The weather is (slowly...very slowly) getting better, and as the calendar turns to April, it signals the beginning of the 2013 Major League Baseball season. There are always interesting story lines to follow as the season opens, and many more talking points will arise throughout the next seven months in the baseball world. Before I address any individual stories, here is an American League division-by-division look at how I think things will play out in 2013.
AL East
This is clearly the best division in all of baseball. We are always used to the Red Sox and Yankees spending tons of money to bring players in, but they were both upstaged by the Toronto Blue Jays this offseason, who made major changes and appear to have gone all-in on a revival of the franchise and what they hope can be a trip back to the World Series for the first time in two decades.
Toronto Blue Jays - This was a tough choice, but I think the Jays are the team to beat here. They have a ton of speed with guys like Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, and Rajai Davis, and they also have mashers like Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista to drive in runs. On paper, this offense has the potential to be great.
The additions of R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle means that they have two proven commodities at the top of the rotation. If Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson can stay healthy (which, in their cases, is far from a certainty), the rotation could be great as well.
The bullpen doesn't feature any big names, but the guys they do have are very underrated, and I think they can get the job done. We learned last year from the Marlins that an offseason spending bonanza does not always work, but I'm inclined to think that this one will pay off with at least a berth in the postseason. They may not be World Series contenders, but I think this is a playoff team.
New York Yankees - Although this definitely is not the strongest Yankee team we have seen in recent years, they simply always are in the postseason discussion, and until that changes, I am not counting them out. Injuries will really be tough on the Yankees early on, as Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, and Mark Teixeira will all miss the first few weeks of the season. However, when those three return, this is still a very good offensive team.
As far as the pitching goes, C.C. Sabathia is still the definition of a workhorse, Andy Pettitte will still probably win at least 10 games despite being 439 years old, and Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova are both stellar as well.
In the bullpen, Mariano Rivera is back for one last ride, and he is hoping to go out in style just like Ray Lewis. David Robertson is one of the best setup men in baseball as well. As I said before, the Yankees are always in the mix when the season winds down, and no one should be surprised to see them playing into October once again in 2013.
Baltimore Orioles - This was a tough choice. You could make an argument for Baltimore to be higher in the division based upon the talent they have and what they did in making the playoffs last season, or you could say that they were the "team of destiny" in 2012, and they won't be able to catch all the breaks they seemingly caught daily last season. I am inclined to put them somewhere in between, but this has the potential to be a postseason contender.
The offense should be very good. Adam Jones and Matt Wieters lead the way, and youngster Manny Machado seems to be a star in the making. All through the lineup, the Orioles have guys that can hurt you in various ways.
The big question here is the rotation. Baltimore had a plethora of guys start games for them in 2012, but none of them were particularly effective over the course of the entire season. Jason Hammel is the "ace," but on many teams he would be a middle-of-the-rotation guy. The wild card here is much heralded prospect Dylan Bundy, who is probably too talented to be held back in the minor leagues for much longer. If he is able to have an immediate impact and provide a much needed spark for the rotation, it will do wonders for Baltimore's playoff chances.
The bullpen is above average, and Jim Johnson has become a top-notch closer. After what happened last year, it is impossible to count the Orioles out. Whether or not they win 93 games again remains to be seen, but I still think they can compete for a spot in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Rays - The often disrespected Rays finish fourth here for me, but don't be surprised to see them finish higher than that when the season ends. Losing James Shields and B.J. Upton will obviously hurt, but the Rays have overcome longer odds before. Despite the loss of Shields, the strength of this team remains its rotation, which is led by former Cy Young winner David Price. Jeremy Hellickson is a strong #2 guy, and the Rays have a ton of options after that, including youngsters like Alex Cobb and Matt Moore.
As I already said, the loss of B.J. Upton will obviously hurt the offense (as well as the defense), but if the Rays can get an injury free season from Evan Longoria, it will go a long way in helping to ease the pain. Additions like Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson will help as well, and don't forget about jack-of-all-trades Ben Zobrist, one of the most underrated players in all of baseball. If the offense needs a boost, don't be surprised to hear the name Wil Myers, as he was the big return that Tampa Bay got in return for James Shields, and he may not spend much more time in the minor leagues.
