NFL Predictions, Part Three

So after making my predictions that are sure to be wrong on the AFC East and AFC North, next up is the AFC South. Preseason predictions in the NFL are always tough, but the AFC South is about as tough as it gets this year and you could use either logic or a dartboard and your chances of predicting this division would probably be about the same. There are surely superstars in this division (Andrew Luck and J.J. Watt are at the top of that list), but there are also all types of questions about each team as well. Since there always seems to be at least one division in the NFL each season that sees a surprise winner, I am going to make it this one.

Tennessee Titans
The Titans followed up a 2-14 season in 2014 with a 3-13 season in 2015. So why would I ever pick them to win the AFC South? 50% of me says that it is totally crazy, but the other 50% says it might at least be possible.

Marcus Mariota is coming off a rookie season in which he passed for just under 3,000 yards and threw 19 touchdowns. In elite NFL quarterback terms that is nothing special, but I was a bit surprised by how well he played coming from an offense in college that was nothing like an NFL offense. The Titans lacked a true threat in the backfield, but they addressed that this offseason by signing DeMarco Murray. It is no secret that he was completely mishandled in Philadelphia, and while he may not lead the league in rushing like he did in Dallas, I do think he will be much more effective with the Titans this season. Mariota is also a very capable runner himself, and Tennessee does have a good offensive line. And what else did Tennessee add to their backfield? Oh that's right, Derrick Henry, the Heisman Trophy winner. With Mariota, Henry, and Murray, the Titans have a dangerous rushing attack. Add Delanie Walker to that mix at tight end, and I think Mariota has some pieces around him to be successful.

The defense is relatively strong and it is led by Jurrell Casey up front. Linebacker is a question mark, but Tennessee's secondary is not too bad. Like I said, I am going out on a limb here, but Tennessee is definitely improving.

Ceiling: These possibilities are going to get repetitive in this division. I do like some things that the Titans are doing, and I think it could be possible that they win the division. If that does actually happen though, I think that is as good as it will get. They are still not on the level of the elite teams in the AFC and will not win a playoff game.

Floor: The floor is last place. It is quite a difference from the ceiling, but like I said, this division is the textbook definition of wide open. At worst, I think Tennessee is drafting in the top ten in 2017.

Reality: It is a bit of a reach to pick the Titans to win this division, but in all reality, I think that the winner of this division could surely finish at 9-7. Is that possible for Tennessee? Yes. Is it probable? No. However, for the sake of my prediction, I will say they go 9-7.

Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were on the upswing after Andrew Luck proved himself to be a top level NFL quarterback, but they regressed last year and finished at 8-8. Having Luck alone gives them an advantage over the rest of the division, as he is clearly the best quarterback, but they have a ton of question marks as well.

T.Y. Hilton is elite and Donte Moncrief is an up and coming talent on the outside, but I don't think Frank Gore can handle a full season as a starting running back, and that means that Andrew Luck is going to have a lot of pressure on his shoulders. He can handle it, but he is prone to turnovers and does take a lot of punishment. Not having a running game is not a recipe for success with Luck as your quarterback. The defense was bad last year, and there are a lot of aging players on that side of the ball, so I think that will only add to the already heavy load on Luck's shoulders.

Ceiling: This team definitely could win the division. They won 11 games in three consecutive seasons after falling to 8-8 last year, so maybe that was just an outlier. However, just like every other team in the AFC South, there are questions. I think 10-6 is the best that fans in Indianapolis could expect.

Floor: Since Luck does take a beating quite a bit, the worst case scenario is that he gets hurt. If that happens, then this team has no shot to even sniff a playoff berth. I do not expect that though. In a division full of mediocre teams, I still think the Colts have enough to finish 6-10 at worst.

Reality: Like I said, the Colts have the talent to win this division. I would not be surprised if that happens. I expect them to finish at 8-8 or 9-7, but I think they will be hard-pressed to win a playoff game.

