Over the last two days, a whole lot of teams, both at the collegiate and professional level, ended their football seasons. With the final day of the NFL regular season concluding yesterday, and the college football semifinals being played the day before, the offseason began for a lot of players. One of those players was Oklahoma Sooners quarterback, and reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Kyler Murray.
The Sooners lost to Alabama in the semifinals by a score of 45-34. While it was a disappointing end to Oklahoma's season, I do think that the team will look back on 2018 as an overall success, and Murray surely will, and he will have a Heisman Trophy to prove it. The focus for Murray now shifts to the offseason, and it is definitely going to be an interesting one. He could probably enter the NFL Draft and have a good chance to go into next season with at least a shot at being a starting quarterback for some team in the league. The only problem with that is, he has already been drafted by another team in another sport.
The Oakland Athletics drafted Murray in the first round this past summer and signed him to a $5 million contract to be a future star for them. The A's organization did so knowing that Murray would be playing football at Oklahoma this season. Both he and the team knew that it might be somewhat risky to play a year at quarterback, but they showed faith in him by signing him anyway. I'm sure Murray knew he could be a successful football player going into this season, but I'm not sure that he planned on winning the award as the best college football player in the country. Now that he has won the Heisman Trophy, it seems like he could actually have a better shot at getting a job in the NFL than anyone originally planned, and many people are starting to wonder if he should take that chance and throw his name into the mix for the upcoming NFL draft a few months from now.
With the NFL game continuing to evolve and ever so slightly become more and more similar to the college game, could Murray actually have a successful career as a pro quarterback? I think the answer to that right now is, yes, that could possibly happen. With that being said though, I don't think that means it is the best career path for him. There are a number of reasons for that, and I think when you factor them all into the equation, the best path to a successful athletic career for Murray is on the baseball diamond.
We do have examples through history of athletes playing multiple sports with success. Deion Sanders and Bo Jackson are the first ones to come to mind, but I'm not sure that Murray fits into that category. Murray is extremely athletic and gifted like both of those men, but he is only (listed at) 5'11" tall and 195 pounds. In reality he is probably a few inches shorter and a few pounds lighter than both of those numbers. Deion Sanders was listed at 6'1" and 195 pounds coming out of college, while Bo Jackson was listed at 6'1" and 230 pounds. So right off the bat, Murray is smaller than both of them.
We also need to take into account the position that the three men played, or in Murray's case, play. Sanders was a cornerback, Jackson was a running back, and Murray is a quarterback. So, let's take a look at the sizes of some of the best players to ever play those positions.
Running back
Barry Sanders - 5'8" 200 pounds
Emmitt Smith - 5'9" 210 pounds
Curtis Martin - 5'11" 210 pounds
Cornerback
Rod Woodson - 6'0" 205 pounds
Charles Woodson - 6'1" 210 pounds
Darrell Green - 5'8" 185 pounds
Quarterback
Tom Brady - 6'4" 225 pounds
Joe Montana - 6'2" 205 pounds
Drew Brees - 6'0" 210 pounds
So, in the case of Jackson, he was actually very big compared to those all-time great running backs. Sanders was about average. Murray however, is smaller in terms of both height and weight than all of those quarterbacks. If Murray were to enter the NFL right now, he would be the smallest quarterback in the league, and when it comes to that position, size certainly does matter. People trying to downplay size at the position point to Drew Brees and Russell Wilson (who also was drafted by a baseball team), yet Murray is still even smaller than both of them. Also, aside from Brees and Wilson, the examples of successful NFL quarterbacks that small is pretty much zero.
On the other hand, let's take a look at his size compared to some of the best Major League shortstops, both current and former.
Francisco Lindor - 5'11" 190 pounds
Carlos Correa - 6'4" 215 pounds
Ozzie Smith - 5'11" 150 pounds
Barry Larkin - 6'0" 185 pounds
The point of this is that Murray is built much more like a professional shortstop than a professional quarterback. And I haven't even mentioned the financial differences between the two sports, and how much more secure Murray could be if he played baseball as opposed to football.
Right now, Murray is projected to be at best, a late first round pick in the NFL, but is probably more likely to be drafted in the second or third round. Lamar Jackson, a quarterback who was considered somewhat small, at least based upon strength and weight, was the 32nd pick of the first round this past year, and he is due to make about $5.4 million. That means the top salary that Murray could probably expect in his first season in the NFL is not too much different from the salary he could make playing baseball.