In the bullpen, it would be unfair to expect Fernando Rodney to repeat what he did in 2012 in saving 48 games and posting an un-earthly 0.60 ERA. However, he is still very good at the back end of the 'pen, and the setup guys are good as well.
In any other division, this would be a very good team. However, since the AL East is so tough, the Rays will have to battle every night to win games. They have the talent to do so though, so don't be surprised to see this team in the playoff picture in September.
Boston Red Sox - Oh, how times have changed in Beantown. After a decade of success that included two World Series championships, Boston collapsed at the end of the 2011 season, and suffered through a last-place year in 2012. The team was highly criticized last year for what many perceived as a white-flag waving trade in which they sent Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers, and while those two will obviously be missed, Boston still has a lot of talent in their lineup.
Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia are both proven stars, and David Ortiz can still drive in runs. New faces like Stephen Drew and Shane Victorino will help as well. Also, Will Middlebrooks is a youngster of whom much will be expected. Boston can still score runs, do not doubt that,
The rotation is coming off a very poor year, and I think it is fair to say that Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz will not be as bad in 2013 as they were in 2012. Felix Doubront won 11 games last season, and if he repeats that in 2013, Boston should be thrilled. Ryan Dempster is on the downside of his career, and I have lost all hope for John Lackey.
In the bullpen, the Red Sox added Joel Hanrahan, who was a very underrated closer during his time in Pittsburgh. They also have useful arms like Andrew Bailey, Koji Uehara, and Craig Breslow. The bullpen is definitely respectable.
Like I have said throughout this AL East preview, the Red Sox will have a tough time in such a good division. However, this still can be a team that finishes at least near the .500 mark. I don't think fans in Boston should expect to be cheering their team into the playoffs, but they still have enough pieces to at least improve after a disastrous 2012.
AL Central
Unlike the AL East, the Central is a division that will most likely be far less competitive in 2013. Despite not being able to reach the peak and win a World Series, the Tigers have been the class of this division for the past few seasons, and I don't expect anything different this year.
Detroit Tigers - After a disappointing end to 2012 in which Detroit was swept by the San Francisco Giants in toe World Series, the Tigers field a team that will look much like the 2012 version, except they will get Victor Martinez back from injury, and Torii Hunter will be playing right field. Detroit still features arguably the best hitter and pitcher in all of baseball (although it is getting harder and harder to argue against those acclaims) in Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. The addition of Torii Hunter and the return of Victor Martinez, as well as the presence of guys like Prince Fielder, Austin Jackson, and Alex Avila make this offense very formidable.
Verlander obviously leads the rotation, but guys like Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, and Doug Fister combine to make this rotation excellent from top to bottom.
The biggest question here is in the bullpen, where the Tigers let Jose Valverde go, and now do not have any proven closer on the roster. Bruce Rondon was thought to be the closer-in-waiting, but after a bad spring, he was sent down to Triple-A. Phil Coke, Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque, and Octavio Dotel are very good in middle relief, but can one of them take over as a full-time closer? That still remains to be seen.
However, despite the predicament at the back end of the bullpen, this team is simply too talented not to win this division.
Kansas City Royals - After years and years of struggles, the arrow is finally pointing up in Kansas City. The Royals are loaded with young talent, and they added James Shields in a big offseason trade. Shields will be counted on to lead the rotation.
Offensively, this team is loaded with potential. Much was expected from Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas in 2012, and the duo did not meet those expectations. However, going through tough seasons will probably work out well for them both, and I expect them to start reaching their potentials in 2013. In left field, Alex Gordon is very underrated, and do not be surprised to see a huge season from him. Billy Butler provides a whole lot of power, and Salvador Perez is one of the brightest young stars behind the plate in all of baseball. A lot of it is potential, but this offense could be very good.
Shields heads a rotation that may still not be great, but has a chance to at least be pretty good. Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, and Bruce Chen aren't flashy names, but I think they can all win at least 10 games, and that is more than Kansas City has been able to expect from the middle of its rotation for a long time. Kansas City also acquired Wade Davis from the Rays in the Shields deal, and while he has not met expectations yet during his career, he has the potential to be a very good #5 starter.
The bullpen features zero household names, but do not mistake that for meaning it is not a good group of pitchers. Greg Holland, Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera...learn these names now because this 'pen definitely has some talent.