Houston Texans
Houston won the division last year at 9-7 but were blown off the field by Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs. The question with the Texans has always been the play at quarterback, and Houston spent a whole lot of money to bring in Brock Osweiler, who is at best, somewhat proven. Osweiler will have a ton of pressure on him to live up to the huge contract that he signed, and I am not sold that he can do that. DeAndre Hopkins is a budding superstar at wide receiver, and J.J. Watt anchors the defense. Last year the team made the playoffs with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback, and I do think that Osweiler is at least an upgrade over him. I am not sold at all on him though, since he played last year on Denver with a Super Bowl winning defense and not much pressure because of that defense. He held down the fort without Peyton Manning, but when the games really started to matter, Osweiler was on the sidelines. This will be his chance to show that he should be on the field in January.

Ceiling: If the defense is above-average and everything falls into place on offense, I think that Houston can win this division. I doubt they win a playoff game, but if Osweiler is able to prove that he is a starting-caliber quarterback, the future could look much brighter. 10-6 and a playoff berth should be the ceiling for Houston.

Floor: The floor here is all about Osweiler. If he is unable to live up to the high expectations heaped on to his shoulders because of the contract he signed, he will get most of the blame for a bad season, and I do not know if he has the makeup to deal with that happening. If Tennessee and Jacksonville improve and the Colts play up to the potential that they have, Houston could finish last in this division.

Reality: I do think that Houston could make the playoffs, but I just am not sold on Osweiler. They managed to play into January with Brian Hoyer last year though, so maybe they can do that again. Either way, one postseason game should be as good as they can hope for. I do not see this team playing past Wild Card weekend.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are a team that many people have their eyes on as a potential sleeper to make some serious noise. They are surely on the upswing and the future looks bright, but in order for them to be a serious threat in 2016, everything is going to need to fall in place all at once, and the chances of that happening are slim. Blake Bortles seems to have the potential to be a good, but not great, quarterback, and they do have good talent at the skill positions.

I really like their defense though. Jacksonville took Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack in the draft, and it could be argued that those were the two best defensive players available yet Jack fell to the second round due to injury. They also signed Malik Jackson, who played a huge role in Denver's Super Bowl run.

Ceiling: If everyone stays healthy and plays up to their potential, this is the best team in the AFC South. However, that is a very big if. Jacksonville is definitely on the upswing though. They have only won 14 games combined over the past four years though, so I think it is too much to ask for them to instantly become a great team. If Jacksonville could get to 8-8, they should be happy.

Floor: The potential is there, but this team is still extremely young. We have seen top-flight talents be drafted high and turn out to be disappointments, so do not put Ramsey in the Pro Bowl just yet. Malik Jackson was great for Denver last year, but we see guys plucked off of great defenses time and time again that prove they were benefactors of a great unit, and not as good once they are removed from that unit. Bortles has gotten off to a pretty nice start over his first two years, but he is far from proven right now. If injuries occur and key components do not live up to the lofty expectations, I think 5-11 or 4-12 is still possible.

Reality: It is all the same in this division. All of these teams have the potential to go 10-6 or 6-10. I do really like what Jacksonville is building, but I think it will take a few years to all come together. They were 5-11 last year and I think they should improve upon that in 2016. If that happens and the young pieces can develop, this has the potential to be a team with a very bright future.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: After taking a beating yesterday at the hands of the Dodgers, the only real drama today is the trade deadline, which is now only a few hours away. The team traded Tyler Clippard to the Yankees yesterday, and I think it is possible that Daniel Hudson might be dealt as well today. Add those to Brad Ziegler being traded a few weeks ago, and it seems like every spot in the bullpen will be up for grabs going into 2017.
As a side note, Josh Collmenter was designated for assignment yesterday, and we may have seen the last of him in a Diamondbacks uniform. He was by no means a star, but he has played a role throughout the pitching staff for a number of years, and it will be sad to see him go.

Daily Giants Update: When I get alerts on my phone that Odell Beckham Jr. was injured in practice and it is August 1st, it is not a good thing. He got tangled up with Janoris Jenkins yesterday but he should be fine, and that is a relief. It is great when training camp rolls around, but it also means that the threat of injury exists every day. Thankfully, Beckham avoided that yesterday.