So maybe football isn't such a bad decision then, right? After all, Murray's football stock will likely never be as high as it is right now, and with NFL teams constantly looking for quarterbacks, and often over-drafting them, maybe Murray could find a team that fell in love with him and make more money than he will make in his first year as a football player than he could in his first year as a baseball player. The biggest problem with that though, is that is what he could make in his first year. That doesn't mean he will be making that for his entire career, and the chances are very low that a career as a quarterback will last as long as a career as a shortstop.
According to the NFL Player's Association, the average career for an NFL player is just over three years long. The league claims it is six years long, so let's put it in the middle since both of those groups have somewhat conflicting interests, and say that the average NFL career is about 4.5 years long. Studies on Major League Baseball careers show that the average career in that sport lasts about 5.5 years.
So that means as the 32nd overall pick in the NFL draft (which is probably as good as it will get for Murray), he could make about $24 million. With the salary he is currently signed to in Major League Baseball, he would make about $25 million. So, if the difference is only $1 million, maybe the choice to play football isn't such a bad one.
Next though, we have to look at the contract structures of both sports, and the simplest way to do that is to look at guaranteed money. This past offseason, Kirk Cousins signed a groundbreaking deal with the Minnesota Vikings, as he became the first player in the history of the NFL to sign a contract with all of the money fully guaranteed. Aside from Cousins, every player in the history of the NFL has signed a contract in which all of the money has not been guaranteed. On the other hand, the contract that Murray signed with the A's is already fully guaranteed, and he has not even played a single game for the team. So in a sport like baseball, where the injury risk is far less than football, the benefits truly begin to show.
Football at any level is a violent game, and despite recent rules changes to make the game safer, it is inherently violent, and that is not going to change. Former players walk away from the NFL with serious medical problems. And that is not something that is a rare occurrence. It happens a lot. That rarely happens with baseball players, and even if it does, they still are much more likely to have more money, and better health benefits from the league to cover their medical expenses.
Does that seem fair? No, it doesn't. In fact, it actually seems to make no sense at all. The guys playing the sport that is clearly more violent and a much bigger risk to your health, are getting paid less. So you could point to the chances of success Murray might have playing football as lower than his chances of success playing baseball, but coupled with the health risks of the two sports, it is pretty clear to me that he should choose to pursue a career in baseball.
Murray is free to choose whatever he wants to do with his future going forward. He can strike while the iron is hot, enter the NFL draft, and as a Heisman Trophy winner, possibly go on to a very successful career as a pro football player. Or, he can play baseball, be at a much smaller risk of injury, and be guaranteed to at least make more money as a rookie. If he were to sign a second contract in baseball, he could be set financially for life. If he were to do that in football, he could be set for life, but he could also walk around with some sort of serious injury for the rest of his life, and have less money to show for it as well. It might be pointing out the extreme to try to make a case, but if you listen to other former athletes, even including professional football players, it seems that the consensus is he should play baseball.
Murray has already reached historic heights in football that only a select few have reached by winning the Heisman Trophy. The allure of being an NFL quarterback might never be bigger for him than it is right now. However, being a professional athlete, no matter the sport, is often about using a very small window for a career to earn enough money to last a lifetime. Five years from now, Murray could be a baseball player who is guaranteed to make $5 million, or he could be a football player, who is most likely going to have made less money, and more likely to have suffered at least some sort of injury that hinders his ability to be healthy for the rest of his life. As I said, he is free to choose whatever he wants, but if I were giving him advice, I would tell him that the choice should be pretty easy. Hang the shoulder pads up, pick up your mitt and bat, and become a superstar shortstop.
Daily Giants Update: While it might not be the case for players and coaches who have jobs on the line, as a fan, I think there can be moral victories in football. Some of the worse teams in the league put up little to no fight in their Week 17 games and ended the season on a very poor note, but despite a 5-11 record, the Giants were not one of those teams. They lost to the Cowboys 36-35 yesterday, but put up a valiant effort in a very exciting game. The focus now becomes the draft and free agency, and I think there will be changes to the roster, and maybe some significant ones, but I am glad the team ended the year in the fashion they did, and I am looking forward to the offseason.
Daily Rangers Update: The Rangers got a very nice win on the road against a good Nashville Predators team two nights ago, and currently are on the outside looking in at the playoffs as we close in on the halfway point of the season. Next up is a game in St. Louis tonight against a Blues team that has struggled this season.
Daily NBA Update: The Magic won on a buzzer beater by Evan Fournier last night, and the Raptors continued to roll as well. One team I have been pretty impressed by is the Dallas Mavericks, who are being led by superstar rookie Luka Doncic. I think they are still a year or two away from real contention, but the arrow is definitely pointing up.
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