The Royals have been a bottom feeder in the AL Central for a long time now, but I think that the future is bright in Kansas City. Are they good enough to challenge Detroit for the top spot in the division? No. Are they good enough to surpass the .500 mark for the first time in a decade though? Absolutely.
Cleveland Indians - Coming off of a bad year in which the Indians won only 68 games, Cleveland now has a marquee name as their new manager (Terry Francona), and they added a multiple nice pieces in Nick Swisher, Drew Stubbs, Michael Bourn, and Mark Reynolds.
Bourn is arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball, and he will instantly add a spark to the top of Cleveland's lineup. Stubbs adds speed and Reynolds adds power, although they both strike out at remarkably high rates. Swisher also will provide a nice presence in the middle of the lineup. Those four will all join a lineup that already featured guys like Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana. Potentially, this could actually be a very good offense.
The big question here is the starting rotation. Justin Masterson heads the staff, but he would not be a #1 starter on most teams. Ubaldo Jimenez is next in line, and we are getting close to the point that it is time to stop expecting the great things he did in 2009 and 2010. We're not there yet, but he had a bad year in 2012, and it would be wrong to expect big things from him in 2013. The wild card here is former Diamondback Trevor Bauer. He is loaded with potential, but he was not very good last year in his short stint with Arizona. He is still very young though, and I am still wary of the fact that the Diamondbacks trading him away could end up being a really bad move.
Cleveland's bullpen is actually very good, even if it doesn't feature marquee names. Chris Perez can be a very good closer, and guys like Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, and Bryan Shaw are good in middle relief.
Overall, I think this team has the potential to surprise some people, but most of it will depend upon how their questionable rotation fares. Cleveland won't challenge Detroit for the AL Central crown, but don't be surprised if they finish in a distant second place.
Chicago White Sox - After surprisingly staying atop the division for the majority of 2012, the White Sox were unable to hang on down the stretch, and they were eventually surpassed by the Tigers and Chicago watched the playoffs from home. However, there were a lot of positives that the White Sox were able to take away from the 2012 season, the first of which was new found ace Chris Sale. Whether or not Sale could make the transition from the bullpen to the rotation was a huge question, and Sale emphatically answered that with a yes. He won 17 games, had an ERA of 3.05, and is now the unquestioned #1 starter for the White Sox.
After Sale, the White Sox feature an above average rotation that features Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd, Jose Quintana, and (when he is healthy) John Danks. If Sale is able to come anywhere close to what he did in 2012, this rotation has the potential to be pretty good.
Offensively, the White Sox have some solid players. Paul Konerko is aging like a fine wine, and still driving in runs at 37 years old. Adam Dunn may not hit 41 home runs again like he did in 2012, but we all know what he can do. A lot of power and not much else. Alex Rios is coming off a huge year, and if he can come anywhere close to the .304/25/91 line he put up in 2012, White Sox fans should be thrilled. Dayan Viciedo and Tyler Flowers add some power potential, and Alejandro De Aza adds speed at the top.
Like the Royals and the Indians, the White Sox bullpen might not feature any household names, but it has the potential to be pretty good. Addison Reed will be the closer, and he will look to build on a nice 2012 in which he saved 29 games for Chicago. Nate Jones, Matt Thornton, and Jesse Crain are solid as well.
After the Tigers, this division is really wide open. I doubt that Chicago will spend the majority of the season in first place like they did in 2012, but I think that they could realistically expect to finish anywhere from second to fourth in the division.
Minnesota Twins - After winning over 90 games and making the postseason in both 2009 and 2010, the Twins have struggled mightily over the past two seasons, winning 63 games in 2011 and 66 games in 2012. In a division that is not very strong, I still find it hard to believe that the Twins will be good enough to compete once again in 2013.
The offense features two proven stars in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, but seeing both of them simultaneously make it through a 162 game season without missing time due to injury has been a rare occurrence. Josh Willingham is solid, and Trevor Plouffe is a nice player, but after that, Minnesota has a whole lot of unproven players. Pedro Florimon, Darin Mastroianni, Aaron Hicks...these are players who have proven little to nothing at the major league level, and the Twins will be hoping that they can play big roles in their success in 2013. There is potential, but until I see legitimate proof, I can't believe that these guys will be able to shoulder much of a load in 2013.
