With training camps officially underway and most contract disputes finally worked out, we are now officially allowed to at least begin to think about football. It's like at the end of the Thanksgiving Day parade. We celebrate Thanksgiving, but at the very end, Santa Claus rides in and Christmas, Part 1, finally begins. The open of training camp is just like that. We are far enough away from Week 1 that football is not on the mind of everyone like it will be in September, but the football shopping season is actually here.
The great equalizer in football is always the ever-looming threat of injury. During the preseason, we will see at least a few big names go down that will have a significant impact on the season. Last year it was Jordy Nelson. The previous year it was Sean Lee. There are always season-ending injuries that occur months before the season during training camps. It stinks, but it is simply the reality of the NFL world. It has been a while since I have made any preseason predictions, but with football on my mind, I want to do that today. However, since injuries inevitably do always happen, I do want to mention that these predictions will be based upon rosters as they stand now. Suspensions and contracts are all pretty much ironed out, but the injuries will be coming. So with that asterisk, here are my 2016 NFL predictions. I will start in the AFC.
AFC East
For most of the past decade, this division has belonged to the New England Patriots. Tom Brady finally gave up his fight against a four-game suspension though, and Jimmy Garoppolo will be at the helm for New England during the first four games of this season while Brady will not be allowed to be in contact with the team. It does theoretically give extra hope to the rest of the division, but we are talking about the Patriots here, so fans of the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins should not get their hopes up too high.
New England Patriots - As I just mentioned, Brady will be out for the first four games. New England opens the season with a very tough game in Arizona, and they also play Buffalo and Miami, so that will be a big chance for both of those teams to jump out to an early lead in the division as they will get a Brady-less Patriots team.
However, like I said, we are talking about the Patriots here, and they always find a way to make things work, even when the deck is stacked against them. If New England can make it through those first four games at 2-2, I think they will still be in good shape.
Obviously, the offense will be very good, but New England's defense was above-average last season. Losing Chandler Jones will surely be tough, but they added some pieces on the defensive side of the ball as well. The Patriots have won 12 games in each of the past four seasons, and I think we should expect double digit wins again, despite Brady missing the first four games.
Ceiling: As has always been the case with New England over the past decade, the ceiling is winning the Super Bowl.
Floor: If Garoppolo struggles early on and New England drops to something like 1-3, there might be some cause for concern, but even if that happens, I still think Brady and Co. will be able to overcome a slow start.
Reality: As usual, we should be watching the Patriots playing into January. Maybe they won't win the Super Bowl, but it is definitely what they have their sights set on.
New York Jets: Now that Ryan Fitzpatrick has finally re-signed with the team, I think Jets fans should be going into this season feeling pretty optimistic. A team that has never really been synonymous with a great offense has the potential to be pretty good on that side of the ball. They replaced the now retired D'Brickashaw Ferguson with Ryan Clady and added Matt Forte to replace Chris Ivory. Losing Ferguson and Ivory hurts, but I think they still do have enough on the offensive side of the ball to be good enough.
I hear a ton of people saying that the Jets have a Super Bowl caliber defense, and while it is definitely the strength of the team, I do not think it is up to that level. They did draft Darron Lee in the first round, but they also lost a few good pieces as well. Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off of a career season (Week 17 aside), and I think with the weapons he has in place and a defense that is definitely in the top-third of the league, the preseason optimism of Jets fans is warranted.
Ceiling: While I do not think that the Jets will finish ahead of New England, I do think that they have a roster that can at least be playoff-caliber. They were 10-6 last year but missed the playoffs. I do think they might be able to make the playoffs, but at best, I see this team winning one playoff game and then going out in the divisional round.
Floor: The Jets have an extremely tough schedule in 2016. They have to go to Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Kansas City, and they also have games with Cincinnati, Seattle, Baltimore, and Indianapolis, as well as their two annual games with the Patriots. I find it tough to believe that they will finish last in the division, but with a schedule like that, I think 6-10 could be possible.
