NFL Predictions: Part Six

NFC South
The NFC South is an interesting division. It has been known for teams going from bad to good over short periods of time, and it is led by the defending NFC Champion Carolina Panthers. Carolina should be at the top again this season, but after that, I think it is definitely wide open.

Carolina Panthers
Obviously, the Panthers ended last season with a disappointing Super Bowl loss after a 15-1 regular season. Cam Newton is the defending MVP and expectations will be sky high for him again in 2016. However, Carolina is still led by their defense. In what was probably the most surprising move of the offseason, the Panthers let standout cornerback Josh Norman leave. The secondary will not be as good because of that loss, but this team has arguably the best front seven in the game. Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, and Kawann Short are studs, and Star Lotulelei and Kony Ealy are very good as well.

The offense still centers around Newton, but he gets Kelvin Benjamin back on the outside after missing all of last season. Greg Olsen is elite and Jonathan Stewart is solid as well. The combination of the league MVP and an elite defense should be good enough to win this division again this season.

Ceiling: With the return of Benjamin, the offense almost certainly will be better. Losing Norman is tough, but Carolina's defense is so good that I think they can still compensate for it. The Panthers should be thinking Super Bowl or bust.

Floor: After a 15-1 season and a Super Bowl appearance, it is hard to see the floor being very low. If somehow they get hit by a ton of injuries and extreme drop offs from their star players, I think the absolute worst this team could finish is 9-7.

Reality: The leaders of this team are all in the primes of their career, and the time is now for the Panthers. I fully expect them to win the division, and they should probably have a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Therefore, this team should be playing in the NFC Championship game with a chance to go back to the Super Bowl. Anything less than that should be considered a failure.

New Orleans Saints
After Carolina is where this division gets very tough to predict. New Orleans was 7-9 last year thanks to what was an absolutely atrocious defense. The Saints ranked dead last in the NFL in scoring defense, and second to last in rushing, passing, and total defense. I don't care how good Drew Brees is, it is pretty much impossible to overcome a defense as bad as that. The Saints did address a few problems on defense via free agency and the draft, but I am not sure it was enough. I don't know if there is a stat that tracks how many points are scored over the course of a season in each individual season, but if you go to the Superdome in New Orleans this year, you are almost guaranteed to see a whole lot of points no matter who the Saints are playing.

Ceiling: Brees is a quarterback that is good enough to turn any target into a star, and guys like Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks should be the beneficiaries of that ability in 2016. The defense was dead last in the NFL last season, allowing just under 30 points per game. If they are able to cut that down by even five points, this team can be good enough to win enough shootouts to at least be in playoff contention. If that happens, I think the Saints could at least make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Will they win a game when they reach the postseason though? No, I don't think they can.

Floor: Barring any sort of injury to Brees, the Saints are going to score a lot of points. However, if the defense continues to give up even more points, New Orleans could be in for a tough year. They have gone 7-9 in three of the past four seasons. If they get zero breaks at all and the defense stinks, I think at worst the Saints go 6-10.

Reality: I think the floor is closer to the reality here than the ceiling. New Orleans has been a mediocre team in recent years because of their inability to stop anyone, and I really don't think they did enough to change that. I see the Saints going anywhere between 9-7 and 7-9 and on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In my opinion, this will be one of the most intriguing teams to watch in the entire league in 2016. Tampa Bay went 2-14 in 2014, drafted Jameis Winston, went 6-10 in 2015, and I think they could certainly surpass that win total by more than a few games this season. In terms of total yards, Tampa Bay was fourth in the NFC on offense last year and third in the NFC on defense. They made multiple nice additions on the defensive side of ball via both the draft and free agency, and they have guys with a ton of potential on offense, and that begins with Winston. Every time I see him play and hear him talk, I am extremely impressed by what I see, and I think he certainly has the potential to eventually blossom into one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
A lot of what I like about this team is based on potential talent and future projections, but I think fans in Tampa Bay definitely have many reasons to be optimistic about where this team can go.

Ceiling: It starts here with Winston. He had a pretty good rookie season, and with weapons like Doug Martin, Mike Evans, and Vincent Jackson, this offense could definitely be explosive. The key on that side of the ball will be the offensive line though and whether or not they are able to give Winston time to utilize those targets. If that does happen and a defense that looks pretty good on paper can meet those expectations on the field, I think that 10-6 and a playoff berth is definitely possible.

Floor: The development of young players here is the key. Now that other teams have a year of tape to study on Winston, he will need to get better. The offensive line could also potentially be a big problem. If the young players do not develop as quickly as the front office might like, Tampa Bay could finish last in this division with a record of 6-10 or 5-11.

Reality: Like I said, I really like the potential of this team, and I think the arrow is pointed up. It may not all come together in 2016, but with another year of experience under their belts, as long as they avoid injury, I like the way this team is shaping up. I doubt Tampa Bay will make the playoffs, but I think they should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-8. The last time the Bucs finished over .500 was 2010. Maybe they won't get there in 2016, but they should at least be close.

Atlanta Falcons
There is always discussions in the NFL during the offseason about player rankings potential and all kinds of stuff like that. For the most part, it is to fill the time, but sometimes it is a full dose of truth. People always like to rank quarterbacks and debate legacies. There is the elite class of quarterbacks, there are teams with huge quarterback problems, and then there are those guys in the middle. It seems like Matt Ryan has firmly established himself as one of those guys in the middle. Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford. These guys are all in the same class. They can put up big numbers in the regular season, but once January rolls around, you aren't going to see them for very long.
Julio Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Devonta Freeman had a breakout season (although his production did taper off at the end of the year). Yet Matt Ryan is still the same guy we have grown to know him as. Sometimes he is good, sometimes he is bad, and in the end, he seems to always come up short when the chips are down and the games mean the most.
As is the case with all of those "middle class" quarterbacks, I need to see it from Ryan before I believe it. Until that happens, my expectations will only be mediocrity. What do I have to base those expectations on? Ryan's entire career, that's what.

Ceiling: Over the past five seasons, the Falcons have been as good as 13-3 and as bad as 4-12. This wild inconsistency is exactly what I have learned to expect from them, and it what all of us should be familiar with now. I don't think they will go 13-3, but I think that if things go their way, they could be looking at 10-6 and a playoff berth. Once they get there though, I'm sorry, I just do not see them winning a game in the postseason.

Floor: Coming off an 8-8 season, I do think Atlanta has enough to stay in the race for the NFC South long enough to remain relevant. However, I think they could definitely be looking at something like 5-11 if their roster does not live up to its expectations.

Reality: There is no disputing it. The Falcons are a mediocre team. I think at best this team challenges for a playoff berth, but in reality, this is most likely a middle of the pack team. What does that mean? 8-8.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: It is too bad that the Diamondbacks can't play the Mets all the time. After a 13-5 win last night, Arizona has now taken five of six from the Mets in the past week. The next 11 games are against the Padres, Braves, and Reds, all of whom are having very tough seasons. Maybe a nice stretch of wins? Maybe? Possibly? Please, hopefully???

Daily Giants Update: The next preseason game will be this Saturday against Buffalo. After getting the first preseason game off and allowing us to see how bad Ryan Nassib really is, Eli Manning will be on the field to start. Hopefully the starting defensive unit can improve upon a pretty nice performance last weekend. The offensive line still needs a lot of work, and I am almost at the point of no return when it comes to Bobby Rainey returning kicks. Health is always the biggest thing to worry about in preseason games, and my main concern will be everyone finishing the game unscathed.