The starting rotation has a bit more overall proven experience than most of the lineup, the problem is, it is made up of proven mediocrities. Vance Worley, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, and Scott Diamond have experience at the major league level, but none of them are more than middle-of-the-rotation pitchers, and guys like Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder will be salivating at the chance to face whoever is on the mound for the Twins. The bullpen is average at best. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton are serviceable, but nothing more.
In a weak AL Central, I think the Twins are still at the back of the class. They simply have too many mediocre players to have a realistic shot at competing in 2013. If Minnesota finishes anywhere above last in the division, I think they should consider it a good year.
AL West
Everyone in this division should be thankful of the addition of the Astros, as Houston will provide a new whipping boy for all other teams in the division. As far as the top of the division goes, I cannot see the Athletics repeating what they did in 2012, and I think that the fans in Anaheim should be expecting a deep run into October.
Anaheim Angels - First, let me get this out of the way; this is a legitimate World Series contender. The rotation took a definite blow with Danny Haren and Zack Greinke leaving, but I think their replacements are still good enough to provide enough support to an offense that is arguably the best in all of baseball.
As far that offense, where do I begin? Is it with newly signed, former AL MVP Josh Hamilton? Or maybe three-time MVP first baseman Albert Pujols? Or what about the man who put up what could possibly be the best rookie season in the history of American sports in 2012, Mike Trout? No matter what, the Angels will boast one of the best lineups in baseball. With those three studs being supplemented by guys like Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar, opposing pitching staffs should fear having to face this offense.
As I said before, the "weakest" part of this team is probably its starting rotation. However, when your rotation is led by an ace like Jered Weaver, you need to use the term "weakest" in a loose manner. Weaver is one of the best in the game, and C.J. Wilson is very good as a #2. Haren and Greinke are gone, but they have been replaced by Tommy Hanson and Jason Vargas, both of whom have the ability to be pretty good. Anaheim's 2013 rotation may not be its strongest in recent memory, but it is still very formidable.
Mike Scioscia's bullpens have long been excellent, and I don't see 2013 being any different. Ryan Madson is good, but not great, as a closer, but Anaheim boasts a strong middle relief corps that makes this bullpen very good.
Like I said, this team is good enough to win the World Series. Even after an unbelievably great 2012 season, the sky is still the limit for Trout. Is some sort of regression possible, or maybe likely? Yes. However, could he also be the next coming of Ken Griffey, Jr.? Yes. Willie Mays? Well, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet. No matter what he does, he has plenty of support, and no one should be surprised to see this team lifting the World Series trophy in November.
Texas Rangers - After two straight AL pennants in 2010 and 2011, the Rangers returned to the postseason in 2012, only to be eliminated before reaching a third straight World Series. On paper, the 2013 version still looks formidable, but I would be surprised to see them reach the World Series for a third time in four years.
Obviously, the Rangers were dealt a huge blow this offseason when Josh Hamilton not only left, but at the same time signed with their biggest rival, the Anaheim Angels. Add to that the losses of Michael Young and Mike Napoli, and the Rangers offense took a serious hit. Texas was able to add A.J. Pierzynski, who is coming off a very good year, but he will not even come close to making up for the loss of Hamilton, Young, and Napoli. Texas is beginning to go with homegrown talent, as Leonys Martin is slated to be their starting center fielder, and it surely can't be long before we see Jurickson Profar, who is considered by many to be the top minor league prospect in all of baseball. The Rangers' infield is so stacked with Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Elvis Andrus though, the only problem might actually finding a spot for Profar to play. Nelson Cruz and David Murphy will play the outfield corners, but Martin has a long way to go in replacing Josh Hamilton in center.
The rotation is good, but not great. Yu Darvish has been good since coming over from Japan, and guys like Matt Harrison and Alexi Ogando are solid as well.
The bullpen took a hit when Mike Adams and Koji Uehara left, but Joe Nathan is a very good closer, and Joakim Soria could provide a huge spark when he returns from Tommy John surgery (the Rangers hope that will be some time in May).
This team is definitely good enough to make the playoffs. If the rotation can overachieve and some young position players can provide a spark, the Rangers could potentially make a run at another pennant. I don't see that happening, but I think we could at least see Texas playing into October.