Reality: The schedule cannot be ignored here. Not only are the games outside the division tough, but they are also the only team in the division that will not face New England during the first four weeks, so that means they will get to see Tom Brady twice. It will be difficult for them to win 10 games again this season, so I think something like 9-7 or 8-8 is what we are looking at here.
Buffalo Bills: Buffalo has the potential to be a pretty good team, but with that man named Rex Ryan on the sideline, we all know by now that his bark is far larger than his bite. The Bills did lose some on defense, but between the draft and free agency, I think their already stout defense will be improved. They have some explosive weapons on offense, but they will need to stay healthy, and that begins with Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor really surprised me last season with how well he played, and their offensive line is good. If they are able to stay healthy, this team could have a pretty good offense and a very good defense.
Ceiling: On paper, the Bills look like a team that could potentially sneak up on some people and be pretty good. Adding Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland to the defense via the draft definitely helps there, and Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy elite offensive playmakers as long as they can stay on the field. If all goes well, I think Buffalo can make the playoffs, but I don't think they can win a game once they get there.
Floor: If the injury bug hits and Tyrod Taylor takes a step backwards, it will be another disappointing year for the Bills. They went 9-7 in 2014 and 8-8 in 2015, and the Bills always seem to be involved in at least one crazy and unexpected game each season. However, that does not mean those kind of games will end in their favor. If things go awry, I think Buffalo might be looking at a 6-10 season, and maybe worse if things spiral far out of control.
Reality: I do actually like the way that this roster looks on paper, but they have injury concerns and/or inexperience in a lot of key spots. I think they have what could be a very good defense (remember the name Preston Brown), but I really find it tough to believe that any team led by Tyrod Taylor can make any noise into January. Maybe if everything breaks in their favor Buffalo sneaks into the playoffs, but I find it almost impossible to believe that they would win a playoff game if they even get there.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins made the most news this offseason thanks to the Laremy Tunsil draft fiasco, and in my opinion, that is the closest they will get to the back page of the newspapers in all of 2016. Optimists can look at Ryan Tannehill and say that he has the potential to be pretty good, and he is still young enough for me to believe that he does have room to develop and grow, but until I see him lead Miami to anything better than an 8-8 season, I can prove his supporters wrong. They were in the middle of the pack (at best) in most categories both offensively and defensively in 2015, and they did add a few familiar names in the offseason, but I just don't think it is enough.
Ceiling: If guys like Ndamukong Suh, Mario Williams, Byron Maxwell, and Kiko Alonso can play at their peaks, then the defense has the potential to be pretty good. However, despite all of their names being familiar to most football fans, there is a reason that all of them have bounced around to and from multiple teams. Miami lacks talent in key spots on offense, and I just don't think Tannehill is good enough to offset all of those deficiencies by himself. I think 8-8 is as good as it gets here.
Floor: As is the case with the entire division here, since they all get the NFC West and the AFC North, the schedule will be very tough. Miami opens on the road against Seattle and New England, and then they go to Cincinnati for Week 4. Their schedule in December is at Baltimore, home for Arizona, at the Jets, at Buffalo, and home for New England. Any momentum they might have going into those final five games probably will be squashed. The floor is last place in the division and possibly a 5-11 or 4-12 season.
Reality: The Dolphins won 8 games in 2014 and 6 in 2015, and I would not be surprised if that total dropped once again in 2016. In my mind, Miami will be fighting to stay out of last place in the division.
That is all for the first day of my NFL previews. Next up will be the AFC North.
Daily Giants Update: As I said, training camps are underway. Victor Cruz has pledged that he will be back and better than ever in 2016, but I will believe it when I see it. Preseason games are still a while away, so at this point all we are looking for is a rapport to be formed with the veterans and newcomers.
Daily Diamondbacks Update: One of the reasons I am already looking forward to football is because of the struggles of the Diamondbacks. At 42-60, it is tough to see any drastic improvement in the second half, and right now it seems like the only hope will be to stay out of last place in the division. We begin a set in Los Angeles tonight.
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