Finishing the AFC predictions

With football just getting closer and closer, and my predictions likely to even be worse and worse, next up is the AFC West.

AFC West
Obviously, the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos had the last laugh in this division in 2015, but with the retirement of Peyton Manning and the continuing improvement of other teams, I think this could be a very competitive and interesting division this year. To start, I am unseating the champs.

Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are coming off a season that saw them win 11 games and run the Houston Texans off the field in their first playoff game. They lost by only a touchdown to the Patriots the following week, and I do think that the potential is there for a similar season.
As has been the case with this team for the past few seasons, the name of the game is an offense that controls the ball and an attacking defense. A big key here on both sides of the ball will be staying healthy, but if they can do that, I think the Chiefs have the personnel to continue to win with that style and win the division.

Ceiling: The defense is the key for Kansas City. They have star players on every level, and this was one of the best defenses in the league last year. I think they could surely match that in 2016. If everyone on the other side of the ball stays healthy, I think this offense could definitely be good enough to score what they need to win the game. This team should be focused on winning the division.

Floor: I find it hard to believe that this defense will be below average, but I do think that the offense could be the downfall here. If a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness hinders the offense, I think the Chiefs might be looking at something like 6-10 or 7-9.

Reality: The strength of this team is clearly the defense. I am not saying that they are a Super Bowl caliber unit, but I do think that they are definitely good enough to lead this team to the playoffs. The Chiefs won a playoff game last season, and I think that is a reasonable expectation again this year. Anything more than that would be a bit of a surprise, but I do think that this team will be playing in January.

Denver Broncos
I have not addressed this since the Super Bowl, but I need to get this off of my chest. The Broncos did not win the Super Bowl last season with some subpar and useless quarterback. I understand that Peyton Manning had the worst statistical season of his career, but I hate to hear people say that this was a Super Bowl champion team that could have just plugged anyone in behind center and won it all. I do not care how bad Manning was by his standards last season. He was still on the field when the games mattered the most in January and February. Any old bum would not have won the Super Bowl. Manning is one of the greatest to ever do it, and his knowledge and presence played a huge part in this team winning the Super Bowl. Do not tell me that the Broncos won despite Peyton Manning. And if you do tell me that, then you do not know what you are talking about.

With that said, his retirement does absolutely play a huge role in what will happen in Denver this year. Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan are gone, but this is still an elite defensive unit. The quarterback situation is unprecedented as far as defending Super Bowl champions goes, and Denver has a huge issue there with a roster full of unproven or average quarterbacks. The defense is still very good, but the success of the 2016 Broncos likely depends on what kind of production they get from the quarterback position.

Ceiling: While the defense did lose some key pieces, this is still one of the best units in the NFL. If they can get the quarterback situation figured out early, then Denver absolutely can be a playoff team. They did lose one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game and a few pieces of their defense though, so while I do not think they can repeat as champions, this team definitely should have playoff aspirations.

Floor: The worst case scenario in Denver is that the quarterback situation becomes a black hole that no one can fill. We know Mark Sanchez is an average QB, and we know pretty much nothing about Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian. If the Broncos have no answer under center and the defense is not up to par, this team will miss the playoffs.

Reality: As is obviously the case, the fortunes of this team are based upon the play of whoever ends up being their starting quarterback. The defense is good enough to get them into January and possibly win one playoff game, but I do not see this team playing past the Divisional Weekend of the postseason.

Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders bandwagon has grown so much over the past few months that it is pretty much out of space. I definitely do like the direction this team is going in, but I am not quite ready to proclaim this team as the up and coming unstoppable force that many feel they are. They do have some studs that the casual fan may not know about (Khalil Mack, Kelechi Osemele, Rodney Hudson), but I am not totally sold on them from top to bottom. At least I am not sold just yet. They have done an excellent job of drafting over the past few seasons, and the 2015 draft class has a chance to be stellar as well.
Some people are crowning this group too early. Have the Raiders improved over the past few years? Yes. Without question. However, from 2012 to 2014 this team went 11-37. A record like that does not make a 180 degree turn in one season. Oakland is getting better, but I am not going to accept the fact that they are going from zero to hero as of today.

Ceiling: If the young players on both sides of the ball continue to develop nicely for Oakland, I do think this team can make the playoffs, although that might be a reach right now. If that somehow does happen, I still find it very hard to believe that they will win a game once they get there.

Floor: This team should be good enough to at least hit 8-8. If somehow they get hit by regression and injuries though, maybe they finish 6-10 at the worst.

Reality: I think Oakland definitely has a shot at 8-8. They went 7-9 last season and on paper they have a better team. It will be tough to compete with Kansas City and Denver at the top of the division, but I think fans in Oakland should be hoping for at least 8-8 and second place in the division.

San Diego Chargers
It seems like the Chargers have been the same team for about a decade now. Some guys might put up pretty nice numbers in the regular season and the team might challenge for the postseason, but that is about as good as it will get. After finishing a mediocre 33-31 from 2011 until 2014, San Diego finished a far from mediocre 4-12 in 2015. That means there is nowhere to go but up. However, I am not sure that journey up will being this season. Philip Rivers has been basically the same guy throughout his entire career, and the team has followed suit. A berth in the playoffs has been nice, but after that has usually been too much to ask.

Ceiling: I think right now that San Diego is definitely the worst team on paper in this division. We know what a lot of these guys are. They have added a few nice pieces over the past few drafts, but I just do not think it is enough. If the Chargers somehow got to 7-9, I think they should consider it a successful season.

Floor: It would be hard to find many people that think this team is going to finish anywhere besides the bottom of the AFC West. They do have enough to at least match their 4-12 record of last season, but I do think it is definitely possible that they might equal it.

Reality: Other than the Browns, I think the best bet for a team to finish last in its division in the AFC is the Chargers. They are simply not as good as the rest of the division, and I really think that they will be looking at something like a 5-11 season and a top ten draft pick in 2017.

Daily Diamondbacks Update: More losses just keep piling up, and they have been less and less competitive over the past few days. It has been a very, very tough month for the team.