Oakland Athletics - After a miraculous and completely unexpected division title in 2012, the A's return in 2013 with what will obviously be heightened expectations. Whether they will repeat their 2012 success is up for debate, but I am inclined to say no at this point.
The offense featured a ton of "no-names" who just simply seemed to continually come through in the clutch in 2012, and I have a hard time believing that will be the case again in 2013. Guys like Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespedes, and Brandon Moss are serviceable, but are they the centerpieces of legitimate, perennial contenders? I don't think so.
The strong point in Oakland should be their starting rotation. Between Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, and Brett Anderson, the A's are loaded with young talent on the mound. Those four all have the potential to win at least 10-15 games in 2013.
As seems to be the case with any playoff team, the bullpen in Oakland was spectacular in 2012. The 'pen remains largely intact in 2013, with mainstays like Grant Balfour, Ryan Cook, and Jerry Blevins leading the way.
This team took its fans on a magical run last year, and it is unfair to expect similar results in 2013. Can they be good again? Yes. However, I don't think it is realistic to expect Oakland to finish any higher than third in the AL West this year. Texas and Anaheim are simply too talented. I think, at best, Oakland is a long shot to reach the playoffs, but even that would be asking a lot.
Seattle Mariners - Thanks to a very competitive division in 2012, the Mariners finished last, despite winning a respectable 75 games, which was the most for any last place team in baseball. However, as has been the case in recent years, I find it hard to expect much better than that in 2013. Seattle still boasts arguably the best starting pitcher in all of baseball in Felix Hernandez, but his supporting cast just remains too sub par to challenge for a spot in the postseason.
Offensively, the Mariners were one of the worst teams in the American League last season. They added Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse to a lineup that already included Kyle Seager, Jesus Montero, and Dustin Ackley. None of those name jump off the page to the casual fan, but the Mariners should at least be better offensively than they were in 2012 (although there is really nowhere to go but up).
The only thing more questionable than Seattle's offense is its rotation after Felix Hernandez. With guys like Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez, and Blake Beavan, the Mariners have a rotation that is anything but proven. The bullpen is at least somewhat better, as guys like Tom Wilhelmsen and Charlie Furbush have made some marks at the major league level.
With an average offense and a questionable pitching staff after the ace, I find it hard to see the Mariners finishing anywhere above fourth place in this division. If the Astros weren't so terrible, I would have to slate Seattle in the fifth spot, but for now, I'll keep them out of the AL West basement.
Houston Astros - Welcome the the American League, Astros fans! Thanks to you, we now get interleague play throughout the season, and the Rangers, Athletics, Angels, and Mariners get a new team to beat up on.
After playing in a poor NL Central division, the Astros now move to an AL West division that is much better, and sadly, their team seems to be no more improved than it was in 2012. After being the worst team in baseball for the past two seasons, things do not seem to be looking up anywhere in the near future for Houston.
Unless you are a serious baseball fan, you would probably be at a loss if you were asked to name even half of the Astros' lineup. With names like Justin Maxwell, Matt Dominguez, and Chris Carter, it is tough to piece together a batting order for Houston. Carlos Pena is a respectable middle of the order designated hitter, and Jose Altuve is a nice second baseman, but aside from that, there is nothing much to be excited about when you look at Houston's lineup.
As if an uninspiring lineup weren't enough, things only get worse when you look at the Astros' starting rotation. Bud Norris is far from a #1 starter, but he heads Houston's rotation, and with guys like Lucas Harrell and Brad Peacock behind him, it is really tough to see this rotation being anything better than below-average.
As far as the bullpen goes? Well, that isn't exactly a strong point either. The best relief pitcher on the team in 2012, Wilton Lopez, is gone, and the bullpen now consists of mostly unknowns. Jose Veras could possibly be an average closer, but that might be asking a lot.
I have heard many people predict that this team could actually challenge the 1962 Mets for the worst regular season record of all time, when the Mets went 42-120. I have a hard time believing that the Astros will reach depths that low, but with the way this team looks now, it will take a miracle for them to finish anywhere above last place in the AL West, and anything better than 30th out of 30 teams should be considered a success. Sorry, Houston fans.
No comments:
Post a Comment