. Seeing A.J. Pollock back in center field is great, but every time I see Miller in a Diamondbacks jersey, I hate the trade even more. He will be on the mound this afternoon, so if the team wins, I will feel slightly better about the trade, but when I stand at 99% against the deal, I don't see him swinging my feelings too much any time soon.

Daily Giants Update: The final preseason game is tomorrow night against the Patriots. I don't expect the starters to play a ton, as the last preseason game is usually more important for the players at the back end of the roster than it is for the stars of the team. What I have seen so far has been mostly negative, but no one will remember the preseason once the regular season begins. The Giants go to Dallas on September 11th, and 4:25 PM on that day cannot come fast enough.

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